Bust Me Blackjack
February 21st, 2012 at 9:46:54 AM
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I saw this game at Freddie's Club in Fife, a card room in Washington. Of course, this games goes against the commandment "Thy shall not hedge thy bets," but I'm interested in knowing what the take is. Also, are there any cardrooms in the Tacoma area that offer 2D BJ H17, DAS, RSA, LS like they do at New Phoenix in La Center?
February 21st, 2012 at 10:31:33 AM
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Might help if you gave the pay table:
12‐‐‐‐‐‐2 to 1
13‐‐‐‐‐‐3 to 2
14‐‐‐‐‐‐1 to 1
15‐‐‐‐‐‐1 to 2
16‐‐‐‐‐‐1 to 2
12‐‐‐‐‐‐2 to 1
13‐‐‐‐‐‐3 to 2
14‐‐‐‐‐‐1 to 1
15‐‐‐‐‐‐1 to 2
16‐‐‐‐‐‐1 to 2
February 21st, 2012 at 2:39:44 PM
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Oops sorry. I thought I had provided the link to the Washington St Gaming Commission website.
http://www.wsgc.wa.gov/docs/game_rules/bust_me_blackjack.pdf
Thanks for the comment.
http://www.wsgc.wa.gov/docs/game_rules/bust_me_blackjack.pdf
Thanks for the comment.
February 21st, 2012 at 6:26:42 PM
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So the only bust card for a
12 is 4 bust cards vs 9 non-bust cards
13 is 5 vs 8
14 is 6 vs 7
15 is 7 vs 6
16 is 8 vs 5
seems to me that a heavy deck would favour this bet. Is your bet capped by your current blackjack bet? If not, you might be able to get a more significant advantage with a heavy deck. If it is, then the best case scenario would be an insurance bet (say against a dealer 10), which is obviously foolish.
12 is 4 bust cards vs 9 non-bust cards
13 is 5 vs 8
14 is 6 vs 7
15 is 7 vs 6
16 is 8 vs 5
seems to me that a heavy deck would favour this bet. Is your bet capped by your current blackjack bet? If not, you might be able to get a more significant advantage with a heavy deck. If it is, then the best case scenario would be an insurance bet (say against a dealer 10), which is obviously foolish.
February 21st, 2012 at 7:13:43 PM
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This looks like a very countable game. With a TC of +3 or more, I would jump at least on the 12 and 13 with the maximum bet (and, probably, get backed off :)).
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
February 21st, 2012 at 9:36:04 PM
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I calculated the following house edges
Value HE
12 -0.076923077
13 -0.038461538
14 -0.076923077
15 -0.192307692
16 -0.076923077
Can someone verify this.
To me it seems the best way to gain an advantage on the game would be if it were allowed in single deck with a full table.
By comparing the bust cards showing vs non bust cards shown, you could turn it into advantage play. Also sitting in the late position could also be advantageous...
Value HE
12 -0.076923077
13 -0.038461538
14 -0.076923077
15 -0.192307692
16 -0.076923077
Can someone verify this.
To me it seems the best way to gain an advantage on the game would be if it were allowed in single deck with a full table.
By comparing the bust cards showing vs non bust cards shown, you could turn it into advantage play. Also sitting in the late position could also be advantageous...
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:14:42 AM
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I agree with the table above, provided infinite decks are used.
In a two-deck game I get the following results.
Note the large difference for the 16. That is because two bust cards have already been removed and given to the player, making a bust less likely.
Here is my write up on this on my Odds site.
In a two-deck game I get the following results.
| Total | Prob bust | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.308453 | 2 | -0.074642 |
| 13 | 0.385154 | 1.5 | -0.037115 |
| 14 | 0.461451 | 1 | -0.077099 |
| 15 | 0.537582 | 0.5 | -0.193627 |
| 16 | 0.607843 | 0.5 | -0.088235 |
Note the large difference for the 16. That is because two bust cards have already been removed and given to the player, making a bust less likely.
Here is my write up on this on my Odds site.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 22nd, 2012 at 5:56:32 PM
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Thanks Wiz,
So if I was to bet it, without counting, the best bet would be on a 13, with a 3.7% HE. If this was offered on a double deck with counting does anyone ever think this could become a positive expectation wager?
So if I was to bet it, without counting, the best bet would be on a 13, with a 3.7% HE. If this was offered on a double deck with counting does anyone ever think this could become a positive expectation wager?
February 22nd, 2012 at 5:58:43 PM
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Quote: johann528Thanks Wiz,
So if I was to bet it, without counting, the best bet would be on a 13, with a 3.7% HE. If this was offered on a double deck with counting does anyone ever think this could become a positive expectation wager?
Yes and yes. This would be easily countable. I think with just 50% penetration in a double-deck game the advantages would be much greater than conventional blackjack.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
