Oddity in Super Bingo
February 17th, 2012 at 8:57:54 PM
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My university holds a Bingo event each semester where students have the opportunity to win an array of prizes ranging from ipods to sports tickets to even laptops and spring break vacation trips. I attended the event with my cross country team, which consists of 18 guys. According to the host, there were 1500-1600 people at the event. There were 30 rounds of Bingo, and out of these 30 rounds our group of 18 had 4 winners (myself included, winning an Xbox!) Even more crazy, three of us were sitting next to each other. Anybody know the probabilities of these events, I am still shocked at how unlikely this must have been statistically speaking.
February 17th, 2012 at 9:19:41 PM
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I'm sure MathExtremist will correct me but here's what I came up with.
18 people out of 1600 is a 98.875% chance of not winning a single round. There were 30 rounds, divide by 4 since your group won four times so you would have to win once every, let's round it to 8 games. Chances of not winning in 8 games for your group is roughly 91.35% or 8.65% chance of winning. Chances of that happening 4 times in a row is quite small, like .0056% or about 1 chance in 18,000.
18 people out of 1600 is a 98.875% chance of not winning a single round. There were 30 rounds, divide by 4 since your group won four times so you would have to win once every, let's round it to 8 games. Chances of not winning in 8 games for your group is roughly 91.35% or 8.65% chance of winning. Chances of that happening 4 times in a row is quite small, like .0056% or about 1 chance in 18,000.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
February 17th, 2012 at 9:45:04 PM
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Quote: s2dbakerI'm sure MathExtremist will correct me but here's what I came up with.
18 people out of 1600 is a 98.875% chance of not winning a single round. There were 30 rounds, divide by 4 since your group won four times so you would have to win once every, let's round it to 8 games. Chances of not winning in 8 games for your group is roughly 91.35% or 8.65% chance of winning. Chances of that happening 4 times in a row is quite small, like .0056% or about 1 chance in 18,000.
Wow! Thanks for the math, I actually took discrete probability last semester but I'm an accounting guy so it's tough for me. Our group brought home an Ipad, Xbox, $100 itunes giftcard and package of DVD's. I guess that's why we pay $52,000 a year for college, but that's a whole different debate. Still pretty excited to see that happen though, I would say I should buy a Powerball ticket, but I've tried that before and it just doesn't work.
February 18th, 2012 at 3:16:27 AM
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combin(30,4)*(18/1600)^4*(1-(18/1600))^26 = 0.0003271.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 19th, 2012 at 11:25:55 PM
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Quote: Wizardcombin(30,4)*(18/1600)^4*(1-(18/1600))^26 = 0.0003271.
Thanks Wizard! Wow! That calculation reminds me too much of my discrete probability final, I think i'll stick to the accounting. I'm going to try to sell the x-box on Ebay or my campus forum, add a little bit of money to my bankroll for blackjack. Thanks for the math!
