P90
P90
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February 3rd, 2011 at 3:18:43 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

2. Sometimes the increment on a payoff pretty much forces the house to charge a high vig, or no vig at all. If you had a roulette wheel with only ten numbers (I believe there is a French game that is like that--"boule" or something?), then if you wanted to pay less than true odds on a single number, you'd have to pay 8-1 (or less) rather than 9-1, resulting in an 11% HE.


Isn't that 10%, per 8*.1+(-1)*.9=-.1? But anyway, I don't think it's actually impossible to make just about any game to provide a decent (or indecent) EV.
In this case, for instance, you could make subsequent hits on the same [wrong] number result in a push - that way, the return would go from 90% to a full 99% on all but the first spin, with no change in how the game is played. Returning half the bet would provide 94.5%, similar to 00 roulette. And then there is the whole range of bonus payouts that could be played around with. For instance, paying 16 to 1 for hitting two in a row (+.8%), et cetera. Or 'consolation' pushes if you want to avoid big payoffs.
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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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February 4th, 2011 at 8:40:51 AM permalink
Another reason, which I don't think has been mentioned: side bets are almost always proprietary and patented, so the casino has to pay money to lease them. If the side bet doesn't significantly improve the drop and win on the table, beyond what would be considered noise or typical fluctuations, then the casino won't keep paying for it and out it goes.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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March 1st, 2011 at 8:14:39 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
goatcabin
goatcabin
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March 2nd, 2011 at 11:34:18 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

There are two reasons for the fact that side bets are usually crappy:
(snip)
2. Sometimes the increment on a payoff pretty much forces the house to charge a high vig, or no vig at all. If you had a roulette wheel with only ten numbers (I believe there is a French game that is like that--"boule" or something?), then if you wanted to pay less than true odds on a single number, you'd have to pay 8-1 (or less) rather than 9-1, resulting in an 11% HE. Similarly, it would be pretty hard to construct a decent payoff for, say, hard ten, which with 8 losers and 1 winner, has to pay 7-1 or worse to make a profit for the house.



As someone has posted, the general rule in craps is "the higher the variance, the higher the HA". mkl explains this in #1. One of the big exceptions to this general rule, the Any 7 bet, is an example of #2. The true odds against the seven are 5:1, but the casino is not going to pay true odds; with no half- or quarter-dollar chips, 4:1 is the next "step down". This results in an HA of 16.67%, but the SD is only 1.86 times the amount of the bet, compared to over 5 times for the 30:1 bets.
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buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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April 7th, 2011 at 2:38:12 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Another reason, which I don't think has been mentioned: side bets are almost always proprietary and patented, so the casino has to pay money to lease them. If the side bet doesn't significantly improve the drop and win on the table, beyond what would be considered noise or typical fluctuations, then the casino won't keep paying for it and out it goes.



A perfect example of this would be the 20+ Streak tables in Blackhawk from about 1999 to 2009. I believe the fee was only in the
$500 monthly range. In early 2010 the limits in Colorado were raised from $5 to $100. On my last visit there was only 1 streak
table in Blackhawk.
P90
P90
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April 7th, 2011 at 4:39:29 PM permalink
Quote: goatcabin

As someone has posted, the general rule in craps is "the higher the variance, the higher the HA".


It's not just in craps. In general, starting from Blackjack and progressing up to craps, roulette, slots and ultimately keno, the higher the potential payout, the higher the house edge.
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buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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April 7th, 2011 at 5:14:53 PM permalink
Quote: P90

It's not just in craps. In general, starting from Blackjack and progressing up to craps, roulette, slots and ultimately keno, the higher the potential payout, the higher the house edge.



Then perhaps by changing that fact may be the way to stop the decline of BJ in general.
PerpetualNewbie
PerpetualNewbie
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June 6th, 2011 at 11:43:45 AM permalink
Quote: P90

It's not just in craps. In general, starting from Blackjack and progressing up to craps, roulette, slots and ultimately keno, the higher the potential payout, the higher the house edge.



Ding. In a casino, you buy variance with expected value.
Ravzar
Ravzar
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July 11th, 2011 at 8:56:37 PM permalink
Side bets ensure casinos don't just close down low house edge games like spanish 21 which often have a lower HE than blackjack. The perfect pairs side bets on that rake in thousands per night at my local casino. Asians bet $25 per hand on it. Because everyone is playing it (except me) people win all the time that night but it is a huge profit for the casino. They are more than happy to keep the game open for that. I am often seen as the fool when I haven't put on a perfect pairs side bet and I get pairs that would pay out 25-1 (or 30-1 in blackjack). However, I try to explain that if I was betting the side bet every hand I would lose in the long run. In many cases, the eventual win I would have gotten wouldn't have covered my losses for not getting a pair in the last 1 hour of playing. Sometimes people get pairs and say wow it's paying off but non suited different coloured pairs only pay 5-1... terrible terrible side bet. I once saw a lady win 30-1 three times in 4 hours though for $750 per time... dam her and her non statistical expectation winnings.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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July 11th, 2011 at 9:51:04 PM permalink
" Ding. In a casino, you buy variance with expected value. " That can be changed !

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