State Keno Math

Right now I am living in New York City, which is full of 24/7 delis where you can buy lottery tickets. However, I just learned today that the New York Lottery also offers a Keno game, though it is not called Keno but rather Quick Draw (the pay tables can be found at this link by the way).

I found that the worst option was 1-spot Keno option, with an RTP of 50%, while the "best" option, 5-spot, had a RTP of ~60.32%.

Interestingly, there is an option to spend an additional amount equal to the original wager in order have a chance at a bonus multiplier. From what I could calculate, the average multiplier is about 2.001%, making it worth it (which surprised me).

Additionally there are some other drawing games like "money dots" that the New York government does that I haven't analyzed yet.

Has anyone attempted to use math to find the house edges for various state-run keno / lottery games? While this type of math is within our area of study, I assume most people here consider it a waste of time to analyze due to the extremely high house edge.

Edit: changed terminology to make this more understandable

I just checked out of curiosity and found that Money Dots, which is connected to the Keno that happens every four minutes, has an equal house edge of around 60% RTP.

In contrast, the New York Pick 10 jackpot (which is basically 10-spot Keno but only once a day) has an RTP around 50%. Other daily or twice-daily drawings that I looked at had an either 48% or 50% RTP. I am surprised that anyone plays these, but now I am tempted to try it for just 50¢.

Does New York treat as public information how many tickets of a series have been sold and how many of the large prizes have already been awarded? You can occasionally find a +EV situation that way.

Yes I was just looking at the scratch offs on their website.

I would be really surprised if there was a +EV situation in New York State as the couple scratch offs I calculated had around a 64% house edge.

It would be surprising, and rare, and would only happen when the series is close to running out. Just luck that there would be a lot of big winners left.

Quote: harris

I just checked out of curiosity and found that Money Dots, which is connected to the Keno that happens every four minutes, has an equal house edge of around 60% RTP.

In contrast, the New York Pick 10 jackpot (which is basically 10-spot Keno but only once a day) has an RTP around 50%. Other daily or twice-daily drawings that I looked at had an either 48% or 50% RTP. I am surprised that anyone plays these, but now I am tempted to try it for just 50¢.
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How else can the downtrodden get rich?

Checking the Ohio Lottery and up popped a Keno game. Pick 4 numbers and select a denomination. Win up to $79 at $1, $395 at $5, or $790 with $10 (with a progressive as shown in the photo), but otherwise thought to be $400 instead of $800 for 4 out of 4 for $10. RTP is over 70% for all three denominations. Very cheap payouts for less than 4 out of 4. You'll get a tax form for cashing in $600+.

https://www.ohiolottery.com/games/touch-n-win/4-spot-keno

I kind of like the Pick 3 game in NYS. Doesn't say what the RTP is. This game goes back decades. For a $1 you won't win more than $500. I'm guessing RTP isn't over 50%.
https://ny.pick-3.com/odds-and-prizes

I'll give you a hint on how to find the RTP of the Pick 3 games

You divide the "Prize" by the "Odds"

Anyways they are all either 48% or 50% RTP depending on the play type.

In AZ all lottery games (that I have looked into including draw and scratchers) have an RTP/EV of 50%. In case there's any subtle difference it's stated that 50% of sales revenue goes to winners.

I find it sad and pathetic that the "odds of winning" are only openly stated as "1 in 28" (for example, varies by game of course). Anyone who claims that it's not a racket to exploit the poor and ignorant masses, explain why the EV or RTP % is buried in the fine print.

I understand that is meant sarcastically.

But at least that is true for multimillion dollar lotteries that cost $1. I'd argue that it offers some ray of hope for otherwise hopeless people and that is at least a plausible social benefit.

But scratchers offer no chance of changing your life circumstances and merely burn 50% of what you pay to play. And yet they are most popular with the down trodden. I find that mortally repugnant.

Quote: harris

Yes I was just looking at the scratch offs on their website.

I would be really surprised if there was a +EV situation in New York State as the couple scratch offs I calculated had around a 64% house edge.
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Hey here's a potential project for you on your site: scrape the data from the state lottery sites where they announce the instant lottery wins and you can calculate and provide the approximate edge given that information.

Quote: dcjohn

In AZ all lottery games (that I have looked into including draw and scratchers) have an RTP/EV of 50%. In case there's any subtle difference it's stated that 50% of sales revenue goes to winners.

I find it sad and pathetic that the "odds of winning" are only openly stated as "1 in 28" (for example, varies by game of course). Anyone who claims that it's not a racket to exploit the poor and ignorant masses, explain why the EV or RTP % is buried in the fine print.
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Not to defend state lotteries, but there are no games in a casino where they tell you the RTP.

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