Roulette - # of spins
November 18th, 2023 at 4:58:51 PM
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Quote: darkoz
Casinos are so scared of losing on single zero that instead of just removing them they put $100 minimum so they can lose huge to a whale instead.
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Yeah, Indian casinos are renowned for appealing to whales. Those pesky whales, they love them Indian joints with them single single zero wheels. What freaking planet are you from.. LOL They don't have them because they are greedy and they just can't stand the thought of just one zero. Even though they would get triple the play and triple the hold at the end of the shift, they still won't do it. The few single zero wheels that I ever saw in Vegas were never open during the week because the minimum was too high. And when they were open they had very few players and I never saw a single whale as one of them. Whales play in the high limit room, duh..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 18th, 2023 at 5:11:08 PM
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Dude you haven't any idea about the over all conditions of Indian casinos, or non Indian casinos. You are just guessing and making comments based on individual reports of people online. You haven't a clue about B&M casino conditions in the USA.Quote: EvenBobQuote: darkoz
Casinos are so scared of losing on single zero that instead of just removing them they put $100 minimum so they can lose huge to a whale instead.
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Yeah, Indian casinos are renowned for appealing to whales. Those pesky whales, they love them Indian joints with them single single zero wheels. What freaking planet are you from.. LOL They don't have them because they are greedy and they just can't stand the thought of just one zero. Even though they would get triple the play and triple the hold at the end of the shift, they still won't do it. The few single zero wheels that I ever saw in Vegas were never open during the week because the minimum was too high. And when they were open they had very few players and I never saw a single whale as one of them. Whales play in the high limit room, duh..
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 18th, 2023 at 5:12:39 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: darkoz
Casinos are so scared of losing on single zero that instead of just removing them they put $100 minimum so they can lose huge to a whale instead.
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Yeah, Indian casinos are renowned for appealing to whales. Those pesky whales, they love them Indian joints with them single single zero wheels. What freaking planet are you from.. LOL They don't have them because they are greedy and they just can't stand the thought of just one zero. Even though they would get triple the play and triple the hold at the end of the shift, they still won't do it. The few single zero wheels that I ever saw in Vegas were never open during the week because the minimum was too high. And when they were open they had very few players and I never saw a single whale as one of them. Whales play in the high limit room, duh..
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Remind me of the last time you gambled in Las Vegas?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
November 18th, 2023 at 5:16:34 PM
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Quote: billryan
Remind me of the last time you gambled in Las Vegas?
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Or a B&M casino at all?
Aut inveniam viam aut faciam
November 18th, 2023 at 5:29:47 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfDude you haven't any idea about the over all conditions of Indian casinos,
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All I know is I've been going to Indian casinos since the mid 90s and I've never once seen a single zero wheel. Maybe they all have them now, I haven't been to one since 2019. All I can tell you is what I know. So clue me in what am I missing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 18th, 2023 at 5:31:23 PM
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Quote: billryan
Remind me of the last time you gambled in Las Vegas?
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The last time I looked for a single zero wheel in Vegas was probably 2014. I think it was at the MGM and it wasn't open. I don't care, I'm never going to Vegas again anyway why would I. I have everything I need in my office.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 18th, 2023 at 7:09:43 PM
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I've been a roulette AP for well over 30 years.
I'll tell you like it really is.
The single zero wheels weren't very good for AP because they didn't get enough action and were maintained at a higher level than the double zero wheel.. The double zero wheels were excellent for exploiting. Especially in Las Vegas, right in the middle of the strip. Tourist central. Casinos assumed that they were a carnival game and ignored maintenance on them.
Someone mentioned the RRS. The RRS introduced new problems to the randomness of the wheel, actually causing some bias. Most RRS systems were inefficient, expensive, and reacted too late to affect a persistent AP player. A nifty idea, that created more problems than it solved. It also made the paranoid regular players believe that the game was rigged against them, so they started avoiding them. They were a great way to drive players away from the game while attracting APs.
I'll tell you like it really is.
The single zero wheels weren't very good for AP because they didn't get enough action and were maintained at a higher level than the double zero wheel.. The double zero wheels were excellent for exploiting. Especially in Las Vegas, right in the middle of the strip. Tourist central. Casinos assumed that they were a carnival game and ignored maintenance on them.
Someone mentioned the RRS. The RRS introduced new problems to the randomness of the wheel, actually causing some bias. Most RRS systems were inefficient, expensive, and reacted too late to affect a persistent AP player. A nifty idea, that created more problems than it solved. It also made the paranoid regular players believe that the game was rigged against them, so they started avoiding them. They were a great way to drive players away from the game while attracting APs.
November 19th, 2023 at 2:58:53 AM
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Are you doing this for amusement or profit?Quote: eagle4xI'll scale down the bet significantly and see how it goes before putting $320 on the line:
Total bet will be $70, so any hit on 3 uncovered numbers loses $70, but hit on any of the remaining covered numbers wins $4.
So, my new goal per day will be $24 (6 spins x $4).
I will increase the bet progressively over a period of weeks to see how the system is working out before working up to $320 total bet.
I realize this doesn't change the probability of losing the entire bet, but better to lose $70 than $320.
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What is your bet placement going to be? Single or Double zero roulette?
Your maths looks wrong.
37 Numbers: Place $2 on each of 35 of them with your $70 leaving 2 numbers uncovered. Or did you mean cover 34 numbers and have $2 left over?
Assuming the latter, it would take (68/4) = 17 spins to replenish your bankroll by $68, but you would lose $68, one time in (3/37)=12.33 spins
Do you see the problem there? You bust out by $68 more often than you profit by $68
If your objective is 6 wins = $24 per session, and you are going to tend to wipe out $68 once in every 12.33 spins, that's roughly one wipeout every two sessions.
Lose $68 roughly every two sessions if you hit one losing spin, or profit $48 if you don't. There's nothing to stop you losing the first 1, 2, 3 or more spins straight after each time of topping up your bankroll from the ATM.
I.E. IT'S A LOSING SYSTEM. THEY ALL ARE!
Unfortunately, if you try this, you will most likely get a few dollars ahead at first and have a few winning sessions and it will convince you that you are on to something.
You are NOT onto something. Well, apart from an amusing way to lose money.
For single zero roulette, excluding La Partege bets, you will tend to lose 2.7% of $68 = £1.84 per spin, or $11.04 per session of 6 spins, over the course of a number of spins..
I don't suppose you bothered to learn about La Partege!!!! System players seldom do.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Nov 19, 2023
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 19th, 2023 at 7:56:02 AM
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Quote: OnceDear
For single zero roulette, excluding La Partege bets, you will tend to lose 2.7% of $68 = £1.84 per spin, or $11.04 per session of 6 spins, over the course of a number of spins..
If only it worked that way in the short term. In actual play you will lose your money much much faster than that. If the percentages you mentioned held true for every spin you can make $100 last for hours and hours and hours. As it turns out the truth is somewhat more glaring. Those percentages only affect the extreme long-term, it's not unusual for a player to go through $500 in a couple of hours or even less depending on if he's betting bigger. One way to find out, play roulette with $100 using any system you think is good and completely separate your winnings from what's left on the table of the$100. When that's gone see how much winnings you have. It's either going to be more than $100 which is really good, or more likely it's going to be way less than $100. Because in short-term play those percentages you mentioned have nothing to do with anything. You say 'over the course of a number of spins' it's actually over the course of a huge number of spins. I believe the average hold for a roulette table at the end of the day is about 18%. That means that of all the money people wagered the casino keeps 18% of it. Far far more than the house edge.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 19th, 2023 at 8:19:59 AM
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Of all the money wagered, the casino keeps the house edge percentageQuote: EvenBob[I believe the average hold for a roulette table at the end of the day is about 18%. That means that of all the money people wagered the casino keeps 18% of it. Far far more than the house edge.
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Hold is a percentage of buy-in. If the hold is three times the edge that means the average guy plays through three times his buy-in amount
It’s all about making that GTA
November 19th, 2023 at 8:51:40 AM
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exactly. You beat me to it. That any roulette player could not know why table hold is much higher than house edge amazes me. Players will generally have some wins and some losses, broadly as expected from the house edge. They then stay and cycle their buy in until they lose it. The guy that plays his $100 buy in will get his X number of hours by recycling and rewagering. It's not unusual to see the punter push half or more of his bankroll onto the felt at every spin. It's no wonder they bust out quickly. When they get lucky and get ahead, they may push out much more than their original buy in.Quote: Ace2Of all the money wagered, the casino keeps the house edge percentageQuote: EvenBob[I believe the average hold for a roulette table at the end of the day is about 18%. That means that of all the money people wagered the casino keeps 18% of it. Far far more than the house edge.
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Hold is a percentage of buy-in. If the hold is three times the edge that means the average guy plays through three times his buy-in amount
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And before EB mentions 'win and leave, there's plenty who don't win and still have to leave without profit
Last edited by: OnceDear on Nov 19, 2023
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 19th, 2023 at 8:55:13 AM
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Quote: OnceDearexactly. You beat me to it. That any roulette player could not know why table hold is much higher than house edge amazes me. Players will generally have some wins and some losses, broadly as expected from the house edge. They then stay and cycle their buy in until they lose it. The guy that plays his $100 buy in will get his X number of hours by recycling and rewagering.Quote: Ace2Of all the money wagered, the casino keeps the house edge percentageQuote: EvenBob[I believe the average hold for a roulette table at the end of the day is about 18%. That means that of all the money people wagered the casino keeps 18% of it. Far far more than the house edge.
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Hold is a percentage of buy-in. If the hold is three times the edge that means the average guy plays through three times his buy-in amount
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EB is a roulette player?
I'm starting to doubt even those claims. He thinks all 18 numbers at red win simultaneously.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
November 19th, 2023 at 9:38:03 AM
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Quote: OnceDearPlayers will generally have some wins and some losses, broadly as expected from the house edge. They then stay and cycle their buy in until they lose it.
Over a long long period of time. Players will generally have some wins and some losses? In the short term, say in the hour that they are playing, those wins and losses can be gigantic and the house edge is nowhere to be seen. It is very common for somebody to come up to the table and buy in for $100 make five $20 bets on five spins and lose every one. Get out another $100 bill and do it again. Get out another $100 bill and do it again. You see this over and over and over. Then they just wander away. Where's the house edge for this guy? You see it in blackjack, you see it in every game. The house edge manifests itself over a very long period of time. The house edge affects the casino far more than it affects the player. And even then a casino can still have a losing quarter on a particular game. Where's the house edge for them when that happens. It shows up at the end of the year, after thousands and thousands and thousands of bets have been made. You seem to think it effects every single game and every single bet. That's just ridiculous.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 19th, 2023 at 10:05:46 AM
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oh so wrong I. Your interpretation of house edge and how it manifests. Noone said that it presents itself as a 2.7% tax or fee on each spin. Edge is NOT an effect. It's a cause.Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDearPlayers will generally have some wins and some losses, broadly as expected from the house edge. They then stay and cycle their buy in until they lose it.
Over a long long period of time. Players will generally have some wins and some losses? In the short term, say in the hour that they are playing, those wins and losses can be gigantic and the house edge is nowhere to be seen. It is very common for somebody to come up to the table and buy in for $100 make five $20 bets on five spins and lose every one. Get out another $100 bill and do it again. Get out another $100 bill and do it again. You see this over and over and over. Then they just wander away. Where's the house edge for this guy? You see it in blackjack, you see it in every game. The house edge manifests itself over a very long period of time. The house edge affects the casino far more than it affects the player. And even then a casino can still have a losing quarter on a particular game. Where's the house edge for them when that happens. It shows up at the end of the year, after thousands and thousands and thousands of bets have been made. You seem to think it effects every single game and every single bet. That's just ridiculous.
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Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 19th, 2023 at 10:06:56 AM
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The only way a casino has a losing quarter on roulette is if some whale comes in and gets lucky. If you have been playing for as many year's ans as much as you would have us believe and you mostly play even money bets ans mostly flat bet then you are close enough to the long run. Many short term sessions make it the long run. All you -EV guys love to think the long run takes 10 of millions of spins to be in the long run. Regardless of how many spins it takes to be exactly at the HA it doesn't take long for the HA to start kicking in on even money bets, you might not be losing 2.7% but there's -.1 -2.7 .Quote: EvenBobQuote: OnceDearPlayers will generally have some wins and some losses, broadly as expected from the house edge. They then stay and cycle their buy in until they lose it.
Over a long long period of time. Players will generally have some wins and some losses? In the short term, say in the hour that they are playing, those wins and losses can be gigantic and the house edge is nowhere to be seen. It is very common for somebody to come up to the table and buy in for $100 make five $20 bets on five spins and lose every one. Get out another $100 bill and do it again. Get out another $100 bill and do it again. You see this over and over and over. Then they just wander away. Where's the house edge for this guy? You see it in blackjack, you see it in every game. The house edge manifests itself over a very long period of time. The house edge affects the casino far more than it affects the player. And even then a casino can still have a losing quarter on a particular game. Where's the house edge for them when that happens. It shows up at the end of the year, after thousands and thousands and thousands of bets have been made. You seem to think it effects every single game and every single bet. That's just ridiculous.
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 19th, 2023 at 10:50:14 AM
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Single zero roulette with half-bet returned on zero (edge 1.35%) could be beaten by variance over the medium term
Double zero roulette (5.3%) cannot be beaten. Not even for a week
Triple zero isn’t even a game IMO. It’s robbery
Double zero roulette (5.3%) cannot be beaten. Not even for a week
Triple zero isn’t even a game IMO. It’s robbery
It’s all about making that GTA
November 19th, 2023 at 11:19:02 AM
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Such a sweeping statement opens the door to our resident fantasists, portraying a range of greys as simple binary blacks and whites.Quote: Ace2Single zero roulette with half-bet returned on zero (edge 1.35%) could be beaten by variance over the medium term
Double zero roulette (5.3%) cannot be beaten. Not even for a week
Triple zero isn’t even a game IMO. It’s robbery
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Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 19th, 2023 at 12:15:57 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfMany short term sessions make it the long run..
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Many? That's the understatement of the century. You won't live long enough even if you play every day to be in the long run. This whole argument over the house edge affecting you in any way is ridiculous. No wonder you people can't beat any casino game it's in your head that you're beaten before you begin. Even Steve Wynn has said that the house edge only affects the casino and not the player. It effects the PLAYERS over a period of time in favor of the casino but that's over thousands of players making thousands of bets per year. He has said it's not uncommon to have a losing quarter in roulette, or any casino table game because all it takes is a few players to get lucky and throw off the math. He says at the end of the year it always evens out in favor of the casino but in the short term play by play day by day basis, the house edge has no effect whatsoever on the player. How could it. All you have to do is watch people play to know this is true. I know it's true because I beat the casino every single time I play. Laugh, scoff, mock and ridicule all you like, bottom line is I'm winning and you're not. And a lot of the reason for that is you don't think you can win. You're beaten before you even start.
Bob oh Bob, you'll say, you poor deluded fool. Somebody's deluded here but I can tell you for absolute fact it ain't me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 19th, 2023 at 12:26:37 PM
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Steve Wynn is dead wrong
Obviously a single player will have to play much longer than a corporate casino conglomerate to have reasonable confidence that results will approach expectations. Because the casino is making thousands more bets per hour than the individual and does so 24/7/365. That’s elementary level statistics.
Try playing single zero, half-bet refund roulette for a weekend then do the same with triple zero. You’ll see a big difference, just in a couple days play. You’ll win some weekends playing 0 but you will never ever have a winning weekend playing 000. The house edge is very real
Obviously a single player will have to play much longer than a corporate casino conglomerate to have reasonable confidence that results will approach expectations. Because the casino is making thousands more bets per hour than the individual and does so 24/7/365. That’s elementary level statistics.
Try playing single zero, half-bet refund roulette for a weekend then do the same with triple zero. You’ll see a big difference, just in a couple days play. You’ll win some weekends playing 0 but you will never ever have a winning weekend playing 000. The house edge is very real
It’s all about making that GTA
November 19th, 2023 at 12:50:20 PM
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If I play 1,600 roulette spins on a 00 wheel with a 5.26% HA, I can expect to lose 84 spins due to HA. The square root of 1,600 spins is 40 spins, so that's over 2 SD of wins I'd need to make up for the HA of loss.
If I play 1,600 roulette spins on a 0 wheel with a 2.7% HA, I can expect to lose 43 spins due to HA, that's over 1 SD of wins I'd need to make up for the HA of loss.
If I play 1,600 roulette spins with the 1/2 rebate on the single green wheel with a 1.35% HA, I can expect to lose 21.6 spins per 1,600 spins due to HA which is about 1/2 an SD I'd need to make up for the HA of loss.
If I play 1,600 roulette spins on a 0 wheel with a 2.7% HA, I can expect to lose 43 spins due to HA, that's over 1 SD of wins I'd need to make up for the HA of loss.
If I play 1,600 roulette spins with the 1/2 rebate on the single green wheel with a 1.35% HA, I can expect to lose 21.6 spins per 1,600 spins due to HA which is about 1/2 an SD I'd need to make up for the HA of loss.
November 19th, 2023 at 1:31:40 PM
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You need to qualify that by stating which bets it applies to. sd is different for different types of bet.Quote: ChumpChangeIf I play 1,600 roulette spins on a 00 wheel with a 5.26% HA, I can expect to lose 84 spins due to HA. The square root of 1,600 spins is 40 spins, so that's over 2 SD of wins I'd need to make up for the HA of loss.
If I play 1,600 roulette spins on a 0 wheel with a 2.7% HA, I can expect to lose 43 spins due to HA, that's over 1 SD of wins I'd need to make up for the HA of loss.
If I play 1,600 roulette spins with the 1/2 rebate on the single green wheel with a 1.35% HA, I can expect to lose 21.6 spins per 1,600 spins due to HA which is about 1/2 an SD I'd need to make up for the HA of loss.
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Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 19th, 2023 at 1:34:43 PM
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I'll start with even money bets and somebody can clue me in to how I can win to +250 bets by the time I get to 1,600 spins by betting differently.
November 19th, 2023 at 1:39:35 PM
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Quote: ChumpChangeIf I play 1,600 roulette spins on a 00 wheel with a 5.26% HA, I can expect
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It's interesting that you think a paltry 1600 spins even comes close to making a tiny little dent in the LLN. It takes thousands of players making thousands of spins. You know where the edge of roulette is manifesting itself right now? Worldwide in every roulette wheel that's spinning and has been spinning. That's where the house edge is manifesting itself. You placing a bet on red in your local casino is like a fly spec on an elephant's rump in terms of the house edge. You are totally at the mercy of short-term variance and nothing else.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 19th, 2023 at 1:46:55 PM
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I'm talking about the toll the HA takes on my session money personally. (What is LLN?)
BTW, I can count the HA each time a spin comes up with a green number. I don't have to even use mathematics. I can count on my fingers the number of times a zero comes up and that's more to the HA right there. By the time I get to 10 or 20, I'm pretty far down and not likely to make a recovery.
BTW, I can count the HA each time a spin comes up with a green number. I don't have to even use mathematics. I can count on my fingers the number of times a zero comes up and that's more to the HA right there. By the time I get to 10 or 20, I'm pretty far down and not likely to make a recovery.
November 19th, 2023 at 1:57:18 PM
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Quote: ChumpChange(What is LLN)?.
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Long Lasting Nonsense!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
November 19th, 2023 at 4:08:17 PM
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Quote: darkozQuote: ChumpChange(What is LLN)?.
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Long Lasting Nonsense!
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It's the theory of large numbers but they call it a law when it's no such thing. It's a theory not a law by any stretch.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 19th, 2023 at 4:15:57 PM
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If 100 craps gamblers flat bet the 'Any Seven' bet for 740 rolls, only one can be expected to come away a winner. The other 99 will already feel wrath of the house edge. After 1270 rolls, this drops to one expected winner in 1000. After 1830 rolls, this drops to one expected winner in 10,000. 2300 rolls? One in 100,000.
In some parts of Michigan, 740 is considered a big number. It is hard for them to conceive of a gambler making this many bets in a lifetime. This is particularly true if they sometimes wait hours for the table to be playing their game. For the rest of us, the house edge basically guarantees a loss within a day despite what Steve Wynn may have been misinterpreted as having claimed.
The definition of 'the long run' depends on the house edge and the variance of the bet. If the house edge is 100%, then the long run is one bet. The LLN converges after a single wager!.
I have made over 33,000 wagers on one online slot machine in the last 48 hours. I have another 6,000 spins to go before the leaderboard finishes. I sort of feel like I am getting to the long run in one weekend.
In some parts of Michigan, 740 is considered a big number. It is hard for them to conceive of a gambler making this many bets in a lifetime. This is particularly true if they sometimes wait hours for the table to be playing their game. For the rest of us, the house edge basically guarantees a loss within a day despite what Steve Wynn may have been misinterpreted as having claimed.
The definition of 'the long run' depends on the house edge and the variance of the bet. If the house edge is 100%, then the long run is one bet. The LLN converges after a single wager!.
I have made over 33,000 wagers on one online slot machine in the last 48 hours. I have another 6,000 spins to go before the leaderboard finishes. I sort of feel like I am getting to the long run in one weekend.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
November 19th, 2023 at 4:34:04 PM
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I can find no such quote by steve wynn and until EB can link to it I call BS that he ever said it.
The closest was what is below.
The closest was what is below.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
November 19th, 2023 at 4:44:27 PM
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Simulate one million coin flips. I will bet you any amount of money that between 49% and 51% are heads. That’s because even if you do a trillion trillion simulations, you will never get a single one that falls outside of 20 standard deviations. The LLN is not just a theoryQuote: EvenBobQuote: darkozQuote: ChumpChange(What is LLN)?.
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Long Lasting Nonsense!
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It's the theory of large numbers but they call it a law when it's no such thing. It's a theory not a law by any stretch.
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It’s all about making that GTA
November 19th, 2023 at 4:46:41 PM
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Quote: MentalIf 100 craps gamblers flat bet the 'Any Seven' bet for 740 rolls, only one can be expected to come away a winner. The other 99 will already feel wrath of the house edge. After 1270 rolls, this drops to one expected winner in 1000. After 1830 rolls, this drops to one expected winner in 10,000. 2300 rolls? One in 100,000.
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Hi,
It would be enlightening if you had those stats for, say Red/Black on European Roulette with la Partage. Mentioning Craps somewhat detracted from the point, opening the door to trolls.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 19th, 2023 at 4:56:02 PM
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Quote: EvenBob
It's the theory of large numbers but they call it a law when it's no such thing. It's a theory not a law by any stretch.
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It's NOT a theory. It is a THEOREM
Theory provides ways to explain, perceive, measure, calculate, and explore a subject. A theorem is a conclusion derived from accepted truths, which may include some theories. Both theory and theorem are based on axioms, logic, and reasoning. A theorem, as a conclusion, can usually be proven or disproven unambiguously. On the other hand, a theory, as a model or system, typically involves numerous axioms, logic, and reasoning, with some conclusions that might be impossible to experimentally prove or observe at the time of its publication.
In mathematics, a theorem is a statement that has been proved, or can be proved. The proof of a theorem is a logical argument that uses the inference rules of a deductive system to establish that the theorem is a logical consequence of the axioms and previously proved theorems.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 19th, 2023 at 6:57:45 PM
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Quote: darkozI can find no such quote by steve wynn and until EB can link to it I call BS that he ever said it.
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I looked for it too. It was quite a while ago back when he opened the Wynn Casino around 2006 and he was talking about how you get a loan from the bank to open a new casino. It was in an article in Las Vegas publication. He talked about the house edge and how you presented the math to the bank and showed them with absolutely no doubt that every year the casino was going to make a profit. That's when he went into detail about how you can lose money in a quarter, and about how the edge effects all the players to the casinos benefit but it doesn't affect a player on a day by day play-by-play basis. He's given so many interviews. That article had a big effect on me because it was coming from Steve Wynn. That article was right after the casino he used to own, the Golden Nugget, the new owners lost 8.7 million in a quarter because they upped their betting limits and a whale took them for 8 million dollars and left the casino and lost the money on the Strip. As I remember that's why they had to sell after a year of ownership because they couldn't cover that loss without going bankrupt. They had that reality TV show that was on for a while filmed at the Golden Nugget.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 19th, 2023 at 7:06:37 PM
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It doesn't take long at all for an even money coin flip like bets to see negative results on roulette (I believe OD rans some sims) LLN are only needed when calculating a perfect % payback/HA. Again, you don't need hundreds of thousands + trials on the type of bets you are claiming in order to get close to the HA.Quote: EvenBobQuote: ChumpChangeIf I play 1,600 roulette spins on a 00 wheel with a 5.26% HA, I can expect
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It's interesting that you think a paltry 1600 spins even comes close to making a tiny little dent in the LLN. It takes thousands of players making thousands of spins. You know where the edge of roulette is manifesting itself right now? Worldwide in every roulette wheel that's spinning and has been spinning. That's where the house edge is manifesting itself. You placing a bet on red in your local casino is like a fly spec on an elephant's rump in terms of the house edge. You are totally at the mercy of short-term variance and nothing else.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but you are playing a roulette game with a 2.7 % HA?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 19th, 2023 at 7:11:41 PM
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Quote: OnceDear
It's NOT a theory. It is a THEOREM
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Whatever, it's still not a law.
"The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is considered a theorem in probability theory, not a law in the sense of a fundamental principle of nature."
In either case, it's still does not affect in any way shape or form short-term play as we've gone over again and again and again.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 19th, 2023 at 7:42:17 PM
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Does not affect the casino on a day by day play by play basis either. After all, the casino can “lose money in a quarter”. So, by your logic, the edge does not apply to the casino…it’s just a wild crapshoot and anything can happenQuote: EvenBob[That's when he went into detail about how you can lose money in a quarter, and about how the edge effects all the players to the casinos benefit but it doesn't affect a player on a day by day play-by-play basis.
It’s all about making that GTA
November 19th, 2023 at 8:51:42 PM
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Logic has little to do with it.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
November 20th, 2023 at 8:36:35 AM
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Quote: Ace2Does not affect the casino on a day by day play by play basis either.
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Nope. Everything is always in the long term except the hold, which is people reinvesting their winnings. That's very consistent.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 20th, 2023 at 9:39:52 AM
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November 20th, 2023 at 10:39:21 AM
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Quote: EvenBob
Nope. Everything is always in the long term except the hold, which is people reinvesting their winnings. That's very consistent.
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So if the house edge does not affect the player in the short term and it certainly does not affect the casino in the short term, why does everybody keep harping on it. Yes it's absolutely true that the house edge affects every single bet you make but that only applies to the long term. Because of short-term variance on a bet by bet basis anything can happen. This is why a single player can screw up the profits of a game for the casino for an entire quarter by winning too much money. Short-term variance, without it there would be no gambling. It's what causes us to win or lose haphazardly in the short term.
Bob oh Bob you all say, you mouth breathing moronic cretin, you cannot beat the house dge so quit saying you can. The truth is in the short term, not for a week, not for a day, not for an hour, but here and there if you have the right procedure and method you can gain a very short-term edge over the casino. I know this for a fact because I do it everyday. Because short-term variance completely controls casino games in the short term, this lets you slide in and slide out with your own edge for a bet or two. The best way I ever heard it explained was the house edge manifests itself worldwide every minute of the day with thousands of people making thousands of bets. But in the short-term it has no effect on either the casino or the player and anything can happen bet to bet.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 20th, 2023 at 10:49:50 AM
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400 spins on a double zero wheel is probably too much for me.
November 20th, 2023 at 11:15:04 AM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: EvenBob
Nope. Everything is always in the long term except the hold, which is people reinvesting their winnings. That's very consistent.
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So if the house edge does not affect the player in the short term and it certainly does not affect the casino in the short term, why does everybody keep harping on it. Yes it's absolutely true that the house edge affects every single bet you make but that only applies to the long term. Because of short-term variance on a bet by bet basis anything can happen. This is why a single player can screw up the profits of a game for the casino for an entire quarter by winning too much money. Short-term variance, without it there would be no gambling. It's what causes us to win or lose haphazardly in the short term.
Bob oh Bob you all say, you mouth breathing moronic cretin, you cannot beat the house dge so quit saying you can. The truth is in the short term, not for a week, not for a day, not for an hour, but here and there if you have the right procedure and method you can gain a very short-term edge over the casino. I know this for a fact because I do it everyday. Because short-term variance completely controls casino games in the short term, this lets you slide in and slide out with your own edge for a bet or two. The best way I ever heard it explained was the house edge manifests itself worldwide every minute of the day with thousands of people making thousands of bets. But in the short-term it has no effect on either the casino or the player and anything can happen bet to bet.
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The OP eagle4x is no longer responding probably because he realizes you have hijacked his thread with your roulette nonsense.
This is the fifth or sixth EB thread about how you beat roulette by doing things with imaginary math.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
November 20th, 2023 at 11:55:08 AM
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Quote: darkoz
The OP eagle4x is no longer responding probably because he realizes you have hijacked his thread with your roulette nonsense.
This is the fifth or sixth EB thread about how you beat roulette by doing things with imaginary math.
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How do you hijack a roulette thread by talking about roulette. If I'm wrong about any of the points I made please point them out which I see you're not doing. Please point out where my math is imaginary. If you think the house edge in roulette manifests itself on every single bet for the player and for the casino, please make your case. I'm all ears.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 20th, 2023 at 11:56:57 AM
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Quote: darkoz
This is the fifth or sixth EB thread about how you beat roulette by doing things with imaginary math.
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It's like one of those old Abbott and Costello routines where they trick each other with exchanging money or adding up numbers on a chalkboard, only it's not funny or clever and there's no point and you feel like an idiot afterwards for thinking it could even remotely make sense.
November 20th, 2023 at 12:05:10 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIf you think the house edge in roulette manifests itself on every single bet for the player and for the casino, please make your case. I'm all ears.
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"The European roulette house edge is 2.70%, and the formula is 1/37 = .0270 x 100 = 2.70%. Let’s explain that formula:
There are 36 numbers on the roulette wheel, and if it were not for the one green number, the house edge would be 0% with 18 player wins and 18 casino (house) wins. The one green zero tilts the edge to the house of 19/37 (the 36 numbers plus green zero) and 18/37 for the player. You subtract 18/37 from 19/37, which equals 1/37. 37 divided by 1 equals 0.270, and then you multiply 100 to convert to a percentage of 2.7%."
Source
That math is in effect on every single bet you make, because those payouts don't change.
November 20th, 2023 at 12:31:07 PM
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Quote: TigerWu
TigerWu...... Take your own advice my friend. You engaged him again. So he won again!
Quote: TigerWu
"The European roulette house edge is 2.70%, and the formula is 1/37 = .0270 x 100 = 2.70%. Let’s explain that formula:
Source
That math is in effect on every single bet you make, because those payouts don't change.
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Friend, in Euro roulette with La Partege rule, house edge is 1.35%.
Give the troll an inch and he'll take 28,000 miles
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
November 20th, 2023 at 12:35:34 PM
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Quote: OnceDear
You engaged him again. So he won again!
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Yeah, but at least he can't pay the bills with it....
November 20th, 2023 at 12:43:54 PM
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Quote: TigerWu
That math is in effect on every single bet you make, because those payouts don't change.
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Of course it is! But not in the short term only in the long-term! When you make a bet in roulette or any table game do you think you're going to win or lose that bet depending on the house edge? Obviously not. If you make a $100 bet in roulette do you really think you're going to get 95% of that bet back right then on a double zero wheel? Really? Do you think it's going to happen on the next bet, or even in that entire session? No, it's not. It's going to happen in the long run and you'll never even get to the long run. Short-term variance is the only thing that counts in short-term play.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 20th, 2023 at 12:46:16 PM
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Quote: OnceDearYou engaged him again. So he won again!
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I won again because I won the argument and you know it. If I'm wrong make your case which you know you can't do so you think just shutting up is making a statement. The statement its making is that you lost.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
November 20th, 2023 at 12:52:15 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
That math is in effect on every single bet you make, because those payouts don't change.
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Of course it is!
Oh, good, I'm glad you agree with me that the house edge is in effect on every single spin.
Quote:When you make a bet in roulette or any table game do you think you're going to win or lose that bet depending on the house edge?
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No, because the house edge doesn't determine the odds of winning or losing. It determines payback.
November 20th, 2023 at 12:58:06 PM
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Quote: EvenBobQuote: TigerWu
That math is in effect on every single bet you make, because those payouts don't change.
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Of course it is! But not in the short term only in the long-term! When you make a bet in roulette or any table game do you think you're going to win or lose that bet depending on the house edge? Obviously not. If you make a $100 bet in roulette do you really think you're going to get 95% of that bet back right then on a double zero wheel? Really? Do you think it's going to happen on the next bet, or even in that entire session? No, it's not. It's going to happen in the long run and you'll never even get to the long run. Short-term variance is the only thing that counts in short-term play.
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If I understand your bizarre way of thinking, it doesn't effect the short term, but it does effect the long term? So, it has no effect on the first 50 spins, but after that it does? Or is 500 spins? 5000 spins? How does the ball determine if it is doing a short-term spin for you or a long term spin for the casino? Can a spin have both a short-term effect and a long term one?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
