Collectibles: Investment, Confidence Game or Gamble?

Greetings!

I would like to announce the publishing of this WoO Page which I titled, Collectibles: Investment, Confidence Game or Gamble.

As a major part of this article, you will notice that I immediately thank Paul of Geekadrome: Games and Comics, which is located in the Brookline area of Pittsburgh, PA, so if you're reading from this area, please consider stopping by and having a look at his inventory (which is ample) if those are your interests. I also gather that there is not a question in those collectibles market segments that he couldn't answer, and even if there was, one of his employees certainly could.

Here's the webpage:

https://wizardofodds.com/online-gambling/articles/collectibles-investment-confidence-game-or-gamble/

I think I successfully defend my positions that, while perhaps not, "Gambling," such investments are a gamble. Honestly, I consider most investments to be a form of gambling as all involve the concept of EV and, in the vast majority of cases, uncertain rates of return.

I try not to toot my own horn, but I will say that I think this may be the best article I have ever written on any subject, and if it is, it's only because I had Paul's help to broaden what would have otherwise been a very narrow viewpoint.

If you have ever enjoyed my writings at all, then I would very much appreciate you giving this one a read.

In addition to talking about the article, this thread may also be used for the purpose of discussing, more generally, collectibles investing, flipping, trading or just collectibles on the whole.

Wow!!! That is a long article. I only made it through about 20% and gave up since the game is not anything that I am familiar with.

You may want to consider breaking that into multiple articles.

Quote: DRich

Wow!!! That is a long article. I only made it through about 20% and gave up since the game is not anything that I am familiar with.

You may want to consider breaking that into multiple articles.
link to original post

I might write some supplemental articles that link back to that one. If not supplemental, then more narrowly-focused ones.

The structure of the article is based largely around the interview, even though only about 25% of my writing was actually changed as a result of the interview. I appreciate you giving it a look, but from a quality standpoint, I think it works best as a single page.

Feel free to come back to it, if you choose. It doesn't necessarily have to be read in one sitting.

Farewell is a card that costs four mana of any color and two white mana specifically, for a total of six mana.

Using Farewell, you have your choice of exiling (permanently gone) all creatures, artifacts, enchantments and graveyards. You may select any combination of these, or you may choose to do all of them.

Graveyard exiles are good when it comes to an opponent who has a lot of graveyard interactions, such as bringing cards from the graveyard to the battlefield, bringing cards from the graveyard back to their hand or cards with something called, "Disturb," which enables them to be cast again. Some cards also have something called, "Blitz," and can be cast from the graveyard causing them to die again at the end of your turn (but can sometimes be cast again with the Blitz ability) and sometimes (maybe always?) using the Blitz ability comes with some other effect, such as drawing a card when the creature is sacrificed.

Anyway, that's why it is useful to exile all graveyards. Of course, you won't automatically want to do that because you might have graveyard interactions yourself, so the downside to Farewell, in that respect, is that it exiles ALL graveyards, which includes your own.

Obviously, if you have graveyard interactions and, as far as you can tell, your opponent does not, then you would not want to exile all graveyards.

This has been a gratuitous thread bump, though it added information relevant to Magic the Gathering. The link to the Collectibles: Investment, Confidence Game or Gamble page appears in the OP.

There will be more information about Farewell in another gratuitous thread bump to come this evening, possibly.

Quote:

RULE 9: No thumbtacking. Don't post one or two words just to keep a thread in the top of the list. If that is your motive, at least add something substantive to say about the topic, or at least a joke.

I have added something substantive about the topic.

No, you have not.

Quote: billryan

No, you have not.
link to original post

That's fine. They can suspend me if they want to. Have you seen the length of the article? I don't know what else I could add to that which would be directly on topic.

Just let me know if you're going to call for a Suspension so I can post this week's lines up early.

I thought this was the thread for silly arguments. My mistake- I see it is the thread down the hall.
My only comment on your long article is you should have had more sources.

Quote: billryan

I thought this was the thread for silly arguments. My mistake- I see it is the thread down the hall.
My only comment on your long article is you should have had more sources.
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That's actually a fair point.

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but aren't you into comics? Perhaps we could work on something together that gets into the actual mechanics of how collectibles gain value, but only if you want to. No need to reply in thread.

I'll be happy to discuss comics and collectibles with you or anyone. It's not my job, it's my passion.
These days, the growth in comics is mainly fueled by movies and television. An obscure character like Groot is featured in a movie, and his first appearance goes from being a $10 book to being a $1000 book almost overnite.
Most collectibles are trending downward after rising to ridiculous heights in 2021, although the ultra-high-end is still seeing growth.

Quote: billryan

I'll be happy to discuss comics and collectibles with you or anyone. It's not my job, it's my passion.
These days, the growth in comics is mainly fueled by movies and television. An obscure character like Groot is featured in a movie, and his first appearance goes from being a $10 book to being a $1000 book almost overnite.
Most collectibles are trending downward after rising to ridiculous heights in 2021, although the ultra-high-end is still seeing growth.
link to original post

That's awesome! Do you have your PM's open? If you're happy to do so, then we can do it for a supplemental article that will be published here on WoV. I've got some stuff in progress right now that I need to get done, so maybe next week if it's convenient for you?

I'm not hard to find, though I tend to take a lot of unexpected vacations.

I am also into comics, and what BillRyan has told you is true. But what he has told you is also common knowledge that is understood by everyone in the comics collectibles hobby and industry. The Overstreet Guide to Comics is a 1200 + page book, published every year, that features the current price of most comics but also features articles written each year by approx. 100 people ( collectors, store owners from all around the country, investors, auction house owners, specialist collectors, convention exhibitors, grading company founders etc.) on the state of the comic industry in the past year. Try scanning the last 30 years of that and you would have done adequate research on which to base a story.

There are also internet forums and many other information sources on comic books.

My question is: What is your audience?

If you are writing for people in a particular hobby, then you probably have nothing to tell them. They have worked far harder than you have to understand their hobby and they have experiences whereas you are simply reporting second-hand knowledge.

If you are writing for people with a casual interest then your current article and envisioned comics article are likely too long and too detailed.

I am glad you are having fun learning about new subject matter. But a subject such as comics collecting is changing all the time,and interviewing one person one time and publishing one article -rather than a blog or an annual series of articles based on your immersion in the hobby - sounds so DOA.

If your immediate reaction is to disagree then do this thought experiment: imagine writing one article for the WOO site about collecting fine art based on an interview with one person. How lame, how underinformed and how quickly obsolete. Any editor of a magazine would reject your articles because they are based on one interview rather than on multiple interviews. You are fortunate in that WOO articles have no discerning editors.

Edit: Indeed, come to think of it, I would much prefer to see an article written by BillRyan on Comics Collectibles. He thoroughly understands the subject, he knows where to go to check facts and gets insights and is one of the best writers on the forum.

Quote: gordonm888

I am also into comics, and what BillRyan has told you is true. But what he has told you is also common knowledge that is understood by everyone in the comics collectibles hobby and industry. The Overstreet Guide to Comics is a 1200 + page book, published every year, that features the current price of most comics but also features articles written each year by approx. 100 people ( collectors, store owners from all around the country, investors, auction house owners, specialist collectors, convention exhibitors, grading company founders etc.) on the state of the comic industry in the past year. Try scanning the last 30 years of that and you would have done adequate research on which to base a story.

There are also internet forums and many other information sources on comic books.

My question is: What is your audience?

If you are writing for people in a particular hobby, then you probably have nothing to tell them. They have worked far harder than you have to understand their hobby and they have experiences whereas you are simply reporting second-hand knowledge.

If you are writing for people with a casual interest then your current article and envisioned comics article are likely too long and too detailed.

I am glad you are having fun enjoying learning about new subject matter. But a subject such as comics collecting is changing all the time,and interviewing one person one time and publishing one article -rather than a blog or an annual series of articles based on your immersion in the hobby - sounds so DOA.

If your immediate reaction is to disagree then do this thought experiment: imagine writing one article for the WOO site about collecting fine art based on an interview with one person. How lame, how underinformed and how quickly obsolete. Any editor of a magazine would reject your articles because they are based on one interview rather than on multiple interviews. You are fortunate in that WOO articles have no discerning editors.
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I appreciate this post!

My idea with BillRyan is to approach the article from the standpoint of someone who is a collector (BillRyan) and only minimally get into the technicals of comic book collecting. If my experience with the article (linked in the OP) has shown me anything, it's that, even with between 50-60 hours of just studying ONE specific subset (Magic) of a specific type of collectible (Trading Card Games) you'll really only learn enough that you can ask decent questions.

When I get into this with BillRyan, I envision this article about being less about the ins and outs and more just a piece geared towards his perceptions and experiences throughout his many years of collecting comics. If you're also heavily into comics and would be interested, then I could do interviews with both of you for the article.

I don't really plan to dive into the technicals of comic book collecting and trading too much because I already did that with Magic and it was only enough to teach me what questions I should ask and I have a grasp of only the fundamentals of what goes into it. Comics, in my opinion, would actually be far more difficult for me to understand because then you are probably talking about different segments of comics, different types of future value speculation and certainly the fact that there are different comic book companies out there.

Of course, there will be some speculative questions such as, "If you hear that a movie based on an older comic book is in pre-production, or the idea for the movie is being bandied about, would this cause you to try to try to amass as much of that Comic IP as you can hoping to sell it for a much greater cost when the movie comes out?", that sort of thing. I'd also ask some questions about how new comic book collectors might be able to enter the game as cheaply as possible and how to cheaply acquire items likely to appreciate in perceived value, questions like that.

As far as myself diving into it, I don't see that happening. This article will be a much shorter, "Human experience," focused article and will all but consist entirely of the interview(s). I'll do just enough research so that my questions aren't flatly dumb.

With the article linked in the OP, while I was legitimately surprised by a great many of the answers, roughly half of the questions I asked I did already knowing what the answer would be, or, at least, what idea the answer would convey.

My audience, at least in the case of the article in the OP, was that I was interested in the subject and I feel like we will do pretty well on Google as people are searching for information/opinion related to, specifically, Magic 30th Anniversary. As a result, I would expect some new eyes to be drawn to the sites. Further, I knew that some here on the message board are collectors of things and may have interest. Also, there are a great many professional and amateur poker players, believe it or not, with a great interest in the Magic: The Gathering card game and community.

So, I was, believe it or not, writing to an intended audience that I had figured out in advance.

Now, when it comes to the WoV article, I don't have much of an intended audience for that, though I suspect that many forum members will want to hear the story of one of their fellow forum members, so that's automatically interesting to some people. I'll probably also try to name drop some comic titles and such that I think Google might like, so I will have to look into that.

More broadly, these have also been basic Economics articles as the influx of cash into collectibles markets led to many market peaks in 2021. Money printer went 'Brrr,' Government gives people money, people buy shizzz...or make investments of one kind, or another, with no real idea of what they are doing. After that, market crashes, or at least retraces back to normal levels.

Furthermore, Covid was unique in that it caused a huge transition from services, which are often experiences, to goods...because many were afraid to go outside to these restaurants and events and, in some states, you literally could not do so.

Maybe I will write an annual article; it's possible, but I doubt it. Even knowing there is something of a market, even on a gambling website, for this sort of material...I don't know what the market is until this article in the OP has the opportunity to test it. A single WoV article is harmless. If this article on WoO does extremely well in traffic, then I will probably write a similar one one day, if not, then I won't. I didn't write it expecting this to be a recurring series or subject.

So, Google will decide. Other than general requests to write about particular subjects sometimes, I am pretty much free to do whatever I want. If ownership of the sites doesn't want me to test out new ideas like this again, then they will likely ask me not to test out new subjects and I will comply. I have tested out new subjects before and have never been asked not to, so my assumption is that the articles hold up well enough.

That said, collectibles will likely not be repeated unless this WoO page does extremely well. Magic 30th is a really hot topic in that community, so I expect this to do really well on Google. If no Magic 30th, then I'd never have written this because I wouldn't think there'd be a sufficient market to justify it.

Quote: gordonm888

Edit: Indeed, come to think of it, I would much prefer to see an article written by BillRyan on Comics Collectibles. He thoroughly understands the subject, he knows where to go to check facts and gets insights and is one of the best writers on the forum.
link to original post

My question is this: If I interviewed Bill on the subject, then would you want to read that interview? That's really all I care about. Anyway, I think my above post addresses your concerns well-enough, but feel free to ask if you have any other questions or to make any other statements.

Let me say something constructive.

I have a friend who collects and buys and sells vintage Christmas tree ornaments. Goes to conventions and sets up booths and has a house stuffed to the gills with boxes of beautiful ornaments. I would much rather read an article about a smaller niche hobby like that, one that has never been written up (or almost never). Its a mistake to write about a billion dollar a year collectibles industry in which individual comics are being sold for over $1 million apiece based on an interview with a casual acquaintance.

Or interview the Wizard about collecting automotive license plates and get him to suggest at least two other people you could interview on the subject. Writing 101: Every article you write should have at least three sources.

Quote: gordonm888

Let me say something constructive.

I have a friend who collects and buys and sells vintage Christmas tree ornaments. Goes to conventions and sets up booths and has a house stuffed to the gills with boxes of beautiful ornaments. I would much rather read an article about a smaller niche hobby like that, one that has never been written up (or almost never). Its a mistake to write about a billion dollar a year collectibles industry in which individual comics are being sold for over $1 million apiece based on an interview with a casual acquaintance.

Or interview the Wizard about collecting automotive license plates and get him to suggest at least two other people you could interview on the subject. Writing 101: Every article you write should have at least three sources.
link to original post

Here's where I disagree with the source comment slightly: I linked to a professional writer on the subject of Magic: The Gathering investing, specifically, as well as to a Youtuber (Alpha Investments) who does any number of videos on investing in Trading Card Games and Collectible Card Games. If people don't feel as though the article conveys enough information from a sufficient number of sources on direct, then what the article does do is links to other sources of information and also contains more than sufficient information such that people can do their own research into the matter---which I specifically say they should do in the disclaimer anyway.

So, in order to do interviews of that sort of length with three people, it would be very difficult to justify the length of the article, or how many separate articles that there would have to be, when my main reason for doing it now is that I can do a little test when I have the best possible target market (as a result of how hot the Magic 30th topic is) that I will ever have.

In other words, if this article does not do astoundingly well, then I'm not going to get into the subject again. There will never be a better opportunity than right now to draw eyes to the site that may not have otherwise ever visited this site by way of the collectibles, and specifically, Magic topic.

If it doesn't work, then it doesn't work. Even if it does work, it would have to be top-tier results for me to repeat it. I'm pretty self-managing in that way.

Anyway, perhaps I wasn't writing for you specifically. An article about an extremely niche topic will not perform well in traffic, so I could not possibly write that for WoO and could only maybe do something like that for WoV and it would have to be an extremely short article if I did.

The, "Casual acquaintance," is not an acquaintance at all, or wasn't. He has owned a very successful collectibles shop for nearly two decades and I had no idea who he was until I started making calls to get an interview. I contacted many other stores, as well, and without ever saying who they were...I did not feel as though some of them were either willing or able to answer the questions to the standards I wanted. Quite frankly, it would have come off as a very shillish article with a few of them.

Perhaps I will interview Wizard on that subject as any direct interview with Wizard should be of interest to frequent readers of the sites. The idea of the Collectibles article wasn't necessarily meant exclusively to get people who already read the sites to read yet another page.

I don't think many people are speculating on Christmas tree ornaments or license plates. Comics and cards are rife with speculation.
In the 1990s, there was a concern kids were buying the packs for the chase cards, not the cards themselves. It was as if Topps was selling lottery tickets to 12 year olds.

Quote: billryan

I don't think many people are speculating on Christmas tree ornaments or license plates. Comics and cards are rife with speculation.
In the 1990s, there was a concern kids were buying the packs for the chase cards, not the cards themselves. It was as if Topps was selling lottery tickets to 12 year olds.
link to original post

Thank you.

If ownership asks me to never try a topic to pull in new visitors who might not otherwise ever see the sites, then I won't. If they say, "Hey, you can do that, but let's keep it to xxx length," then I'll do that. I can't imagine ownership would have a fundamental disagreement to the concept of trying to pull in new site visitors who might have just a passing interest in gambling stuff anyway when I know a topic is really hot.

The idea being something gambling-related might pop into their head and they'll say, "Hey, that site where I read that one Magic article looks like it would have a TON of gambling information, I should try to find that again."

There have been a few slight changes that I've been asked to make over these years, and when that happens, I always comply.

So, I have multiple target markets, but that's the biggest target. I don't necessarily expect everyone on WoV to run over and read that whole thing, except I'd expect people here who are collectors would at least glance it over a bit.

Also, internet currency.

Why is a store owner with so much experience going to sit with me for two hours? I'll tell you why, or why I think, because I popped his store in the article and I told him when I first called him that I wouldn't mention any other physical local game shops in the article.

Can I get three store owners to answer maybe a couple of questions each with nothing being offered on my end? Maybe. I'd rather have one person for two hours, though, that way we can get in-depth and I can ask all the follow-up questions I want.

WoO is a big site, so I do have online exposure I can offer in trade, but WoO is not CBS News, or Yahoo, or something. So, it's really not as easy as, "Why didn't you interview three store owners?"

Quote: Mission146

Quote: gordonm888

Edit: Indeed, come to think of it, I would much prefer to see an article written by BillRyan on Comics Collectibles. He thoroughly understands the subject, he knows where to go to check facts and gets insights and is one of the best writers on the forum.
link to original post

My question is this: If I interviewed Bill on the subject, then would you want to read that interview? That's really all I care about. Anyway, I think my above post addresses your concerns well-enough, but feel free to ask if you have any other questions or to make any other statements.
link to original post

No.

The reason I said that I would prefer to read an article written by Bill is because Bill knows enough about the subject matter to think about what the article should be about and about what questions to ask, and who to do short interviews with in order to get nuggets of information. An interview with Bill should be to familiarize yourself with the subject so you can plan how you want to approach researching and writing an article.

BTW, most articles that are based on a single interview are formatted in a question and answer mode in which the answers are summaries of what the interviewee said, mostly in the words of the interviewee. However, in general non-fiction articles should be based on a minimum of three sources (rule of thumb), and sometimes may be based on dozens of sources.

And comics collecting is a gigantic subject with its own vast literature of commentary -a vast literature that you are unfamiliar with. For example, the comics marketplace is currently being influenced, in part, by Japanese and other Asian investors who view comics purely as a commodity investment. That's something I'd like to learn more about -especially if someone has numbers they could quote on that trend. Or the roles of auction houses and whether they are literally sucking too much of the money out of the marketplace with their fees on buyers and sellers. The effect of the pandemic on the industry (altho I've read a lot about this.) The effect of Disney ownership on the Marvel Comics Film studios and Disney's desire for content for their streaming outlet, Disney+, and how that affects the comics marketplace. There must be dozens of topics to write about. But a general summary of the comics industry by an outsider interviewing a single participant? No. I am skeptical that I would learn anything and would probably be annoyed at the presumption of the author and aggravated by the article's inaccuracies, omissions and viewpoint.

If you are dead set on interviewing Bill and then writing an article, I suggest you make the article be about Bill's personal history in comic book collecting - sort of documenting one man's first-person account. Sort of like documenting a soldier's letters from the warfront - rather than conflating that into being an authoritative picture of the intricacies and nuances of the entire war.

In this age of influencers, I think a shop sponsors an article about a popular game that repeatedly pops one shop. I know that isn't the case here, but I think some people will see it like that. The rise of paid influencers is a two-sided sword.

Quote: gordonm888

Quote: Mission146

Quote: gordonm888

Edit: Indeed, come to think of it, I would much prefer to see an article written by BillRyan on Comics Collectibles. He thoroughly understands the subject, he knows where to go to check facts and gets insights and is one of the best writers on the forum.
link to original post

My question is this: If I interviewed Bill on the subject, then would you want to read that interview? That's really all I care about. Anyway, I think my above post addresses your concerns well-enough, but feel free to ask if you have any other questions or to make any other statements.
link to original post

No.

The reason I said that I would prefer to read an article written by Bill is because Bill knows enough about the subject matter to think about what the article should be about and about what questions to ask, and who to do short interviews with in order to get nuggets of information. An interview with Bill should be to familiarize yourself with the subject so you can plan how you want to approach researching and writing an article.

BTW, most articles that are based on a single interview are formatted in a question and answer mode in which the answers are summaries of what the interviewee said, mostly in the words of the interviewee. However, in general non-fiction articles should be based on a minimum of three sources (rule of thumb), and sometimes may be based on dozens of sources.

And comics collecting is a gigantic subject with its own vast literature of commentary -a vast literature that you are unfamiliar with. For example, the comics marketplace is currently being influenced, in part, by Japanese and other Asian investors who view comics purely as a commodity investment. That's something I'd like to learn more about -especially if someone has numbers they could quote on that trend. Or the roles of auction houses and whether they are literally sucking too much of the money out of the marketplace with their fees on buyers and sellers. The effect of the pandemic on the industry (altho I've read a lot about this.) The effect of Disney ownership on the Marvel Comics Film studios and Disney's desire for content for their streaming outlet, Disney+, and how that affects the comics marketplace. There must be dozens of topics to write about. But a general summary of the comics industry by an outsider interviewing a single participant? No. I am skeptical that I would learn anything and would probably be annoyed at the presumption of the author and aggravated by the article's inaccuracies, omissions and viewpoint.

If you are dead set on interviewing Bill and then writing an article, I suggest you make the article be about Bill's personal history in comic book collecting - sort of documenting one man's first-person account. Sort of like documenting a soldier's letters from the warfront - rather than conflating that into being an authoritative picture of the intricacies and nuances of the entire war.
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Okay, then I'm not writing it. Problem solved.

Quote: billryan

In this age of influencers, I think a shop sponsors an article about a popular game that repeatedly pops one shop. I know that isn't the case here, but I think some people will see it like that. The rise of paid influencers is a two-sided sword.
link to original post

Ironically, it was me who considered offering direct compensation to anyone with sufficient experience who participated in the interview, but then I decided that popping their shop would be a reasonable exchange. Otherwise, my offer probably would have been half of what I make on the page.

Just to clarify- I offer to help you with an article, not to be the subject of an interview. I'm more than happy to help you to understand the business/hobby and you can bounce your prelims off me if you want, but I've no interest in being the focus of the article, nor do I think there would be much interest in such an article. I was one of the thousands in the second wave of comic shop owners, and my story isn't much different than the 90% of them who saw the whole business model change. In the 80s, 75% of my sales were back issues and I didn't need a diverse inventory. Comics cost me thirty cents, and if I over-ordered, the books became back issues and sold for a premium. Today, back-issue sales are minuscule, and each book you buy but don't sell ends up as deadwood and costs almost $2.
A couple of mistakes in ordering can get expensive.
I opened my first shop with under $5,000. today, you can expect to lay out ten times that to open a new one.

Quote: billryan

Just to clarify- I offer to help you with an article, not to be the subject of an interview. I'm more than happy to help you to understand the business/hobby and you can bounce your prelims off me if you want, but I've no interest in being the focus of the article, nor do I think there would be much interest in such an article. I was one of the thousands in the second wave of comic shop owners, and my story isn't much different than the 90% of them who saw the whole business model change. In the 80s, 75% of my sales were back issues and I didn't need a diverse inventory. Comics cost me thirty cents, and if I over-ordered, the books became back issues and sold for a premium. Today, back-issue sales are minuscule, and each book you buy but don't sell ends up as deadwood and costs almost $2.
A couple of mistakes in ordering can get expensive.
I opened my first shop with under $5,000. today, you can expect to lay out ten times that to open a new one.
link to original post

I appreciate that!

I have to be honest and say that I don't think this would be the time for a large subject on comic book collectibles, but it might be an article that I would try if there is some massive event in the comic book world that happens at some point in the future.

I know that many people on here aren't necessarily going to be into Magic: The Gathering, so they might not be aware of just how big of a deal the 30th Anniversary thing was and how much blowback Hasbro suffered as a result from their own end consumers.

Here's an article on the subject from Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/curtissilver/2022/11/21/unboxing-the-magic-the-gathering-30th-anniversary-edition/?sh=3591c3b759a9

If you read both, then you will notice that the Forbes article substantially agrees with the positions that I took in my own article, but it only discusses Magic 30th Anniversary and doesn't get so much into the broader subject of playing, collecting, trading and investing in Magic whatsoever.

The Forbes article predicted that 30th Anniversary would sell out, "Within minutes," and it seems that the product did not come anywhere close to doing that. As you can see, other than what Paul said, my article does not purport to offer any predictions, but rather, asks questions. He doesn't even predict anything, per se, just goes into a few things that he thinks might happen, in terms of long-term valuations.

The Forbes article has no sources and barely any citations. Hell, I thought the first half of it read as an advertisement before they started lightly ripping into the fact that this product does not benefit the average Magic player and is unattainable for many of them.

A short article from IGN substantially agrees with my position:

https://www.ign.com/articles/the-rarest-card-in-magic-the-gatherings-anniversary-set-is-one-in-100000-worth-of-packs

But, is extremely lacking in content and only cites one Youtuber.

Barrons has an article about it:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hasbro-magic-the-gathering-stock-price-51668805698

Yahoo covers it:

https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/hasbro-killing-golden-goose-destroying-203836388.html

They cite Bank of America's downgrade and the original article was on BusinessInsider.

Okay, so here is my logic:

1.) Many outlets are covering this subject.

2.) Many outlets are citing opinions of local game stores, but none of these have actually spoken, in-depth, with one such game store on the record.

3.) There is a great interest in this subject in the Magic community.

4.) Magic has a HUGE player base, many of whom, I would assume, would never otherwise stumble upon WoO.

With that, I got a good interview and went a little deeper into the subject of Magic 30th, Magic investing on the whole and lightly touched on the subject of collectibles investing, in general, using Magic 30th as an example of an event that can be a significant market mover in that realm. Covid and Government stimulus, also. You highlighted the Groot comics popping after Groot became one of the main characters of Guardians, so that is another event.

Is my article as well-written as the others above? I don't know and it's not for me to say. Is it more detailed? Absolutely. Should my in-depth interview with an actual store owner be of interest to people? I would darn well hope so.

I might not have responded to all of these things individually, so let me go through and offer quick responses to anything I might have missed.

Quote: gordonm888

I am also into comics, and what BillRyan has told you is true. But what he has told you is also common knowledge that is understood by everyone in the comics collectibles hobby and industry. The Overstreet Guide to Comics is a 1200 + page book, published every year, that features the current price of most comics but also features articles written each year by approx. 100 people ( collectors, store owners from all around the country, investors, auction house owners, specialist collectors, convention exhibitors, grading company founders etc.) on the state of the comic industry in the past year. Try scanning the last 30 years of that and you would have done adequate research on which to base a story.

I have no immediate plans to write an article about comics.

Quote:

There are also internet forums and many other information sources on comic books.

Irrelevant.

Quote:

My question is: What is your audience?

Answered in previous posts.

Quote:

If you are writing for people in a particular hobby, then you probably have nothing to tell them. They have worked far harder than you have to understand their hobby and they have experiences whereas you are simply reporting second-hand knowledge.

I put a great amount of research into the topic of Magic: The Gathering as an investment and not all of this research is necessarily reflected in the article. I also acknowledge that I do not know as much about it as those who are deeply involved, so what did I do? I sought out someone who is deeply involved. I would say owning a store for nearly two decades means that he provided first-hand knowledge, which is why I wanted to seek out an interview like that.

Forbes, Barrons, Yahoo/BusinessInsider didn't even do that much. Although, I understand that it's totally reasonable to hold me to a higher standard than fledgling outlets such as those. I mean, Yahoo! only gets 700M visitors a month, you know?

Quote:

If you are writing for people with a casual interest then your current article and envisioned comics article are likely too long and too detailed.

Magic 30th Anniversary is the hook, even though the article isn't limited to Magic 30th. It is a subject of interest to all Magic players. I do not expect people who are already deep into Magic: The Gathering to read it hoping to learn anything new, though they might learn a thing or two from the interview. I should also assume that players and collectors would be interested in any in-depth interview with a long-time store owner.

Quote:

I am glad you are having fun learning about new subject matter. But a subject such as comics collecting is changing all the time,and interviewing one person one time and publishing one article -rather than a blog or an annual series of articles based on your immersion in the hobby - sounds so DOA.

Probably won't ever happen. I don't even think a huge event in the comics market that I could hop on in the hopes of new traffic would ever even come up on my radar and I only stumbled on this Magic thing by happenstance.

Quote:

If your immediate reaction is to disagree then do this thought experiment: imagine writing one article for the WOO site about collecting fine art based on an interview with one person. How lame, how underinformed and how quickly obsolete. Any editor of a magazine would reject your articles because they are based on one interview rather than on multiple interviews. You are fortunate in that WOO articles have no discerning editors.

Fine art is a much smaller niche, so any major market mover in that would barely be more broadly noticed. Magic has over 100,000 daily players and tens of millions of players around the world overall. The slice of that base that I need to see my article for the article to benefit the sites is miniscule.

Quote:

Edit: Indeed, come to think of it, I would much prefer to see an article written by BillRyan on Comics Collectibles. He thoroughly understands the subject, he knows where to go to check facts and gets insights and is one of the best writers on the forum.
link to original post

Good enough.

Damn Mission is getting taken to task.

Random comment but about collectibles near your general geographic location: Steel City Collectibles is one of biggest distributors/shops for sports cards in the world, you wouldn’t have enough fingers to count down shops with comparable inventory.

There has been a lot of speculation from sports cards dealers/vendors into Magic the last few years that hadn’t been there prior is what triggered the thought.

Quote: mcallister3200

Damn Mission is getting taken to task.

Random comment but about collectibles near your general geographic location: Steel City Collectibles is one of biggest distributors/shops for sports cards in the world, you wouldn’t have enough fingers to count down shops with comparable inventory.

There has been a lot of speculation from sports cards dealers/vendors into Magic the last few years that hadn’t been there prior is what triggered the thought.
link to original post

Right?

I'm quite aware of how huge the company you mentioned is, which is why I did not approach them. I assumed they wouldn't be interested in whatever online exposure the article would provide and I'd also have no desire to even trade the exposure to a shop that already has such a strong position in the market.

These reviews were also of great concern to me:

https://www.bbb.org/us/pa/mckeesport/profile/sports-memorabilia/steel-city-collectibles-0141-71008782/customer-reviews

Whereas, with the store owner I did interview, many of the reviews praise him specifically. You can read them on Google for yourself! After conducting the interview with him, I can understand why!

Quote: Mission146

Quote: mcallister3200

Damn Mission is getting taken to task.

Random comment but about collectibles near your general geographic location: Steel City Collectibles is one of biggest distributors/shops for sports cards in the world, you wouldn’t have enough fingers to count down shops with comparable inventory.

There has been a lot of speculation from sports cards dealers/vendors into Magic the last few years that hadn’t been there prior is what triggered the thought.
link to original post

Right?

I'm quite aware of how huge the company you mentioned is, which is why I did not approach them. I assumed they wouldn't be interested in whatever online exposure the article would provide and I'd also have no desire to even trade the exposure to a shop that already has such a strong position in the market.

These reviews were also of great concern to me:

https://www.bbb.org/us/pa/mckeesport/profile/sports-memorabilia/steel-city-collectibles-0141-71008782/customer-reviews

Whereas, with the store owner I did interview, many of the reviews praise him specifically. You can read them on Google for yourself! After conducting the interview with him, I can understand why!
link to original post

I do remember hearing about the accusations lodged against them. The person that publicly accused them also made a public apology in which he seemed shaken, it clearly appeared he had been threatened with legal action, seemed kind of crappy by STC.

I will say that there’s a large number in the collecting community that doesn’t have any understanding of variance and thinks anything improbable that happens must be rigged; and anything with under a 1% probability of happening actually happening is proof it was rigged.

Quote: mcallister3200

[

I do remember hearing about the accusations lodged against them. The person that publicly accused them also made a public apology in which he seemed shaken, it clearly appeared he had been threatened with legal action, seemed kind of crappy by STC.

I will say that there’s a large number in the collecting community that doesn’t have any understanding of variance and thinks anything improbable that happens must be rigged; and anything with under a 1% probability of happening actually happening is proof it was rigged.
link to original post

Definitely. I don't take the accusations as proof whatsoever, but that combined with what I felt would be a lack of interest for them and my preference to approach a lower volume shop with not as strong of a market position was what went into it.

I didn't want anything along the lines of, "Hey, why would you do an article that promotes these guys?"

That's kind of like my GameStop disclaimer in the article where I said, "(I...could have picked a better company)," because they are not exactly considered USA's best corporation when it comes to employee treatment.

My early Christmas present to myself.



Huge book out Germany, reprinting the first twenty issues of the Fantastic Four, with many unpublished pinups, preliminary art and some seldom seen interviews. It must weigh over twenty pounds.

I think you dismiss Drich comment too quickly.

And similar to gordonm888's comment further down, I feel your article is too long.

I gave up very early. Not necessarily because of the content (I used to play Magic), but because the daunting aspect of reading on the screen forever.

As such, I don't think (or know) that the content is bad. Or that the article is bad. But the form - a 100-screen long web page - is most definitely bad.

So, ask yourself these questions
* Who is my audience?
* Why do I write this for them?
* How can I structure it so it is APPEALING for my audience to read.

And I think this comes back to Drich's suggestion: You may want to consider breaking that into multiple articles.

Quote: Mukke

I think you dismiss Drich comment too quickly.

And similar to gordonm888's comment further down, I feel your article is too long.

I gave up very early. Not necessarily because of the content (I used to play Magic), but because the daunting aspect of reading on the screen forever.

As such, I don't think (or know) that the content is bad. Or that the article is bad. But the form - a 100-screen long web page - is most definitely bad.

So, ask yourself these questions
* Who is my audience?
* Why do I write this for them?
* How can I structure it so it is APPEALING for my audience to read.

And I think this comes back to Drich's suggestion: You may want to consider breaking that into multiple articles.
link to original post

Fair enough; I’ll keep it in mind.

You could honestly just jump to the interview and that’s the best part of it. I’ve read it through I don’t know how many times and am still not tired of it.

Anyway, I hear it about long articles all the time, so I’ll start trimming them, even though I personally hate short format garbage that doesn’t get into anything. I’d just read Twitter posts if that’s what I wanted.

Anyway, I have no direct editing on WoO, so it will probably remain as it is. I guess I’ll try to keep everything to 5k words, or less, in the future, but the quality and depth will drop substantially.

Quote: billryan

My early Christmas present to myself.



Huge book out Germany, reprinting the first twenty issues of the Fantastic Four, with many unpublished pinups, preliminary art and some seldom seen interviews. It must weigh over twenty pounds.
link to original post

Congratulations!

I have a question for collectors to which I have still arrived at no answer, but it’s kind of personal.

When you hold a non-consumable physical object in your hands that you really wanted, what’s that like?

For that matter, what’s it like to even want anything?

I genuinely have no idea when it comes to non-consumables.

I mean, something like a phone or computer, sure, but I could be argued as needing those things, so just satisfying a necessity there. I’m not happy about them. I just want the cheapest possible thing that will function to the level of what I need it for.

Quote: Mission146

You could honestly just jump to the interview and that’s the best part of it. I’ve read it through I don’t know how many times and am still not tired of it.
link to original post

How does the reader of a 100-story tall webpage know what part "is the best part" and jump there?

Quote: Mission146

Anyway, I hear it about long articles all the time, so I’ll start trimming them, even though I personally hate short format garbage that doesn’t get into anything. I’d just read Twitter posts if that’s what I wanted.
link to original post

I feel you're being overly dramatic. If you don't think there's a middle ground between 200 characters and 26.000 words, I don't know how to help you.

Quote: Mission146

I guess I’ll try to keep everything to 5k words, or less, in the future, but the quality and depth will drop substantially.
link to original post

The quality and depth only drops if you let it. With this "temper tantrum" I feel you're not actually asking for feedback. You're only asking for praise. If you cannot write something meaningful in 5.000 words, maybe that's a skill to work on, rather than taking the stance that it simply is not possible. Now whether it's a skill you wish to pursue is of course up to you, but as mentioned earlier: Ask yourself why you write, and then ask yourself how you can actually convince your audience to read your content.

In the Acknowledgment (first section) I suggest reading the interview, if nothing else:

Quote:

Finally, excerpts of the interview will be included throughout the article, but the full interview will also be included prior to the conclusion. I would recommend that everyone read the interview, if nothing else…as Paul obviously knows 1,000,000x more than I do about this subject and it’s generally a very interesting interview. I did my best to ask good questions, occasionally stumbled upon a half decent one, as if by accident, but Paul definitely carried the interview in terms of substance!

On mobile, there is a tool at the top to jump to different sections, and the interview part is found by clicking, “THE FULL INTERVIEW (WHICH I HOPE YOU READ FIRST ANYWAY),” on desktop, this menu is found on the right side of the page.

So, that’s an easy way to find it.

There is a middle ground, 5k words, so from now on, nothing exceeds 5k.

The only negative feedback I ever really get from readers is that things are too long. LCB readers often seem to like the length, so I guess keep them shorter here and over there it’s fine. There have been comments there that they appreciate the detail.

We do have negative feedback about only using one source, but I can’t trim it 80% and have multiple direct sources. It’s simply not possible. Also, similar articles have zero sources, on much bigger websites.

Quote: Mission146

I have a question for collectors to which I have still arrived at no answer, but it’s kind of personal.

When you hold a non-consumable physical object in your hands that you really wanted, what’s that like?

For that matter, what’s it like to even want anything?

I genuinely have no idea when it comes to non-consumables.

I mean, something like a phone or computer, sure, but I could be argued as needing those things, so just satisfying a necessity there. I’m not happy about them. I just want the cheapest possible thing that will function to the level of what I need it for.
link to original post

The first Christmas I can remember, one of my gifts was a set of six inch Marx Cowboys and Indians. I always remembered one of the figures was getting shot and had the strangest look on his face. I saw a set on ebay last week and ended up buying them. They arrived today. I just spent an hour or so going over them. It was quite the rush. I'll post a couple of pictures later. While six-inch toy soldiers can have fantastic detail, most were two and a half inch because they make for better playsets.

Tied to positive memories.

I have no such objects, but I can understand that. What about the acquisition of objects that are not directly tied to memories?

Quote: Mission146

I mean, something like a phone or computer, sure, but I could be argued as needing those things, so just satisfying a necessity there. I’m not happy about them. I just want the cheapest possible thing that will function to the level of what I need it for.

I was always that way with TV's until the prices dropped so much. Why do I need a 65" tv when the same program is on my 25" tv? I grew up with a 12" black and white TV and that was sufficient for me.

I'm not a stuff guy I don't value stuff I don't like clutter. I do like things of utility I have many tools.
I would collect fine art if I made Mission money the length of his writings indicates he must be getting
paid by the letter.

Mission! see here,

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/55mU4de7J6s

Quote: rainman

... if I made Mission money the length of his writings indicates he must be getting
paid by the letter.

Okay, I found that funny.

As a MtG player, and ostensible collector (I have a lot of bulk and random assortment of cards and such, some with over $300 value in the secondary market), I see the Reserved list as a detriment to the game. There are many cards in the Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and Revised sets that are not collectable for any reason other than they have never been reprinted. I also know many people who would love to have the Alpha/Beta dual lands in their Commander decks or play Legacy and Vintage but can't due to the insane barrier to entry when it comes to cost.

It is worth noting that there is NO actual contract codifying the Reserved List, it is just an article (with a currently broken link that does not work) on their website that promises "Cards from A/B/U/R that have not been reprinted WILL NOT BE REPRINTED EVER AGAIN." There are some people who have stated that they will sue if Wizards ever breaks the promise.

I collect a lot of things, but primarily license plates.

Speaking only about license plates, the motive for collecting them should be the love of the hobby and friendships made with other collectors. They do not hold their value well. At one time, they probably did. However, it's an old man's hobby and they are dying off all the time, not to be replaced by enough young collectors. Their collections tend to end up in the hands of liquidators, who then dump the plates on eBay, depressing prices.

Quote: Wizard

I collect a lot of things, but primarily license plates.

Speaking only about license plates, the motive for collecting them should be the love of the hobby and friendships made with other collectors. They do not hold their value well. At one time, they probably did. However, it's an old man's hobby and they are dying off all the time, not to be replaced by enough young collectors. Their collections tend to end up in the hands of liquidators, who then dump the plates on eBay, depressing prices.
link to original post

MtG "collectors" like Rudy of the YouTube Channel Alpha Investments typicaly don't care about the health of the hobby or the love that casual players like me have for the countless hours spent playing. They see it only as an investment tool and only think about the monetary value of the cards.

Side note, i have had many nights where the card shop said you can stay and play all night and we took them at their word. We were still there when they came back the next day to open

Quote: AitchTheLetter

As a MtG player, and ostensible collector (I have a lot of bulk and random assortment of cards and such, some with over $300 value in the secondary market), I see the Reserved list as a detriment to the game. There are many cards in the Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and Revised sets that are not collectable for any reason other than they have never been reprinted. I also know many people who would love to have the Alpha/Beta dual lands in their Commander decks or play Legacy and Vintage but can't due to the insane barrier to entry when it comes to cost.

It is worth noting that there is NO actual contract codifying the Reserved List, it is just an article (with a currently broken link that does not work) on their website that promises "Cards from A/B/U/R that have not been reprinted WILL NOT BE REPRINTED EVER AGAIN." There are some people who have stated that they will sue if Wizards ever breaks the promise.
link to original post

I don't know if they would have grounds, but I think we could at least understand why they might consider suing if that happened. When it came to investing in these high value and rare cards, at least for those that weren't already holding, they can understandably say that they were relying on the written promise of Wizards that the cards would never be reprinted again. Given the promise, they probably bought fairly confident that, even if the cards didn't gain in value, there would at least be no real catalyst that would cause them to drop.

I obviously wouldn't know, but my tendency is to believe that the card types you mentioned in the first paragraph would maintain a lot of value even if the game totally stopped existing, perhaps would even gain value if it did.

What did you think of Paul's idea to reprint substantially the same cards, but add some sort of cost or negative effect to them? Granted, you would have a slightly weaker version of the card from a gameplay standpoint, but perhaps it would be close enough that you could be competitive in the financially difficult to enter formats you mention. Maybe a new version of Mox Ruby, except you pay one life, something like that.

Quote: AitchTheLetter

Quote: Wizard

I collect a lot of things, but primarily license plates.

Speaking only about license plates, the motive for collecting them should be the love of the hobby and friendships made with other collectors. They do not hold their value well. At one time, they probably did. However, it's an old man's hobby and they are dying off all the time, not to be replaced by enough young collectors. Their collections tend to end up in the hands of liquidators, who then dump the plates on eBay, depressing prices.
link to original post

MtG "collectors" like Rudy of the YouTube Channel Alpha Investments typicaly don't care about the health of the hobby or the love that casual players like me have for the countless hours spent playing. They see it only as an investment tool and only think about the monetary value of the cards.

Side note, i have had many nights where the card shop said you can stay and play all night and we took them at their word. We were still there when they came back the next day to open
link to original post

That's not the take I get from Rudy, who claims to love the game and really tore into Hasbro over Magic 30th. I believe he also owns Hasbro stock, at least, I think I recall him saying he does. I can't imagine he'd rip into them like that if he was some kind of shill or didn't care about the game.

I think he's just capable of loving the game and also being a cutthroat investor simultaneously, but that's just my opinion.

Quote: Mission146

I obviously wouldn't know, but my tendency is to believe that the card types you mentioned in the first paragraph would maintain a lot of value even if the game totally stopped existing, perhaps would even gain value if it did.
link to original post

Maybe. Though I hope this game doesn't die.

Quote: Mission146

What did you think of Paul's idea to reprint substantially the same cards, but add some sort of cost or negative effect to them? Granted, you would have a slightly weaker version of the card from a gameplay standpoint, but perhaps it would be close enough that you could be competitive in the financially difficult to enter formats you mention. Maybe a new version of Mox Ruby, except you pay one life, something like that.
link to original post

Not all cards would work like that. We already have sort of "fixed" versions of the Mox in Mox Amber, Mox Opal, and one other that escapes me right now. They WORK but they lack the raw potential of the original Mox and you would be at a disadvantage in Vintage where the original Mox are still legal, if restricted.

Quote: AitchTheLetter

Quote: Mission146

I obviously wouldn't know, but my tendency is to believe that the card types you mentioned in the first paragraph would maintain a lot of value even if the game totally stopped existing, perhaps would even gain value if it did.
link to original post

Maybe. Though I hope this game doesn't die.

Quote: Mission146

What did you think of Paul's idea to reprint substantially the same cards, but add some sort of cost or negative effect to them? Granted, you would have a slightly weaker version of the card from a gameplay standpoint, but perhaps it would be close enough that you could be competitive in the financially difficult to enter formats you mention. Maybe a new version of Mox Ruby, except you pay one life, something like that.
link to original post

Not all cards would work like that. We already have sort of "fixed" versions of the Mox in Mox Amber, Mox Opal, and one other that escapes me right now. They WORK but they lack the raw potential of the original Mox and you would be at a disadvantage in Vintage where the original Mox are still legal, if restricted.
link to original post

I think Mox Opal is an example of one that has the effect, but the condition that has to be satisfied is more than it absolutely needs to be. I just pulled it up (didn't know what it was) and it looks like it only works if you control three, or more, artifacts...which is to say two other artifacts. I don't know how many zero and one drop artifacts there are, though I do know that there are many two drop artifacts, but for the most part, you'd typically already have some sort of mana base before this card even really begins to function, and even when it does, you'd have to have higher cost mana cards that you'd want to, "Cheat," in.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with something like Mox Ruby, you can basically begin, "Cheating in," cards that would otherwise exceed your mana base right away. Two drops on the first turn (assuming you have another land), three drops on turn two, etc...

What I was suggesting is maybe a more minimal cost or condition that doesn't slow down your ability to, "Cheat," stuff in. Like Mox Ruby, except the player loses one life when it enters the battlefield. Or, Black Lotus, but in addition to sacrificing it and getting the three mana of one color when it is tapped, you also lose two life.

There might already be cards that kind of do those things; I wouldn't know.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AitchTheLetter

Quote: Wizard

I collect a lot of things, but primarily license plates.

Speaking only about license plates, the motive for collecting them should be the love of the hobby and friendships made with other collectors. They do not hold their value well. At one time, they probably did. However, it's an old man's hobby and they are dying off all the time, not to be replaced by enough young collectors. Their collections tend to end up in the hands of liquidators, who then dump the plates on eBay, depressing prices.
link to original post

MtG "collectors" like Rudy of the YouTube Channel Alpha Investments typicaly don't care about the health of the hobby or the love that casual players like me have for the countless hours spent playing. They see it only as an investment tool and only think about the monetary value of the cards.

Side note, i have had many nights where the card shop said you can stay and play all night and we took them at their word. We were still there when they came back the next day to open
link to original post

That's not the take I get from Rudy, who claims to love the game and really tore into Hasbro over Magic 30th. I believe he also owns Hasbro stock, at least, I think I recall him saying he does. I can't imagine he'd rip into them like that if he was some kind of shill or didn't care about the game.

I think he's just capable of loving the game and also being a cutthroat investor simultaneously, but that's just my opinion.
link to original post

The person with the best comic collection in the world claims to have never read an American comic. He's a Middle Eastern Prince who was in London buying apartments when some suit convinced him to invest twenty million in a comic book portfolio, which has now grown to over a hundred million. He put the whole collection on public display for a few months and says he will do it again. His buyers seek out the cream of the cream and pay well above market.
I love comics but the market had far surpassed what I had envisioned, and I'm thrilled with the money I got for them. I expect a large correction in the collectibles field, except at the very top. Nobody is getting rich off crypto right now, so I think the days of a card going up $400,000 in two months are at an end. I've moved on and am starting a new hobby.