Machines based on a probability calculation?
Quote: ThatDonGuyCan you give us an example of what you mean by "based on a probability calculation"?
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tbh i dont know either ive been reading alot of IGT patents and they claim that normal slot machines aka "fully random" slot machines winning is based on a "probability calculation" and i just cant figure this out because everyone seems to be confused by that statement
Quote: heatmapQuote: ThatDonGuyCan you give us an example of what you mean by "based on a probability calculation"?
link to original post
tbh i dont know either ive been reading alot of IGT patents and they claim that normal slot machines aka "fully random" slot machines winning is based on a "probability calculation" and i just cant figure this out because everyone seems to be confused by that statement
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The sum of the probability of each outcome multiplied by its payback will return the percentage payback for the slot machine.
Quote: DRichQuote: heatmapQuote: ThatDonGuyCan you give us an example of what you mean by "based on a probability calculation"?
link to original post
tbh i dont know either ive been reading alot of IGT patents and they claim that normal slot machines aka "fully random" slot machines winning is based on a "probability calculation" and i just cant figure this out because everyone seems to be confused by that statement
link to original post
The sum of the probability of each outcome multiplied by its payback will return the percentage payback for the slot machine.
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I am going to have to quote the patent but one of the preferred embodiments they describe as Using a “probability calculation” and it is described as simply having a winning and losing “band” which after that I would assume a particular outcome is shown which is dependent on either winning or losing
Quote: heatmapQuote: DRichQuote: heatmapQuote: ThatDonGuyCan you give us an example of what you mean by "based on a probability calculation"?
link to original post
tbh i dont know either ive been reading alot of IGT patents and they claim that normal slot machines aka "fully random" slot machines winning is based on a "probability calculation" and i just cant figure this out because everyone seems to be confused by that statement
link to original post
The sum of the probability of each outcome multiplied by its payback will return the percentage payback for the slot machine.
link to original post
I am going to have to quote the patent but one of the preferred embodiments they describe as Using a “probability calculation” and it is described as simply having a winning and losing “band” which after that I would assume a particular outcome is shown which is dependent on either winning or losing
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Is this perhaps used for the "wager saver" feature, which may be offered instead of cashing out small credit values?
this is just one example but the "background description" has been copied and pasted within many IGT patents
"Central determination gaming system with a game outcome generated by a gaming terminal and approved by a central controller"
https://patents.google.com/patent/US8337295B2/en
Quote:BACKGROUND
The present invention relates in general to a central determination gaming system, and more particularly to a central determination gaming system with a game outcome generated by a gaming terminal and approved by a central controller. The majority of the contemporary wagering gaming devices or gaming terminals, such as slot machines, randomly generate awards and other outcomes. Such gaming devices typically include a relatively low probability associated with obtaining the highest award, relatively medium probabilities associated with obtaining medium range awards and relatively higher probabilities associated with obtaining low range awards. These gaming devices also include probabilities associated with obtaining losses or no award at all. The probabilities of obtaining the awards and the amount of the awards determine the average expected pay out percentage of these wagering gaming devices. Because the outcomes of these gaming devices are completely randomly determined, there is no certainty that a player will ever obtain any particular award. That is, no matter how many times a player plays the game, since the gaming device generates outcomes randomly or completely based upon a probability calculation, there is no certainty that the game will ever provide the player with a rare outcome, such as a jackpot award, or any other specific value for that matter. On the other hand, due to the random determination, the gaming device can provide the rare outcomes, such as jackpot awards, numerous times in a small number of plays. For example, a probability-based $1 slot machine gaming device may be programmed to payback 95% of all wagers placed with a 1% chance of generating a $10 win outcome, a 5% chance of generating a $5 win outcome, a 10% chance of generating a $2 win outcome, a 40% chance of generating a $1 win outcome and a 44% chance of generating a $0 loss outcome. However, when one hundred game outcomes are generated by the probability-based slot machine gaming device, the actual payback may be 137% of all wagers placed and the actual generated outcomes may be six $10 win outcomes, one $5 win outcome, eighteen $2 win outcomes, thirty-six $1 win outcomes and thirty-nine $0 loss outcomes.
now lets break that down
Quote:The present invention relates in general to a central determination gaming system, and more particularly to a central determination gaming system with a game outcome generated by a gaming terminal and approved by a central controller.
Seems pretty straight forward so far
Quote:The majority of the contemporary wagering gaming devices or gaming terminals, such as slot machines, randomly generate awards and other outcomes.
Also normal language being used
Quote:Such gaming devices typically include a relatively low probability associated with obtaining the highest award, relatively medium probabilities associated with obtaining medium range awards and relatively higher probabilities associated with obtaining low range awards.
Pretty sure that has something to do with what Drich has said
Quote:These gaming devices also include probabilities associated with obtaining losses or no award at all.
Quote:The probabilities of obtaining the awards and the amount of the awards determine the average expected pay out percentage of these wagering gaming devices.
Yup definitely what Drich has said
Quote:Because the outcomes of these gaming devices are completely randomly determined, there is no certainty that a player will ever obtain any particular award.
MM hmm... okay i guess makes sense the next sentence doesnt though
Quote:That is, no matter how many times a player plays the game, since the gaming device generates outcomes randomly or completely based upon a probability calculation, there is no certainty that the game will ever provide the player with a rare outcome, such as a jackpot award, or any other specific value for that matter.
Heres where we see that there is completely random OR based on a probability calculation... this is what im asking about
Quote:On the other hand, due to the random determination, the gaming device can provide the rare outcomes, such as jackpot awards, numerous times in a small number of plays.
Quote:For example, a probability-based $1 slot machine gaming device may be programmed to payback 95% of all wagers placed with a 1% chance of generating a $10 win outcome, a 5% chance of generating a $5 win outcome, a 10% chance of generating a $2 win outcome, a 40% chance of generating a $1 win outcome and a 44% chance of generating a $0 loss outcome.
Quote:However, when one hundred game outcomes are generated by the probability-based slot machine gaming device, the actual payback may be 137% of all wagers placed and the actual generated outcomes may be six $10 win outcomes, one $5 win outcome, eighteen $2 win outcomes, thirty-six $1 win outcomes and thirty-nine $0 loss outcomes.
Quote:This uncertainty is faced by players and casinos or other gaming establishments. For example, certain casinos prefer that a relatively high number of players hit low awards while a relatively low number of players hit high awards. When players hit high awards periodically, casinos attract more players, because of the positive publicity large wins generate. By using desired payback percentages or probabilities, the casinos can also expect to make a certain level of profit. The random determinations can, however, unexpectedly cause casinos to suffer a loss or, on the other hand, to reap great profit in the short run and lose business in the long run due to a reputation for only paying out low awards.
Quote:This uncertainty is faced by players and casinos or other gaming establishments.
Quote:For example, certain casinos prefer that a relatively high number of players hit low awards while a relatively low number of players hit high awards.
Quote:When players hit high awards periodically, casinos attract more players, because of the positive publicity large wins generate.
Quote:By using desired payback percentages or probabilities, the casinos can also expect to make a certain level of profit.
Quote:The random determinations can, however, unexpectedly cause casinos to suffer a loss or, on the other hand, to reap great profit in the short run and lose business in the long run due to a reputation for only paying out low awards.
Quote:Regulatory bodies in certain jurisdictions do not permit the use of probability-based gaming devices in-part for these reasons. These regulatory bodies permit the use of wagering gaming devices which are guaranteed to provide certain or definite awards, so that, for example, a certain number of wins is guaranteed and the overall amount paid back to players is guaranteed. That is, the payback percentage is fixed and not an average expected amount. One type of gaming device which complies with this requirement is an instant-type lottery gaming device. An instant-type lottery gaming device includes a finite pool or set of electronic tickets with each electronic ticket assigned to a predetermined outcome. Alternatively, each electronic ticket could be assigned to a random number or game play seed. Each seed is deterministic of a predetermined game outcome. That is, the gaming device utilizes the random number or game play seed in a random number generating algorithm to generate at least one and preferably a plurality of random numbers that the gaming device then uses to determine and provide the predetermined game outcome. In an instant-type lottery gaming device, as the predetermined outcome for each electronic ticket is revealed to a player on the gaming device, the ticket is flagged or marked as used in the finite pool of electronic tickets. Once flagged, a ticket is prevented from being used again to determine another game outcome. This type of gaming device provides players with all of the available outcomes over the course of the play cycle and guarantees the actual wins and losses.
Quote:Regulatory bodies in certain jurisdictions do not permit the use of probability-based gaming devices in-part for these reasons.
Quote:These regulatory bodies permit the use of wagering gaming devices which are guaranteed to provide certain or definite awards, so that, for example, a certain number of wins is guaranteed and the overall amount paid back to players is guaranteed.
This is describing why they need class 2 machines here
Quote:These regulatory bodies permit the use of wagering gaming devices which are guaranteed to provide certain or definite awards, so that, for example, a certain number of wins is guaranteed and the overall amount paid back to players is guaranteed.
Quote:That is, the payback percentage is fixed and not an average expected amount
More class 2 stuff
Quote:One type of gaming device which complies with this requirement is an instant-type lottery gaming device.
Quote:An instant-type lottery gaming device includes a finite pool or set of electronic tickets with each electronic ticket assigned to a predetermined outcome.
Quote:Alternatively, each electronic ticket could be assigned to a random number or game play seed.
Quote:Each seed is deterministic of a predetermined game outcome.
Quote:That is, the gaming device utilizes the random number or game play seed in a random number generating algorithm to generate at least one and preferably a plurality of random numbers that the gaming device then uses to determine and provide the predetermined game outcome.
Quote:In an instant-type lottery gaming device, as the predetermined outcome for each electronic ticket is revealed to a player on the gaming device, the ticket is flagged or marked as used in the finite pool of electronic tickets.
Quote:Once flagged, a ticket is prevented from being used again to determine another game outcome.
Quote:This type of gaming device provides players with all of the available outcomes over the course of the play cycle and guarantees the actual wins and losses.
Ok so now we know that "probability based" gamin" is not "class 2"
Method of awarding prizes for jackpot and gaming machines based on amount wagered during a time period
https://patents.google.com/patent/US8118664B2
Quote:The jackpot draw for each EGD can be conducted by any suitable draw method which has the required overall probability. For example, a random number generator can be used for the draw. A fixed number range is defined, and divided into two separate sections, the winning band and the losing band. A random number is generated over the entire range; if it falls within the winning band the draw is won. If it falls outside the wining band into the losing band, the draw is lost. The winning band is a percentage of the entire number range, which is equal to the desired win probability.
Thus, if the win probability is 0.1400%, and the number range is, say, 0 to 4294967295, the winning band is all the numbers from 0 to 6012954. The losing band is then 6012955 to 4294967295. When calculating the win band size, because division is involved, all results are rounded up to the next whole digit in the range. If the random number generated falls within the winning band and the attempt at awarding the prize succeeds. Otherwise the attempt fails. Table 6 gives the varying win band sizes for the probabilities given in Table 5.
Quote:The jackpot draw for each EGD can be conducted by any suitable draw method which has the required overall probability.
Quote:For example, a random number generator can be used for the draw.
Quote:A fixed number range is defined, and divided into two separate sections, the winning band and the losing band.
Quote:A random number is generated over the entire range; if it falls within the winning band the draw is won.
Quote:If it falls outside the wining band into the losing band, the draw is lost.
Quote:The winning band is a percentage of the entire number range, which is equal to the desired win probability.
Quote:Thus, if the win probability is 0.1400%, and the number range is, say, 0 to 4294967295, the winning band is all the numbers from 0 to 6012954.
Quote:The losing band is then 6012955 to 4294967295.
Quote:When calculating the win band size, because division is involved, all results are rounded up to the next whole digit in the range.
Quote:. If the random number generated falls within the winning band and the attempt at awarding the prize succeeds.
this "probability calculation was cherry picked from another patent that is not an IGT patent
this is what i am assuming that IGT is using as a probability calculation
The play costs £1 and there are (initially) the following prizes..
1 x £25 (00)
2 x £10 (01-02)
5 x £5 (03-07)
15 x £2 (08-22)
77 x lose (23-99).
There are a number of these machines spread around the place, this is an essential part of the design (otherwise you would know that after a jackpot you couldn't really win another one).
At your spin the local machine picks a number from 00 to 99 and sends it to the server. The server checks whether that numbered slot/prize has already gone (they may decide that if 01 has gone but 02 hasn't then the win is £10, but I'm assuming it only checks slot 01). Thus in practice you can only win one of the prizes still available.
As a local person you don't know which prizes have gone, or whether there's a deficit or surplus of prizes. Provided there are many machines connected to the server, and the slots are being assigned fairly often to others as well, your chances are fair. From the casino's point of view all 100 slots are used before going onto another set of slots, so the pay-out is guaranteed to reach the desired RTP.
It's similar to a ticket pull system at the local fete, except they possibly try not to admit whether the top prize has already gone!
I'm hoping such a system would be prohibited in UK casinos, as their fruit machines have to be totally random.
Quote: charliepatrickPlease forgive me if I repeat something as I've only had a quick look at the first patent. My personal understanding would give this simple example which has (usually) 100 possible outcomes. In this case we're going to offer a fair game, so the RTP is 100%!
The play costs £1 and there are (initially) the following prizes..
1 x £25 (00)
2 x £10 (01-02)
5 x £5 (03-07)
15 x £2 (08-22)
77 x lose (23-99).
There are a number of these machines spread around the place, this is an essential part of the design (otherwise you would know that after a jackpot you couldn't really win another one).
At your spin the local machine picks a number from 00 to 99 and sends it to the server. The server checks whether that numbered slot/prize has already gone (they may decide that if 01 has gone but 02 hasn't then the win is £10, but I'm assuming it only checks slot 01). Thus in practice you can only win one of the prizes still available.
As a local person you don't know which prizes have gone, or whether there's a deficit or surplus of prizes. Provided there are many machines connected to the server, and the slots are being assigned fairly often to others as well, your chances are fair. From the casino's point of view all 100 slots are used before going onto another set of slots, so the pay-out is guaranteed to reach the desired RTP.
It's similar to a ticket pull system at the local fete, except they possibly try not to admit whether the top prize has already gone!
I'm hoping such a system would be prohibited in UK casinos, as their fruit machines have to be totally random.
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tbh im lost myself so far... what i think i understand as of this point is that there is class 2 gaming AND ( something called a probability calculation OR there is a fully random slot machines ) .... which based on the first couple of paragraphs of the first patent.
Quote: rsactuaryisn't this just saying .. hey... when paying out completely randomly, variance happens and you could potentially go a long time between jackpots, or conversely, you could have large jackpots happen close together. This could cause a swing in your earnings.
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i dont like to think that anything in a patent is unintentionally saying something i believe there is purpose to it all... what you are saying is possible i would guess but the fact that they differentiate between something with a probability calculation and fully random machines and they are clearly differentiating them from class 2 machines... in my mind there is machines out there that are using the possible probability calculation to determine wins and losses and then simply sending the "presentations" to the machines. This sounds like class 2 machines but i think its simply the same tech as class 2 but being used on "fully random" machines.
Quote: heatmapQuote: rsactuaryisn't this just saying .. hey... when paying out completely randomly, variance happens and you could potentially go a long time between jackpots, or conversely, you could have large jackpots happen close together. This could cause a swing in your earnings.
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i dont like to think that anything in a patent is unintentionally saying something i believe there is purpose to it all... what you are saying is possible i would guess but the fact that they differentiate between something with a probability calculation and fully random machines and they are clearly differentiating them from class 2 machines... in my mind there is machines out there that are using the possible probability calculation to determine wins and losses and then simply sending the "presentations" to the machines. This sounds like class 2 machines but i think its simply the same tech as class 2 but being used on "fully random" machines.
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I have done work on games for most of the large slot machine manufacturers creating both Class III games and Class II games. I have no idea what they mean by probability calculations. Most games (Class III) are straight forward. Pick a random number from 1 to the number of symbols on the reel. That is where the reel stops. Repeat for each reel. It is that simple. Class II games tend to be simpler. Choose a number between 1 and 75, repeat excluding previously used numbers. Pretty simple. Central determination systems are generally configured like a barrel raffle. Put a bunch of tickets in a drum (some winners, most losers) and pull one out. That is what the patron gets.
Quote: DRichQuote: heatmapQuote: rsactuaryisn't this just saying .. hey... when paying out completely randomly, variance happens and you could potentially go a long time between jackpots, or conversely, you could have large jackpots happen close together. This could cause a swing in your earnings.
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i dont like to think that anything in a patent is unintentionally saying something i believe there is purpose to it all... what you are saying is possible i would guess but the fact that they differentiate between something with a probability calculation and fully random machines and they are clearly differentiating them from class 2 machines... in my mind there is machines out there that are using the possible probability calculation to determine wins and losses and then simply sending the "presentations" to the machines. This sounds like class 2 machines but i think its simply the same tech as class 2 but being used on "fully random" machines.
link to original post
I have done work on games for most of the large slot machine manufacturers creating both Class III games and Class II games. I have no idea what they mean by probability calculations. Most games (Class III) are straight forward. Pick a random number from 1 to the number of symbols on the reel. That is where the reel stops. Repeat for each reel. It is that simple. Class II games tend to be simpler. Choose a number between 1 and 75, repeat excluding previously used numbers. Pretty simple. Central determination systems are generally configured like a barrel raffle. Put a bunch of tickets in a drum (some winners, most losers) and pull one out. That is what the patron gets.
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Are you interpreting the patent like I am then? As in there being a differentiation between three different types of machines? Fully random as you me and most people understand a slot machine to work like internally, class 2 like pull tab bingo etc, and probability based gaming based on what this patent says? I’m not saying it exists just that it’s defining another class of machine?
Quote: heatmapQuote: DRichQuote: heatmapQuote: rsactuaryisn't this just saying .. hey... when paying out completely randomly, variance happens and you could potentially go a long time between jackpots, or conversely, you could have large jackpots happen close together. This could cause a swing in your earnings.
link to original post
i dont like to think that anything in a patent is unintentionally saying something i believe there is purpose to it all... what you are saying is possible i would guess but the fact that they differentiate between something with a probability calculation and fully random machines and they are clearly differentiating them from class 2 machines... in my mind there is machines out there that are using the possible probability calculation to determine wins and losses and then simply sending the "presentations" to the machines. This sounds like class 2 machines but i think its simply the same tech as class 2 but being used on "fully random" machines.
link to original post
I have done work on games for most of the large slot machine manufacturers creating both Class III games and Class II games. I have no idea what they mean by probability calculations. Most games (Class III) are straight forward. Pick a random number from 1 to the number of symbols on the reel. That is where the reel stops. Repeat for each reel. It is that simple. Class II games tend to be simpler. Choose a number between 1 and 75, repeat excluding previously used numbers. Pretty simple. Central determination systems are generally configured like a barrel raffle. Put a bunch of tickets in a drum (some winners, most losers) and pull one out. That is what the patron gets.
link to original post
Are you interpreting the patent like I am then? As in there being a differentiation between three different types of machines? Fully random as you me and most people understand a slot machine to work like internally, class 2 like pull tab bingo etc, and probability based gaming based on what this patent says? I’m not saying it exists just that it’s defining another class of machine?
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I did not read the patent you posted. All of the slot machines I have worked on Class II, Class III, and CDS have all been randomly determined.
I am a scientist who has a couple of patents that were written by my corporation's patent attorney after interviewing me and looking at my notebooks. And based on this experience of mine, I would imagine the text in your cited patents was written by a below-average patent attorney who was struggling with finding the words to describe certain concepts, and so he wrote some stupid clunky things.
Here in the WOV forum, most of us are acquainted with terminology relating to
- return
- expected value
- stochastic variance
- probabilistic weighting of outcomes
- random number generators
etc.
The patent attorney who wrote the text you've posted seemingly was not familiar with these kinds of concepts and the correct terminology for them. That's all I think it is. Simple incompetence on a niche subject.
Quote: gordonm888When i read the patents I too also immediately noticed the weird paragraph with the phrase "completely random or ... probability calculations."
I am a scientist who has a couple of patents that were written by my corporation's patent attorney after interviewing me and looking at my notebooks. And based on this experience of mine, I would imagine the text in your cited patents was written by a below-average patent attorney who was struggling with finding the words to describe certain concepts, and so he wrote some stupid clunky things.
Here in the WOV forum, most of us are acquainted with terminology relating to
- return
- expected value
- stochastic variance
- probabilistic weighting of outcomes
- random number generators
etc.
The patent attorney who wrote the text you've posted seemingly was not familiar with these kinds of concepts and the correct terminology for them. That's all I think it is. Simple incompetence on a niche subject.
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Hold on here tell me more about the probabilistic weighting of outcomes
I should also mention that the reason I am so focused on the term probability here is because I’m trying to decipher my own state laws and the word probability is in there a lot pertaining to anything from jackpots to other things
