Wild Monkey Pai Gow

The Lodge casino in Blackhawk CO says they will start Face Up Pai Gow this month. I will update when I see it in action.

Barona in San Diego just put in wild monkey Pai gow. Joker is wild, you can surrender half if you have King high or lower, you can double down. Trick is dealer gets 8 cards but if they get the joker they must discard it. Any analysis on this? I figure the 8th card will kill.

Quote: PaiGow

Barona in San Diego just put in wild monkey Pai gow. Joker is wild, you can surrender half if you have King high or lower, you can double down. Trick is dealer gets 8 cards but if they get the joker they must discard it. Any analysis on this? I figure the 8th card will kill.

I love Pai Gow poker, but that game just sounds like it’d be miserable.

Quote: PaiGow

Barona in San Diego just put in wild monkey Pai gow. Joker is wild, you can surrender half if you have King high or lower, you can double down. Trick is dealer gets 8 cards but if they get the joker they must discard it. Any analysis on this? I figure the 8th card will kill.

Is this post real or satire?

Quote: Deucekies

Is this post real or satire?

I don't recall what the rules are here for linking content, but it's real. The Barona website lists the game and there is a pdf of a table card that comes up with a google search.

This thread is a split-off from the one about face up pai gow poker at the NYNY.

Here is a link to the wild monkey rack card.

To summarize, here are the rule differences, as I see it, compared to conventional pai gow poker.

* Player may double down
* Player may surrender with a king-high hand or lower
* No player banking
* Fully wild joker
* Dealer gets eight cards instead of seven. If the joker is one of those eight cards, it is discarded.

The rule card doesn't address the commission issue, but I assume there isn't one, as everybody is trying to get rid of the 5% commission in every game that has it.

I don't know the house way for this, which must be different for eight-card hands, and I haven't touched my fully-wild pai gow poker code in at least ten years and don't know that I trust it. I'm going to see if I can get the math from the game owner.

Quote: Wizard

This thread is a split-off from the one about face up pai gow poker at the NYNY.

Here is a link to the wild monkey rack card.

To summarize, here are the rule differences, as I see it, compared to conventional pai gow poker.

* Player may double down
* Player may surrender with a king-high hand or lower
* No player banking
* Fully wild joker
* Dealer gets eight cards instead of seven. If the joker is one of those eight cards, it is discarded.

The rule card doesn't address the commission issue, but I assume there isn't one, as everybody is trying to get rid of the 5% commission in every game that has it.

I don't know the house way for this, which must be different for eight-card hands, and I haven't touched my fully-wild pai gow poker code in at least ten years and don't know that I trust it. I'm going to see if I can get the math from the game owner.

Masque will be showing this at Cutting Edge next week. It's entered into the BNTG Competition...

Quote: mrsuit31

Masque will be showing this at Cutting Edge next week. It's entered into the BNTG Competition...

Good to know. Will anyone give me even money it comes in the money at the awards ceremony?

Quote: Wizard

Good to know. Will anyone give me even money it comes in the money at the awards ceremony?

I would take the "yes" without even looking at the competition.

Pros, casino POV: fully wild joker
likely higher HE than PGP
no player bank

Cons: significantly lower HPH due to complexities of surrender, dbls, when PGP is already the slowest deal in the house

sorting 8 cards into best 7,

probably a more complex house way making 8 into 7 for the dealer.

Certainly more volatile by far even with the Joker discard.

I think the biggest drawback to PGP is it gets boring and is only even money. But I think everyone who plays PGP would play this (depending on HE), and some who got bored with standard PGP will find this more interesting.

Quote: Wizard

Good to know. Will anyone give me even money it comes in the money at the awards ceremony?

Why don't we take it one step further.... Here is the full list of games in the competition, What are your top 3 guesses?

31 Classic
Booth 119
Presented by: Money$uit Industries, LLC

58 Baccarat
Booth 208
Presented by: Baccawin Gaming, LLC

Bluff
Booth 106
Presented by: Shipman Game Consulting

Double Shot 31
Booth 119
Presented by: Money$uit Industries, LLC

Easy Jack
Booth 109
Presented by: Easy Jack, LLC

Field Goal
Booth 213
Presented by: HMD Entertainment

Flip-it
Booth 204
Presented by: Imaginamics, LLC

Jack Jack
Booth 214
Presented by: Jack Entertainment

Logo Blackjack
Booth 101
Presented by: Extra Wagers, LLC

Lucky 7s
Booth 217
Presented by: Lucky Sevens Gaming Inc.

Magic Blackjack
Booth 210
Presented by: Magicblackjack21.com

Monarchy Baccarat
Booth 201
Presented by: Casino Gaming Development

Multiplier Blackjack
Booth 209
Presented by: Multiplier Blackjack

Player's Blackjack Featuring EZ Bust
Booth 206
Presented by: Genesis Gaming Solutions, Inc.

Poker Burnout
Booth 201
Presented by: Casino Gaming Development

Ricochet Poker
Booth 308
Presented by: Ricochet Poker

Super Pai Gow
Booth 111
Presented by: High Variance Games LLC

Wild Monkey Pai Gow
Booth 314
Presented by: Masque Publishing, Inc.

Yo!
Booth 312
Presented by: Dawn & Billy Takacs

Ok, I haven't looked at all of them, but I'll take, in some order,

31 Classic
Lucky 7s
Wild Monkey PaiGow.

I used to specialize in PGP calculations and analysis. Here are some thoughts on this variant:

Dealer Hands: Dealer will have a straight in about 6% of his 8-card hands and a flush in about 7% of hands (those numbers have some overlap, probably about 12% total.) Dealer will probably have a pair in his 2-card hand with a frequency >50%, compared to about 30% in standard PGP.

In this game, if the joker is not in your hand then you really want the dealer to have the joker. On some fraction of hands, the player decisions (doubling or arranging cards) might be different depending upon whether or not the joker is busy.

House Way
House way may be approximately the same as in standard PGP and in fact may be simplified quite a bit because it is not necessary for the dealer to gain every bit of EV advantage with unusual hands.

House Way could have rules something like:

2 Pair: With top pair JJ-AA, always split the pairs. Otherwise always keep the two pair in the 5-card hand.

8-card hands with one or more of these: straight; flush; 1,2, or 3 pairs - always arrange the hand so that the 2 card hand is as high as possible.
***********
The reason this simplification can be made is that this is an assymetric game - the dealer will get a distribution of hands that is much superior to the player's distribution of hands.

Basically the game designers have given the dealer a large advantage with the 8th card. They achieve their target HE by

1. Other rule changes favorable to player
2. No 5% commission
3. Non-optimal House Way which is far simpler for dealers to learn and execute

Completely Wild Joker
I think that the player's hand distribution will not be greatly changed by the rule that the joker is completely wild. In standard PGP it was already pairing your aces and completing straights and flushes - and making straights and flushes is where the advantage of the joker is in this new variant. There are only approximately 5.5% of player hands in which the joker was merely serving as an Ace kicker (in standard PGP), -in this variant the Ace kicker will be converted into a pair usually in the range of JJ-KK. When the completely wild joker converts the top hand from an Ace-high to a Medium-high pair, that will help a lot, but if it converts the 5 card hand hand from an ace-high to a pair that will not be as much help as you might think - because pairs in the bottom/back hand aren't going to be winning as often as they do in standard PGP. I imagine this rule change improves the player's EV by about 2-2.5%.

Quote: mrsuit31

Why don't we take it one step further.... Here is the full list of games in the competition, What are your top 3 guesses?

Thank you for the list. I know so many people behind these games that I don't want to hurt any feelings with any omissions. However, my window will be open for betting before the award ceremony.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Ok, I haven't looked at all of them, but I'll take, in some order,

31 Classic
Lucky 7s
Wild Monkey PaiGow.

None of them metaled.

The nice guys behind Wild Monkey Pai Gow/Down Under Blackjack kindly provided me with the math report for the partially-wild joker version of Wild Monkey Pai Gow. Based on that, I just wrote up a page on Wild Monkey Pai Gow.

Please be the first to have a look. As always, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections.

Quote: Wizard

The nice guys behind Wild Monkey Pai Gow/Down Under Blackjack kindly provided me with the math report for the partially-wild joker version of Wild Monkey Pai Gow. Based on that, I just wrote up a page on Wild Monkey Pai Gow.

Please be the first to have a look. As always, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections.

Sounds less miserable than I originally thought (I still say I wouldn’t like the fully-wild joker version).

House edge seems pretty decent on the main game and the side bet.

I’d try it out if I got the chance. Would be nice to know a strategy for when to double/surrender.

Quote: ams288

Would be nice to know a strategy for when to double/surrender.

I agree. Can can say the decision probability is divided as follows:

Double: 34.13%
Surrender: 30.20%
Neither: 35.67%

Close to even split between the three, which make for good game design.

Also, seems like there’s a possibility for player collusion to figure out when the dealer has the joker. If it’s a full table and no player has it, there’s a good chance the dealer does.

Would knowing the dealer has the joker (and therefore won’t have that 8th card to make a better hand) change the player’s decision making?

So with optimum arrangements of hands the player wins <20% of the time and loses about 46.5% of the time. Ugh.

So, this game is all about the Fold/Check/Raise decision -because if you always CHECK your hand and otherwise play perfectly (arrange your cards perfectly) the House Edge will be about about 26%.

Of course, here's what we don't know:

The House Way. (The Casino should be required to explain to the player what the House Way is.)
The optimum strategy for arranging your cards (it will be different for 2 pair hands for example and for many hands in which you must choose between your top and bottom hands.)
The strategy for when to fold/surrender.
The strategy for when to Raise/Double.

I expect the house edge to be in the ballpark of 10% because of non-optimal player decisions no matter what the Math report claims. The players may be smart, good players but they are at an enormous informational disadvantage. What a stinky way to introduce a game.

One of the advantages to the player dealt a joker who doesn't use it in a straight, flush or to make a group of Aces, it can always create a pair (I'm guessing with a natural pair it's best to make two pair rather than trips) and it will match your highest card.

As a fun game consider the same idea with a modified Casino War but
(a) You Lose Ties
(b) You have to win by 4 to Win (e.g. 6 beats 2, but stands off against 3-5) (Actually you fold 6 but play 7!)
(c) You can surrender any card
(d) You can double your bet (technically 10 or higher).
The House Edge is 1.6% and your chances of winning 27% Losing 21% Folding 38%.
Logiclally this is similar to games where you raise or fold but allowed to triple your bet.

When I saw the game at Cutting Edge, I did not notice that the joker was fully wild. Either they changed that, or never told me otherwise

Quote: FCBLComish

When I saw the game at Cutting Edge, I did not notice that the joker was fully wild. Either they changed that, or never told me otherwise

I thought they played the partially-wild version there.

Hard pass.

I KNOW I would play this game. It obviously requires more thinking, and certainly will require alterations in strategy depending on whether you see the joker in your hand (or anyone else at the table). If 6 hands are dealt (42 cards) and you know the joker is still out your likelihood of doubling will increase to many more hands than a basic strategy would say.
I would assume the dealer basic strategy would far more favor attempting to push hands, as 1/3 of players would have already surrendered, and the 2/3 remaining would have disproportionally good hands. So as an example my casino now will play a pair of jacks with an ace instead of a straight with a jack high, clearly this new game would play the straight.
Bring it on!

Quote: charliepatrick

One of the advantages to the player dealt a joker who doesn't use it in a straight, flush or to make a group of Aces, it can always create a pair (I'm guessing with a natural pair it's best to make two pair rather than trips) and it will match your highest card.

This comment stimulated me to think a little more about the effect of the joker going from semi-wild to completely wild as it does in Wild Monkey Pai Gow.

I went back into an old Pai Gow spreadsheet and teased out some statistics on a dealer's hand when we know it has the semi-wild joker. This would be equivalent to a player's hand assuming he arranges his hand according to the House Way.

When we know player/dealer has a semi-wild joker, this is the frequency of hands categories that are arranged in his bottom hand in standard PGP.

Bottom Hand	Frequency
> Flush	0.0061
Flush	0.0535
Straight	0.1866
Trips	0.0327
2 Pairs	0.3117
1 Pr: AA	0.0569
1 Pr: 22-KK	0.2679
Ace High	0.0845

So you can see that the bottom hand has a straight or flush about 24% of the time. I assume that the joker is involved in those bottom hands the great majority of times.

Here is the same table for the 2-card top hands in standard PGP when we know the 7-card hand has a semi-wild joker.

Top Hand	Frequency
Pair: AA	0.0024
Pair: 22-KK	0.1395
Ace High	0.5749
King High	0.1004
<King High	0.1828

Notice that an Ace High in the top hand occurs with a frequency of 57.5%! The AA pair rarely occurs in the top hand - that's because when the joker pairs an ace to make 2 (or more pair), the AA pair will almost always be arranged in the bottom 5-card hand.

Now, in conventional Pai Gow, what would be the effect on EV of converting the semi-wild joker into a completely wild joker?

When the player holds a joker, which is 7/53 or 13.2% of the hands, I conclude that the completely wild joker will improve either the top or bottom hand about 66% of the time. I looked at the various categories of hands and made some rough estimates on the amount of improvement in EV in each category that would be realized by converting the semi-wild joker into a completely wild joker.

I estimate that converting the semi-wild joker into a completely wild joker in standard Pai-Gow would be worth about 3.6% to the player. I made some SWAGs, so let's say the range of EV improvement is 3-4% for standard PGP.

Now, Wild Monkey PGP is a different game than standard PGP, with different distribution of dealer hands and different options for the player, so it might be that a completely wild joker in Wild Monkey would not have as significant an EV impact as 3-4%. I don't know.