Bacc. Tiger Bonus Beatable?
February 6th, 2017 at 2:55:32 PM
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Anyone analysed this Bacc side bet? If Non-Naturals win by 9 pays 30-1 and descending payscale from there? Countable taking into account 9 and 8 rich decks??
Wanda Wilcox: “I can’t stand people. I hate them.”
Chinaski: “Oh, yeah?”
Wanda: “You hate them?”
Chinaski: “No, but I seem to feel better when they’re not around.”
Barfly, starring Mickey Rourke
February 7th, 2017 at 6:50:55 AM
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Here is a run of 20 million 8-deck shoes based on counts of how many 8s and how many 9s were left in the shoe
Note that, in Nevada at least, while keeping a written track of the player and banker wins and ties is allowed,
keeping a written track of how many 8s and 9s have appeared is not.
Do not PM me with any requests for further information
Rows indicate how many 9s were remaining; columns indicate how many 8s
The number in each cell is the expected value of a bet of 1
Blank cells are where the situation occurred fewer than once per 10,000 shoes
From the looks of it, the only APs that showed up look like they require some serious waiting.
EDIT: I did a subsequent run of 20 million shoes that was limited to situations that happened at least once per 1000 shoes, and all of them had negative EV.
Note that, in Nevada at least, while keeping a written track of the player and banker wins and ties is allowed,
keeping a written track of how many 8s and 9s have appeared is not.
Do not PM me with any requests for further information
Rows indicate how many 9s were remaining; columns indicate how many 8s
The number in each cell is the expected value of a bet of 1
Blank cells are where the situation occurred fewer than once per 10,000 shoes
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | -0.0851 | -0.0513 | -0.0372 | -0.029 | -0.0292 | -0.0285 | -0.0251 | -0.0273 | -0.0246 | -0.0071 | -0.003 |
| 1 | -0.0548 | -0.0393 | -0.031 | -0.0269 | -0.0243 | -0.0258 | -0.0268 | -0.0243 | -0.0256 | -0.016 | -0.0396 |
| 2 | -0.0414 | -0.0303 | -0.0273 | -0.0256 | -0.0267 | -0.0258 | -0.0249 | -0.0251 | -0.0237 | -0.0263 | -0.0277 |
| 3 | -0.0319 | -0.0299 | -0.0254 | -0.0271 | -0.0258 | -0.0243 | -0.0251 | -0.0278 | -0.0239 | -0.0264 | -0.029 |
| 4 | -0.0251 | -0.0274 | -0.0283 | -0.025 | -0.0259 | -0.0272 | -0.0251 | -0.0261 | -0.0271 | -0.0242 | -0.0307 |
| 5 | -0.0253 | -0.0309 | -0.0245 | -0.0261 | -0.0244 | -0.0256 | -0.0266 | -0.0266 | -0.0273 | -0.025 | -0.0249 |
| 6 | -0.0231 | -0.0256 | -0.0235 | -0.0261 | -0.0263 | -0.0267 | -0.0273 | -0.0258 | -0.0266 | -0.0282 | -0.0258 |
| 7 | -0.0319 | -0.0264 | -0.0288 | -0.0233 | -0.025 | -0.0246 | -0.0259 | -0.0253 | -0.0255 | -0.0272 | -0.0254 |
| 8 | -0.045 | -0.0254 | -0.0253 | -0.0253 | -0.0275 | -0.0274 | -0.026 | -0.0247 | -0.0265 | -0.0256 | -0.0251 |
| 9 | -0.0259 | -0.0394 | -0.0254 | -0.0247 | -0.0282 | -0.0255 | -0.0264 | -0.0266 | -0.0247 | -0.0259 | -0.0252 |
| 10 | 0.0055 | -0.022 | -0.0282 | -0.0236 | -0.0258 | -0.0257 | -0.027 | -0.0253 | -0.0265 | -0.0287 | -0.0255 |
| 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.063 | ||||||||||
| 1 | -0.0168 | -0.0211 | 0.0203 | 0.0808 | |||||||
| 2 | -0.0364 | -0.0222 | -0.018 | -0.05 | -0.0298 | -0.102 | |||||
| 3 | -0.0323 | -0.0318 | -0.0323 | -0.0301 | -0.023 | -0.0552 | -0.0513 | ||||
| 4 | -0.0295 | -0.0285 | -0.0225 | -0.0358 | 0.0031 | -0.0376 | -0.0136 | -0.0263 | 0.0629 | ||
| 5 | -0.0237 | -0.0265 | -0.0193 | -0.0304 | -0.0326 | -0.0399 | -0.0221 | -0.0324 | -0.0327 | -0.0596 | |
| 6 | -0.0246 | -0.0287 | -0.0216 | -0.023 | -0.0316 | -0.0308 | -0.0174 | -0.0253 | -0.0252 | -0.0023 | 0.004 |
| 7 | -0.0291 | -0.0265 | -0.0262 | -0.0211 | -0.0205 | -0.0196 | -0.0239 | -0.0253 | -0.0455 | -0.0235 | 0.0138 |
| 8 | -0.0267 | -0.0223 | -0.0245 | -0.0255 | -0.028 | -0.0204 | -0.028 | -0.0295 | -0.022 | -0.0257 | 0.0105 |
| 9 | -0.0242 | -0.0267 | -0.0269 | -0.026 | -0.0263 | -0.0241 | -0.0308 | -0.0206 | -0.0211 | -0.0263 | -0.0224 |
| 10 | -0.0278 | -0.0248 | -0.0252 | -0.0248 | -0.0273 | -0.0221 | -0.0296 | -0.0251 | -0.0268 | -0.0176 | -0.029 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | |||||||||||
| 1 | |||||||||||
| 2 | |||||||||||
| 3 | |||||||||||
| 4 | |||||||||||
| 5 | |||||||||||
| 6 | |||||||||||
| 7 | -0.0263 | ||||||||||
| 8 | -0.0684 | -0.0508 | |||||||||
| 9 | -0.0145 | -0.0451 | 0.012 | ||||||||
| 10 | -0.034 | -0.0426 | -0.0203 | -0.013 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.0422 | -0.0273 | -0.0337 | -0.0263 | -0.025 | -0.0293 | -0.0259 | -0.0277 | -0.025 | -0.0257 | -0.0258 |
| 12 | -0.0258 | -0.0247 | -0.0239 | -0.027 | -0.022 | -0.0273 | -0.0245 | -0.0259 | -0.0253 | -0.0264 | |
| 13 | -0.041 | -0.0482 | -0.014 | -0.0336 | -0.0246 | -0.0281 | -0.0237 | -0.0238 | -0.0268 | -0.0252 | |
| 14 | 0.021 | 0.0208 | -0.0257 | -0.0207 | -0.0338 | -0.0327 | -0.0264 | -0.0252 | -0.0265 | -0.0257 | |
| 15 | -0.038 | -0.0154 | -0.0415 | -0.0356 | -0.0265 | -0.0277 | -0.0294 | -0.0263 | -0.0242 | ||
| 16 | 0.0232 | -0.0681 | -0.0536 | -0.0281 | -0.028 | -0.0294 | -0.0207 | -0.0274 | -0.0223 | ||
| 17 | -0.0137 | -0.0105 | -0.0247 | -0.0228 | -0.0224 | -0.0276 | -0.0273 | -0.0289 | |||
| 18 | -0.0025 | -0.0293 | -0.005 | -0.0294 | -0.0247 | -0.0295 | -0.0237 | ||||
| 19 | -0.0474 | -0.045 | -0.0406 | -0.0389 | -0.0127 | -0.0266 | -0.0228 | ||||
| 20 | -0.0426 | -0.0168 | -0.0398 | -0.0205 | -0.0263 | -0.0294 | |||||
| 21 | -0.0913 | -0.0004 | -0.0026 | -0.0192 | -0.011 |
| 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | -0.0249 | -0.0244 | -0.0257 | -0.0261 | -0.0251 | -0.0277 | -0.0264 | -0.0297 | -0.0222 | -0.032 | -0.0273 |
| 12 | -0.0271 | -0.0264 | -0.0263 | -0.0242 | -0.026 | -0.025 | -0.0242 | -0.0258 | -0.0257 | -0.0311 | -0.0291 |
| 13 | -0.0259 | -0.0274 | -0.0263 | -0.0258 | -0.0249 | -0.0268 | -0.0262 | -0.0245 | -0.0254 | -0.0257 | -0.0287 |
| 14 | -0.0269 | -0.0262 | -0.0251 | -0.026 | -0.025 | -0.0246 | -0.0275 | -0.0274 | -0.0285 | -0.029 | -0.021 |
| 15 | -0.0273 | -0.0253 | -0.0263 | -0.0249 | -0.0267 | -0.025 | -0.0252 | -0.0242 | -0.025 | -0.0278 | -0.0275 |
| 16 | -0.0255 | -0.0252 | -0.0241 | -0.0245 | -0.0246 | -0.0238 | -0.0255 | -0.0269 | -0.0258 | -0.0261 | -0.0263 |
| 17 | -0.0291 | -0.026 | -0.0251 | -0.0259 | -0.0264 | -0.0259 | -0.0268 | -0.0235 | -0.0282 | -0.0259 | -0.0274 |
| 18 | -0.0235 | -0.0305 | -0.0284 | -0.0255 | -0.0262 | -0.0266 | -0.0257 | -0.0255 | -0.0257 | -0.0268 | -0.0267 |
| 19 | -0.0255 | -0.022 | -0.0271 | -0.0286 | -0.024 | -0.0265 | -0.0251 | -0.0243 | -0.0269 | -0.0261 | -0.0247 |
| 20 | -0.0254 | -0.0268 | -0.027 | -0.0247 | -0.0249 | -0.0259 | -0.0265 | -0.0279 | -0.027 | -0.0263 | -0.0253 |
| 21 | -0.0267 | -0.0241 | -0.0251 | -0.0259 | -0.0256 | -0.0237 | -0.0244 | -0.027 | -0.0243 | -0.0273 | -0.026 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | -0.0287 | -0.0068 | -0.0384 | -0.0568 | -0.0959 | ||||||
| 12 | -0.0285 | -0.0345 | -0.0326 | -0.0326 | 0.0266 | -0.0327 | |||||
| 13 | -0.0287 | -0.0343 | -0.0245 | -0.0204 | -0.0388 | 0.0224 | 0.0579 | ||||
| 14 | -0.0255 | -0.0197 | -0.0242 | -0.0138 | -0.026 | -0.0053 | -0.0717 | ||||
| 15 | -0.0251 | -0.0248 | -0.0235 | -0.0288 | -0.0302 | -0.0191 | -0.0815 | -0.0102 | |||
| 16 | -0.0263 | -0.0263 | -0.0311 | -0.0252 | -0.028 | -0.0264 | -0.0346 | -0.033 | -0.0834 | ||
| 17 | -0.0264 | -0.025 | -0.0263 | -0.0272 | -0.0171 | -0.026 | -0.0062 | -0.041 | 0.0469 | ||
| 18 | -0.0266 | -0.0246 | -0.0238 | -0.0288 | -0.0249 | -0.0236 | -0.0296 | -0.0268 | -0.0108 | 0.0636 | |
| 19 | -0.0263 | -0.0268 | -0.0251 | -0.0269 | -0.0237 | -0.0284 | -0.0219 | -0.0274 | -0.0485 | 0.0233 | |
| 20 | -0.0266 | -0.0232 | -0.0261 | -0.0252 | -0.0259 | -0.0246 | -0.0235 | -0.0281 | -0.0311 | -0.0066 | |
| 21 | -0.0257 | -0.0255 | -0.0276 | -0.027 | -0.0238 | -0.0255 | -0.0269 | -0.0251 | -0.0189 | -0.0135 | -0.0336 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | -0.0199 | -0.0348 | -0.027 | -0.0082 | |||||||
| 23 | -0.0129 | -0.0018 | -0.0134 | ||||||||
| 24 | -0.0291 | 0.0092 | |||||||||
| 25 | -0.0231 | ||||||||||
| 26 | |||||||||||
| 27 | |||||||||||
| 28 | |||||||||||
| 29 | |||||||||||
| 30 | |||||||||||
| 31 | |||||||||||
| 32 |
| 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | -0.0337 | -0.0302 | -0.0288 | -0.0223 | -0.0292 | -0.0262 | -0.0263 | -0.0274 | -0.0272 | -0.0259 | -0.0262 |
| 23 | -0.0281 | -0.0248 | -0.0254 | -0.0254 | -0.0248 | -0.0297 | -0.024 | -0.0288 | -0.0265 | -0.0246 | -0.0268 |
| 24 | -0.0143 | -0.0193 | -0.0207 | -0.0228 | -0.0139 | -0.0244 | -0.0282 | -0.026 | -0.0259 | -0.0283 | -0.0236 |
| 25 | -0.0431 | -0.0604 | -0.0167 | -0.0201 | -0.0263 | -0.0256 | -0.0213 | -0.026 | -0.0261 | -0.0243 | -0.027 |
| 26 | -0.0757 | 0.0202 | 0.0059 | -0.0074 | -0.0341 | -0.0215 | -0.0284 | -0.0268 | -0.0199 | -0.0282 | -0.0256 |
| 27 | -0.0886 | 0.0185 | -0.0849 | -0.0535 | -0.0203 | -0.0294 | -0.0218 | -0.0251 | -0.029 | -0.0274 | |
| 28 | -0.0309 | -0.0557 | -0.0561 | -0.0385 | -0.0223 | -0.0268 | -0.0255 | -0.0308 | -0.027 | ||
| 29 | -0.0349 | -0.0212 | -0.0288 | -0.0231 | -0.0365 | -0.0396 | -0.0257 | ||||
| 30 | -0.1476 | -0.0197 | -0.0312 | -0.011 | -0.0353 | -0.0259 | |||||
| 31 | 0.0067 | -0.0088 | -0.019 | -0.0204 | |||||||
| 32 | 0.012 |
| 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | -0.0265 | -0.0278 | -0.0272 | -0.0265 | -0.0245 | -0.0291 | -0.0239 | -0.0234 | -0.0345 | -0.0362 | -0.0261 |
| 23 | -0.027 | -0.0271 | -0.0251 | -0.0244 | -0.0263 | -0.0231 | -0.0281 | -0.0289 | -0.0277 | -0.034 | -0.0387 |
| 24 | -0.0272 | -0.0275 | -0.0257 | -0.0254 | -0.0256 | -0.0259 | -0.0263 | -0.0234 | -0.0216 | -0.0134 | -0.0327 |
| 25 | -0.0263 | -0.0256 | -0.0251 | -0.0258 | -0.0247 | -0.0282 | -0.0256 | -0.0239 | -0.0259 | -0.0247 | -0.0212 |
| 26 | -0.0248 | -0.028 | -0.0268 | -0.0255 | -0.026 | -0.0242 | -0.0253 | -0.0282 | -0.0278 | -0.0236 | -0.0307 |
| 27 | -0.0274 | -0.028 | -0.0235 | -0.0248 | -0.0248 | -0.0252 | -0.0251 | -0.0264 | -0.0239 | -0.0291 | -0.0297 |
| 28 | -0.0247 | -0.0266 | -0.0278 | -0.0265 | -0.0263 | -0.026 | -0.0263 | -0.0266 | -0.0259 | -0.0251 | -0.0266 |
| 29 | -0.0199 | -0.0235 | -0.0256 | -0.0268 | -0.0255 | -0.0266 | -0.0265 | -0.025 | -0.0249 | -0.0263 | -0.0251 |
| 30 | -0.0286 | -0.027 | -0.0256 | -0.0265 | -0.0264 | -0.0237 | -0.0264 | -0.0258 | -0.026 | -0.0259 | -0.0264 |
| 31 | -0.0358 | -0.0221 | -0.0286 | -0.0266 | -0.0238 | -0.0263 | -0.0261 | -0.0261 | -0.0246 | -0.0264 | -0.0264 |
| 32 | -0.0103 | -0.0577 | -0.0243 | -0.0234 | -0.028 | -0.022 | -0.0244 | -0.0255 | -0.0264 | -0.01 | -0.0286 |
From the looks of it, the only APs that showed up look like they require some serious waiting.
EDIT: I did a subsequent run of 20 million shoes that was limited to situations that happened at least once per 1000 shoes, and all of them had negative EV.
February 9th, 2017 at 2:31:50 PM
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ThatDonGuy,
You have exceeded all expectations on level of member support. Thank you so much for being such a valuable contibutor to this great forum!
You have exceeded all expectations on level of member support. Thank you so much for being such a valuable contibutor to this great forum!
Wanda Wilcox: “I can’t stand people. I hate them.”
Chinaski: “Oh, yeah?”
Wanda: “You hate them?”
Chinaski: “No, but I seem to feel better when they’re not around.”
Barfly, starring Mickey Rourke
