PRICE IS RIGHT SHOWCASE SHOWDOWN
If you want the odds of it being done in two spins for every player (No $1.00 spins), then...
Odds of missing the $1.00 on the first spin: 0.95
Odds of completing the $1.00 on the second spin: 0.05
0.95 x 0.05 = 0.0475
0.0475^3 = 0.0001071719
Should happen like that once every 9,330.8 Showcase Showdowns.
This is assuming truly random spins, and assumes the player will go for the $1.00 every time. The odds are actually less because if the first player spins a $0.65 or higher, that player is likely to not spin again.
Quote: DeucekiesI'll take a crack at it.
If you want the odds of it being done in two spins for every player (No $1.00 spins), then...
Odds of missing the $1.00 on the first spin: 0.95
Odds of completing the $1.00 on the second spin: 0.05
0.95 x 0.05 = 0.0475
0.0475^3 = 0.0001071719
Should happen like that once every 9,330.8 Showcase Showdowns.
This is assuming truly random spins, and assumes the player will go for the $1.00 every time. The odds are actually less because if the first player spins a $0.65 or higher, that player is likely to not spin again.
Is the .05 + .95 the only way to reach exactly $1?
Something else occurs to me--in this scenario, you would be more likely than usual to see a $1 total from the second and third players, because if they spun and got .95, they would spin again, knowing they would lose if they didn't, having seen the first player hit $1. Normally, if a player hits .95, they wouldn't spin a second time at all.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikQuote: DeucekiesI'll take a crack at it.
If you want the odds of it being done in two spins for every player (No $1.00 spins), then...
Odds of missing the $1.00 on the first spin: 0.95
Odds of completing the $1.00 on the second spin: 0.05
0.95 x 0.05 = 0.0475
0.0475^3 = 0.0001071719
Should happen like that once every 9,330.8 Showcase Showdowns.
This is assuming truly random spins, and assumes the player will go for the $1.00 every time. The odds are actually less because if the first player spins a $0.65 or higher, that player is likely to not spin again.
Is the .05 + .95 the only way to reach exactly $1?
No. Those decimals are percentages.
Odds of missing the $1.00 on the first spin: 95%
Odds of completing the $1.00 on the second spin: 5%
95% x 5% = 4.75%
4.75%^3 = 0.01071719%
First, let's assume that the first player will only spin again if their total is $0.65 or lower.
p(first player $1) = 0.05 (first spin) + 0.65*0.05 (two spins) = 0.0825
p(second player $1) = p(third player $1) = 0.05 + 0.95*0.05 = 0.0975
p(3 x $1) = 0.0825*0.0975^2 = 0.000784 ~= 1 in 1275
Quote: supermaxhdThanks for the math. I saw that this happened and I was curious. I thought it may have been more rare than 1 in 1275.
At 240 episodes per year, it still only happens about once every 3 years.
Quote: CrystalMathAt 240 episodes per year, it still only happens about once every 3 years.
240? Where do you get that from? I count 190 on this season's taping and airdate schedule. (It goes off the bottom of the page, but the last episode of the season is 6/22, except for the military special on 7/4 and a "back to school" episode sometime in August. There are 199 weekdays from 9/19/2016 to 6/22/2017, plus 7/4 and the August episode, minus pre-emptions on Thanksgiving and Inauguration Day, and repeats on the day after Thanksgiving, the four days after Cyber Monday, and the four days after Monday of the first week of the NCAA men's basketball tournament; 199 + 2 - 11 = 190.)
Quote: ThatDonGuy240? Where do you get that from? I count 190 on this season's taping and airdate schedule. (It goes off the bottom of the page, but the last episode of the season is 6/22, except for the military special on 7/4 and a "back to school" episode sometime in August. There are 199 weekdays from 9/19/2016 to 6/22/2017, plus 7/4 and the August episode, minus pre-emptions on Thanksgiving and Inauguration Day, and repeats on the day after Thanksgiving, the four days after Cyber Monday, and the four days after Monday of the first week of the NCAA men's basketball tournament; 199 + 2 - 11 = 190.)
I took someone else's answer on faith. So, it should happen about every 3.4 years.
Quote: CrystalMathAt 240 episodes per year, it still only happens about once every 3 years.
My gut too is that it would be more rare than once every 3-5 years. In fact, I don't think I've EVER heard of it happening before.
Quote: rsactuaryMy gut too is that it would be more rare than once every 3-5 years. In fact, I don't think I've EVER heard of it happening before.
Apparently, from the experts at golden-road.net, this is the third time it has happened; the first two were 9/27/1991 and 10/30/2003.
But the show's been airing for like 20 years and I thought they said this is the first time that's ever happened? Could we have a large enough sampling size to conclude the wheel is not random? Time to AP PIR! =DQuote: CrystalMathAt 240 episodes per year, it still only happens about once every 3 years.
Given that there have been approximately 8000 episodes, and assuming that this has happened 3 times (according to a previous post), the odds of this occurring 3 or fewer times is about 1 in 670. So, there's not enough evidence to show there's a problem.
Quote: RomesBut the show's been airing for like 20 years and I thought they said this is the first time that's ever happened? Could we have a large enough sampling size to conclude the wheel is not random? Time to AP PIR! =D
They're wrong. This is the first time it's happened with three different two-spin combos, but a three-way tie on $1.00 has happened at least three times before.
