Race the Ace
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6 members have voted
I just did an analysis of a Derby-based game, but using cards. For all the details, please see my new page on Race the Ace. As you can see, the return ranges from 50.71% to 97.26%, so it matters a lot on what you bet on.
As always, I welcome questions, comments, and especially corrections.
The question for the poll is would you play Race the Ace?
Quote: AyecarumbaAre draws that contain 5-7 of the same suit simply discarded? If I had a "pre" bet and always had to race three other suits instead of occasionally only having to race two others, I would feel ripped off (even if one of the disqualified suits was mine a quarter of the time).
Yes, they seem to be. The probability of getting 5 or more of one suit in a random deal is 0.028956823. I've played the game at least 50 times and never seen it happen. Maybe I'm just not patient enough, but what odds would they pay on that suit where it is impossible to win.
Quote: mipletThe pays and probabily headings are reversed.
Thanks. Frequently made mistake.
Quote: WizardThanks for the correction on the table headings.
Yes, they seem to be. The probability of getting 5 or more of one suit in a random deal is 0.028956823. I've played the game at least 50 times and never seen it happen. Maybe I'm just not patient enough, but what odds would they pay on that suit where it is impossible to win.
If they offered 50,000 to 1, I think a lot of people would play it.
Quote: WizardThanks for the correction on the table headings.
Yes, they seem to be. The probability of getting 5 or more of one suit in a random deal is 0.028956823. I've played the game at least 50 times and never seen it happen. Maybe I'm just not patient enough, but what odds would they pay on that suit where it is impossible to win.
From here:
Quote:When the form cards are picked in the getTopSeven() method, a check is carried out to ensure that no suit has more than 4 cards in the set, as this would render that suit unable to win. If this does occur, the deck is thrown away and a new draw started. This is carried out silently.
Quote: Wizard's Race the Ace WoO Page
9. The first ace to advance eight times shall win and bets on the suit of that ace shall win.
Quote: The Analysis on Miplet's linkGame Description
Race the Ace is a standard-deck card game where the aces of each suit 'race' up an 8 position race track. Cards
are presented from a shuffled deck, and the suit of the turned card progresses its respective ace forward one
space on the race track. The first ace to step forward 7 times to the finish is declared the winner.
Quote: mipletFrom here:
Thanks! What would I do without you?
I think there are jobs for people that search for hard to find things on the Internet. My daughter had a summer job in a law firm and spent some of her time searching for obscure stuff. Just an idea if you're ever looking for a career change.
Quote: AyecarumbaDoes the winning Ace need to move seven times or eight times in order to resolve the game?
Eight. You can clearly see that on the practice game.
Quote: RomesFrom one nerd (a badge I wear with pride) to another I love how passionate you are about the little things. How did that possibly take less than 1 second? You must have like quad core top of the line gear...
Thank you! The core speed wasn't the issue. Just an efficient way of programming it.
What I wanted to hear was 1 in 675,000.
Quote: WizardI was hoping somebody would vote for "How did you analyze that, Wiz?" I show there are 293,173,253,532,241,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 ways a race could play out, and that considers suits only, not ranks. The report Milplet pointed to used random simulation (of only 7 million games *hmph*). I'm proud to say I used exact math and it took my computer less than a second.
That same site with the report also lists a bunch of games, just look at the directory (including parent directories). I am ashamed that whoever did the math for 6 shooter and sharp shooter used a simulation of 500,000 and 1,000,000 games respectively.
Quote: 487tracydriveI need a nerd code book. Seems like when I ask a nerd,what are the chances of something happening, he says 0.000001481.
What I wanted to hear was 1 in 675,000.
I think it is on page 26 of the Nerd Code to express probabilities on the 0 to 1 scale, unless you're deliberately trying to dumb it down.
Quote: mipletI am ashamed that whoever did the math for 6 shooter and sharp shooter used a simulation of 500,000 and 1,000,000 games respectively.
That is painful. They probably didn't have much computer time after running all the punch cards through.
Quote: WizardI think it is on page 26 of the Nerd Code to express probabilities on the 0 to 1 scale, unless you're deliberately trying to dumb it down.
A biologist, a chemist and a statistician are out hunting.
The biologist shoots at a deer and misses five feet to the left.
The chemist shoots at the same deer and misses five feet to the right.
The statistician shouts, “We got him!”
