Probability in Baccarat

If my bankroll is $100 and I am trying to get to $4 10 times for example I get $104 I take off $4. I play $2 a bet on player.
If I use martingale which the banker has to win 8 times for me to lose it all.
Is the probability for me to get to $4 10 times high with a bankroll of $100 and the martingale system?

My martingale system with $100
first bet is $2
second bet is $2
third bet is $4
fourth bet $8
fifth bet is $16
six bet $32
seventh bet $64
eight bet all of it $36

Or should I just flat bet? since I get over 80% chance of getting to 1 united?

Quote: islandman4life

If my bankroll is $100
and I am trying to get to $4

10 times
for example I get $104
I take off $4.
I play $2 a bet on player.

betting $2 each time on Player with a $100 bankroll means you have 50 betting units ($100/$2)

here is a table for PLAYER bet at 50 units

start bank	unit gain	end bank	Player	Player Ruin	Fair	Fair Ruin
50	1	51	96.42%	3.58%	98.04%	1.96%
50	2	52	92.99%	7.01%	96.15%	3.85%
50	3	53	89.72%	10.28%	94.34%	5.66%
50	4	54	86.58%	13.42%	92.59%	7.41%
50	5	55	83.58%	16.42%	90.91%	9.09%
50	6	56	80.71%	19.29%	89.29%	10.71%
50	7	57	77.95%	22.05%	87.72%	12.28%
50	8	58	75.31%	24.69%	86.21%	13.79%
50	9	59	72.78%	27.22%	84.75%	15.25%
50	10	60	70.34%	29.66%	83.33%	16.67%
50	20	70	50.62%	49.38%	71.43%	28.57%
50	30	80	36.99%	63.01%	62.50%	37.50%

one can see to win your $4 each time (2 units) = 92.99%
or say 93 out of 100 tries

so you win a total of 93*$4=$372
and you lose $100 7 times = -$700

not a very good total
<< >>
if you won 94 times and lost only 6 times
your net = 376 + -600
still a loser

if you won 95 times and lost only 5 times
your net = 380 + -500

if you won 96 times and lost only 4 times
your net = 384 + -400

if you won 97 times and lost only 3 times
your net = 388 + -300 = +$88!

maybe
Marty (yours posted) does better and has more fun trying
(I do not think so as your progression is not a Marty)
Sally

also
to win $4 (or lose $100) requires an average number of bets = about 121
64 games is required on average to win just the $4

you are more likely to lose the first bet and now need to win 3 more than you lose

Quote: islandman4life

If my bankroll is $100 and I am trying to get to $4 10 times for example I get $104 I take off $4. I play $2 a bet on player.

Ignoring the house edge ( which we can reasonably do, because you crash and burn anyway, even ignoring it. )

Probability to get from $100 to $104 once without going bust is 100/104=0.96 or 96%
Whoop de do.
Probability of doing it 10 times in a row is
0.96 x 0.96 x 0.96 X 0.96 x 0.96 X 0.96 x 0.96 X 0.96 x 0.96 X 0.96=0.664 or 66%

Near as dammit 66% chance of turning $100 into $140
Which leaves 34% chance of losing one of those lots of $100. Maybe the first try, maybe the tenth try. If it's the first try, you don't get to have the second third, . . . ninth try unless you go to the ATM and draw another $100.

Yes. My numbers differ from Sally's, because I kept it super simple for simple minds. I ignored house edge.

Quote: islandman4life

If I use martingale which the banker has to win 8 times for me to lose it all.

Wrong Wrong WRONG!!!!

Start with 100
lose 2 you have 98 left
lose another 2 you have 96 left
lose another 4 you have 92 left
lose another 8 you have 84 left
lose another 16 you have 68 left
lose another 32 you have 36 left
lose another 36 you have nothing left.

You can only lose 7 times before you are busted, not 8
and if your last bet of 36 wins, you are still down.

I've ignored all commissions and house edges.

Quote:

Is the probability for me to get to $4 10 times high with a bankroll of $100 and the martingale system?

Martingale is possibly your best chance of hitting target and I did the calculations above
Your probability can never be better than 66.4% of suceeding 10 times in a row. It can be worse.

Quote:

My martingale system with $100
first bet is $2
second bet is $2
third bet is $4
fourth bet $8
fifth bet is $16
six bet $32
seventh bet $64
eight bet all of it $36

Where did you get that last $64 and $36 from? Did you have it stashed in your shoe? You had already lost $64 of your $100 by bet 6?

This maths is not at all complicated. stop asking slight variations on the same simple question.

Quote: islandman4life

If my bankroll is $100 and I am trying to get to $4 10 times for example I get $104 I take off $4. I play $2 a bet on player.
If I use martingale which the banker has to win 8 times for me to lose it all.
Is the probability for me to get to $4 10 times high with a bankroll of $100 and the martingale system?

My martingale system with $100
first bet is $2
second bet is $2
third bet is $4
fourth bet $8
fifth bet is $16
six bet $32
seventh bet $64
eight bet all of it $36

I hope you realize when you get to $104, and "take $4 off" to 'reset' your bankroll at $100... The odds and cards don't care. It's literally the exact same thing as if you never cashed out until you got to $140, then cashed out.

Quote: Romes

I hope you realize when you get to $104, and "take $4 off" to 'reset' your bankroll at $100... The odds and cards don't care. It's literally the exact same thing as if you never cashed out until you got to $140, then cashed out.

Ah, but when he 'takes off' that $4 it is safe and cannot be lost to any gambling addiction. He can buy beer or a haircut with it.

His $100 is also safe because rare events hardly ever happen. Heck. no chance banker would win 8 times in a row
$:o)

Money for nothin' and your chicks for free.
$:o)

What if I bet $5 each time on the banker to gain $4 10 times and martingale it out.
Or will it make sense to play blackjack instead to achieve that goal?

Quote: islandman4life

What if I bet $5 each time on the banker to gain $4 10 times and martingale it out.

What if you work it out for yourself?

Quote: islandman4life

What if I bet $5 each time on the banker to gain $4 10 times and martingale it out.
Or will it make sense to play blackjack instead to achieve that goal?

I can't tell if you've stopped being serious or not. ANY bets that don't change the house edge such as playing straight up or using a "betting system" such as the martingale WILL NOT WIN over the long run.

If you're just doing this for fun, then have fun doing whatever you want. You don't really need any kind of mathematical analysis to have fun in the game. Go with your gut, cash out whenever you want/can, etc.

If you're trying to make any money then just stop. This is not a money making endeavor that will end well for you.

I am interested in taking risks.

Quote: Romes

I can't tell if you've stopped being serious or not.

Quote: OnceDear

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ32BZT9pnk

Why you trolling?

Quote: islandman4life

I am interested in taking risks.

But what you're trying to do isn't a risk. It's a mathematically guaranteed loss the more you play.

If you want to take a risk, invest in some stocks... Then again perhaps the sharks there make it a guaranteed loss too =P.

Quote: islandman4life

Why you trolling?

I'm not trolling. To accuse me of trolling is an insult which may be a suspendable offense.

I've offered many thorough responses to questions which did not deserve thorough answers. Others have also offered thorough answers. But all you seem to do is respond with another question. I nearly said another dumb question, because it grows increasingly clear that you are either not reading or are not absorbing those thorough answers. Romes wonders if you are serious. I doubt that you are serious. That inclines us to believe that you are 'yanking our chains'. My post is a comment on that observation.

Did you not even understand that?

BUT ... the corollary unfortunately is, when the master is too eager, he can mistake the dolt for the eager student. The latter reveals himself when his response to what should be his enlightenment is to demonstrate he prefers to wallow in his ignorance. This is very Kentry-ish.

Quote: islandman4life

I am interested in taking risks.

We noticed ;-)

Instead of $100 and I use $35 and martingale such as
$5
$5
$10
$15
Will my gain be better with $35?
I don't mind losing $35.

Quote: islandman4life

Instead of $100 and I use $35 and martingale such as
$5
$5
$10
$15
Will my gain be better with $35?
I don't mind losing $35.

Another losing system.

Quote: islandman4life

Instead of $100 and I use $35 and martingale such as
$5
$5
$10
$15
Will my gain be better with $35?
I don't mind losing $35.

Try 5, 5, 10, 100

Report back only if you win;-)

<edit> I meant report back like when you really win. You get up $500, let us know ;-)

Quote: islandman4life

Instead of $100 and I use $35 and martingale such as
$5
$5
$10
$15
Will my gain be better with $35?

What gain? There will likely be a number of losing sessions and a number of winning sessions.
WHATEVER YOU DO, you are likely to lose more money in TOTAL than you will win.

That said, if you take $1,000* or more to the casino each day, and play each day until you have $1010 or nothing in your pocket, then you will have far FAR more winning days than losing days.

With $1,000 and a target of $1010, you will have probability of winning about 98 days out of each 100 days.

Cool, eh?
98 winning days for every 100 days played.

Net profit after those 98 winning days will be 98 x 10 = $980 profit. SUPER COOL

Just remember that on the two days that you bust out, you will lose 2 x $1,000 = $2,000
Leaving you 100 days of fun and games which only cost you $2,000-$980=$1020 of entertainment expenses.

Of course, you might not have those 2 losing days. Wow. COOL!

Or you might have two losing days in your first week. Then you would just be $2,000 in debt and unable to look forward to winning, because you will be too broke to play.

And in all that, Whether you flat bet, Marty $2, Marty $5, Marty $10, Play Blackjack, Play Baccarat, Bet Banker, Bet Player, or mix it up any which way, All of that will make very VERY little difference.

Play for max fun. It's entertainment spending. You have no reason whatsoever to assume that you will end your gambling lifetime with a profit.

For an even better chance of having many MANY more winning sessions than losing sessions, sell or mortgage your home and take a bankroll of $100,000 to the casino each day and Marty until you have made $10 profit for that day. You don't need to take the $100,000 with you in cash. Just arrange an account or line of credit there.

What can possibly go wrong. Do it dude. 999 winning sessions for each losing session

Now....

Enough of the variations on your simple arithmetic questions. You like to take a risk. Go do it.

Spend your first day's profit on a calculator and your second day's profit on a book about simple statistics. With your third day's profit, treat youeself to a day off. Don't get greedy, and stay hydrated.

Quote: OnceDear

What gain? There will likely be a number of losing sessions and a number of winning sessions.
WHATEVER YOU DO, you are likely to lose more money in TOTAL than you will win.

That said, if you take $1,000* or more to the casino each day, and play each day until you have $1010 or nothing in your pocket, then you will have far FAR more winning days than losing days.

With $1,000 and a target of $1010, you will have probability of winning about 98 days out of each 100 days.

Cool, eh?
98 winning days for every 100 days played.

Net profit after those 98 winning days will be 98 x 10 = $980 profit. SUPER COOL

Just remember that on the two days that you bust out, you will lose 2 x $1,000 = $2,000
Leaving you 100 days of fun and games which only cost you $2,000-$980=$1020 of entertainment expenses.

Of course, you might not have those 2 losing days. Wow. COOL!

Or you might have two losing days in your first week. Then you would just be $2,000 in debt and unable to look forward to winning, because you will be too broke to play.

And in all that, Whether you flat bet, Marty $2, Marty $5, Marty $10, Play Blackjack, Play Baccarat, Bet Banker, Bet Player, or mix it up any which way, All of that will make very VERY little difference.

Play for max fun. It's entertainment spending. You have no reason whatsoever to assume that you will end your gambling lifetime with a profit.

For an even better chance of having many MANY more winning sessions than losing sessions, sell or mortgage your home and take a bankroll of $100,000 to the casino each day and Marty until you have made $10 profit for that day. You don't need to take the $100,000 with you in cash. Just arrange an account or line of credit there.

What can possibly go wrong. Do it dude. 999 winning sessions for each losing session

Now....

Enough of the variations on your simple arithmetic questions. You like to take a risk. Go do it.

Spend your first day's profit on a calculator and your second day's profit on a book about simple statistics. With your third day's profit, treat youeself to a day off. Don't get greedy, and stay hydrated.

Cool story, bro.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Try 5, 5, 10, 100

Report back only if you win;-)

<edit> I meant report back like when you really win. You get up $500, let us know ;-)

Yea bro! I will report back! I will go to 6 gambling houses and try that method I have $10,000 that I don't care about :)

Quote: islandman4life

Yea bro! I will report back! I will go to 6 gambling houses and try that method I have $10,000 that I don't care about :)

I prefer you not call me 'Bro'. Try 'Sis' or 'Grandpa', either will fit better in the 'flow' of this thread ;-!

And if you got 10K you don't care about, you should add a zero to each of the bets I advised above. I would appreciate my cut, just a small percentage, preferably in cash, unmarked smallish bills, monthly until the source dries up. When the source dries up, I'll give half of it back. You can trust me ;-)

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I prefer you not call me 'Bro'. Try 'Sis' or 'Grandpa', either will fit better in the 'flow' of this thread ;-!

And if you got 10K you don't care about, you should add a zero to each of the bets I advised above. I would appreciate my cut, just a small percentage, preferably in cash, unmarked smallish bills, monthly until the source dries up. When the source dries up, I'll give half of it back. You can trust me ;-)

Great, bro! Just send me your passport and all of your legal information and we can get started. :)

Quote: islandman4life

Great, bro! Just send me your passport and all of your legal information and we can get started. :)

Great Sis! Is there a particular country of origin, with the matching legal info, that you prefer?
You can't request all of them, you pick carefully now ;-)

I thought you were off to the casino with my foolproof system? Why you still here?

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Great Sis! Is there a particular country of origin, with the matching legal info, that you prefer?
You can't request all of them, you pick carefully now ;-)

I thought you were off to the casino with my foolproof system? Why you still here?

It's only next door to him remember. He's sure to get back soon.

Anyways...... It was me did all the legwork to refine his system to give him 999 winning sessions to each one that loses. How come you are muscling in on the action ?

$:o)

Quote: OnceDear

It's only next door to him remember. He's sure to get back soon.

Anyways...... It was me did all the legwork to refine his system to give him 999 winning sessions to each one that loses. How come you are muscling in on the action ?

$:o)

Based on the questions/posts from the OP?
'I thought I might get away with it', that is my first answer.
Running by legal counsel now, I may edit ;-)

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Based on the questions/posts from the OP?
'I thought I might get away with it', that is my first answer.
Running by legal counsel now, I may edit ;-)

Yea, Bro! Please send bank and credit card information as well. :D

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Based on the questions/posts from the OP?
'I thought I might get away with it', that is my first answer.
Running by legal counsel now, I may edit ;-)

Tell you what 2F, I despise paying legal fees. Do you share that disdain?
Can we agree a compromise proposal to put to the OP?

I'll continue to feed him the maths that will GUARANTEE him 999 percent probability of any one of his sessions being a winner in return for the first dollar of his daily profit. I'll also adjust the proposed strategy such that he makes that extra dollar every day. You can then negotiate with him for your part of the action for all the great advise which you offer.

I'll endorse and recommend your contribution to him.

That Casino won't know what hit it.

$:o)

Quote: OnceDear

Tell you what 2F, I despise paying legal fees. Do you share that disdain?
Can we agree a compromise proposal to put to the OP?

I'll continue to feed him the maths that will GUARANTEE him 999 percent probability of any one of his sessions being a winner in return for the first dollar of his daily profit. I'll also adjust the proposed strategy such that he makes that extra dollar every day. You can then negotiate with him for your part of the action for all the great advise which you offer.

I'll endorse and recommend your contribution to him.

That Casino won't know what hit it.

$:o)

Done deal ( without even reading the fine print ). I actually gave up on the OP awhile back, but I am impressed with your persistance.
Who is that masked man anyway ;-)

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Done deal ( without even reading the fine print ). I actually gave up on the OP awhile back, but I am impressed with your persistance.
Who is that masked man anyway ;-)

Masked man?

You mean $:o) ?
That's me when I had hair.
this is me when I couldn't afford a hair cut $o)
This is me now (;o)

Craps!
Not you, you old baldin' geezer ;-)
The OP. Who ( whom?) is having such fun jerking your chain?
Been fun to watch ;-)
Just 2F

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Craps!
Not you, you old baldin' geezer ;-)
The OP. Who ( whom?) is having such fun jerking your chain?
Been fun to watch ;-)
Just 2F

Fun to get my chain jerked. I know it's happening, but struggle to resist.

I'm irritated by the recent ( not allowed to say Trolls ) roguish posters, partly because they never lose or never learn. The constant stream of BS* is starting to grate. Replying courteously to the assorted ( not allowed to say Trolls ) is an exercise in self flagellation. I get to practice my customer service skills.

Still, while I'm wasting my time here, I'm not losing so much money.

*BS : I don't mean basic strategy.

Quote: OnceDear

Fun to get my chain jerked. I know it's happening, but struggle to resist.

I'm irritated by the recent ( not allowed to say Trolls ) roguish posters, partly because they never lose or never learn. The constant stream of BS* is starting to grate. Replying courteously to the assorted ( not allowed to say Trolls ) is an exercise in self flagellation. I get to practice my customer service skills.

Still, while I'm wasting my time here, I'm not losing so much money.

*BS : I don't mean basic strategy.

LOL! You guys like to waste time on the internet don't y'all have jobs?

Quote: islandman4life

LOL! You guys like to waste time on the internet don't y'all have jobs?

Who needs a job when you have the true Holy Grail?

Quote: islandman4life

Quote: OnceDear

Fun to get my chain jerked. I know it's happening, but struggle to resist.

I'm irritated by the recent ( not allowed to say Trolls ) roguish posters, partly because they never lose or never learn. The constant stream of BS* is starting to grate. Replying courteously to the assorted ( not allowed to say Trolls ) is an exercise in self flagellation. I get to practice my customer service skills.

Still, while I'm wasting my time here, I'm not losing so much money.

*BS : I don't mean basic strategy.

LOL! You guys like to waste time on the internet don't y'all have jobs?

And just exactly what were you doing if not wasting your time on the Internet? And ours I might add. You got a sports betting service for a fee thing you want to tell us about?

Wait a minute there IslandMan, weren't you supposed to be off testing your new BJ betting strategies? Doing that before you posted here again? I would not piss off/on OnceDear if I were you.
I've heard rumors...

Quote: OnceDear

Who needs a job when you have the true Holy Grail?

Nice one!!!

Virtually every day on some gambling forum somewhere someone will talk about making money with the martingale. It's really quite astonishing. I've given up trying to tell people that it's useless. You might as well try to tell an extraterrestrial that there's no intelligent life outside of earth. Or like trying to tell Bigfoot's mother that there is no Bigfoot.