Powerball at 400 Million
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62 members have voted
I'm speechless. A couple goes on the Today show with the ticket.. (I'm assuming its a real ticket).. .before they have cashed it... "on advice from their lawyer".
then the guy says later in the interview.. "I'm really nervous because everyone's going to know we won".... um... YOU'RE ON "THE TODAY SHOW", of course everyone is going to know!.
If any lawyer told me to visit the Today show... with the ticket ... before getting my check.. they'd be fired.
Interesting! Did the professor say whether it applies to nations or individuals? Or both?Quote: WizardI was taught in economics class, and believe, that happiness is a function of log(wealth).
Not necessarily happiness, but I might say that my stress/worry about finances would be inversely proportional to log(wealthJoeman).
+ 1.6 Billion/3Quote: rsactuaryhttp://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/tennessee-couple-claim-winning-ticket-for-us-powerball-jackpot-nbc/ar-BBoeCPz?li=BBnbfcL
I'm speechless. A couple goes on the Today show with the ticket.. (I'm assuming its a real ticket).. .before they have cashed it... "on advice from their lawyer".
then the guy says later in the interview.. "I'm really nervous because everyone's going to know we won".... um... YOU'RE ON "THE TODAY SHOW", of course everyone is going to know!.
If any lawyer told me to visit the Today show... with the ticket ... before getting my check.. they'd be fired.
If I had won, I would want to disappear from the public consciousness as soon as possible (or never appear there in the first place, if that's possible).
Daniel Tosh's stand up is actually fairly funny and one of his quotes I love to re-iterate in situations like this: "Money doesn't buy happiness? Money can buy a wave runner... Try frowning on a wave runner... (pantomime frowning on a wave runner)"Quote: WizardFor everybody saying money doesn't buy happiness, please send me as much as you don't need.
Quote: rsactuaryI'm speechless. A couple goes on the Today show with the ticket.. (I'm assuming its a real ticket).. .before they have cashed it... "on advice from their lawyer".
I assume he didn't trust the lottery agent to not switch his ticket with a losing one when he claimed it. However, you don't have to do the Today show to have witnesses that you hold the winning ticket.
Quote: JoemanInteresting! Did the professor say whether it applies to nations or individuals? Or both?
Just individuals.
Quote: WizardI assume he didn't trust the lottery agent to not switch his ticket with a losing one when I claimed it. However, you don't have to do the Today show to have witnesses that you hold the winning ticket.
You don't go to the lottery agent.. you go to HQ. And take a picture.
In a striking coincidence, this was published yesterday:Quote: WizardI was taught in economics class, and believe, that happiness is a function of log(wealth).
"Happiness is in your genes it seems, according to research that shows the more people in a country who have a particularly gene, the happier the nation will be. The DNA in question, the FAAH gene, makes a protein that affects feelings of pleasure and pain. People with a particular version of it tend to be cheerier souls.
However, wealth and health were found to have little effect on happiness. The more people in a country who have a variety of the FAAH gene, the happier that nation tends to be according to new research from Varna University. The findings may help to explain why some of the world's poorest nations still rank among the happiest. The more people in a country who have a variety of the FAAH gene, the happier that nation tends to be according to new research from Varna University. The findings may help to explain why some of the world's poorest nations still rank among the happiest. The researchers said the find could help explain why some of the world's poorest nations are also the happiest.
The team from Bulgaria and Hong Kong looked at whether there was a link between levels of the FAAH gene in a population and number of people who said they were 'very happy' in global study of life satisfaction. Sweden – one of the happiest countries in Europe and in the world – also had lots of happy DNA.
The happiness gene is even rarer in southern Europe, where it is found in 18 per cent of Greeks and just 12 per cent of Italians. Further afield, Ghana, Nigeria, Mexico and Columbia all came out near the top in the happiness league – and sported high rates of the gene. In contrast, the peoples of Iraq, Jordan, Hong Kong, China were among the least likely to rate themselves as 'very happy' and also had the lowest levels of the gene. But the gene and an optimistic outlook didn't always go hand in hand.
For instance, Russians and Estonians score very low on happiness, despite having the 'right' DNA, the Journal of Happiness Studies reports." daily mail
Quote: JoemanIf I had won, I would want to disappear from the public consciousness as soon as possible (or never appear there in the first place, if that's possible).
The best plan is win the 2nd highest jackpot. People probably will forget you sooner.
Quote: AxelWolfI believe there are studies showing people with money are generally happier. If someone has legitimate depression there's no amount of money that will help.
I was just being facetious with my comment. I personally believe that happiness stems from within, while external factors and circumstances do certainly have a degree of direct influence, it is the response and the subsequent result of how we choose to deal with such events that determine whether or not we glean any happiness from the situation.
That being said, the freedom to do what we want, when we want, appeals to me to a great degree (to whom wouldn't that be true, I wonder), and thus, monetary freedom to be less restricted with obligations, to a degree, provides some semblance of happiness to me.
Mike, have you posted the raw data somewhere, or can you point to a source?Quote: WizardIf jackpot<529, then 7.9043*exp(0.005554*jackpot), else 419.88*ln(jackpot)-2450.5)
Quote: teliotMike, have you posted the raw data somewhere, or can you point to a source?
http://lottoreport.com/powerballsales.htm
Thanks. I imported it all into Excel, 2012 to date (after the tickets went to $2).Quote: Wizard
I think the problem with curve fitting here is that there are only 2 data points above $600M. Two points determine a line. The question is one of correlation. If you are going to add points to get a more complicated curve, the question is which ones? Those two outliers really stand alone. Changing from exp to log seems very random.
As others have mentioned, the system can only handle so much volume, so the growth curve is necessarily flat for sufficiently large prizes. There is also the issue of correlation for the two largest prizes that doesn't exist for the lower data points.
I know you only went back to the change in odds, but even if you include the other data back to when the ticket price went to $2/ticket, it pretty much looks the same and you get a few more data points in the $500M range.
I guess what I am saying is that your exp curve works, but there is not enough data to know what to do above the $600M point.
http://standardbredcanada.ca/news/1-15-16/horseman-wins-1m-powerball-draw.html
Quote: Wizard
As I've said in other posts, this relationship has its limits. Here is my new formula for jackpot sales (in millions) by jackpot size (in millions):
If jackpot<529, then 7.9043*exp(0.005554*jackpot), else 419.88*ln(jackpot)-2450.5)
I'm not crazy about the "if" statement but am open to other specific ideas.
Given my new formula, I show no relative maximum. The value just keeps going up with jackpot size. At 5.85 billion, it actually turns positive after considering taxes. However, I have a feeling a may have to make adjustments to my curve if it ever gets close to that amount.
I SMELL A MATH CHALLENGE. JUICES ARE FLOWING...more to follow.
Quote: WizardLow numbers. Glad I didn't buy tickets with my strategy of picking all numbers greater than 31.
Tonight would've been a better night for high numbers. 3, 51, 52, 61, 64, PB 6
Quote: rxwineBased on some of the lottery winner stories where the winners were swindled, kidnapped, killed or died mysteriously, I think if I won such a great amount I would do my best to keep it under wraps and stipulate that if I die no one inherits anything for 10 years after my death and only after they pass two separate lie detector tests on their innocence, on having no assistance or planning on my demise.
Lottery winners risk death and danger after going public
Exerpt:
Jackpot winners "get a big old target painted on their backs," said Andrew Stoltmann, an Illinois attorney who has represented winners. When their names are released "they get harassed and harangued into some horrifically bad investments."
Forcing people to reveal their names, he added, is like "throwing meat into a shark-infested ocean."
Delaware, Kansas, Maryland, North Dakota, Ohio and South Carolina allow winners to remain anonymous. A growing number of other states, including Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont, will award prizes to a trust and allow a trustee — usually an attorney — to collect without disclosing the name of the ticket holder.
Quote: JohnnyQLottery winners risk death and danger after going public
Exerpt:
Jackpot winners "get a big old target painted on their backs," said Andrew Stoltmann, an Illinois attorney who has represented winners. When their names are released "they get harassed and harangued into some horrifically bad investments."
Forcing people to reveal their names, he added, is like "throwing meat into a shark-infested ocean."
Delaware, Kansas, Maryland, North Dakota, Ohio and South Carolina allow winners to remain anonymous. A growing number of other states, including Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont, will award prizes to a trust and allow a trustee — usually an attorney — to collect without disclosing the name of the ticket holder.
Unfortunately the lotteries in states where you can't remain anonymous feel that using you for advertising is more important than your safety.
Quote: Ibeatyouraces
Unfortunately the lotteries in states where you can't remain anonymous feel that using you for advertising is more important than your safety.
Ya its great double dipping publicity for the lottery, when they hand the check to the winner, when the lottery winner starts buying stupid crap, and when the lottery winner goes busto or ends up murdered by some crazy person.
Do they reserve the right to use your face?Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: JohnnyQLottery winners risk death and danger after going public
Exerpt:
Jackpot winners "get a big old target painted on their backs," said Andrew Stoltmann, an Illinois attorney who has represented winners. When their names are released "they get harassed and harangued into some horrifically bad investments."
Forcing people to reveal their names, he added, is like "throwing meat into a shark-infested ocean."
Delaware, Kansas, Maryland, North Dakota, Ohio and South Carolina allow winners to remain anonymous. A growing number of other states, including Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont, will award prizes to a trust and allow a trustee — usually an attorney — to collect without disclosing the name of the ticket holder.
Unfortunately the lotteries in states where you can't remain anonymous feel that using you for advertising is more important than your safety.
Quote: AxelWolfDo they reserve the right to use your face?Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: JohnnyQLottery winners risk death and danger after going public
Exerpt:
Jackpot winners "get a big old target painted on their backs," said Andrew Stoltmann, an Illinois attorney who has represented winners. When their names are released "they get harassed and harangued into some horrifically bad investments."
Forcing people to reveal their names, he added, is like "throwing meat into a shark-infested ocean."
Delaware, Kansas, Maryland, North Dakota, Ohio and South Carolina allow winners to remain anonymous. A growing number of other states, including Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont, will award prizes to a trust and allow a trustee — usually an attorney — to collect without disclosing the name of the ticket holder.
Unfortunately the lotteries in states where you can't remain anonymous feel that using you for advertising is more important than your safety.
Yeah, last I saw in Florida anyway, you must allow the lottery to use your image and name for publicity to claim the prize. That could easily have changed.
Quote: Mission146I'd look completely different by that time the following week.
Quote: Mission146I'd look completely different by that time the following week.
I would consider changing my name before I collected, then changing it back.
That might be a quantum leap in wise thinking on this subject. I may go back and read everything you've ever written 'cause wisdom is always in short supply. That is a compliment, no sarcasm intended.Quote: DRichI would consider changing my name before I collected, then changing it back.
I just finished reading the discussions about the suspension list thread ( the whole damn thing and linked to the threads involved ), took several weeks over the holidays. Was a hoot. Learned a lot about a lot of things including insight into many of the current and ex posters here. I am such a small grain of sand on such a large beach. I may start again by reading the posts of DRich. I could do much worse.
Cheers - 2F
Quote: TwoFeathersATLThat might be a quantum leap in wise thinking on this subject. I may go back and read everything you've ever written 'cause wisdom is always in short supply. That is a compliment, no sarcasm intended.
Cheers - 2F
I appreciate the compliment but am afraid you may be disappointed if your read all my posts. I have never been accused of being overly wise.
Quote: DRichI appreciate the compliment but am afraid you may be disappointed if your read all my posts. I have never been accused of being overly wise.
You underrate your value to the forum. :)
The "overly wise" often stand in the rain. The underly wise, well forget them. I'm always searching for a happy 'median'...;-) I would strongly suggest you not go back and read my post history, or you'll just block me going forward;-) And that would hurt my delicate feelings. I'm still reeling out of control over the fact that EB has me blocked, again ;-)Quote: DRichI appreciate the compliment but am afraid you may be disappointed if your read all my posts. I have never been accused of being overly wise.
If I won, it would be turned in somewhere closer to the 180 days, than to the day I won - hopefully, 5 months later people would be thinking about something else.
In the meantime, I would hire a financial advisor, and a bunch of lawyers.
One thing I would want to do - is get a team of lawyers that would help me remain anonymous - since in most states - reporting is a requirement. I bet you could somehow create a company that owned the ticket - than get the lawyers to figure out a way to layer the company and somehow hide your identity.
Quote: DRichI would consider changing my name before I collected, then changing it back.
In between, you could sign up for all new player cards and various promotions.
: )
You see, I never see all the angles. If you win the big powerball or whatever lottery, first you change your name ( get legal help but doesn't take long ) then you go get new players cards in that new name, milk any promotional goodies, then go claim your 100, 500, 1000, million bucks. Why am I yawning at my own post? Get big money and run, never look back, go....Quote: rxwineIn between, you could sign up for all new player cards and various promotions.
: )
Quote: DRichI have never been accused of being overly wise.
I'll accuse you of that.
Quote: slackyhackyYou have 180 days to turn in the ticket.
If I won, it would be turned in somewhere closer to the 180 days, than to the day I won - hopefully, 5 months later people would be thinking about something else.
In the meantime, I would hire a financial advisor, and a bunch of lawyers.
One thing I would want to do - is get a team of lawyers that would help me remain anonymous - since in most states - reporting is a requirement. I bet you could somehow create a company that owned the ticket - than get the lawyers to figure out a way to layer the company and somehow hide your identity.
But, if your dog eats your ticket................................
I suppose I would have a sick feeling if I always played the same numbers, and had them come up on one of the weeks I didn't play.
Quote:Smith said that she picked the winning numbers and they were the same set of numbers she has been playing "for years," though she doesn't play regularly. The ticket was purchased at a Publix in Melbourne
http://abcnews.go.com/US/historic-powerball-jackpot-winners-forward-today/story?id=37002088
Quote: GWAEPowerball back up near 400, doesn't seem like a big deal like it was back here.
Is that all? Wake me when it gets to two billion.
Any idea what the odds are of it hitting 2bil or 5bil?
Quote: Wizard...Wake me when it gets to two billion.
Not me. I'll kick the person and go back to sleep. :-)
Quote: WizardSo am I. With this new rule change that is much more likely to happen. If we can go four or five drawings without anybody hitting it (a big "if"), then we should get there.
My guess would be that once we've seen several of these $500 million-plus jackpots, they'll start getting less attention and the big rush for tickets won't happen until the jackpot gets higher. People will get less excited about jackpot levels they've seen recently. I think a $1 billion jackpot is pretty much inevitable.
Quote: WizardIs that all? Wake me when it gets to two billion.
That's my point. I think jackpot fatigue was mentioned in this thread. When it hit 400 last time it was all over the news. It has not been mentioned once this time. Is 750 the new 400?
Quote: GWAEThat's my point. I think jackpot fatigue was mentioned in this thread. When it hit 400 last time it was all over the news. It has not been mentioned once this time. Is 750 the new 400?
They mentioned it briefly on the Today Show, but nowhere near the hype they gave it the previous time it got that high.
Prediction time: PowerBall will change the rules again, to make it even harder to win.
So now the previous guy has tickets for next week's draw and probably has no clue. I rwally hope thr ticket he has doesn't match tonight's draw.
Quote: GWAEI stopped at gas station at 1005. Powerball sales end at 10pm. A guy 2 people ahead of me bought $40 in powerball. The next lady asked if she could buy powerball and the cashier said sure. The manager overheard and came over to say tonight's sales are done. If you buy tickets it will be for next week's drawing.
So now the previous guy has tickets for next week's draw and probably has no clue. I rwally hope thr ticket he has doesn't match tonight's draw.
They'll be disappointed. At least one winner tonight.
The worst case for him would be to think he lost that draw, causing him to throw the winning ticket away for next week's....Quote: GWAEI stopped at gas station at 1005. Powerball sales end at 10pm. A guy 2 people ahead of me bought $40 in powerball. The next lady asked if she could buy powerball and the cashier said sure. The manager overheard and came over to say tonight's sales are done. If you buy tickets it will be for next week's drawing.
So now the previous guy has tickets for next week's draw and probably has no clue. I rwally hope thr ticket he has doesn't match tonight's draw.
There was a $63 million dollar unclaimed lottery ticket from California that became worthless in February. Ouch.
Quote: AyecarumbaThe worst case for him would be to think he lost that draw, causing him to throw the winning ticket away for next week's....
There was a $63 million dollar unclaimed lottery ticket from California that became worthless in February. Ouch.
I hope the person doesn't know they the it away. It would be horrible to know you had the winner and couldn't find your ticket.
Quote: IbeatyouracesThey'll be disappointed. At least one winner tonight.
That was a little surprising. Based on the number of total winners, the odds of it hitting were only about 22.6%
