Powerball at 400 Million
Poll
 | 30 votes (48.38%) | ||
| | 7 votes (11.29%) | ||
| | 15 votes (24.19%) | ||
| | 4 votes (6.45%) | ||
| | 6 votes (9.67%) |
62 members have voted
Quote: aceofspades...Also, as an aside, what would be the probability that the 3 numbers chosen in a Pick 3 would correspond with the date of the drawing?
Depends on what the date is. Some dates it's 1 in 1000. Others dates, it's impossible.
Quote: IbeatyouracesDepends on what the date is. Some dates it's 1 in 1000. Others dates, it's impossible.
Yes, excluding:
10/10 through 10/31;
11/10 through 11/30; and
12/10 through 12/31
Quote: aceofspadesYes, excluding:
10/10 through 10/31;
11/10 through 11/30; and
12/10 through 12/31
Yep. Gonna have to rely on that 1 in 10,000 four digit on those days :-)
Quote: aceofspadesBut, one physical ticket can have multiple plays on it - so, is it per ticket or per play?
Also, as an aside, what would be the probability that the 3 numbers chosen in a Pick 3 would correspond with the date of the drawing?
2 bucks per play or number
can have up to 10 plays or numbers on one ticket for 20 bucks
http://news.yahoo.com/did-math-450-million-powerball-214235140.html?nf=1
Quote: rudeboyoiI wonder if 7 is the most frequently picked number. It's considered a lucky number (except to craps players lol). Falls in between 1-31 and 1-12.
I am in the "most people who pick their own numbers play birthdays and ages" camp (i.e. a couple with a child play their ages and the days of the month of their birthdays), so I wouldn't expect 7 to be much more popular than the rest of the smaller numbers.
I wouldn't be surprised if the most played combination is 1-2-3-4-5/6, using the reasoning, "It's too obvious for anybody else to be using it; I'll win the entire jackpot!" Then again, if you want to increase the chance of winning the whole thing, here's a suggestion: make the Powerball/Mega Number the same as one of the other five, as most people tend to choose six different numbers.
Don't you all love your job enough that you would all stay even if you got rich? :)Quote: GWAEGot in a poll at work today. We only have 12 people in the company so no way in hell am I going to be left working with 11 people quitting. Although boss would probably just close anyways so I would be out of a job.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyBreak down of EV just got published. Wiz not sure if you beat them to it or vice versa. Either way, let that jackpot rise!!! Unless I win it first ;-) No seriously, waiting a little longer.
http://news.yahoo.com/did-math-450-million-powerball-214235140.html?nf=1
I did beat them to it. Here is my full analysis.
Yahoo's treatment was better than most, but still ignored jackpot sharing, which is a major consideration when the jackpot gets big.
Quote: WizardThe punishment for buying Powerball tickets for all forum members per ticket shall be either:
A) Five push-ups payable immediately.
B) One push-up per year for each of the next 30 years.
You may pay other forum members to serve them. I think Miplet works pretty cheap.
:+) 5 cents each push-up. Bulk plans avalible.
I need to go buy another ticket now, that will double my chances right? ;-)Quote: IbeatyouracesUp to $500 million now.
Quote: TwoFeathersATLI need to go buy another ticket now, that will double my chances right? ;-)
Just get every possible combination!!
Quote: IbeatyouracesJust get every possible combination!!
The time it would take to print every combination would be near impossible.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyThe time it would take to print every combination would be near impossible.
I think I read somewhere a few years ago that it would take one lottery terminal over a week to print them all off. I could be mistaken too.
But before I do that, I think hosting an event in Las Vegas for the established WOV members will be in order, blow and hookers on me!
I think you've got it locked. Why not just start the party now? I used to know how to do blow and hookers. It's like riding a bicycle right? Once you got it, you always got it....Quote: MidwestAPIf the Powerball tonight comes up 2, 21, or 26 and you don't hear from me again, start by looking in the Caribbean. I'll be the one with a posse of nubile women sailing from island to island on my mega yacht.
But before I do that, I think hosting an event in Las Vegas for the established WOV members will be in order, blow and hookers on me!
<edit> What? You weren't going to invite me? That's cold. That's very cold.
Hahahahahaha, hookers and blow for all... That's how you celebrate, anything =P.Quote: MidwestAPIf the Powerball tonight comes up 2, 21, or 26 and you don't hear from me again, start by looking in the Caribbean. I'll be the one with a posse of nubile women sailing from island to island on my mega yacht.
But before I do that, I think hosting an event in Las Vegas for the established WOV members will be in order, blow and hookers on me!
Since it's over 500,000,000... I'll get my 1 ticket. I rarely get a lottery ticket, but when I do I certainly get my $2 worth of value dreaming about what it would be like to get that lucky. Start daydreaming now.
Don't believe everything you read on the Internet......
I think you need to reread that article about lottery millionaires that burn thru the money on stupid stuff and end up broke...Quote: MidwestAPIf the Powerball tonight comes up 2, 21, or 26 and you don't hear from me again, start by looking in the Caribbean. I'll be the one with a posse of nubile women sailing from island to island on my mega yacht.
But before I do that, I think hosting an event in Las Vegas for the established WOV members will be in order, blow and hookers on me!
http://www.businessinsider.com/17-lottery-winners-who-blew-it-all-2013-5
Ignore that Midwest... Hookers, blow, and the rest will figure itself out! lolQuote: DJTeddyBearI think you need to reread that article about lottery millionaires that burn thru the money on stupid stuff and end up broke...
http://www.businessinsider.com/17-lottery-winners-who-blew-it-all-2013-5
Quote: teddysDon't you all love your job enough that you would all stay even if you got rich? :)
Honestly I would actually keep working. I think.
Quote: WizardI did beat them to it. Here is my full analysis.
Assuming that 32 cents of each $2 ticket goes into the jackpot, a $500 million jackpot would mean 450 million tickets would be sold.
I work out the "jackpot EV" of a $2 ticket to be 88.5038 cents in this case. There would be about a 1/5 chance of no winners, 1/3 of one, 1/4 of two, 1/8 of three, 1/20 of four, and 1/50 of five or more.
Added to the 13.8032 cents for the "non-jackpot EV" (outside of California) that the Wizard calculates, this makes each $2 ticket's EV $1.02307...and that's before taking the deduction for the lump sum or any Federal taxes into account. (Do any states tax lottery winnings? I am pretty sure California does not.)
Quote: IbeatyouracesI think I read somewhere a few years ago that it would take one lottery terminal over a week to print them all off. I could be mistaken too.
Having never purchased any, I don't know how fast the terminals are, but let's say it can do five cards per second. That would mean it would take 1.85 years to print them all out.
Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyI was bad today. I did 20 push ups as penance. So stressed caring for elderly and work that I needed to reward myself with a 2 tickets.
If you bought only two, then you only owe 10 push-ups. Your penance has been more than paid.
Quote: WizardHaving never purchased any, I don't know how fast the terminals are, but let's say it can do five cards per second. That would mean it would take 1.85 years to print them all out.
I "knew" it was over a week :-D
They're definitely slower than 5 per second. I think a full ticket takes at least two seconds. Not sure if five or ten lines are on a ticket though. I think five.
Quote: ThatDonGuyAssuming that 32 cents of each $2 ticket goes into the jackpot, a $500 million jackpot would mean 450 million tickets would be sold.
I work out the "jackpot EV" of a $2 ticket to be 88.5038 cents in this case. There would be about a 1/5 chance of no winners, 1/3 of one, 1/4 of two, 1/8 of three, 1/20 of four, and 1/50 of five or more.
Where do you get the 32-cents figure? Also, are you looking at the whole 500 million or just the increase since the previous jackpot of 334 million.
My own rough predictions is 106 million tickets sold. That will equate to a probability of at least one winner of 30.5%.
What if we broke up in to teams and purchased chunks of numbers so that we could get them all??? We should be able to do it in a weeks time then... We just need someone to front the what, like $300,000,000 to buy all the tickets? ...Mike? =pQuote: WizardIf you bought only two, then you only owe 10 push-ups. Your penance has been more than paid.
I can stand there all day buying tickets, actually got two places side by side where I'm friends, I can just saunter back and forth between them with a big jhit eatin grin on my face making sure their printers are still aprinting. Who's money are we using again? ;-)Quote: RomesWhat if we broke up in to teams and purchased chunks of numbers so that we could get them all??? We should be able to do it in a weeks time then... We just need someone to front the what, like $300,000,000 to buy all the tickets? ...Mike? =p
And who is going to fill out all those cards and make sure there are no duplicates?Quote: TwoFeathersATLWho's money are we using again? ;-)
That one's simple. I believe in Wizards........and sorceress es.Quote: JoemanAnd who is going to fill out all those cards and make sure there are no duplicates?
The EV still sucks, moreover, I'd be just as likely to play at forty million as 500 million. Assuming I'd take the lump sum, and I probably would, I really can't think of anything I'd do with one amount that I couldn't do with the lower amount.
Besides, the birthdays of myself, my son, my daughter and my girlfriend only result in four numbers with only one number even being unique to anyone. Surprisingly, the unique number is a month, not a day. There are three unique days, but two of those share a number with some other person's month while two people share a day that could not match a month.
What would my other two numbers be? I don't know. Maybe 41 and 36?
If 41 and 36 represent two of the month digits added to the only day that doesn't match a month, can anyone identify all possible birthdays for the four people?
Quote: RomesWhat if we broke up in to teams and purchased chunks of numbers so that we could get them all??? We should be able to do it in a weeks time then... We just need someone to front the what, like $300,000,000 to buy all the tickets? ...Mike? =p
How bout this... according to this site, there are 6680 active WoV members. That's only 43,743 tickets per member. Figure 10 seconds per 5 line ticket, that's 24.3 hours. That's only roughly 8 hours a day for the 3 days between drawings. Done & done!
And don't forget, it's not just the $500 mil we will be splitting, just by buying the 292.2 mil tickets, we are adding another $292.2 mil to the prize pool (between the jackpot and the lesser prizes)!
Now, whoever is fronting the $584.4 mil for this project, please PM me with my list of numbers to get, and so I can give you my bank account number where you may deposit my, I mean our $87.5k! ;)
I'll start doing my push-ups right now!
Quote: BozBigger question, if no one hits tonight, does the next drawing hit a billion? I think it would take one more rollover, but that's it.
No. If it doesn't hit, I think the next jackpot will close about 64M above this one. Hard to say because the contribution rate seems to vary, based on data from LottoReport.com. I think we'll need four or five more drawings, counting today, with no winner.
Quote: MidwestAPIf the Powerball tonight comes up 2, 21, or 26 and you don't hear from me again, start by looking in the Caribbean. I'll be the one with a posse of nubile women sailing from island to island on my mega yacht.
But before I do that, I think hosting an event in Las Vegas for the established WOV members will be in order, blow and hookers on me!
Since you are not a member of DT and have missed my exploits, I will advise that I am familiar with Caribbean and have piloted large vessels around there a few times. I'm neat, clean, not scared of work, and quiet as a church mouse. I also know a bunch of hotspots, whether you're looking for diving, fishing, parties, R&R, scenic views, or contraband. If you need a captain, I'm the cheapest you'll ever find. I even defend from pirates! ;)
Quote: WizardNo. If it doesn't hit, I think the next jackpot will close about 64M above this one. Hard to say because the contribution rate seems to vary, based on data from LottoReport.com. I think we'll need four or five more drawings, counting today, with no winner.
This one started at 400M and is now announced at 500K, so it seems sales are beating expectations. But they also could be at close to maximum participation. Time will tell.
Quote: WizardWhere do you get the 32-cents figure? Also, are you looking at the whole 500 million or just the increase since the previous jackpot of 334 million.
My own rough predictions is 106 million tickets sold. That will equate to a probability of at least one winner of 30.5%.
I get 32 cents from, er, forgetting that it's $2 per ticket when calculating it (and also forgetting that it's 56 cents a ticket when the jackpot is at least $250 million).
This changes the number of tickets to (500,000,000 - 356,000,000) / 0.56 = about 257 million. (The $356 million figure for the previous jackpot comes from LotteryUSA.) The probability of no winners is (1 - 1/292,201,338)257,000,000 = 41.5%, which means there is a 58.5% chance of there being at least one winner.
With the new numbers, I get 41.5% chance of no winners, 36.5% chance of one, 16.1% chance of two, 4.7% chance of three, 1% chance of four, and about 1/470 of five or more.
The "jackpot EV" of a ticket is about $1.3238, so the total EV is about $1.4618.
If you use 334 million as the previous jackpot value and 106 million tickets in this draw, then an increase of 166 million over 106 million tickets means that each ticket adds $1.56 to the jackpot, which I don't see happening as, even if you make it "jackpot or nothing," that leaves only 44 cents per ticket for whatever the states do with the money. I am reasonably certain that California requires that at least 1/3 of all lottery ticket revenues go to the state's schools.
plus fill up the trucks 35 gallon tank
Quote: ThatDonGuyWith the new numbers, I get 41.5% chance of no winners,
I'll bet you a beer there is no winner in today's drawing.
Quote: ThatDonGuy...I am reasonably certain that California requires that at least 1/3 of all lottery ticket revenues go to the state's schools.
While it is true that the proceeds of the lottery are earmarked for public education, it is actually part of a shell game, as the legislature almost immediately after the lottery was approved, passed legislation allowing a matching portion of the general fund budget that had previously gone toward public education, to be spent elsewhere. Voters were duped into thinking that that lottery monies would supplement the current level of spending; instead, the amount spent on schools remained the same while the freed up cash went to other priorities. It is what it is, a passive tax (and a push-up generator).
Damn! Does that Don guy ever get a headache? ;-)Quote: ThatDonGuyI get 32 cents from, er, forgetting that it's $2 per ticket when calculating it (and also forgetting that it's 56 cents a ticket when the jackpot is at least $250 million).
This changes the number of tickets to (500,000,000 - 356,000,000) / 0.56 = about 257 million. (The $356 million figure for the previous jackpot comes from LotteryUSA.) The probability of no winners is (1 - 1/292,201,338)257,000,000 = 41.5%, which means there is a 58.5% chance of there being at least one winner.
With the new numbers, I get 41.5% chance of no winners, 36.5% chance of one, 16.1% chance of two, 4.7% chance of three, 1% chance of four, and about 1/470 of five or more.
The "jackpot EV" of a ticket is about $1.3238, so the total EV is about $1.4618.
If you use 334 million as the previous jackpot value and 106 million tickets in this draw, then an increase of 166 million over 106 million tickets means that each ticket adds $1.56 to the jackpot, which I don't see happening as, even if you make it "jackpot or nothing," that leaves only 44 cents per ticket for whatever the states do with the money. I am reasonably certain that California requires that at least 1/3 of all lottery ticket revenues go to the state's schools.
Quote: AyecarumbaIt is what it is, a passive tax (and a push-up generator).
Whether it works as intended, I'm not sure people realize the genius of coming up with a tax that people willingly go pay like it's a game. It's something that never happens normally with taxes. It even gets a whole bunch of people who don't pay taxes because of income levels.
I wonder if tax compliance would increase if they offered prizes after April 15th to a certain number of filers.
Unofficial of course, I take no responsibility for errors.
Quote: rsactuary2, 11, 47, 62, 63 PB:17.
Four primes -- I like that.
I meant to buy a second ticket today, was at the store, just forgot.
If nobody wins, I'm gonna get me two of them tickets for the next one!
