November 12th sessions again Wizard of Odds Baccarat Simulator
Quote: Minty
Earlier, I've already responded to someone else that made points similar to yours. I'll be back in a few months with hard evidence. Cool if I send a PM to let you know when that topic opened?
It'll take a few months because I doubt a few live sessions with real money would convince anyone at all. And, if I can prove my point via post-game data instead of revealing personal info during a live session, I would rather do that to protect my identity.
Quote: chancekamariEarlier, I've already responded to someone else that made points similar to yours. I'll be back in a few months with hard evidence. Cool if I send a PM to let you know when that topic opened?
It'll take a few months because I doubt a few live sessions with real money would convince anyone at all. And, if I can prove my point via post-game data instead of revealing personal info during a live session, I would rather do that to protect my identity.
I absolutely understand your desire to protect your identity. It's not so important that we see your data; many here would suspect that it would be falsified to support your interests. It's more important that you see it so that you may get a more accurate sense of how events are actually working out. You can definitely PM me though. I should mention a few months of data doesn't hold a lot of weight unless you can get some substantial time in. It would be great if you had a few thousand rounds of play. I'm not real experienced with playing baccarat, so I don't know how long that would take.
Quote: WizardofnothingUnderstood, but regardless could you maybe explain what makes you think you can predict a totally non predictable game, can you pick red or black I know roulette on a non biased wheel?
I don't try to predict. For majority of hands, I try to follow whatever trend or streak is developing. If I catch it on time, I'll make some money. If I don't catch it on time, I'll lose and live with it. Don't mistake what I'm saying with predicting patterns. That's not it. The easiest way to explain it is for example, if a table shows mostly Player wins, I will bet Player or not bet at all. The same is true if it's mostly Banker wins.
Other examples are harder to spot, it comes with experience. Yes, I do realize how ridiculous that sounds, but what you think happens on paper is typically not congruent with the real experience.
I'm in the dark just like other players at the table. When, why, and how much I bet is based on where my bankroll is at, whether I'm losing or winning, what I think the table is showing me, etc.
Quote: MintyI absolutely understand your desire to protect your identity. It's not so important that we see your data; many here would suspect that it would be falsified to support your interests. It's more important that you see it so that you may get a more accurate sense of how events are actually working out. You can definitely PM me though. I should mention a few months of data doesn't hold a lot of weight unless you can get some substantial time in. It would be great if you had a few thousand rounds of play. I'm not real experienced with playing baccarat, so I don't know how long that would take.
I'm going to post raw data recorded by the online casino I play at. I think what I'll do is take a screenshot of the data at an angle using a phone or camera so you know it's not photoshop and give you guys the desktop screenshots at the same time to easily analyze the numbers. As long as I show consistent cash outs with no reloads or new deposits, I think that should be sufficient. You'll be able to track when I play and how much I win minute by minute.
Even then there will be naysayers, but it will at least serve as proof of concept.
For instance there may be a pattern of dealer 20s in blackjack it the count is + 61
But there has to be something that would cause the pattern it's not just atmospheric pressure
Quote: WizardofnothingMy point being - what do you think causes a pattern.
For instance there may be a pattern of dealer 20s in blackjack it the count is + 61
But there has to be something that would cause the pattern it's not just atmospheric pressure
Beats me. I don't know. If it was easily explainable, some math genius would've factored it into the Bac equation already.
I don't worry about patterns and what cause them. At the very basic level, I worry more about which side is gaining strength. If in the last 20 hands, Player won 15 times, it's not smart to bet Banker like everyone says you should.
What I do know for sure is the Bac equation is NOT complete yet. The mental aspect of gambling plays a bigger role in Bac than it does in Blackjack and Poker because the chance for things to go wrong is higher in Bac.
What do you do when you suddenly lose 30 in a row?Quote: chancekamari.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat do you do when you suddenly lose 30 in a row?
Double or nothing 31st hand and yell monkey
Quote: AxelWolfWhat do you do when you suddenly lose 30 in a row?
I don't lose 30 in a row. My bankroll is typically divided into 30 bets. If I lose 10 to 15 bets, I'm ready to leave as that's 33% to 50% of my bankroll already. You can always try again 2morrow. Gambling is life long.
That's exactly what I thought you would say.Quote: chancekamariI don't lose 30 in a row. My bankroll is typically divided into 30 bets. If I lose 10 to 15 bets, I'm ready to leave as that's 33% to 50% of my bankroll already. You can always try again 2morrow. Gambling is life long.
Now explain why you think everything resets the next day, when exactly is the next day, 12:01am? What if you stopped at 11:58, could you just leave the casino and come back at 12:01 am and start your next day? Or do you have to sleep first? Hoe many hours must you sleep?
Do you see how ridiculous that sounds?
That's one problem with your thinking. There is no limit to how many hands you can lose in a row. You can play 5 hands a day and lose 6 days in a row, or lose 2 hands 15 days in a row.
10,000 hands is 10,000 hands no matter how you break it up.
You think you can trick the odds by stopping and coming back the next day, You think you can predict patterns and streaks unfortunately that's absolutely absurd.
Your "system" is nothing more than guessing meanwhile trying to avoiding big losses in a single session while trying to lock up small profits. you're just extending the number of days by trying to preserve your bankroll per session.
Imagine every possible scenario that could happen then minus the house edge.
Quote: AxelWolfYour "system" is nothing more than guessing meanwhile trying to avoiding big losses in a single session while trying to lock up small profits. you're just extending the number of days by trying to preserve your bankroll per session.
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Very entertaining thread. Axel wins.
Quote: chancekamariI don't try to predict. For majority of hands, I try to follow whatever trend or streak is developing.
Again, distill that statement down into something that doesn't seem to contradict itself.
Quote: chancekamariI'm going to post raw data recorded by the online casino I play at.
I'm all for it and promise to cut out all sarcasm if you will do it.
Quote: AxelWolfThat's exactly what I thought you would say.
Now explain why you think everything resets the next day, when exactly is the next day, 12:01am? What if you stopped at 11:58, could you just leave the casino and come back at 12:01 am and start your next day? Or do you have to sleep first? Hoe many hours must you sleep?
Do you see how ridiculous that sounds?
That's one problem with your thinking. There is no limit to how many hands you can lose in a row. You can play 5 hands a day and lose 6 days in a row, or lose 2 hands 15 days in a row.
10,000 hands is 10,000 hands no matter how you break it up.
You think you can trick the odds by stopping and coming back the next day, You think you can predict patterns and streaks unfortunately that's absolutely absurd.
Your "system" is nothing more than guessing meanwhile trying to avoiding big losses in a single session while trying to lock up small profits. you're just extending the number of days by trying to preserve your bankroll per session.
Imagine every possible scenario that could happen then minus the house edge.
I addressed this in a previous reply here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/24157-november-12th-sessions-again-wizard-of-odds-baccarat-simulator/4/#post496182
The last paragraph is especially relevant.
Quote: AxelWolf10,000 hands is 10,000 hands no matter how you break it up.
That sounds correct at first, but the real gambling experience isn't always congruent with what you think should happen on paper. Let's pause on Bac for a bit and use Poker -- so more people can relate -- as an example to answer your question.
Any poker player losing 30 hands in a row would more than likely go on tilt because he's exposed to way too much emotional stress. On the flip side, the total loss value of losing a few hands per day might not equal that of losing 30 hands in a day because you lose a lot more money when you go on tilt.
If you break up the 10,000 hands based on short term wins and losses, it can be the difference between losing $1 or $10,000. But losing isn't all there is to gambling, winning can happen. That's why we play and that's why I break up my sessions.
Quote: AxelWolfYou think you can predict patterns and streaks unfortunately that's absolutely absurd.
You haven't been paying attention to the live stream / video and what I've been posting on this forum. I don't predict and I don't focus on patterns.
Quote: AxelWolfYour "system" is nothing more than guessing meanwhile trying to avoiding big losses in a single session while trying to lock up small profits
That's your assumption. Capping losses at 33% to 50% and consistently winning at 40% to 80% makes a huge difference. It's not small time profits. This claim is hearsay unless I come back with hard evidence like I said I would. Will do sir.
Quote: AxelWolfHoe many hours must you sleep?
I know this was meant to poke fun at me, but here's where it gets interesting. I'm extremely interested in the mental side of gambling. Ample rest time between sessions, emotional state, declining will power throughout the day, when I play at my best (typically 10am to 1pm), overconfidence, fear, etc. all plays a part in winning / losing.
To everyone else, please read my previous replies before posting your own. I had to repeat what I posted on 3 separate occasions now. I've put in a lot of personal time to answers your questions. The least you can do is NOT reply with knee-jerk reactions. If this continues, I'll just wait until I can come back with screenshots of my online gambling data in a few months. I don't want to waste time on repeating myself. Thx!
Quote: odiousgambitAgain, distill that statement down into something that doesn't seem to contradict itself.
Easy, a pattern player typically bet with every opportunity he gets in attempting to maximize his wins. I don't. I might see the same patterns he does, but I don't bet for that reason.
Let's use a basic example: 2 Player wins, 1 Banker, 2 Player wins again, 1 Banker win again
That seems like a pattern developing. Even when I see that, I wouldn't bet on Banker after every 2 Player wins because I'm not so sure the next instance of consecutive Player wins is going to stop at 2 in a row like the pattern implies it would. What that basic example tells me is Player is trending. Typically when that happens, I would wait until I feel it's the right time to bet on Player then I bet.
So a pattern might develop and we might be playing the same thing, but a pattern player would for sure bet more often than I do for different reasons.
Quote: odiousgambitI'm all for it and promise to cut out all sarcasm if you will do it.
Cool. You'll get the data for sure. I can't take photos and digitize my sessions at offline casinos so it'll take me a while to build up data through online sessions.
Quote: WizardofnothingGuess you just don't realize you premise is flawed and will fight till the death/ just like the Muslim extremists with 70 virgins waiting in heaven for them once they kill everyone who doesn't believe them. Their argument is not at all flawed either
Haha. That's extreme, considering I gave you reasonable responses and demonstrated my opinion on Bac isn't based on confirmation bias through reading only source materials that reinforced it.
So, whatever bro! Haha.
Teliot from apheat.net even tried to solve the is baccarat countable theory.
YOU CANNOT BEAR. Baccarat unless edge sorting or cheating, I'm just dumbfounded that you really thing that when the cards are shuffled there is a distinguishable pattern created that you can see mid shoe
Quote: chancekamariEasy, a pattern player typically bet with every opportunity he gets in attempting to maximize his wins. I don't. I might see the same patterns he does, but I don't bet for that reason.
Let's use a basic example: 2 Player wins, 1 Banker, 2 Player wins again, 1 Banker win again
That seems like a pattern developing.
It seems like it, but, there is no reason to believe that the pattern will continue.
Quote:Even when I see that, I wouldn't bet on Banker after every 2 Player wins because I'm not so sure the next instance of consecutive Player wins is going to stop at 2 in a row like the pattern implies it would.
The pattern implies no such thing. the odds of the next hand being P/B can not be determined by the past pattern of P/B results.
Quote:What that basic example tells me is Player is trending.
Past performance does not predict future results.
Quote:Typically when that happens, I would wait until I feel it's the right time to bet on Player then I bet.
in other words, you guess.
Quote:So a pattern might develop and we might be playing the same thing, but a pattern player would for sure bet more often than I do for different reasons.
in other words, you guess less frequently.
Quote: WizardofnothingI have a really dear friend that swore if you start betting after four bankers In a row you had an edge
Hahahah!!! I've met people that think like this. LMAO!
Not including your friend (ahaha), there's a bunch of smarter people out there, but they've all approached Bac the wrong way. I'll show you a different way. Until the data comes out, there's really not much else to say.
Quote: Dalex64It seems like it, but, there is no reason to believe that the pattern will continue.
The pattern implies no such thing. the odds of the next hand being P/B can not be determined by the past pattern of P/B results.
Past performance does not predict future results.
These counter points are based on taking my response out of context. Re-read what I said as a whole.
Quote: Dalex64in other words, you guess.
in other words, you guess less frequently.
Yes! Exactly what I've been saying. How I win is based mostly on patience and money management. I don't have a system or fail-safe plan to bet if this happens or if that happens.
Quote: chancekamari
Let's use a basic example: 2 Player wins, 1 Banker, 2 Player wins again, 1 Banker win again
That seems like a pattern developing. Even when I see that, I wouldn't bet on Banker after every 2 Player wins because I'm not so sure the next instance of consecutive Player wins is going to stop at 2 in a row like the pattern implies it would. What that basic example tells me is Player is trending. Typically when that happens, I would wait until I feel it's the right time to bet on Player then I bet.
Is it too early in the day for me to break out the Black Velvet?
Quote: Mission146Is it too early in the day for me to break out the Black Velvet?
Take what you will from my replies. I don't have 30 minutes to an hour to dedicate to every question. And if you like nit picking out of context, have at it. ;-)
Think I'm done here guys. Be back in a few months with the data.
Quote: WizardofnothingWe do not need the Data we already know what it will be. No one chasing you away you are more the welcome here just don't come into a math based forum and tell us two plus two equals 3.14
Since it is a math-based forum, raw, un-falsified data might be the only thing that will open up people's eyes. I am not trying to convince you 2 + 2 = Pi
I'm trying to say Bac is 2 + X = Y and what's known of Bac so far is only a part of the equation; the equation is incomplete.
However, I'm still done here. This topic is 8 pages long now and people on the opposite of the debate clearly don't have the patience to read everything before posting a new reply. And, I don't blame them. At the same time, I don't want to keep repeating myself while knowing only data will convince people otherwise.
In order to make a bet you don't really need to know the rationale for the drawing rules but only understand how to add up the cards and natural 8s and 9s. However it makes it more enjoyable if you can understand what's going on.Quote: chancekamari...The best way to learn how to play Baccarat is by watching someone play...
Personally I think it is useful to think of the game as a head-to-head game (like James Bond plays) where the dealer doesn't see your cards but only the card you draw or decision to pass. That way you can appreciate why the dealer sometimes stands when beaten and draws when clearly winning. Therefore I feel the best way a beginner can learn is to find a friend and play a few games.
The other way is to work out the strategy from first principles - that's the way I learnt Blackjack!
But to be fair, chancekamari did make one one legit point in my opinion. And that is about not playing on tilt. Same goes with intoxication, fatigue, depression, etc. Anything that may make create moments you play above your comfort zone or bankroll (in either a postive or negative EV game) is not a good thing. So while I agree with the premise that losing x% of your bankroll is the time to call it a day, and try again another day won't impact the cards whatsoever, if you are someone who doesn't have good bankroll management and bet sizing skills, and may attempt to increase the wager to re-coup the losses faster, then taking a break is a good idea.
Quote: MidwestAPnot playing on tilt
I think we can all agree that various things claimed make common sense, sure. I'm sure even the Wizard has said not to play on tilt etc. As you note, though, it doesn't change the EV to something positive.
Sometimes somebody will show a strategy that has you 'not bet' for various reasons. It can be the only thing that is good about it, if it really means giving less action.
If I told you I or someone had a system or method (whatever you want to call it) that could beat a baccarat game that had a 90% house advantage would you believe it was possible? Be honest.Quote: chancekamari.
Of course not, because that's absolutely ridiculous. You absolutely understand that 90% HA is impossible to win given a certain number of hands( certainly I could get lucky and use money management to control losses. Perhaps I bet $1000 on one hand get lucky and win. The remainder of the time I bet $5 and $10.)
Again I'm sure you understand that overcoming a 90% HA is absolutely ridiculous.
In the same way that you believe and understand how ridiculous it is that someone can overcame a 90% HA. It's equality ridiculous to believe that someone can beat a .5% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% and so on. It just takes longer for the smaller HA's to materialize. It's really that simple
if its -EV you will not have an advantage and eventually you will lose. You can only play silly games with yourself and stop when you're ahead or walk when you're down. You're system may produce more winning days, but only because you STOP when you're ahead. Eventually you will have many losing days.
Not going on tilt only delays the inevitable and preserves your BR. Make 1 big bet of 10k or $100 bets of $100. There's really no difference. There's zero chance betting $100 100 times you'll be ahead $9500Quote: MidwestAPI didn't watch the video as I already know that any bac 'strategy' can't turn a negative EV game into a positive EV game. And by sitting out many hands, all you are really doing is extending the bankroll, but the end result has the same mathematical expectation.
But to be fair, chancekamari did make one one legit point in my opinion. And that is about not playing on tilt. Same goes with intoxication, fatigue, depression, etc. Anything that may make create moments you play above your comfort zone or bankroll (in either a postive or negative EV game) is not a good thing. So while I agree with the premise that losing x% of your bankroll is the time to call it a day, and try again another day won't impact the cards whatsoever, if you are someone who doesn't have good bankroll management and bet sizing skills, and may attempt to increase the wager to re-coup the losses faster, then taking a break is a good idea.
Betting 10k you could win the hand.
