Keno questions???
1 thing that I do know is that the machine is not just programmed to win or lose based on previous results. The long run payout percent is based on everyone's play and it will never go positive in the long run. If it does then they pull it or make the same 7 pick worth less money.
Again I am no expert and someone will probably explain it better.
Quote: repo11I love to play Keno; 20 card is my favorite. Usually I do ok----that means I lose, but get a lot of play. Recently however, I and my wife got completely crushed. Then a guy, not trying to ruin our fun, did exactly that. He seemed to make sense, but we are not experts so anyone who can help please do. What he said was there was no point in playing patterns, which we love, or moving numbers, which we do; because it is not truly a random number generator machine. His reasoning goes like this....state laws govern payback percentages. So if you "could" pick numbers it would be possible for the machine to payout more that the factory settings would allow, or payout much less that the state would allow. He claimed the machines have three phases, and what you do has little or no influence. Phase one---you will not win; the machine will not allow a jackpot because it is at or above it's programed payout. Phase two---now it is truly random and you may win or lose based on your number selection, because the machine is neutral. Phase 3---you will hit something big because the machine is below the state minimum and therefore will hit no matter how you play. If true this would really stink, because I like Keno because I feel like I actually won by picking the right seven numbers based on what I see the machine doing. It feels better than just pulling a handle hoping to get lucky---I think I am actually picking the right numbers the machine randomly generates. Yet I can't get around his point that truly random numbers would pay far below the state minimum over time based on the odds of hitting seven out of seven and the payout for doing so. Can anyone help??? Please explain how a Keno machine works...are the numbers random or not. Thanks so much, Steve and Jennifer
Hi, Steve and Jennifer. Welcome to the forum!
My non-math-guy take: While it's possible the guy you talked to is right, it's highly unlikely, and illegal in most US jurisdictions. The UK has some machines that work like this, and there might be some crooked online casinos that do it, but not here. The Random Number Generators (RNG) used in most games (including Keno) are required to be random to a certified (high) degree, and watched over by outside regulators. They tend to function as they are supposed to.
The return on any Keno game is theoretical. It's based on the long run, on millions of draws, sometimes billions. The return is dictated by the paytable. The odds that paytable pays are what determines the return. They don't make money (over the long run) when you lose; they make money by not paying you a full odds amount when you win. For illustration only (not real life), maybe 1 in every 25 cards, you should get 3 hits out of 8 numbers on average. But they only pay you 20:1, not 25:1. That's going to be partly because they're paying other wins like 4 of 8, 5 of 8, etc. (so overall you win more than 1 in 25 times) and partly because they need to make money on the game.
So I would say, if you're happy with the theoretical return on the game you're playing, and enjoy picking your patterns or methods, you should go right ahead and play with confidence in the fairness of the RNG used.
Some places offer Class II gaming, where the results of your slot spin or keno pick are actually determined by a bingo game or lottery being shared by all players on the machines (the house takes a portion of each pot, but you're not playing directly against the house). The video results you see are just for show. You see this most often in Native American casinos. However, the bingo or lotto result was, itself, determined by a fair RNG, and awarded to you (or the person on the next machine over) in the form of a win or loss on the game you're playing. It's still random.
First off, I would disregard anything that guy has to say about keno.Quote: repo11I love to play Keno; 20 card is my favorite. Usually I do ok----that means I lose, but get a lot of play. Recently however, I and my wife got completely crushed. Then a guy, not trying to ruin our fun, did exactly that. He seemed to make sense, but we are not experts so anyone who can help please do. What he said was there was no point in playing patterns, which we love, or moving numbers, which we do; because it is not truly a random number generator machine. His reasoning goes like this....state laws govern payback percentages. So if you "could" pick numbers it would be possible for the machine to payout more that the factory settings would allow, or payout much less that the state would allow. He claimed the machines have three phases, and what you do has little or no influence. Phase one---you will not win; the machine will not allow a jackpot because it is at or above it's programed payout. Phase two---now it is truly random and you may win or lose based on your number selection, because the machine is neutral. Phase 3---you will hit something big because the machine is below the state minimum and therefore will hit no matter how you play. If true this would really stink, because I like Keno because I feel like I actually won by picking the right seven numbers based on what I see the machine doing. It feels better than just pulling a handle hoping to get lucky---I think I am actually picking the right numbers the machine randomly generates. Yet I can't get around his point that truly random numbers would pay far below the state minimum over time based on the odds of hitting seven out of seven and the payout for doing so. Can anyone help??? Please explain how a Keno machine works...are the numbers random or not. Thanks so much, Steve and Jennifer
Its as random as you can get, Its probably more random than a deck of cards shuffled by a human.
Patterns don't matter, you as a human are programmed to recognize patterns. People see faces in toast, and find objects in clouds. Again. you're seeing meaningless patterns.
It doesn't matter if the machine has just hit a jackpot or not, you are just as likely to hit the exact same set of numbers on the very next spin no matter what percentage the machine is holding.
The reason you guys are probably getting crushed is because the average video keno hold is about 9% ( OUCH!!!!)
BTW the fact you guys are suddenly getting crushed, is Just another pattern you guys are noticing. You should be getting crushed and 20 card keno should be speeding up that process. Sure you can get lucky and run good on 7 spots and be ahead but eventually no matter what you do(excluding promotions and a good keno progressive) you can't beat keno.
You should try to find a keno simulator and auto run a bunch of sessions with a few thousand keno draws at a time. You will see just how fast your money gets sucked down.
I suggest you learn Video poker and play that instead of keno, you can actually find games that are +EV.
If you're dead set on believing you can beat keno and you think there's something to it, I suggest getting Powerful Profits From Keno By Victor H Royor.
Quote: AxelWolfFirst off, I would disregard anything that guy has to say about keno.
Its as random as you can get, Its probably more random than a deck of cards shuffled by a human.
Patterns don't matter, you as a human are programmed to recognize patterns. People see faces in toast, and find objects in clouds. Again. you're seeing meaningless patterns.
It doesn't matter if the machine has just hit a jackpot or not, you are just as likely to hit the exact same set of numbers on the very next spin no matter what percentage the machine is holding.
The reason you guys are probably getting crushed is because the average video keno hold is about 9% ( OUCH!!!!)
BTW the fact you guys are suddenly getting crushed, is Just another pattern you guys are noticing. You should be getting crushed and 20 card keno should be speeding up that process. Sure you can get lucky and run good on 7 spots and be ahead but eventually no matter what you do(excluding promotions and a good keno progressive) you can't beat keno.
You should try to find a keno simulator and auto run a bunch of sessions with a few thousand keno draws at a time. You will see just how fast your money gets sucked down.
I suggest you learn Video poker and play that instead of keno, you can actually find games that are +EV.
If you're dead set on believing you can beat keno and you think there's something to it, I suggest getting Powerful Profits From Keno By Victor H Royor.
Thanks Axel,
I thought of answering the OP but found it daunting. You nailed it.
Pick 1-20, any 20, your birthday and all your nephews and nieces birthdays. It doesn't matter. Pick the same 20 numbers over and over again. It doesn't affect the outcome. Any combinations of a 20-pick are just as likely to win as any other.
But I'm pretty sure that no one ever has or ever will hit all 20.
Quote: repo11Thanks for your thoughts----I guess I still do not understand if the numbers the machine picks are truly random how they control the payout??
The probabilities are fixed. The amount of the payouts determines the overall house edge.
Take this example:
Consider a (lame) casino game where you flip a fair coin. Heads and tails both have a 50% chance of coming up. You pay $1 to play, and you win $2 when you get it correct. Say you pick heads each time.
Expected value is:
((Probability of heads * net win) + (Probability of tails * net win))
((0.5 * $2) + (0.5 * $0)) = $1 + $0 = $1
Over time, you'll break even.
Now do the same thing, except heads only wins $1.50
((0.5 * $1.50) + (0.5 * $0)) = $0.75 + $0 = $0.75
That's equivalent to a 25% house edge, although the probabilities haven't changed. Keno is the same concept, just on a larger scale. You can change the payouts without changing the probabilities.
Does that help?
