The purpose of this post is to offer a preview of my page on Alaska pull-tabs. Before I make live links on the Wizard of Odds, please feel free to ask questions and make comments, suggestions, or corrections.
Here is a link to my pull-tab' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>https://wizardofodds.com/games/pulltab/index.html]pull-tab page.
Good thinking, but don't ever forget that the cruise line probably already knows that. One cruise line official was recently found to be tipping off a crew of burglars who always hit the home on the first night.
>please feel free to ask questions and make comments, suggestions, or corrections.
Perhaps you might discuss the question of does the buyer know whether the major prizes have already been awarded? A small batch of tickets is printed, but the very first one sold could be the grand prize winner so that all subsequent sales would be akin to a poker player who was "drawing dead", that is expectantly looking at additional cards but unknowingly there were no outs available to him.
Theoretically there might be a certain chance and I don't know if its Combinations or Permutations or Factorials or Fractions, but once the real prizes are sold the rest of the pull tabs are junk. So the buyer really should be asking himself not what is the expected return for the first purchaser but what is the expected return for his purchase.
On-Edit: Perhaps I should not have asked this question as its a bit like asking what the next roll of the dice will actually be rather than what the chances are.
That is a good question, which I just added something about. They don't sell one batch at a time, but add a new batch to a bin when the previous batch runs low. The agent in Anchorage did not give me any hints, nor the other cusomter in the store, about which she thought might have a lot of winners left.
This is contrary to a cruise I took, where they made the point many times in trying to sell pull tabs before a show that the big winner was still unclaimed.
Quote: ahiromuLooks good, quality is that of your other pages on WoO. The only thing I could think of when reading it was "when does this become an advantage game" and "when are the odds terrible". Those questions are way too open ended, but that is the only thing I was left with.
Thanks. I tried to address improving on the odds with this statement:
There is also an effect of non-replacement with pull tabs. If you buy some pull tabs of the same kind, and your results are less than expectations, then it would be likely that the pull-tabs in the rest of the bin should exceed expectations. To very marginally increase your expected return, buy tickets of a given kind one at a time until your actual results exceed expectations, and then stop. However, you could end up buying hundreds, or thousands of tickets, employing this strategy. More practical advice would be to buy as few as you need to have some fun, and then leave.
The odds would almost never be in your favor, and when they were, you wouldn't know it. It would help if the outlet employees kept close track of the results, and alerted you to when a batch was ripe with high-paying tickets. Even with that, I don't think it is a practical advantage play. The bottom line is they are a sucker bet, but at least better than lottery tickets.
The casinos did an interest thing, usually. There would be a big prize-type drum at the front of the room. You could buy as many pull tabs as you wanted, but not open the windows. Then you write your name on the back of the pull-tabs and hand them back to the person you bought the pull tabs from. (That's how they would verify they weren't pre-opened.) Then, all those un-opened pull tabs were put in the big rotating drum. At some point during the bingo night, an employee would spin the drum, and pull out one pull tab. The lucky person with their name on the back of the pull tab would win ALL the pull tabs. And, of course, they would have to open all the windows on all the tabs, and whatever they win, they win.
I was always amazed by this, and somewhat convinced that you could probably figure out how many to buy compared to the probably number of pull tabs in the drum, and thus maximize your chances of having your name drawn and winning all those glorious pull tabs.
Ahh memories.
Has nothing to do with your page, but still, strange memories. :)
Quote: Wizard
The odds would almost never be in your favor, and when they were, you wouldn't know it. It would help if the outlet employees kept close track of the results, and alerted you to when a batch was ripe with high-paying tickets. Even with that, I don't think it is a practical advantage play. The bottom line is they are a sucker bet, but at least better than lottery tickets.
all these nonprofit clubs back in my hometown such as the VFW, American Legion, and Moose Lodge all had these pulltab games there. they were dealt out of vending machines. if a player was playing a machine, he could put a cardboard cutout on top of the machine stating that it was being played and other players would respect this. but as soon as he quit playing and if he never hit anything big, all the other players would try to then grab that machine realizing their odds were a little better.
Quote: konceptumWow, I haven't seen pull-tabs in a long time!
This trip was the first time I've seen physical pull-tabs outside of cruise ships. I emphasize "physical," because some states like Iowa and Florida have electronic pull-tabs, that show you what you won in the form of a poker or slot machine win. They say Alaska lags behind the rest of the country with trends, so maybe that explains it.
Is this the only form of state run gambling? If so, you might want to add that to the report.
You might also make mention of the limited pull tab use in the 48 states. (What about Hawaii? Seems like you need to make a field trip to find out...)
For the record, Foxwoods sells pull tabs. I don't think they track or report winners (I'll check when I go there next week.) They are sold at a booth outside the bingo hall, as well as at a window inside, and from bingo floorpeople. I do not think the floorpeople redeem winners.
The only other times I've ever seen pull tabs is at various charity events and church bingo.
Without an accurate track of winners claimed, and with the store's option to refill the bin at any time, I believe it never becomes an 'advantage' game.Quote: ahiromuThe only thing I could think of when reading it was "when does this become an advantage game" and "when are the odds terrible".
And that wasn't part of the Wiz' report - only that, theoretically, you can know when the expectation is greater or less than what is mathematically dictated, as well as when your own results are better then expected.
Quote: DJTeddyBear
Is this the only form of state run gambling? If so, you might want to add that to the report.
The only other form of gambling I noticed was that a pizza restaurant outside Denali National Park had a poker night while I was there. There was a modest entry fee, I think $20, and they awarded gift certificates to the winners. I wondered why if they could do it, why don't you see poker nights frequently all over Alaska. Several people I asked had no idea. One person in Valdez said it was legal to have full blown casino gambling as long as it was done as a "casino night" kind of event. However, I never saw any advertising for such a thing anywhere in the state.
I had the same kind of confussion about alcohol. Some people told me Alaska had a "card everybody" policy, which I found was usually followed. However, once in a restaurant and once in a liquor store I was not carded.
This thread is crying out for someone from AK to chime in.
I'd be willing to bet that the Casino Night thing is legal on an infrequent basis, and only when run by a charity.
I'd also be willing to bet that the pizzaria is running an illegal game. They may only get an occasional "slap on the wrist" type fine, particularly if 100% of the buy-in goes to the winners.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI meant, is the pull tabs the only form of state RUN gambling? I.E. They don't have any scratch-offs or ping-pong ball based lottery?
Here is a humorous site: http://akstatelottery.com/
"Home of the non-existent Alaska State Lottery"
They also have a poll asking what types of gambling Alaskans want, and more than a third appear to want a weekly lottery. Casinos and PowerBall are tied for second place.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI meant, is the pull tabs the only form of state RUN gambling? I.E. They don't have any scratch-offs or ping-pong ball based lottery?
Correct, pull-tabs are the only state run gambling. There is absolutely no lottery. Even the pull-tabs are not exactly state run. As stated on my page, the vendors have to give the state 30% of the net profit, and they are not allowed to advertise.
I forgot to mention earlier that Alaska has a limited number of bingo halls. I saw one in Anchorage. If I'm not mistaken, they have to be tribal run.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI'd also be willing to bet that the pizzaria is running an illegal game. They may only get an occasional "slap on the wrist" type fine, particularly if 100% of the buy-in goes to the winners.
Not to de-rail the thread, but here in Arizona, for-profit poker games outside of the legally accepted Indian casinos is considered illegal. However, any type of friendly game, wherein all the money is paid to players, and the house and/or dealers and/or whoever doesn't get a cut, is legally allowed.
This has caused a number of "poker rooms" to open up around the state. I've never seen one of them advertise per se, but they do have websites and signs on their buildings indicating they are a poker room. The run poker tournaments, and 100% of the buy-ins are paid back out to the players. Of course, there's also an "optional" dealer tip and other "optional" parts of the buy-in going to, well, I don't really know. These poker rooms are also stores, selling casino chips, t-shirts, hats, memorabilia, etc, etc.
As far as these poker rooms go, there has never been any real legal action taken. The attorney general has gone as far as saying that they're not sure they are breaking any laws anyway, since 100% of the buy-in is paid back out. The only real threats have come from the Indian casinos themselves, who see these poker rooms as competition, and are telling the state that by allowing them, it violates some part of the compact, and that violation could be enough for the Indian casinos to withhold paying any tax monies. Or something like that, I don't understand all the legalities.
The point being that the little pizzerias in Alaska are probably operating under some sort of similar "loop-hole" in the laws, so that they won't even be fined or slapped on the wrist, as long as 100% of buy-ins are paid out.
There are a few poker leagues in NJ where there is NO money exchanged, and even that is given a hard time in some counties. These leagues want to expand into NY, but can't because the laws are even tighter there.
If this is an illegal game, they are pretty brazen to advertise it on their web site. I guess my question is if they can do it, why don't you see bars in the bigger cities of AK doing the same? Even if you take a loss on the tournament, alcohol sales would hopefully more than make up for it.
Quote: WizardI just returned from 12 days in Alaska. Sorry I didn't report about my trip from the road, but I don't like to broadcast to the whole world that my house is empty.
Wiz
I did see a notice with your biography, your adress, and the price you paid for your new house (along with your picture).I won't show the link here.
It sort of seems ridiculous. I mean if they publish Oprah Winfrey's adress you expect her to have an army of security guards, but someone with some success who has a family and small children and no professional security doesn't need that information splashed all over the place.
Quote: pacomartinWiz
I did see a notice with your biography, your adress, and the price you paid for your new house (along with your picture).I won't show the link here.
It sort of seems ridiculous. I mean if they publish Oprah Winfrey's adress you expect her to have an army of security guards, but someone with some success who has a family and small children and no professional security doesn't need that information splashed all over the place.
I saw that too, and was not happy about it. However, I guess it is public record, so I don't have much basis to complain. Had it not been for that, I probably would have blogged from the road.
Quote: pacomartinWiz
I did see a notice with your biography, your adress, and the price you paid for your new house (along with your picture).I won't show the link here.
It sort of seems ridiculous. I mean if they publish Oprah Winfrey's adress you expect her to have an army of security guards, but someone with some success who has a family and small children and no professional security doesn't need that information splashed all over the place.
It's pretty easy to find out all that info in a matter of minutes, less if you are a trained professional at that sort of thing. It's all public unless you make a concerted effort to hide it.
(BTW, nice house! :P)
Quote: busybody
Gambling expert drops $xxxx for Summerlin abode
by xxxx, published July 31, 2009
Michael W. Shackleford and xxxx Shackleford bought the xxx-bedroom, x.x-bath home at xxxxxx.
The xxxx-square-foot house was built in xxxx in the Summerlin neighborhood.
Mr. Shackleford is a gaming consultant based in Las Vegas. He is a famous expert in designing slot machines at online casinos and analyzing new games for game developers and casinos. He runs a gambling website, wizardofodds.com.
He authored Gambling 102: The Best Strategies for All Casino Games and is a former contributing editor to Casino Player magazine. He previously served as an adjunct professor of casino math at the University of Nevada. Earlier, he was a claims adjuster and a professional actuary at the Social Security Administration, where he was recognized for researching the most popular baby names each year for the last several decades.
He earned his B.A. in math and economics from the University of California at Santa Barbara.
Quote: DJTeddyBearIn NJ, the slap on the wrist comes in the form of a fine for violating some obscure part of the liquor license....along with the threat that they can lose the liquor license. FYI: NJ liquor licenses are expensive and hard to get.
There are a few poker leagues in NJ where there is NO money exchanged, and even that is given a hard time in some counties. These leagues want to expand into NY, but can't because the laws are even tighter there.
There are underground poker games everywhere in NJ, in almost every decent sized town. Lots of "clubs" too, similar to "Rounders". Most of the time when they get busted, nothing happens to the players, and the "owner" gets PTI and the club moves a block away under a new person's umbrella. Last year I happened to be playing against a former NBA player.
As for the Pull Tabs, they are often used as Promotional items in Atlantic City. You'll get a mailer from Showboat for ten or fifteen or twenty pull tabs. I won about $100 from them once. Usually if you get 10-15, you win around $30.
Quote: DJTeddyBearUnderground games don't advertise. Word of mouth, sure. But not real ads or websites the way that the location in Alaska that the Wiz is talking about is doing.
I didn't say they advertise, but you can find them online with moderate effort.
The Kentucky Lottery has pull-tabs that are sold from vending machines in just about any major grocery store you go into. They have a web page with a small amount of info about each game. For example, a game called "Kiss My Grits" shows this data as of time of posting:
Start Date | March 4, 2010 |
---|---|
Game End | TBD |
Last Date to Claim | TBD |
Value | $0.50 |
Top Prize | $130 |
Odds | 1:8.89 |
Game # | 70 |
Church picnics and Bingo halls are virtually guaranteed to have pull-tabs available. The floor is littered with losing pull-tabs at the end of the night. Coincidentally, I will be going to a church picnic tonight, and could supply some information about the games. The ones I generally see at these events not only have instant prizes, but have a drawing for $100 for a subset of tickets with a special number or symbol on them. I'll pick the brains of the people running the pull-tab booth to find out how many pull-tabs are in a set, and how many sets they have available in one night.
You missed my point.Quote: cclub79I didn't say they advertise, but you can find them online with moderate effort.
The game that the Wiz was talking about is NOT underground. They advertise openly.
Quote: DJTeddyBearYou missed my point.
The game that the Wiz was talking about is NOT underground. They advertise openly.
I assure you I did not. I was merely adding some texture to the discussion regarding poker games outside of the casinos in New Jersey. But you are incorrect anyway, because I have seen them advertised online fairly openly.
First of all, by the very name of the site, it's obvious that this is a merely listing of home games. Are some of the listings for something that qualifies as an underground casino? Maybe. Probably. But it's hard to tell.
Second, the venue the Wiz is talking about, advertises the poker game on their own web site (and presumably with signs in the restaurant too). That's very different.
So irrespective of when the bins are being re-filled or whether anyone is tracking the interim results, the wager being offered is not really a sensible one. Alcohol, frustration ... and the fact that the price is low appeal to impulsive decision-makers.
People who engage in a night of poker playing are primarily seeking entertainment and perhaps doing it in an atmosphere of a charity or at least a Non-Rake situation. Many of these social poker situations do get raided from time to time despite there being fundraisers for charities. Its hardly a sensible use of law enforcement resources to arrest grandmothers playing penny ante poker and perhaps not a sensible use of law enforcement resources to even bother about those who offer pull tabs to frustrated convenience-store patrons.