The Cap Trap

I got home tonight bout 10 PM , or I should say That Bar next door. I swallowed a bunch of whiskey in honor of being home. I was feeling rode hard and put up wet until I got that booze in me. Now I'm booze strong but thinking about the last two weeks. A 13 day road trip in which I under performed. I got my ass kicked on some plays that thoroughly hit my bottom line. I limped home with a $5100 earn. Clearly $1400 under expectation. I got caught in the cap trap. On one play in particular I got caught in the cap trap. I was always wondering when it was gonna happen. It finally did. Its the reason for my dismal performance. I'll explain the cap trap to you when I sober up.

Quote: mickeycrimm

I got home tonight bout 10 PM , or I should say That Bar next door. I swallowed a bunch of whiskey in honor of being home. I was feeling rode hard and put up wet until I got that booze in me. Now I'm booze strong but thinking about the last two weeks. A 13 day road trip in which I under performed. I got my ass kicked on some plays that thoroughly hit my bottom line. I limped home with a $5100 earn. Clearly $1400 under expectation. I got caught in the cap trap. On one play in particular I got caught in the cap trap. I was always wondering when it was gonna happen. It finally did. Its the reason for my dismal performance. I'll explain the cap trap to you when I sober up.

I didn't net $5100. The hotel bill alone was $700.

Quote: mickeycrimm

I didn't net $5100. The hotel bill alone was $700.

You pay for hotels?

hitting the table cap?
if so, ask for it to be raised?

Okay. I'm slightly overhung but I think I'll make it. Good to be home, baby. I ain't gonna hit a lick at anything until January. Gonna lay on my ass through the holidays. Then I got a short road trip planned,

So anyways, I have to explain the cap trap to you. There's this $1 keno play. It's not like I get a lot of plays at it. The game has been out about three years and I've probably put down about 60 plays on it because its hard to find a decent number. Its a progressive but not like you think.

You can play anywhere from two to ten numbers. The best payscale is the three-spot which pays 1 bet for 2/3 and 26 bets for the solid three. This payscale comes in at 49.95%.

But there is something else going on. While you are playing your numbers the machine makes five picks. This is very important. There are two meters on the game and both of them have to do with the five machine picks. There is the 4/5 meter. Anytime 3 of the five machine picks hit it puts 1 bet into the 4/5 meter. When 4/5 machine picks hit you get the money in the meter plus an extra ten bets. Since the frequency for 3/5 is 11.91 it is equivalent to an 8.4% progressive meter. 1/11.91 = 8.3963%. And the ten extra bets is worth 12.09%. Ten/82.7 = 12.09%. So now the game is up to 70.4363%.

49.95% + 8.3963% = 12.09% = 70.4363%

Now, for the 5/5 meter. Anytime you hit 3/5 it puts 2 bets in the 5/5 meter. 2/11.91 = 16.7926%. How do you like that for meter strength, friends and neighbors? That ain't the end of it. When you hit 4/5 machine picks it puts 3 bets into the 5/5 meter. 3/82.7 = 3.6276%.

16.79265 + 3.6276% means we have the equivalent of a 20.4202% progressive meter. And the overall return of the game is 70.4363% + 20.4202% = 90.8565%.

The cost to put this play down is easy to calculate. It's a dollar game. The frequency of 5/5 is 1550.57. Your taking a 29.5637% drop between solid five hits.

The cost to run one cycle is:

100% minus 70.4363% = 29.5637%
1550.57 * 29.5637% = $458

In one cycle you are expected to put $316 in the 5/5 meter.

1550.57 * 20.4202% = $316

My mininum number on this game has been $260. If I find the 5/5 meter at that number or higher I grab a seat.

$260 + 316 = $576

$576 minus the cost of $458 equates to an average $118 earn on the play. Playing on turbo speed and laying my finger on the start sensor on the screen I crank out 40 games per minute. So the average seat time is about 40 minutes. So my time in these spots is worth about $180 an hour. That is, if the meter didn't cap. That's the problem with this play. By state law no jackpot can exceed $800. If you pick up a play at $260 and miss the solid five for about 1.7 cycles the meter is gonna cap. I call this situation the cap trap. The progressive money will then roll over into the next meter after the solid five is hit.

I've ran pretty lucky at this game. Before this last road trip I had only been in the cap trap twice. And I didn't lose much on those plays. I lost $6 on one and $17 on the other. But I knew that sooner or later I was gonna run badly and take a shellacking at the game.

So on this last road trip I walk in this joint one morning and find a meter at $672. I'm licking my chops. It's big win territory. I grabbed a seat. The meter capped right off the bat. $1900 and 4.6 cycles later I finally hit the damn thing. So I lost $1100. I knew from experience that running through $1900 would put on average more than $1200 into the meter. So I was expecting it to come back capped and it did. So here we go again. The second time through took me 3.3 cycles and $1600 to hit the damn thing. My balls were frosted. I was stuck $1900 at this point.

And, of course the damn thing came back capped again. So here we go again. This time it took me only 1.5 cycles to hit the solid five. The game played very well through the third play and I made up $500 of the money. It came back capped again. The fourth time through I snapped it off in half a cycle but only made $500. So now I'm still stuck $900. The meter came back on $482. I'm thinking to myself "Damn, if I wind up in the cap trap again I'm going to shoot myself." But it came off pretty fast and I made $385.

So I wound up losing $515. But worse than that the damn play soaked up the whole stinking day and I wasn't able to make any money at anything else.

So that's what the cap trap is friends and neighbors. Maybe some of you math guys can explain to me what this play is really worth because of the cap trap. That kind of math is way over my head.

Quote: FleaStiff

You pay for hotels?

Well, you know I'm the guy that developed the Laughlin RFB 362 strategy. But here in Montana I don't get anything free. These are little slot parlors, 20 machines max. The only thing I get comped is the coffee while I'm playing. I pay my whole freight. On roads trips my expenses, travel, lodging and meals, generally runs about 20% of my earn.

Quote: FleaStiff

You pay for hotels?

They have slot clubs here. But the only ones I will join is the ones where they don't track your coin-in/coin-out. I don't want these people to know a damn thing about me so I forgo the half percent cashback or whatever.

Only MickeyCrimm could be overhung even after he gets frosty balls. Show us the way, Mickey!

Quote: mickeycrimm

But here in Montana I don't get anything free.

Why would you play in MT when for
far less than the $700 you could fly R/T
to Vegas and get everything comped
and have a better playing field.

Pretty much what I thought it would be. Gazellions is like that, but it's gone here and sorely missed.

Quote: EvenBob

Why would you play in MT when for
far less than the $700 you could fly R/T
to Vegas and get everything comped
and have a better playing field.

I think Mickey will argue that he finds better plays in Montana and has a lot less competition. It sounds like he only works a trip once a month or so and is able to pick off quite a bit of low hanging fruit with little variance. From his comments it seems like he is making a comfortable living without working very hard. I am guessing the Vegas guys are working much harder for their money.

Quote: EvenBob

Why would you play in MT when for
far less than the $700 you could fly R/T
to Vegas and get everything comped
and have a better playing field.

Just dealing with the real world, Bob. I blew my opportunity to be a millionaire by gambling. To busy sniffing the poseys. Dancer dont have jack on me. I'll run circles around his punk ass. But he dont have a drinking habit and i do. He dont have a big sky complex and i do. i really dont care anymore. I can whip out $80,000 a year and not have to work that hard to do it, maybe half the days in the year. I'm happy where I'm at. I'm never going to be the guy that said he out ran all the machine pros on the earth. But I know my ability. If I wanted to I would have out ran them all. My ability is far superior to them all. They are lucky that the Mick dont care. Because if I did all those big name pros wouldn't be doing anything but eating my dust.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Just dealing with the real world, Bob. .

And the real world says go where the
lodging and meals are free, and your
choice of where to play is almost
unlimited. I don't like Vegas either,
but there's no place like it.

Quote: EvenBob

Why would you play in MT when for
far less than the $700 you could fly R/T
to Vegas and get everything comped
and have a better playing field.

Bob, I'm the pioneer of the Montana plays. All these know it alls who have publsihed so much information about all the plays that used to be in Nevada are just so much bridge under the water. I'm the pioneer. I know enough about gambling that I don't have to follow the rest of the pack. I BLAZE MY OWN TRAIL. I know how to do a cost/benefit analysis. Nevada is not a better playing field. I don't want to speak about it in the real loud. Why would a hard core Nevada hustler like me be in Montana? Figure it out on your own.

Are there no sheep in Nevada ?

Quote: aladyat42

Are there no sheep in Nevada ?

The North Dakatons and the Minnesotans are the originators of those sheep jokes. They have a bad habit of blaming it on the Montanans. They should check their own citizens for sex with a sheep. A Montanan is to much of a man to have sex with a sheep.

And yet so many boys in Montana are named Baaaasil.

Not gonna quote the whole cap trap post, but what a classic! Great learning experience there. Thanks, mickey!

Quote: mickeycrimm

The North Dakatons and the Minnesotans are the originators of those sheep jokes. p.

And they blame it on you. I like this one:

A cowboy from Montana and a cowboy from California are on a sheep drive. They have been out for weeks and have been pulling sheep out of the mud and working really hard. Eventually they come across a sheep with her head stuck in the fence.

They are both very lonely, so the cowboy from Montana says "I'm first!" and he drops his pants and mounts the sheep. When he is finished, he steps back, looks at the California cowboy, and says "You're next".

The California cowboy drops his pants and sticks his head in the fence.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Not gonna quote the whole cap trap post, but what a classic! Great learning experience there. Thanks, mickey!

You are so right Babs. These are the posts people can really learn from.

Quote: DRich

I think Mickey will argue that he finds better plays in Montana and has a lot less competition. It sounds like he only works a trip once a month or so and is able to pick off quite a bit of low hanging fruit with little variance. From his comments it seems like he is making a comfortable living without working very hard. I am guessing the Vegas guys are working much harder for their money.

You pretty much hit the nail right on the head, Rich. When I sweep through a town and knock everything down I have to give that town at least a months soak time before the plays build back up. I have established routes that I run. Its all routine. I stay in the same hotels, but I mix it up with the meals.

Could I do better in Nevada? I don't think so. I know that Reno/Carson/Tahoe is no good anymore. The same with Laughlin. I dont know about Vegas right now. I would just have to go there and survey things out. But as they say....a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I think I'll just stay right where I'm at.

Quote: EvenBob

And the real world says go where the
lodging and meals are free, and your
choice of where to play is almost
unlimited. I don't like Vegas either,
but there's no place like it.

Although I've worked them heavily in the past, comps are not the end all. Let's say you are worth $30 an hour in the poker game. But you can get a room comp for running $10,000 in action on the machines. Do they have a positive expectation machine you can run the action on? Probably not. So lets say their best game is 99.54%. Your theoretical loss is $46. So you aren't getting that room for free. You can run the action at dollar denom in a couple of hours. But to do that you are giving up $60 in expectation in the poker game. So you are actually paying $106 for the room. In a lot of spots it would be cheaper to pay for the room and go sit in the poker game.