Hypothetical 'Hi-Lo' Dice Game
(a) is my 'average chance' per roll figure of about 71.444% correct?
(b) is it beatable?
(c) if it is beatable, then is my figure of about 4.239% player edge correct?
---------------------------------
List of rules (parameters) :
2 Dice are rolled (2 is lowest total and 12 is highest total)
On totals 8 to 12, you can either choose 'higher or same', or 'lower' (lower is the best option)
On totals 2 to 6, you can either choose 'lower or same', or 'higher' (higher is the best option)
If a total of 7 comes up, you can either choose 'lower or same', or 'higher or same' (both options are equally 'good')
The average chance per roll is about 71.444% (if choosing the best option every time)
You have to pick 5 in a row correctly, and the payout is $5.60 or $23 to 5 (if you prefer to express the odds that way)
the average chance of picking 5 in a row, choosing the best option each time, is about 18.614%
the RTP is about 104.239% (is is a 4.239% player advantage)
-----------------------------------
Quote: ksdjdjIf the dice game below is fair, then:
(a) is my 'average chance' per roll figure of about 71.444% correct?
(b) is it beatable?
(c) if it is beatable, then is my figure of about 4.239% player edge correct?...
I get 71.450162% 71.45062% as the probability of winning one roll, and from that I get 4.284% as the player edge.
Quote: ksdjdjIf the dice game below is fair, then:
(a) is my 'average chance' per roll figure of about 71.444% correct?
(b) is it beatable?
(c) if it is beatable, then is my figure of about 4.239% player edge correct?
---------------------------------
List of rules (parameters) :
2 Dice are rolled (2 is lowest total and 12 is highest total)
On totals 8 to 12, you can either choose 'higher or same', or 'lower' (lower is the best option)
On totals 2 to 6, you can either choose 'lower or same', or 'higher' (higher is the best option)
If a total of 7 comes up, you can either choose 'lower or same', or 'higher or same' (both options are equally 'good')
The average chance per roll is about 71.444% (if choosing the best option every time)
You have to pick 5 in a row correctly, and the payout is $5.60 or $23 to 5 (if you prefer to express the odds that way)
the average chance of picking 5 in a row, choosing the best option each time, is about 18.614%
the RTP is about 104.239% (is is a 4.239% player advantage)
-----------------------------------
Would be quite interested to know where this game is as it has already been signed and secured by an NDA in parts of Europe and a pending patent in the USA......
Just wondering is all................
Is the figure you got of about 71.45...% figure weighted over the 5 rolls, or is it just for the first roll?
The reason I ask is because, let's say you get a 4 on the first roll, that means you have about an 83.33% chance of making it to the next roll, but the average probability for the next roll winning is going to be about 68.055% (if you are successful on the first roll).
Quote: ksdjdjIs the figure you got of about 71.45...% figure weighted over the 5 rolls, or is it just for the first roll?
It's for the first two rolls combined. In other words, it's:
(probability of rolling 2 on the first roll x probability of rolling higher than 2 on the second roll)
+ (probability of rolling 3 on the first roll x probability of rolling higher than 3 on the second roll)
+ ...
+ (probability of rolling 6 on the first roll x probability of rolling higher than 6 on the second roll)
+ (probability of rolling 7 on the first roll x probability of rolling 7 or more (or 7 or less, which has the same probability) on the second roll)
+ (probability of rolling 8 on the first roll x probability of rolling lower than 8 on the second roll)
+ ...
+ (probability of rolling 12 on the first roll x probability of rolling lower than 12 on the second roll).
