mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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May 20th, 2014 at 8:57:31 PM permalink
Quote: Pokeraddict

Was this in Deadwood or the video lottery casinos?

Edit: I see you answered that. When I lived there SD Video Lottery machines could not return more than 92% theo on any wager.

The person I knew that worked for the big distributor said the machines could be pull tabs and some were. One exception was their crappy Game Kings.

I have no idea about this particular machine, but you may want to make sure it is actually using an RNG and not random award generator based on a predetermined hold. It sounds like this device wouldn't be legal under how I understand the law. They did change a few things after I left, like adding some slot games, so maybe they changed the max return as well.



I always do my homework. From what I've read online the South Dakota video lottery terminals are random and allow progressive meters that cannot be arbitrarily reset. The payback must be between 80 and 92%. But that's overall payback. That doesn't mean an exploitable short term situation cannot develop. I exploit plenty of games that have overall returns at 92% or less. All you need is strong progressive meters like the game I analyzed here.

An observation of the South Dakota Video Lottery scene. Only maybe 15% of the machines are modern. The rest are old antiquated VLT's. These machines and the bars they are in are private businesses. Most of the bars are run down dives. I think the lack of investment in modern equipment can be attributed to the high tax rate on the gambling win. The state takes half the frickin' earn.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Pokeraddict
Pokeraddict
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May 20th, 2014 at 10:34:05 PM permalink
I just wanted to make sure you had checked it out. A rep from a distributor stated that the machines were not required to be random so I was just passing that on. I hardly played them since the games are all awful.

The old VLTs have a potential vulture opportunity, although its EV is probably small. There is a game called Bonus Poker. It is not the IGT BP game. If a player gets a pair of 4's or 9's the wager goes into a progressive. The 4's must hit by 100 quarters and can hit any time after 20, while the 9's must hit by 500 quarters and may hit any time after 100.

The release of this jackpot, as I understood it, was not random. It was based on the recent hold of the game and if the hold was not high enough it would run to the max before hitting. From my experience vulturing it, I tend to agree.

As for the tax, the state gets half, but the bars are usually in 50/50 splits with the distributor as the bars and lottery casinos do not usually own their machines. This means the people that own the machines only get about 25%, or even less in busy locations.
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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May 22nd, 2014 at 5:38:20 AM permalink
So I've put this new machine and my analysis of ones of its games, Battlesship Keno, up here on WoV. I figure sooner or later someone (or maybe several people) from this forum is going to encounter some of these machines. And, ultimately, they are going to be able to tell if my analysis was correct.

There is another keno game on the machine called Pop & Win. Explaining this game will probably take me an hour or so. I don't think I have time this morning. I'll try to put it up tonight.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
JoePloppy
JoePloppy
Joined: May 2, 2014
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May 22nd, 2014 at 6:05:43 AM permalink
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Mickey. A lot of it was over my head but I read it a few times trying to learn. Slots are still foreign.
I'm in canada, so I will definitely look for this game,I'll let you know if I find it.
2/3
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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May 22nd, 2014 at 6:10:34 AM permalink
Wow so many new guys in Canada looking for slot and VP AP opportunities nowadays and they are all new to AP. Whats up with that?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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May 23rd, 2014 at 1:17:03 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

There is another keno game on the machine called Pop & Win. Explaining this game will probably take me an hour or so. I don't think I have time this morning. I'll try to put it up tonight.



Okay, so there is another exploitable game on the Blast called Pop & Win. I didn't fully analyze the game, I just snapped off a meter and left. Its a balloon themed game. You can play from two to ten spots. This game was just like the Battleship game, you could bet from one nickel up to $2 per game. So I just bet one nickel per game.

I'm gonna use rounded numbers for simplicity.

I played the 2-spot which paid 9 for 1. So the base game was 54%.

The keno balls are color coded: 20 are red, 20 are blue, 20 are yellow, 20 are green.

There are 4 progressive meters in the game. These were the numbers when I sat down:

Red Meter.............$2.40
Blue Meter...........$29.00
Yellow Meter.........$8.95
Green Meter........$11.35

When the color of the first ball out of the tank and the 20th ball out of the tank matched it put one nickel into the corresponding meter. If the first ball was red and the last ball was red it put one nickel into the red meter. Same thing for the other colors. After I confirmed this I jumped the bet level up to ten cents. The meters stayed the same. When the first and last balls matched colors it put ten cents into the corresponding meter. This confirmed to me that the game was highly exploitable. People betting 50 cents or $1 will hammer the meters way up then you come in behind them betting just one nickel, snapping the meters off until the game is negative.

The first and last balls will match colors every 4.1579 games. So, in effect, the progressive meters represent 24% of the payback of the game, or 6% each. Strong, Strong, Strong.

Every time you hit the start button the machine make three picks that are not in your set of numbers.
Whenever that 3-spot is hit you go into the bonus round.
Four tiles appear. Behind each tile is a color. You get to pick a tile.

If Red is behind the tile you picked you are automatically awarded the money in the red meter. Since the frequency of the 3-spot is 72 and your chances of picking the red tile is 1 in 4, then the cycle for the red meter is 288 games.

If blue is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 10 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the blue meter. Since the 3-spot frequency is 72 and your chances of picking the blue tile and 1 in 4, and you have a 50% chance of catching the jackpot, then the blue meter cycle is 576.

If yellow is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 8 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the yellow meter. Since the 3-spot frequency is 72, your chances of picking the yellow tile is 1 in 4 and you have a 40% chance of hitting the jackpot then the yellow meter cycle is 720.

If green is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 5 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the green meter. 72 X 4 X 4 puts the cycle at 1152.

On this play the blue meter, at $29, was my objective. And you can bet that whoever drove that meter that high was not betting just one nickel at a time. No, they were betting much more than that. I hit the red meter, then hit the blue meter, then cashed out and left.

I didn't check the other spots for payback but next time around I will. But my general rule on plays like this is to play as few numbers, 2-spot or 3-spot, as possible because it is so easy to capture all of the value.

Strategizing the Game:

If you find the red meter at $6.60 then you would have a 6% (meter) edge plus freerolling the other meters.

If you find the blue meter at $13.25 then you would have a 6% edge plus freerolling the yellow and green meters, plus you are expected to hit the red meter twice in 576 games.

If you find the yellow meter at $16.55 then you would have a 6% edge plus freerolling the green meter, plius you are expected to hit the red meter 2.5 times and the blue meter 1.2 times in 720 games.

If you find the green meter at $26 then you would have a 6% edge plus you are expected to hit the red meter 3.9 times, the blue meter 1.9 times, and the yellow meter 1.6 times in 1125 games.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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May 23rd, 2014 at 5:35:59 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

Okay, so there is another exploitable game on the Blast called Pop & Win. I didn't fully analyze the game, I just snapped off a meter and left. Its a balloon themed game. You can play from two to ten spots. This game was just like the Battleship game, you could bet from one nickel up to $2 per game. So I just bet one nickel per game.

I'm gonna use rounded numbers for simplicity.

I played the 2-spot which paid 9 for 1. So the base game was 54%.

The keno balls are color coded: 20 are red, 20 are blue, 20 are yellow, 20 are green.

There are 4 progressive meters in the game. These were the numbers when I sat down:

Red Meter.............$2.40
Blue Meter...........$29.00
Yellow Meter.........$8.95
Green Meter........$11.35

When the color of the first ball out of the tank and the 20th ball out of the tank matched it put one nickel into the corresponding meter. If the first ball was red and the last ball was red it put one nickel into the red meter. Same thing for the other colors. After I confirmed this I jumped the bet level up to ten cents. The meters stayed the same. When the first and last balls matched colors it put ten cents into the corresponding meter. This confirmed to me that the game was highly exploitable. People betting 50 cents or $1 will hammer the meters way up then you come in behind them betting just one nickel, snapping the meters off until the game is negative.

The first and last balls will match colors every 4.1579 games. So, in effect, the progressive meters represent 24% of the payback of the game, or 6% each. Strong, Strong, Strong.

Every time you hit the start button the machine make three picks that are not in your set of numbers.
Whenever that 3-spot is hit you go into the bonus round.
Four tiles appear. Behind each tile is a color. You get to pick a tile.

If Red is behind the tile you picked you are automatically awarded the money in the red meter. Since the frequency of the 3-spot is 72 and your chances of picking the red tile is 1 in 4, then the cycle for the red meter is 288 games.

If blue is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 10 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the blue meter. Since the 3-spot frequency is 72 and your chances of picking the blue tile and 1 in 4, and you have a 50% chance of catching the jackpot, then the blue meter cycle is 576.

If yellow is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 8 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the yellow meter. Since the 3-spot frequency is 72, your chances of picking the yellow tile is 1 in 4 and you have a 40% chance of hitting the jackpot then the yellow meter cycle is 720.

If green is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 5 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the green meter. 72 X 4 X 4 puts the cycle at 1152.

On this play the blue meter, at $29, was my objective. And you can bet that whoever drove that meter that high was not betting just one nickel at a time. No, they were betting much more than that. I hit the red meter, then hit the blue meter, then cashed out and left.

I didn't check the other spots for payback but next time around I will. But my general rule on plays like this is to play as few numbers, 2-spot or 3-spot, as possible because it is so easy to capture all of the value.

Strategizing the Game:

If you find the red meter at $6.60 then you would have a 6% (meter) edge plus freerolling the other meters.

If you find the blue meter at $13.25 then you would have a 6% edge plus freerolling the yellow and green meters, plus you are expected to hit the red meter twice in 576 games.

If you find the yellow meter at $16.55 then you would have a 6% edge plus freerolling the green meter, plius you are expected to hit the red meter 2.5 times and the blue meter 1.2 times in 720 games.

If you find the green meter at $26 then you would have a 6% edge plus you are expected to hit the red meter 3.9 times, the blue meter 1.9 times, and the yellow meter 1.6 times in 1125 games.



One of the beauties of a play like this will be taught in a future course called:

Penciiling the IRS 101
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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May 23rd, 2014 at 5:41:42 PM permalink
You really find a lot of progressive Keno opportunities. I have still yet to ever see a progressive Keno machine. The ones I see (in CA and Vegas) are all fixed-payout.

I do find the slot machines that you talk about though. Some great opportunities there! Also some slot play on the record is a good thing...
Pokeraddict
Pokeraddict
Joined: Feb 21, 2012
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May 23rd, 2014 at 6:11:24 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You really find a lot of progressive Keno opportunities. I have still yet to ever see a progressive Keno machine. The ones I see (in CA and Vegas) are all fixed-payout.

I do find the slot machines that you talk about though. Some great opportunities there! Also some slot play on the record is a good thing...



If you are in California I believe there are some reservation machines with Pot of Gold machines. These generally have 7+ spot progressives. Taverns in Las Vegas will sometimes have a Game King six-spot progressive.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 23rd, 2014 at 6:11:24 PM permalink
You would think these types of things would be always low because people would always play them too low because they seem too easy to win.
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