A New Machine With Potential For Exploitablility

While in South Dakota I came across a new machine. I did some googling on the manufacturer. This new machine is called THE BLAST and is made by Techlink Entertainment out of Nova Scotia. Evidently, they are licensed in Canada and Europe. And, so far, they are licensed in the South Dakota Lottery , Ohio Lottery , and West Virginia Lottery.

I only saw a few of these machines so it's not like they are everywhere yet. They have poker, keno and line games. So I went through the games looking for anything exploitable. I found a few games with potential and even got a couple of small plays on one of the games. The game I will describe is called Battleship Keno.

1. It comes in either nickels (1 to 40 coins) or quarters (1 to 8 coins).
2. You can play anywhere from 2 to 10 spots. I'll use the 2-spot for the example.
3. The game has a progressive meter....but it is not conventional.
4. You are playing two games at once.

First game:

The 2-spot payscale is:

.......... PAY.......FREQ.........CONTRIBUTION
1/2.......1..........2.63.............37.9747%
2/2.......7........16.63.............42.08866%

The game returns 80.0833%.

Second Game:

When you punch your numbers in, make your bet, then hit the start button the machine picks 5 random numbers that are not part of your group. They are represented by battleship symbols.

A. If 3 battleship symbols are hit during the game it will place 1 bet into the progressive meter.
B. If 4 battleship symbols are hit during the game it will place 2 bets into the progressive meter.
C. If all 5 battleship symbols are hit during the game you are awarded the progressive meter.

The numbers involved on this 5-spot are

3/5 frequency is 11.91
4/5 frequency is 82.70
5/5 frequency is 1550.57

So one bet goes into the meter every 11.91 games and two bets go into the meter every 82.7 games. This is equivalent to a 10.81% progressive meter.

Normally on a game like this an AP would figure "the cost" (the average cost to run one cycle) by multiplying the frequency of the 5-spot by the bet and the drop. Say the bet was $1 a game

1550.57 X $1 X 20% = $310.11

So if you found a meter on $310.11 you would have a 10.81% advantage (the meter rise being your advantage).

But there is one little rule in this game....actually....it's a VERY BIG RULE.

It doesn't matter if you are betting one coin, ten coins, twenty coins, or fourty coins, you QUALIFY FOR THE METER.

So if you were to find this game with $310.11 in the meter all you have to do is bet one nickel at a time until you hit the 5-spot. The cost would look like this:

1550.57 X 5 cents X 20% = $15.51

With the meter running at 10.81% your expectation would be to put $8.38 in the meter per cycle. So your average profit on this play would be $303.

The game plays at 20 GPM. So your average seat time (1550.57/20) would be about 80 minutes. A pretty nice hourly rate.

But you wouldn't have to wait on numbers nearly that big. Here's a typical scenario:

Player A plays 700 games betting $1 a game, doesn't hit the solid five, then takes a walk. The expectation is he would put about $76 in the meter. You come in behind betting one nickel per game. Your expectation is to put $8.38 in the meter on your way to hitting the solid five. Your cost is $15.51. Your expectation would be an average $69 win for about 80 minutes work.

This game has the potential for huge hourly rates with no downside risk.

Sounds like how all games should be setup. Let people learn to have and develop a gambling problem on their own instead of forcing the issue with required max bets.

Are you saying that a 5c bettor and a $1 bettor win the same currency amount on a 5-of-5 win? In other words, are you saying that the 5c bettor wins 20x the number of credits that the $1 bettor would have won?

This game reminds me of a version of Frost and Fire by Spielo with the sunshine pot working in a similar way. I'm guessing the pots begin at zero because it's the only way a game like this can exist and still be bet proportional by design.

Quote: MathExtremist

Are you saying that a 5c bettor and a $1 bettor win the same currency amount on a 5-of-5 win? In other words, are you saying that the 5c bettor wins 20x the number of credits that the $1 bettor would have won?

Yes, that's it exactly. There is only one meter on the game. And it doesn't matter if you are betting one nickel or $2, you qualify for the meter. And they are stand alone progressives.

Quote: MathExtremist

Are you saying that a 5c bettor and a $1 bettor win the same currency amount on a 5-of-5 win? In other words, are you saying that the 5c bettor wins 20x the number of credits that the $1 bettor would have won?

Maybe a better way of saying it would be this. They both win the same amount of money on a 5-of-5 win, but the 5c bettor is is getting paid 20X more in relation to the bet. Say the 5-of-5 meter is at $100 when it hits. The $1 bettor gets paid 100 for 1. The 5c bettor bets paid 2000 for 1.

Are you sure the 5c bettor doesn't win 1/40th of the meter, where a $2 bettor would win all of it?

Quote: MathExtremist

Are you sure the 5c bettor doesn't win 1/40th of the meter, where a $2 bettor would win all of it?

I had to play the game for a few minutes to analyze it. I punched up a 2-spot and played. The meter was low like $8.00. When I hit 3/5 it put 5c in the meter. I jumped the bet up to 10c and the meter stayed the same. When I hit 3/5 it put 10c in the meter. I jumped the bet up to 15c and the meter stayed the same. When I hit 3/5 it put 15c in the meter.

Was this in Deadwood or the video lottery casinos?

Edit: I see you answered that. When I lived there SD Video Lottery machines could not return more than 92% theo on any wager.

The person I knew that worked for the big distributor said the machines could be pull tabs and some were. One exception was their crappy Game Kings.

I have no idea about this particular machine, but you may want to make sure it is actually using an RNG and not random award generator based on a predetermined hold. It sounds like this device wouldn't be legal under how I understand the law. They did change a few things after I left, like adding some slot games, so maybe they changed the max return as well.

I would bet the theoretical doesn't take into account the bonus based on the bet. Meaning if the bet stayed one nickel:) or one dollar, it would still be negative expectation based on the frequencies. A short term bonus arbitrage from bet levels doesn't affect the long term. Maybe Las Vegas terms don't allow this type of machine but VLT/NA standards definitely do. The bonus is almost certainly added to the 5/5 trigger, which would be multiplied by the bet making the return bet proportional.

Edit: Just noticed the 5/5 isn't multiplied by the bet, but the 2/2 is. Doesn't matter as long as the pot is added and it begins at zero.

Quote: Pokeraddict

Was this in Deadwood or the video lottery casinos?

Edit: I see you answered that. When I lived there SD Video Lottery machines could not return more than 92% theo on any wager.

The person I knew that worked for the big distributor said the machines could be pull tabs and some were. One exception was their crappy Game Kings.

I have no idea about this particular machine, but you may want to make sure it is actually using an RNG and not random award generator based on a predetermined hold. It sounds like this device wouldn't be legal under how I understand the law. They did change a few things after I left, like adding some slot games, so maybe they changed the max return as well.

I always do my homework. From what I've read online the South Dakota video lottery terminals are random and allow progressive meters that cannot be arbitrarily reset. The payback must be between 80 and 92%. But that's overall payback. That doesn't mean an exploitable short term situation cannot develop. I exploit plenty of games that have overall returns at 92% or less. All you need is strong progressive meters like the game I analyzed here.

An observation of the South Dakota Video Lottery scene. Only maybe 15% of the machines are modern. The rest are old antiquated VLT's. These machines and the bars they are in are private businesses. Most of the bars are run down dives. I think the lack of investment in modern equipment can be attributed to the high tax rate on the gambling win. The state takes half the frickin' earn.

I just wanted to make sure you had checked it out. A rep from a distributor stated that the machines were not required to be random so I was just passing that on. I hardly played them since the games are all awful.

The old VLTs have a potential vulture opportunity, although its EV is probably small. There is a game called Bonus Poker. It is not the IGT BP game. If a player gets a pair of 4's or 9's the wager goes into a progressive. The 4's must hit by 100 quarters and can hit any time after 20, while the 9's must hit by 500 quarters and may hit any time after 100.

The release of this jackpot, as I understood it, was not random. It was based on the recent hold of the game and if the hold was not high enough it would run to the max before hitting. From my experience vulturing it, I tend to agree.

As for the tax, the state gets half, but the bars are usually in 50/50 splits with the distributor as the bars and lottery casinos do not usually own their machines. This means the people that own the machines only get about 25%, or even less in busy locations.

So I've put this new machine and my analysis of ones of its games, Battlesship Keno, up here on WoV. I figure sooner or later someone (or maybe several people) from this forum is going to encounter some of these machines. And, ultimately, they are going to be able to tell if my analysis was correct.

There is another keno game on the machine called Pop & Win. Explaining this game will probably take me an hour or so. I don't think I have time this morning. I'll try to put it up tonight.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Mickey. A lot of it was over my head but I read it a few times trying to learn. Slots are still foreign.
I'm in canada, so I will definitely look for this game,I'll let you know if I find it.

Wow so many new guys in Canada looking for slot and VP AP opportunities nowadays and they are all new to AP. Whats up with that?

Quote: mickeycrimm

There is another keno game on the machine called Pop & Win. Explaining this game will probably take me an hour or so. I don't think I have time this morning. I'll try to put it up tonight.

Okay, so there is another exploitable game on the Blast called Pop & Win. I didn't fully analyze the game, I just snapped off a meter and left. Its a balloon themed game. You can play from two to ten spots. This game was just like the Battleship game, you could bet from one nickel up to $2 per game. So I just bet one nickel per game.

I'm gonna use rounded numbers for simplicity.

I played the 2-spot which paid 9 for 1. So the base game was 54%.

The keno balls are color coded: 20 are red, 20 are blue, 20 are yellow, 20 are green.

There are 4 progressive meters in the game. These were the numbers when I sat down:

Red Meter.............$2.40
Blue Meter...........$29.00
Yellow Meter.........$8.95
Green Meter........$11.35

When the color of the first ball out of the tank and the 20th ball out of the tank matched it put one nickel into the corresponding meter. If the first ball was red and the last ball was red it put one nickel into the red meter. Same thing for the other colors. After I confirmed this I jumped the bet level up to ten cents. The meters stayed the same. When the first and last balls matched colors it put ten cents into the corresponding meter. This confirmed to me that the game was highly exploitable. People betting 50 cents or $1 will hammer the meters way up then you come in behind them betting just one nickel, snapping the meters off until the game is negative.

The first and last balls will match colors every 4.1579 games. So, in effect, the progressive meters represent 24% of the payback of the game, or 6% each. Strong, Strong, Strong.

Every time you hit the start button the machine make three picks that are not in your set of numbers.
Whenever that 3-spot is hit you go into the bonus round.
Four tiles appear. Behind each tile is a color. You get to pick a tile.

If Red is behind the tile you picked you are automatically awarded the money in the red meter. Since the frequency of the 3-spot is 72 and your chances of picking the red tile is 1 in 4, then the cycle for the red meter is 288 games.

If blue is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 10 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the blue meter. Since the 3-spot frequency is 72 and your chances of picking the blue tile and 1 in 4, and you have a 50% chance of catching the jackpot, then the blue meter cycle is 576.

If yellow is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 8 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the yellow meter. Since the 3-spot frequency is 72, your chances of picking the yellow tile is 1 in 4 and you have a 40% chance of hitting the jackpot then the yellow meter cycle is 720.

If green is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 5 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the green meter. 72 X 4 X 4 puts the cycle at 1152.

On this play the blue meter, at $29, was my objective. And you can bet that whoever drove that meter that high was not betting just one nickel at a time. No, they were betting much more than that. I hit the red meter, then hit the blue meter, then cashed out and left.

I didn't check the other spots for payback but next time around I will. But my general rule on plays like this is to play as few numbers, 2-spot or 3-spot, as possible because it is so easy to capture all of the value.

Strategizing the Game:

If you find the red meter at $6.60 then you would have a 6% (meter) edge plus freerolling the other meters.

If you find the blue meter at $13.25 then you would have a 6% edge plus freerolling the yellow and green meters, plus you are expected to hit the red meter twice in 576 games.

If you find the yellow meter at $16.55 then you would have a 6% edge plus freerolling the green meter, plius you are expected to hit the red meter 2.5 times and the blue meter 1.2 times in 720 games.

If you find the green meter at $26 then you would have a 6% edge plus you are expected to hit the red meter 3.9 times, the blue meter 1.9 times, and the yellow meter 1.6 times in 1125 games.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Okay, so there is another exploitable game on the Blast called Pop & Win. I didn't fully analyze the game, I just snapped off a meter and left. Its a balloon themed game. You can play from two to ten spots. This game was just like the Battleship game, you could bet from one nickel up to $2 per game. So I just bet one nickel per game.

I'm gonna use rounded numbers for simplicity.

I played the 2-spot which paid 9 for 1. So the base game was 54%.

The keno balls are color coded: 20 are red, 20 are blue, 20 are yellow, 20 are green.

There are 4 progressive meters in the game. These were the numbers when I sat down:

Red Meter.............$2.40
Blue Meter...........$29.00
Yellow Meter.........$8.95
Green Meter........$11.35

When the color of the first ball out of the tank and the 20th ball out of the tank matched it put one nickel into the corresponding meter. If the first ball was red and the last ball was red it put one nickel into the red meter. Same thing for the other colors. After I confirmed this I jumped the bet level up to ten cents. The meters stayed the same. When the first and last balls matched colors it put ten cents into the corresponding meter. This confirmed to me that the game was highly exploitable. People betting 50 cents or $1 will hammer the meters way up then you come in behind them betting just one nickel, snapping the meters off until the game is negative.

The first and last balls will match colors every 4.1579 games. So, in effect, the progressive meters represent 24% of the payback of the game, or 6% each. Strong, Strong, Strong.

Every time you hit the start button the machine make three picks that are not in your set of numbers.
Whenever that 3-spot is hit you go into the bonus round.
Four tiles appear. Behind each tile is a color. You get to pick a tile.

If Red is behind the tile you picked you are automatically awarded the money in the red meter. Since the frequency of the 3-spot is 72 and your chances of picking the red tile is 1 in 4, then the cycle for the red meter is 288 games.

If blue is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 10 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the blue meter. Since the 3-spot frequency is 72 and your chances of picking the blue tile and 1 in 4, and you have a 50% chance of catching the jackpot, then the blue meter cycle is 576.

If yellow is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 8 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the yellow meter. Since the 3-spot frequency is 72, your chances of picking the yellow tile is 1 in 4 and you have a 40% chance of hitting the jackpot then the yellow meter cycle is 720.

If green is behind the tile you picked then 20 balloons appear. You get to pick 5 of them. If one of them says "Jackpot" you are awarded the money in the green meter. 72 X 4 X 4 puts the cycle at 1152.

On this play the blue meter, at $29, was my objective. And you can bet that whoever drove that meter that high was not betting just one nickel at a time. No, they were betting much more than that. I hit the red meter, then hit the blue meter, then cashed out and left.

I didn't check the other spots for payback but next time around I will. But my general rule on plays like this is to play as few numbers, 2-spot or 3-spot, as possible because it is so easy to capture all of the value.

Strategizing the Game:

If you find the red meter at $6.60 then you would have a 6% (meter) edge plus freerolling the other meters.

If you find the blue meter at $13.25 then you would have a 6% edge plus freerolling the yellow and green meters, plus you are expected to hit the red meter twice in 576 games.

If you find the yellow meter at $16.55 then you would have a 6% edge plus freerolling the green meter, plius you are expected to hit the red meter 2.5 times and the blue meter 1.2 times in 720 games.

If you find the green meter at $26 then you would have a 6% edge plus you are expected to hit the red meter 3.9 times, the blue meter 1.9 times, and the yellow meter 1.6 times in 1125 games.

One of the beauties of a play like this will be taught in a future course called:

Penciiling the IRS 101

You really find a lot of progressive Keno opportunities. I have still yet to ever see a progressive Keno machine. The ones I see (in CA and Vegas) are all fixed-payout.

I do find the slot machines that you talk about though. Some great opportunities there! Also some slot play on the record is a good thing...

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You really find a lot of progressive Keno opportunities. I have still yet to ever see a progressive Keno machine. The ones I see (in CA and Vegas) are all fixed-payout.

I do find the slot machines that you talk about though. Some great opportunities there! Also some slot play on the record is a good thing...

If you are in California I believe there are some reservation machines with Pot of Gold machines. These generally have 7+ spot progressives. Taverns in Las Vegas will sometimes have a Game King six-spot progressive.

You would think these types of things would be always low because people would always play them too low because they seem too easy to win.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

You would think these types of things would be always low because people would always play them too low because they seem too easy to win.

I'm not sure the degens that play SD lottery machines are capable of that type of thinking. When I lived there I watched people dump fortunes into these 90% return machines $2 at a time for hours. The poker games probably hold 5% more than they should cause of all the poor plays made like holding a bare ace in deuces wild type stuff.

I suspect you would find these types of plays in Rapid City and Sioux Falls. I doubt there are too many of the newer machines in the rural areas. Last time I was up there the truck stops still had mostly VLTs.

Quote: Pokeraddict

If you are in California I believe there are some reservation machines with Pot of Gold machines. These generally have 7+ spot progressives. Taverns in Las Vegas will sometimes have a Game King six-spot progressive.

Hmm... I will take a look for these pot of gold machines. What do they look like?

Most of the Keno that I see is on Game King machines. They have the Cleopatra Keno and that annoying game with the dinosaurs or whatever (annoying because it is loud and distracts me from playing VP).

Quote: Pokeraddict

I'm not sure the degens that play SD lottery machines are capable of that type of thinking. When I lived there I watched people dump fortunes into these 90% return machines $2 at a time for hours. The poker games probably hold 5% more than they should cause of all the poor plays made like holding a bare ace in deuces wild type stuff.

lol.. I was watching someone play deuces wild. She got 2 deuces and spent a REALLY long time trying to decide whether to hold a king or a queen with the deuces. Can't throw away 3 of a kind after all!

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Hmm... I will take a look for these pot of gold machines. What do they look like?

http://www.game-intl.com/_src/sc2045/POG20METAL20CABINET.jpg

That is a screen shot of the old versions.

http://www.vision-gaming.com/keno.html

That is what the newer machine consoles look like.

VPFree2 shows these machines at San Manuel in California. I have an old one in my house and the keno can be set as a progressive of up to 1%.

I've seen them but never played them. They're history where I saw them now.

You guys are in the wrong market. There is no way in hell I would live in your market. I would never live where a gambler cant't make it.

I think I've seen something that looks really similar to those units at Pala in SoCal, except the signage says 'Pala Gold'. I'll take a closer look next time I'm down there and report back. (If I remember...)

Quote: Pokeraddict

http://www.game-intl.com/_src/sc2045/POG20METAL20CABINET.jpg

That is a screen shot of the old versions.

http://www.vision-gaming.com/keno.html

That is what the newer machine consoles look like.

VPFree2 shows these machines at San Manuel in California. I have an old one in my house and the keno can be set as a progressive of up to 1%.

Thanks for the links. There is definitely nothing like that an any of the places I've played.

Nice work!

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You really find a lot of progressive Keno opportunities. I have still yet to ever see a progressive Keno machine. The ones I see (in CA and Vegas) are all fixed-payout.

I do find the slot machines that you talk about though. Some great opportunities there! Also some slot play on the record is a good thing...

Viejas casino (tribal) east of San Diego has Pot o' Gold machines with progressive jackpots for Keno and vp. I've seen jackpots over $150,000. There are regulars that hit the machines hard when the jackpots on a bank of machines gets high. I've watched people play $10 per hand/game/spin whatever you call it in Keno. The losses certainly add up quickly unless you hit the jackpot!

On May 30th someone hit a Superball Keno jackpot for $143,460

Quote: PBguy

Viejas casino (tribal) east of San Diego has Pot o' Gold machines with progressive jackpots for Keno and vp. I've seen jackpots over $150,000. There are regulars that hit the machines hard when the jackpots on a bank of machines gets high. I've watched people play $10 per hand/game/spin whatever you call it in Keno. The losses certainly add up quickly unless you hit the jackpot!

On May 30th someone hit a Superball Keno jackpot for $143,460

You're bucking some long odds here. The frequency for 9/10 is 164,000 and 10/10 is 8.9 Million.
Do you know what the minimum bet is to qualify for this progressive.
Are there any other progressives on this machine, like 7-spot, 6-spot, 5-spot?

Pot 0 Gold machines also have a lotto like game where you pick numbers 0-9 and match the numbers in various ways, you can play four cards. They are very fun compared to bingo and keno. I do enjoy them, fun and mindless.

I played them for a short time when they had/have them in Florida all over the place with really great meter movement they got up really high over 50k and the hourly can be really good in the hundreds per hr. One guy was getting full expense paid and $50 bucks and hr. You could get a fair amount of plays.



A few well known gamblers were doing well.

Problems:

Once you got on You could not leave, Guys would be practically sleeping on the machines while spinning (some spinning with their heads)

Huge bankroll needed If you ran bad then Good game.

Smokiest places you will ever see.

waiting lists to get on them once they hit like 35k. You had to stand in line and be on the list when they got high enough at some places.

lots of heat from casino and others.

Casinos hated anyone from Vegas or any white guy that looked like they were from Vegas. White guys really stood out when targeting them machines.

Machines only took 20's and under.

Drug dealers used the machines to wash and launder money. Great way to get ride of small drug bills and have an advantage and show where you got your money.

Local Drug teams didn't like competition, occasional violence if they thought you were a team.

"supposedly"One person was threatened robbed and beaten for over 50k.

Other then all that is was a good play.