mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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May 20th, 2014 at 7:10:08 PM permalink
While in South Dakota I came across a new machine. I did some googling on the manufacturer. This new machine is called THE BLAST and is made by Techlink Entertainment out of Nova Scotia. Evidently, they are licensed in Canada and Europe. And, so far, they are licensed in the South Dakota Lottery , Ohio Lottery , and West Virginia Lottery.

I only saw a few of these machines so it's not like they are everywhere yet. They have poker, keno and line games. So I went through the games looking for anything exploitable. I found a few games with potential and even got a couple of small plays on one of the games. The game I will describe is called Battleship Keno.

1. It comes in either nickels (1 to 40 coins) or quarters (1 to 8 coins).
2. You can play anywhere from 2 to 10 spots. I'll use the 2-spot for the example.
3. The game has a progressive meter....but it is not conventional.
4. You are playing two games at once.

First game:

The 2-spot payscale is:

.......... PAY.......FREQ.........CONTRIBUTION
1/2.......1..........2.63.............37.9747%
2/2.......7........16.63.............42.08866%

The game returns 80.0833%.

Second Game:

When you punch your numbers in, make your bet, then hit the start button the machine picks 5 random numbers that are not part of your group. They are represented by battleship symbols.

A. If 3 battleship symbols are hit during the game it will place 1 bet into the progressive meter.
B. If 4 battleship symbols are hit during the game it will place 2 bets into the progressive meter.
C. If all 5 battleship symbols are hit during the game you are awarded the progressive meter.

The numbers involved on this 5-spot are

3/5 frequency is 11.91
4/5 frequency is 82.70
5/5 frequency is 1550.57

So one bet goes into the meter every 11.91 games and two bets go into the meter every 82.7 games. This is equivalent to a 10.81% progressive meter.

Normally on a game like this an AP would figure "the cost" (the average cost to run one cycle) by multiplying the frequency of the 5-spot by the bet and the drop. Say the bet was $1 a game

1550.57 X $1 X 20% = $310.11

So if you found a meter on $310.11 you would have a 10.81% advantage (the meter rise being your advantage).

But there is one little rule in this game....actually....it's a VERY BIG RULE.

It doesn't matter if you are betting one coin, ten coins, twenty coins, or fourty coins, you QUALIFY FOR THE METER.

So if you were to find this game with $310.11 in the meter all you have to do is bet one nickel at a time until you hit the 5-spot. The cost would look like this:

1550.57 X 5 cents X 20% = $15.51

With the meter running at 10.81% your expectation would be to put $8.38 in the meter per cycle. So your average profit on this play would be $303.

The game plays at 20 GPM. So your average seat time (1550.57/20) would be about 80 minutes. A pretty nice hourly rate.

But you wouldn't have to wait on numbers nearly that big. Here's a typical scenario:

Player A plays 700 games betting $1 a game, doesn't hit the solid five, then takes a walk. The expectation is he would put about $76 in the meter. You come in behind betting one nickel per game. Your expectation is to put $8.38 in the meter on your way to hitting the solid five. Your cost is $15.51. Your expectation would be an average $69 win for about 80 minutes work.

This game has the potential for huge hourly rates with no downside risk.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 20th, 2014 at 7:20:20 PM permalink
Sounds like how all games should be setup. Let people learn to have and develop a gambling problem on their own instead of forcing the issue with required max bets.
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MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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May 20th, 2014 at 7:20:20 PM permalink
Are you saying that a 5c bettor and a $1 bettor win the same currency amount on a 5-of-5 win? In other words, are you saying that the 5c bettor wins 20x the number of credits that the $1 bettor would have won?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 20th, 2014 at 7:24:24 PM permalink
This game reminds me of a version of Frost and Fire by Spielo with the sunshine pot working in a similar way. I'm guessing the pots begin at zero because it's the only way a game like this can exist and still be bet proportional by design.
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mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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May 20th, 2014 at 7:56:19 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Are you saying that a 5c bettor and a $1 bettor win the same currency amount on a 5-of-5 win? In other words, are you saying that the 5c bettor wins 20x the number of credits that the $1 bettor would have won?



Yes, that's it exactly. There is only one meter on the game. And it doesn't matter if you are betting one nickel or $2, you qualify for the meter. And they are stand alone progressives.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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May 20th, 2014 at 8:00:47 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Are you saying that a 5c bettor and a $1 bettor win the same currency amount on a 5-of-5 win? In other words, are you saying that the 5c bettor wins 20x the number of credits that the $1 bettor would have won?



Maybe a better way of saying it would be this. They both win the same amount of money on a 5-of-5 win, but the 5c bettor is is getting paid 20X more in relation to the bet. Say the 5-of-5 meter is at $100 when it hits. The $1 bettor gets paid 100 for 1. The 5c bettor bets paid 2000 for 1.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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May 20th, 2014 at 8:07:52 PM permalink
Are you sure the 5c bettor doesn't win 1/40th of the meter, where a $2 bettor would win all of it?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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May 20th, 2014 at 8:19:29 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Are you sure the 5c bettor doesn't win 1/40th of the meter, where a $2 bettor would win all of it?



I had to play the game for a few minutes to analyze it. I punched up a 2-spot and played. The meter was low like $8.00. When I hit 3/5 it put 5c in the meter. I jumped the bet up to 10c and the meter stayed the same. When I hit 3/5 it put 10c in the meter. I jumped the bet up to 15c and the meter stayed the same. When I hit 3/5 it put 15c in the meter.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Pokeraddict
Pokeraddict
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May 20th, 2014 at 8:19:30 PM permalink
Was this in Deadwood or the video lottery casinos?

Edit: I see you answered that. When I lived there SD Video Lottery machines could not return more than 92% theo on any wager.

The person I knew that worked for the big distributor said the machines could be pull tabs and some were. One exception was their crappy Game Kings.

I have no idea about this particular machine, but you may want to make sure it is actually using an RNG and not random award generator based on a predetermined hold. It sounds like this device wouldn't be legal under how I understand the law. They did change a few things after I left, like adding some slot games, so maybe they changed the max return as well.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 20th, 2014 at 8:48:18 PM permalink
I would bet the theoretical doesn't take into account the bonus based on the bet. Meaning if the bet stayed one nickel:) or one dollar, it would still be negative expectation based on the frequencies. A short term bonus arbitrage from bet levels doesn't affect the long term. Maybe Las Vegas terms don't allow this type of machine but VLT/NA standards definitely do. The bonus is almost certainly added to the 5/5 trigger, which would be multiplied by the bet making the return bet proportional.

Edit: Just noticed the 5/5 isn't multiplied by the bet, but the 2/2 is. Doesn't matter as long as the pot is added and it begins at zero.
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