Friend taken for 1.5k in shady forced martingale ball game
January 26th, 2014 at 8:06:00 AM
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This liquidation sale we went to yesterday (in SC) had a game at the back where you paid $5 to pull out a floating ping pong ball and win tickets, and 100 tickets got you a prize... Except hitting "bonus" doubled the stakes and increased the prize count. At the end he was paying $160 per bet for about $8k retail in prizes. And this is in South Carolina. My friend tests at +3SD but has a slight impulse control problem. Given a bizarrely good early run, most of the late bets were +EV _IF_ the game was fair.
But the game isn't close to a bingo loophole and obviously an illegal lottery, but they will probably claim that it's a skill game since you pick the ball yourself and will be off to their next destination by tomorrow, and the liquidation sales seem to be low key, so who knows where that will be. I actually wondered if their take could be high enough that the entire liquidation sale is a cover.
If I thought the game was fair, I might still just walk away, but friend's early pulls vs late pulls diverged soooo heavily ( I know, I know, sample size) and the whole things just looks quite shady. I suspect it's outright rigged, but I have no idea how to proceed. They even have a cop standing off to the side the entire time ?!?!
There are complaints on ripoff.com, some can be shrugged off to innumeracy, but one complaint said a raid in texas turned up a dozen fake id's and the operator had multiple felony warrents out. http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/larry-johnson/jacksonville-florida-32225/larry-johnson-liquidation-bingo-bingo-game-that-is-fixed-to-not-win-jacksonville-florida-915856
I'm tempted to go saying, "Chance, Prize, Consideration", and see if they offer a (partial) refund. If I can't play poker online, well...
comments?
But the game isn't close to a bingo loophole and obviously an illegal lottery, but they will probably claim that it's a skill game since you pick the ball yourself and will be off to their next destination by tomorrow, and the liquidation sales seem to be low key, so who knows where that will be. I actually wondered if their take could be high enough that the entire liquidation sale is a cover.
If I thought the game was fair, I might still just walk away, but friend's early pulls vs late pulls diverged soooo heavily ( I know, I know, sample size) and the whole things just looks quite shady. I suspect it's outright rigged, but I have no idea how to proceed. They even have a cop standing off to the side the entire time ?!?!
There are complaints on ripoff.com, some can be shrugged off to innumeracy, but one complaint said a raid in texas turned up a dozen fake id's and the operator had multiple felony warrents out. http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/larry-johnson/jacksonville-florida-32225/larry-johnson-liquidation-bingo-bingo-game-that-is-fixed-to-not-win-jacksonville-florida-915856
I'm tempted to go saying, "Chance, Prize, Consideration", and see if they offer a (partial) refund. If I can't play poker online, well...
comments?
January 26th, 2014 at 8:20:56 AM
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"Had a game in the back" - first clue. +3SD or not, your friend is a fool.
January 26th, 2014 at 8:34:13 AM
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Quote: Sabretom2"Had a game in the back" - first clue. +3SD or not, your friend is a fool.
Once he started playing, I loaned him money because I thought after the initial bad bets, he had good bets, so I'm a fool too.
Yo, mods, is this a personal insult, or does the person have to be a member?
January 26th, 2014 at 8:41:45 AM
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Quote: socksOnce he started playing, I loaned him money because I thought after the initial bad bets, he had good bets, so I'm a fool too.
Yo, mods, is this a personal insult, or does the person have to be a member?
Truth is an absolute defense. Your friend is a fool.
January 26th, 2014 at 8:50:43 AM
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Quote: sabreTruth is an absolute defense. Your friend is a fool.
Perhaps ACTED foolishly in this case, but the sample size does not support the categorical label of fool :-)
You dont bring a bone saw to a negotiation. - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
January 26th, 2014 at 9:17:23 AM
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Sounds like something similar to the Razzle Dazzle scam:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaIZl0H2yNE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaIZl0H2yNE
Vote for Nobody 2020!
January 26th, 2014 at 10:00:00 AM
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This is the age-old carnival scam "the Razzle."
Any time a game is played on a point-system and forces you to increase your bet (and keep playing or else you lose your points), you can be pretty sure it is a variant of the Razzle. The key to the Razzle is that the operator cheats when he wants you to score points, to hook you in. When he wants you to score nothing, he counts the game fairly, because it's rigged against you anyway.
Any time a game is played on a point-system and forces you to increase your bet (and keep playing or else you lose your points), you can be pretty sure it is a variant of the Razzle. The key to the Razzle is that the operator cheats when he wants you to score points, to hook you in. When he wants you to score nothing, he counts the game fairly, because it's rigged against you anyway.
January 26th, 2014 at 10:16:24 AM
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Forgive my ignorance, but I read that as plus 3 Standard Deviations. But I have no idea what that means.Quote: socksMy friend tests at +3SD but has a slight impulse control problem.
Fascinating video. It looked like a scam from the word "Go", but fascinating.Quote: bigfoot66Sounds like something similar to the Razzle Dazzle scam:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaIZl0H2yNE
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
January 26th, 2014 at 10:33:28 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearForgive my ignorance, but I read that as plus 3 Standard Deviations. But I have no idea what that means.
Three standard deviations above the mean in an IQ test
January 26th, 2014 at 11:02:18 AM
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And 3 standard deviations below the mean in a common sense test.
January 26th, 2014 at 11:05:18 AM
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Quote: socksFriend taken for 1.5k in shady forced martingale ball game
According to how you have titled this, it would seem you drew the proper conclusion yourself. Except it seems to be *you* who has been 'taken'?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell! She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 26th, 2014 at 11:11:32 AM
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Of course its rigged. No one ever wins.
There are different attractions between the cups and the fish hook. Valuable ping pong balls come near the fish hook, others don't ... so every ball you fish out is valuable to the operator in increasing your fee but denying you a prize. And "top shelf prize" includes the small bundle of worthless junk next to the expensive TVs.
Your friend was NOT "taken" ... he GAVE them his money.
There are different attractions between the cups and the fish hook. Valuable ping pong balls come near the fish hook, others don't ... so every ball you fish out is valuable to the operator in increasing your fee but denying you a prize. And "top shelf prize" includes the small bundle of worthless junk next to the expensive TVs.
Your friend was NOT "taken" ... he GAVE them his money.
January 26th, 2014 at 11:18:57 AM
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If you like reading instead of videos:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Razzle_%28game%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Razzle_%28game%29
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
January 26th, 2014 at 12:01:47 PM
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Quote: odiousgambitAccording to how you have titled this, it would seem you drew the proper conclusion yourself. Except it seems to be *you* who has been 'taken'?
I quickly shrugged and declined when I saw the game without considering the math. Maybe not a good gamblers instinct to not even consider a game in front of you, but I'd come for the potential of a cheap GPU at the liquidation sale (I've been working on a poker-like algorithm that's easy to convert, but don't have much in the way of hardware myself)
My friend has a good job and I'll get the money back. I'm sure he's feeling sucker punched.
fwiw, we decided not to just drop it.
January 26th, 2014 at 12:04:58 PM
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Quote: FleaStiff...Your friend was NOT "taken" ... he GAVE them his money.
I should have titled it, "Friend may have got taken". If the game was a straight con, with outcomes not ground in anything mathematical, I consider that taken. If it was an illegal, but essentially, mathematically, fair game, then I shouldn't say "taken". Even in that case, I'd like to shut the people down, mostly just because I'm still bitter over putting a lot of effort into learning SnG's for online poker, and having that taken just as I was getting good. What's good for the goose...
January 26th, 2014 at 12:06:31 PM
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Quote: dwheatleyIf you like reading instead of videos:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Razzle_%28game%29
Interesting, It has a name. Thanks.
edit: after glancing over Razzle, this game was a bit different. Sortof like Razzle on crack, in a way, given the forced bet doubling.
January 26th, 2014 at 12:28:33 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearForgive my ignorance, but I read that as plus 3 Standard Deviations. But I have no idea what that means.
Fascinating video. It looked like a scam from the word "Go", but fascinating.
Great watching that stuff work. I wonder if the mark got his money back as part of compensation for being on the show?
A falling knife has no handle.
January 26th, 2014 at 12:34:04 PM
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Briefly, the specifics, if it was, by chance, fair (because it's an interesting design even when played fair):
72 space numbered card w/26 spaces dedicated to tickets (from 1-100 tickets), and other space yielding other prizes/free pulls/ ect...
We were eventually offered a claim of 350 ping pong ball in the airstream. We couldn't verify this, but it was believable.
Also claimed, at least one of each ball was in the mix.
So a $5 lvl1 bet has a max return of an $800 retail TV (60" razor) since presumably there is one 100 point ball. If there were 2 balls at 100, it's probably not profitable.
Once you get to the mid-high 90's (where he was), and have (min) 21 winning balls(1's weren't enough), you have a 6% of winning 10x TV's @ the $160 bet level. So, to walk away at that point appears to be giving up 100+% return on a $160 bet. I was very close to taking another $1k back in myself (they give you a placeholder card), and playing it out.
Also, of note, he outright gave us a free ball at one point, at the $160 lvl.
edit: an important part of the game are the spaces are the spaces marked "bonus" which takes you to the next bet level. The cost doubles and the prizes increase by somewhat less.
72 space numbered card w/26 spaces dedicated to tickets (from 1-100 tickets), and other space yielding other prizes/free pulls/ ect...
We were eventually offered a claim of 350 ping pong ball in the airstream. We couldn't verify this, but it was believable.
Also claimed, at least one of each ball was in the mix.
So a $5 lvl1 bet has a max return of an $800 retail TV (60" razor) since presumably there is one 100 point ball. If there were 2 balls at 100, it's probably not profitable.
Once you get to the mid-high 90's (where he was), and have (min) 21 winning balls(1's weren't enough), you have a 6% of winning 10x TV's @ the $160 bet level. So, to walk away at that point appears to be giving up 100+% return on a $160 bet. I was very close to taking another $1k back in myself (they give you a placeholder card), and playing it out.
Also, of note, he outright gave us a free ball at one point, at the $160 lvl.
edit: an important part of the game are the spaces are the spaces marked "bonus" which takes you to the next bet level. The cost doubles and the prizes increase by somewhat less.
January 26th, 2014 at 12:36:39 PM
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There's an age old term among "carnies" called Ten Pointing... Very similar to what this video shows. Although you actually have the mark martingale and offer him increasing $ on top of the "big prize."
Worked really good on the bucket game and rope ladder, which have adjustable settings.
I only spent 3 weeks working on the road when I needed the money after my student loan ran low. Made 1000+ a week doing this but the lifestyle was absolutely horrible on top of always being in risk of getting jumped by other carnies.
Shady world the carnival...
Worked really good on the bucket game and rope ladder, which have adjustable settings.
I only spent 3 weeks working on the road when I needed the money after my student loan ran low. Made 1000+ a week doing this but the lifestyle was absolutely horrible on top of always being in risk of getting jumped by other carnies.
Shady world the carnival...
~R
January 26th, 2014 at 12:44:21 PM
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Gee, I don't know. Looking back on things, you do feel foolish ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 26th, 2014 at 12:44:43 PM
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Quote: Rorry...I only spent 3 weeks working on the road when I needed the money after my student loan ran low. Made 1000+ a week doing this but the lifestyle was absolutely horrible on top of always being in risk of getting jumped by other carnies.
Shady world the carnival...
The younger guy was wearing a cast...
January 26th, 2014 at 12:47:49 PM
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Quote: BleedingChipsSlowlyPerhaps ACTED foolishly in this case, but the sample size does not support the categorical label of fool :-)
" A fool and his money are soon parted. "
Sample size does not apply. It says FOOL, not fools.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 26th, 2014 at 12:57:17 PM
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Quote: BuzzardGee, I don't know. Looking back on things, you do feel foolish ?
um, so, I feel kindof bad I didn't try harder to pull my friend away in case something was up. He was in about 7-800 when the guy offered the return ticket, and I said, a couple of times, "lets get lunch, catch our breath, maybe we've made a mistake about the edge". And my on-the-fly numbers had been off, but the conclusion would've been the same. Taking a lunch break may or may not have led to a different outcome.
But he was almost in a trance. I think there was a gulf between his mind at that moment and anything that's ever happened in my mind. And I was fairly confident he had an edge so I shrugged and said "ok", or "keep going". I mean, I lost $5k in a short handed 40/80 game once, so it's not like I'm staring at a huge number wrt gambling.
So, yeah, I feel ok about my instincts, as I, personally would not have played the first bet, and I tried to interrupt the game, but I feel a bit bad about my lack of personal understanding for not pressing the issue. I just figured he knew what he was doing, but looking back, there something trancelike about his face.
January 26th, 2014 at 1:07:50 PM
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Great movie with George C Scott of all people, Flim-Flam Man
Here is the pigeon drop with Slim Pickens as the pigeon.
Here is the pigeon drop with Slim Pickens as the pigeon.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 26th, 2014 at 1:41:37 PM
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You and your friend got hustled, plain and simple.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
January 26th, 2014 at 1:54:07 PM
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i remember when i was little my dad won me a giant stuffed tiger playing that rigged basketball game. i asked him if he remembered that and how many attempts it took. he said only 5-6. im wondering if it was more than that and hes just not willing to admit it. but he used to play college basketball so it could be true. that giant stuffed tiger gave me nightmares for years though lol.
January 26th, 2014 at 6:39:58 PM
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Quote: BuzzardGreat movie with George C Scott of all people, Flim-Flam Man
Here is the pigeon drop with Slim Pickens as the pigeon.
I am so dumb http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hEm6LiU3rw
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 26th, 2014 at 7:24:51 PM
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Quote: socksThis liquidation sale we went to yesterday...
If it's a roving one, then it's probably sketchy, selling pigs in a poke. Sad to say I got caught with one of those as a student. Luckily for me, I worked out after the first two 'Five Pound bargain' and 'ten pound baragin' was junk, and the thirty pound bag that 'might be a drill' would be more low quality junk. Shame on me for being fooled twice though.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
February 4th, 2014 at 5:51:28 AM
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My cousin Joe and I got suckered by the razzle when we were just 18 years old at the Southeast Mississippi Livestock Show. We only had $20, if we would have had more we would have lost that too. We went and tried to borrow some money from my uncle to go back and play but he told us we got suckered. Those carnivals moved through every little town in the south in those days. There's no telling the amount of money they made from the razzle games.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
February 4th, 2014 at 6:01:24 AM
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Why not head to NY City and make it all back from a guy with a little fold up table on the street with 3 cards. Looks like you can find an edge in that game and make a fortune.
February 4th, 2014 at 7:29:14 AM
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February 4th, 2014 at 7:42:36 AM
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You are Joking right?Quote: BozWhy not head to NY City and make it all back from a guy with a little fold up table on the street with 3 cards. Looks like you can find an edge in that game and make a fortune.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
February 4th, 2014 at 7:55:06 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfYou are Joking right?
I shocked you even had to ask!
February 4th, 2014 at 8:48:41 AM
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Quote: BozWhy not head to NY City and make it all back from a guy with a little fold up table on the street with 3 cards. Looks like you can find an edge in that game and make a fortune.
When I was in my late teens I was in NYC with a friend. He blew all his money on a 3 card monte game on a card table in the street and all my money I lent him as well. We went back to the parking garage broke. I had some bags in the car and I put them over the front and back license plates, went flying down the circular drive gaining speed as I went, ready to bust through the flimsy gate and out into the street and away. Just as I came into the straightaway before the cashier booth on the ground floor doing about 25 mph I stomped the gas, looked at the thin gate, and then noticed tire shredders in the ground a few feet after the booth. I jammed on the brakes and screeched to a stop partially sideways in a cloud of smoke right in front of the booth. The guy looked at me, I looked at him, and said, "This nitwit next to me lost all our money at a 3 card monte game around the corner." "The tall, skinny guy with the black coat and black hat with the white band?" he asked. "That's the guy," I said. He took the ticket, wrote void on it, gave it back to me and said, "Here. Now don't ever come back here again, idiot."
