Dween
Dween
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November 27th, 2013 at 6:55:20 AM permalink
The Kentucky Lottery has just introduced a new Keno game, drawing every 5 minutes. Apparently, lots of new installations in restaurants and normally non-lottery locations is the big thing. I checked out their How To Play/Odds page, and ran their numbers through the Wizard's Keno calculator. Looks like the best game is the 2 number ticket, with odds of hitting 1:16.63, and a return of 66.13%.

How does a return of 66.13% compare to other Keno games?
-Dween!
tringlomane
tringlomane
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November 27th, 2013 at 8:40:48 AM permalink
It is terrible and illegal for casino-run keno/video keno games. But for lottery-run games, it is probably about average.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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November 27th, 2013 at 9:09:23 AM permalink
Quote: Dween

How does a return of 66.13% compare to other Keno games?



Awful compared to casino video keno, which returns 90%-94% usually. That is better than lottery tickets, which pay about 50%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
CrystalMath
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November 27th, 2013 at 9:12:58 AM permalink
That's funny; the two spot is usually the worst game.

It sounds like this game is even worse than live keno.
I heart Crystal Math.
Mission146
Mission146
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November 27th, 2013 at 9:29:50 AM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

That's funny; the two spot is usually the worst game.

It sounds like this game is even worse than live keno.



Almost by necessity, Ohio has one, too, that draws every x minutes and the return is not pretty, either.

I'm actually surprised that these games pay as high as 50% (like other lotto games) because there would be some additional bandwidth/server/distribution costs you would have to run something like this that you don't necessarily experience with something like Pick-Three or Powerball because the lotto machines are already in place. I'd have to look, but I think Ohio's may be run on completely separate machines.

There's also broadcasting, in that regard, as many of the bars (and some other locations) will have TV's that display the results.

Here's something crazy about Ohio's game, you can bet up to $10/card, up to 10 combinations on a single card and then have a card that is good for up to 10 drawings, which would be a $1,000 ticket!!!

If you ask me, I say that you have a Keno game that returns in the neighborhood of 95%. My reasoning is that you would make that up on volume, everybody in the bars would be playing it, you could advertise the Hell out of that 95% return. I would say that you would just want to have smaller than typical payouts (given the return) on all except for the least likely result, to reduce volatility, and that way a single $10 bettor can't hit 9/10 balls and virtually negate a crapload of $1 bettors.

Making something like 3/9 and 3/10 1 FOR 1 would help facilitate a high win rate, make a 95% return feasible, and make it easy to reduce a few of the higher pays on less likely results.

I've clearly never played the game. I grabbed one of the cards for it and looked at the pays and immediately said, "Heh, that's cute."
Vultures can't be choosers.
DRich
DRich
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November 27th, 2013 at 9:48:07 AM permalink
Mission, I don't think a Keno game at 95% would stand a chance in the Ohio and Michigan jurisdictions. The game is just too slow. Usually the drawings are every 5 to 10 minutes and the typical customer only plays about $1 per drawing. That is only a 5 cent profit per drawing per player. The reason the casinos can get away with 90%-94% video keno is because the player is playing many games per minute.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
tringlomane
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November 27th, 2013 at 10:00:26 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Mission, I don't think a Keno game at 95% would stand a chance in the Ohio and Michigan jurisdictions. The game is just too slow. Usually the drawings are every 5 to 10 minutes and the typical customer only plays about $1 per drawing. That is only a 5 cent profit per drawing per player. The reason the casinos can get away with 90%-94% video keno is because the player is playing many games per minute.



Yeah live keno usually has garbage payouts too.
Mission146
Mission146
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November 27th, 2013 at 2:47:07 PM permalink
That's true, but you are talking about the entire State with the majority of expense being front-ended at implementation. Perhaps 95% is too generous, but certainly something around 90% would work. The effective amount would be higher anyway, because Ohio residents would be taxed on a win in sufficient amount as to be reported to the State, which I believe to be $500, on a lottery game.

I could just picture a bar on a Sunday with a whole row full of guys with one eye on the game and the other on the Keno broadcast, all playing.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Ibeatyouraces
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November 27th, 2013 at 3:04:27 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
DRich
DRich
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November 27th, 2013 at 3:46:29 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

http://m.michiganlottery.com/club_keno?viewtab=2



Exactly, that game runs every four minutes and has a payback near 65% on the four and five spots.
Living longer does not always infer +EV

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