Poll -- Should the Wizard write about lucrative promotions?
Poll
 | 80 votes (87.91%) | ||
| | 5 votes (5.49%) | ||
| | 6 votes (6.59%) |
91 members have voted
July 7th, 2013 at 6:38:38 PM
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There has been a lot of discussion pro and con about whether I'm to blame for ruining the Revel "You Can't Lose" promotion by analyzing and writing about it. It is argued that some things are too good to tell everybody and are better left to the fortunate ones who find out about such things anyway. Others argue that it is unlikely this small forum could affect something a major casino does and that the free flow of ideas lets everybody on the train.
I know there is a lot of talk about this already in the Revel promotion sounds too good to be true thread, but I'd like to see an actual count of votes. The results of the poll will be considered before the next lucrative promotion bubbles up.
I know there is a lot of talk about this already in the Revel promotion sounds too good to be true thread, but I'd like to see an actual count of votes. The results of the poll will be considered before the next lucrative promotion bubbles up.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 7th, 2013 at 6:44:07 PM
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I certainly hope you're to blame. Just like I hope
the forum is to blame for Ahigh getting banned
from a few casinos. Whats the point of having a
forum like this and making a name for yourself,
which you have done, if people don't listen to you.
You want it to be your fault, just like a critic wants
to be the one that closes a bad Broadway show..
Bovada pays for you having some clout in this business,
keep it up..
the forum is to blame for Ahigh getting banned
from a few casinos. Whats the point of having a
forum like this and making a name for yourself,
which you have done, if people don't listen to you.
You want it to be your fault, just like a critic wants
to be the one that closes a bad Broadway show..
Bovada pays for you having some clout in this business,
keep it up..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 7th, 2013 at 6:46:50 PM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 7th, 2013 at 7:01:33 PM
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This forum is owned and operated by the Wizard--nobody is forcing any of us to use this forum...the Wizard has to earn a living and the more people who come to this forum, the more people see the ads hereon...which, in turn, should translate into more income for the Wizard.
July 7th, 2013 at 7:03:28 PM
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Absolutely you should discuss them. I was very critical of Bob Dancer for having a radio show with loyal listeners, and a column with loyal readers, who kept certain promotions "to himself." When you have a radio show, or website or column, you present yourself as an independent, credible resource and you should act independently and with credibility. It becomes your obligation to your followers.
You do a good job Wizard. Yes, discuss them -- good and bad.
You do a good job Wizard. Yes, discuss them -- good and bad.
July 7th, 2013 at 7:10:59 PM
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Quote: AlanMendelsonAbsolutely you should discuss them. I was very critical of Bob Dancer for having a radio show with loyal listeners, and a column with loyal readers, who kept certain promotions "to himself." When you have a radio show, or website or column, you present yourself as an independent, credible resource and you should act independently and with credibility. It becomes your obligation to your followers.
You do a good job Wizard. Yes, discuss them -- good and bad.
+1
July 7th, 2013 at 7:18:39 PM
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I also say +1, but I refrain from voting for the moment.
I live only 2 hours from Revel, but that's still 2 hours away. As such, I don't see any way I can take advantage of this deal. Therefore, I have pretty much ignored that thread.
Mike, I'd rather not scan thru almost 700 posts in that thread. WHICH post are you talking about where you think you spilled the beans?
I live only 2 hours from Revel, but that's still 2 hours away. As such, I don't see any way I can take advantage of this deal. Therefore, I have pretty much ignored that thread.
Mike, I'd rather not scan thru almost 700 posts in that thread. WHICH post are you talking about where you think you spilled the beans?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 7th, 2013 at 7:48:22 PM
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Curiosity got the best of me and I scanned thru that thread to read only the Wizard's posts.
I vote "YES!"
There's one question I want to ask: Did the Revel change the promotion at all since it was first announced? If so, was that a result of Mike's statements about it?
I think, regardless of the answers to those questions, Mike should not feel guilty about talking about. If anything, Mike should let Revel know, and take credit, for bringing a whole bunch of new gamblers to their door.
I vote "YES!"
There's one question I want to ask: Did the Revel change the promotion at all since it was first announced? If so, was that a result of Mike's statements about it?
I think, regardless of the answers to those questions, Mike should not feel guilty about talking about. If anything, Mike should let Revel know, and take credit, for bringing a whole bunch of new gamblers to their door.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 7th, 2013 at 8:36:00 PM
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This could actually create more work for you Wiz. The casinos are more likely to hire you as a consultant to make sure they they don't screw up next time.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
July 7th, 2013 at 8:41:44 PM
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Quote: aceofspadesThis forum is owned and operated by the Wizard--nobody is forcing any of us to use this forum...the Wizard has to earn a living and the more people who come to this forum, the more people see the ads hereon...which, in turn, should translate into more income for the Wizard.
Ditto.
July 7th, 2013 at 8:44:02 PM
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,Quote: DJTeddyBearCuriosity got the best of me and I scanned thru that thread to read only the Wizard's posts.
I vote "YES!"
There's one question I want to ask: Did the Revel change the promotion at all since it was first announced? If so, was that a result of Mike's statements about it?
This is pretty funny, actually, because the answer to your one question (really 2) is the contested subject of more than 500 of those posts (estimate by someone who's read all of them). I can only suggest that you read the debate and decide the answers for yourself; there is no absolute answer available to date.
I voted "yes" for several reasons. The Wiz demonstrates a combination of knowledge, honesty, and integrity on this forum beyond that of any gaming industry person I've ever met, and has won my admiration and respect. I greatly appreciate having astute advice available here in pursuing my favorite hobby more intelligently and fruitfully. My entire aviation career has been governed by statistics and risk assessment, from operational choices to procedures to venturing into unknown territory, and finding a forum where I can take a similar approach in evaluating gaming choices has been very worthwhile. And that can't happen without open discussions and shared knowledge from the lot of you. So, Thank You, Wiz, for providing the forum, the expertise, the examples, the breakdown, and the lowdown on so many fronts.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
July 7th, 2013 at 9:41:47 PM
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Yes, do discuss. Just don't leak out any NSA info.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
July 7th, 2013 at 9:48:49 PM
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Quote: WizardThere has been a lot of discussion pro and con about whether I'm to blame for ruining the Revel "You Can't Lose" promotion by analyzing and writing about it.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: nothing seems to suggest that writing about it here made any difference. Revel went out of their way to advertise it openly, and "you literally can't lose" as well as the exact terms couldn't be any less cryptic.
All that withholding even the few generic bits of information WoV ever gets published on would accomplish is to further shrink what little, if anything, it represents in terms of AP sites.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
July 7th, 2013 at 10:54:55 PM
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32-1 for Yes at this moment. I wonder who the one is.
July 7th, 2013 at 11:03:02 PM
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I shall abstain for the nonce since I have not read that humungous thread about the Revel and don't know about it having been ruined. I do, however, wish to go on record as generally being in favor of disclosing information.
I do know that certain sports books will move the line as a result of even modest action by known sharpies.
I also think there is a difference between these offers of a free pair of dice or free keychain and some of the more remunerative offers subject to analysis. I recall some un-awarded progressives prizes on the books when one casino was about to close and the Gaming Board ordered whopping increases in the VP payouts. Every sharpie in town was showing up at this Beer and Lunch Bar near the courthose, some of the sharpies were playing as teams ... and most of the prize money went to non-sharpies who simply ordered a beer and a sandwich and happened to win five grand prior to sandwich arrival.
There was also a casino closing wherein free tickets to unpaid progressives were available but it seems employees wound up with most of the tickets.
These things are subject to math analysis and yes, disclosing it can end the windfall of golden eggs since often casino managers subscribe to Sharpie Newsletters, just as those Blue Haired Bingo Mavens seem to have a network of informants.
I'm aware that there are geographical factors. A Revel offer should be treated differently than one located in Vegas.
So my vote is withheld but I do strongly favor open disclosure.
I do know that certain sports books will move the line as a result of even modest action by known sharpies.
I also think there is a difference between these offers of a free pair of dice or free keychain and some of the more remunerative offers subject to analysis. I recall some un-awarded progressives prizes on the books when one casino was about to close and the Gaming Board ordered whopping increases in the VP payouts. Every sharpie in town was showing up at this Beer and Lunch Bar near the courthose, some of the sharpies were playing as teams ... and most of the prize money went to non-sharpies who simply ordered a beer and a sandwich and happened to win five grand prior to sandwich arrival.
There was also a casino closing wherein free tickets to unpaid progressives were available but it seems employees wound up with most of the tickets.
These things are subject to math analysis and yes, disclosing it can end the windfall of golden eggs since often casino managers subscribe to Sharpie Newsletters, just as those Blue Haired Bingo Mavens seem to have a network of informants.
I'm aware that there are geographical factors. A Revel offer should be treated differently than one located in Vegas.
So my vote is withheld but I do strongly favor open disclosure.
July 8th, 2013 at 3:04:36 AM
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I don't believe anything was affected by the forum here. In this day and age, even bad casino management tests and re-tests any promotional idea for cost/benefit. And that same management knows the idea will be discussed on 100 boards just like this. Maybe in 1997 they would get knocked dead by surprise by such a forum, but not today.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
July 8th, 2013 at 3:12:56 AM
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Not sure how many management types or wannabees (dual rates) monitor this board but I'm sure AP's in various specialties cringe when plays are posted. I realize that this is not an AP board but still I disagree with posting stuff that could hurt others.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
July 8th, 2013 at 6:08:47 AM
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The interwebs is public. People post what they want to post and it gets a life on its own. The Revel put out its own promotion which was open to analysis by anyone. The Wizard analyzed it. That's what he does. It's his living and I suspect he also is fascinated by the math and statistics behind promotions, games, and other things of chance.
Certainly the fact that you could pull players cards out of machines for future games of positive expectation (Ultimate X) should have been known by Revel staff (and probably was). I see plenty of people yank players cards when they have four to a royal, three of a kind to a 4 of a K etc because they don't want the players card to have a record of the win for their Win-Loss record.
This forum exists for better or worse for everyone who wishes to read it. This forum has been around what, now for almost 5 years?
If you wanted to separate this forum into a paid member section and a public section, it might benefits for the APs and serious posters to pay to see what is in the paid member section and to have closer monitoring. So when an AP play is posted in the public section, it's moved to the private section. It still won't prevent casino pits from joining and paying for such memberships.
As well, this promotion, from a major, dying casino was worth scrutiny. It wasn't an AP hiding under the radar. People suspected it would be a good play and all the Wizard did was to confirm it was so.
There are many many APs that are not published here on this website that is kept elsewhere or between a small community of people.
Certainly the fact that you could pull players cards out of machines for future games of positive expectation (Ultimate X) should have been known by Revel staff (and probably was). I see plenty of people yank players cards when they have four to a royal, three of a kind to a 4 of a K etc because they don't want the players card to have a record of the win for their Win-Loss record.
This forum exists for better or worse for everyone who wishes to read it. This forum has been around what, now for almost 5 years?
If you wanted to separate this forum into a paid member section and a public section, it might benefits for the APs and serious posters to pay to see what is in the paid member section and to have closer monitoring. So when an AP play is posted in the public section, it's moved to the private section. It still won't prevent casino pits from joining and paying for such memberships.
As well, this promotion, from a major, dying casino was worth scrutiny. It wasn't an AP hiding under the radar. People suspected it would be a good play and all the Wizard did was to confirm it was so.
There are many many APs that are not published here on this website that is kept elsewhere or between a small community of people.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
July 8th, 2013 at 7:21:19 AM
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Other than the privilege of declaring myself a bigot several times a week, my trust of mr. Shackelford to deliver the strait skinny, is the reason I lurk around here. Otherwise, I'm just jerking off.
July 8th, 2013 at 7:24:48 AM
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Quote: PaigowdanYes, do discuss. Just don't leak out any NSA info.
Do you know any cheaper way to get intimately acquainted with a portion of Moscow's airport?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 8th, 2013 at 8:58:10 AM
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Quote: aceofspadesThis forum is owned and operated by the Wizard--nobody is forcing any of us to use this forum...the Wizard has to earn a living and the more people who come to this forum, the more people see the ads hereon...which, in turn, should translate into more income for the Wizard.
Exactly. Mike did nothing wrong. If someone could please enlighten me as to how specifically Mike "ruined" the promo maybe I'd change my mind. But all I've seen is lots of hints about it, but no actual facts.
July 8th, 2013 at 8:59:02 AM
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Quote: vendman1Exactly. Mike did nothing wrong. If someone could please enlighten me as to how specifically Mike "ruined" the promo maybe I'd change my mind. But all I've seen is lots of hints about it, but no actual facts.
I think it's a superstition among APs :)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 8th, 2013 at 9:45:46 AM
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Please continue to post about these types of scenarios. This website is about education and information. Where would we be if Thorpe didn't publish about card counting?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 8th, 2013 at 10:11:21 AM
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Interesting question.Quote: DRichWhere would we be if Thorpe didn't publish about card counting?
I have a feeling the answer might be, "In a world where the only BlackJack dealt was single deck, 3:2 games."
If that's true, does the response to the poll change?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 8th, 2013 at 10:27:57 AM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearInteresting question.
I have a feeling the answer might be, "In a world where the only BlackJack dealt was single deck, 3:2 games."
If that's true, does the response to the poll change?
Funny, that was my initial thought too. Though I'm sure if Thorpe doesn't publish..beat the dealer, someone else would have published something similar, sooner or later. It is an interesting theoretical question though. No question it changed the way BJ is played and dealt forever.
July 8th, 2013 at 11:25:53 AM
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Quote: vendman1Funny, that was my initial thought too. Though I'm sure if Thorpe doesn't publish..beat the dealer, someone else would have published something similar, sooner or later. It is an interesting theoretical question though. No question it changed the way BJ is played and dealt forever.
Thorpe just blew the lid off of it by publishing. Based on what I've heard about the era*, "smart" gamblers were already taking advantage of advantageous situations and blackjack games, and were probably pretty pissed when he released "Beat the Dealer." Alas, life goes on. Thorpe was more of a mathematician than a gambler anyway, I don't think he gave much though to "ruining" some people's income stream. If he didn't publish it, someone else would have eventually.
*Note that I wasn't even born until the '80s so I this is all based on stuff I've read and heard.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
July 8th, 2013 at 12:12:02 PM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsThorpe just blew the lid off of it by publishing. Based on what I've heard about the era*, "smart" gamblers were already taking advantage of advantageous situations and blackjack games, and were probably pretty pissed when he released "Beat the Dealer." Alas, life goes on. Thorpe was more of a mathematician than a gambler anyway, I don't think he gave much though to "ruining" some people's income stream. If he didn't publish it, someone else would have eventually.
*Note that I wasn't even born until the '80s so I this is all based on stuff I've read and heard.
Now I really feel old . I dropped out of Mt. Saint Joe's in 1957. If you don't know where that is, ask vendman. I am sure he knows where Catonsville is.
NO disrespect meant but Mike's site is small fish and likely to get smaller once on-line gaming, poker and casino's are legal.
Not a question of IF that will happen, but WHEN.
Being a site that does not discriminate AP and encourages people to take advantage of any and all offers can help attract players to
this site.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
July 8th, 2013 at 12:39:40 PM
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Quote: DJTeddyBearThere's one question I want to ask: Did the Revel change the promotion at all since it was first announced?
No, they haven't changed the promotion at all, despite all the hand-wringing on that thread.
What they HAVE done is remove the $25 VP machines before the promotion began, but after the thread started. We have no evidence that the thread caused this this removal as they could have been scheduled for removal regardless.
They have also pulled some players club cards of AP players and supposedly have a list of 40-some people who will not be allowed to utilize the promotion. None of these people's real names were posted on the thread with a big "Warning" next to it prior to their cards being pulled, so I fail to see how the thread could have caused that.
But, again, the promotion itself is unchanged.
Quote: WizardIt is argued that some things are too good to tell everybody and are better left to the fortunate ones who find out about such things anyway.
That's the same argument for shutting down the internet as a whole, is it not? Let's stop all publishing of all information until the "secret elite" have decided wether or not it is going to be harmful to them. Yeah, that's the world I want to live in!
July 8th, 2013 at 1:54:26 PM
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I'm a bigot.
casino's money disappears
the execs worry when the wizard is near
He turns tears into joy
Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
July 8th, 2013 at 2:04:33 PM
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While we're on this, does anyone else dislike it when someone comes asking for help for a particular promo, but then refuses to say where and when the promo is at?
I fully understand the need, sometimes, for caution regarding these things. Math consultants or not, sometimes mistakes happen. But if you expect people to help you, you should also expect to give something in return.
I fully understand the need, sometimes, for caution regarding these things. Math consultants or not, sometimes mistakes happen. But if you expect people to help you, you should also expect to give something in return.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 8th, 2013 at 2:26:13 PM
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I don't think the third option is mutually exclusive of the other two.
July 8th, 2013 at 3:25:22 PM
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Quote: darrellgI don't think the third option is mutually exclusive of the other two.
Quote:Member since: Oct 19, 2009
Waiting for the right time to make your first post?
July 8th, 2013 at 3:26:37 PM
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Quote: NareedWhile we're on this, does anyone else dislike it when someone comes asking for help for a particular promo, but then refuses to say where and when the promo is at?
I fully understand the need, sometimes, for caution regarding these things. Math consultants or not, sometimes mistakes happen. But if you expect people to help you, you should also expect to give something in return.
If you're the person wanting help, just shoot whoever you think can figure it out a PM and they either will or will not respond. Just make sure to state that you want the information to be confidential, then the PM Confidentiality Rule cannot be violated. Of course, if the recipient later heard the same thing from another source, he could freely talk about it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
July 8th, 2013 at 3:35:49 PM
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Quote: Mission146If you're the person wanting help, just shoot whoever you think can figure it out a PM and they either will or will not respond
The point is these people post publicly but won't give any information as to location and time.
When/if I need help, I post publicly and will either post the palce and time on my own, or give it up readily upon request. Fair is fair (something Aristotle knew millennia ago).
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 8th, 2013 at 5:59:09 PM
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Quote: NareedWhile we're on this, does anyone else dislike it when someone comes asking for help for a particular promo, but then refuses to say where and when the promo is at?
Personally, I don't mind this at all, and I will often answer and help them.
- It's often a math problem which is interesting in itself. I enjoy math. I enjoy helping people with math. I enjoy developing my own math skills.
- Even if I can't take advantage of that particular promotion, it may alert me to be on the lookout for future similar promotions.
- There may be enough information for me to find it anyway. If only people who are willing to put in a little research effort can track it down, that's probably better for the promo's longevity.
July 8th, 2013 at 6:33:34 PM
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I'm not voting, because it depends entirely on what you're trying to do.
Are you trying to entertain the maximum number of people? By all means, post away.
Are you trying to maximize your own income? Full disclosure will raise your pageviews and possibly generate consulting leads. Again, post away. You will not make yourself loved among pros and other experienced players - look at how Dancer's name is a curse word among many - but you are not obliged to care about that.
The only reason I replied in the other thread is that you stated that your goal was to maximize the amount that players won from the promo. I'm not sure why you would have that goal, since unlike me, you view casinos and players as morally equivalent. But if that is what you are trying to accomplish, then indiscriminate full disclosure is not always the way to go. And I don't think many of the people in this thread have the experience - either from working with casinos, as you have, or from seeing the outcomes of many promos with vs without internet discussion, as a few of us have - to give an informed view on the subject.
FWIW, I think there are strong indications that Dancer's radio show and vpfree post influenced Revel management. Look at how their initial countermeasures, taken one day after the show aired, coincided exactly with what Dancer hypothesized on the show that they might do. Notice how they did not take other, arguably more effective, countermeasures (which I will not discuss here) which were not discussed on the show. Look at the post from one of the barred players saying that Revel management told them that a "well-known AP" said there were would be Vegas teams coming to play, which is what Dancer said on the show.
Again, I am not saying that Dancer, or you, is the reason why (from the player standpoint) everything went to hell here. But it is a possible factor. When one is considering the potential for dozens of players to lose an opportunity worth tens of thousands of dollars, even a small possible factor is worth giving serious consideration, if maximizing player win is truly your motivation.
Are you trying to entertain the maximum number of people? By all means, post away.
Are you trying to maximize your own income? Full disclosure will raise your pageviews and possibly generate consulting leads. Again, post away. You will not make yourself loved among pros and other experienced players - look at how Dancer's name is a curse word among many - but you are not obliged to care about that.
The only reason I replied in the other thread is that you stated that your goal was to maximize the amount that players won from the promo. I'm not sure why you would have that goal, since unlike me, you view casinos and players as morally equivalent. But if that is what you are trying to accomplish, then indiscriminate full disclosure is not always the way to go. And I don't think many of the people in this thread have the experience - either from working with casinos, as you have, or from seeing the outcomes of many promos with vs without internet discussion, as a few of us have - to give an informed view on the subject.
FWIW, I think there are strong indications that Dancer's radio show and vpfree post influenced Revel management. Look at how their initial countermeasures, taken one day after the show aired, coincided exactly with what Dancer hypothesized on the show that they might do. Notice how they did not take other, arguably more effective, countermeasures (which I will not discuss here) which were not discussed on the show. Look at the post from one of the barred players saying that Revel management told them that a "well-known AP" said there were would be Vegas teams coming to play, which is what Dancer said on the show.
Again, I am not saying that Dancer, or you, is the reason why (from the player standpoint) everything went to hell here. But it is a possible factor. When one is considering the potential for dozens of players to lose an opportunity worth tens of thousands of dollars, even a small possible factor is worth giving serious consideration, if maximizing player win is truly your motivation.
July 8th, 2013 at 6:36:57 PM
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Quote: AahzNo, they haven't changed the promotion at all, despite all the hand-wringing on that thread. [...] They have also pulled some players club cards of AP players
They have refused to honor the promotion for certain players with no explanation. Not even bogus explanations, like "you're an AP". A promotion which is honored only at whim is no promotion at all.
For all intents and purposes, the promotion is over. If you lose money, they might give you freeplay to lure you back in the future, or they might not, but that's always been the case.
July 8th, 2013 at 8:43:03 PM
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Quote: fivespotQuote: AahzNo, they haven't changed the promotion at all, despite all the hand-wringing on that thread. [...] They have also pulled some players club cards of AP players
They have refused to honor the promotion for certain players with no explanation. Not even bogus explanations, like "you're an AP". A promotion which is honored only at whim is no promotion at all.
For all intents and purposes, the promotion is over. If you lose money, they might give you freeplay to lure you back in the future, or they might not, but that's always been the case.
Exactly like I said - no change to the promotion whatsoever.
July 8th, 2013 at 8:47:00 PM
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I think the key to the question at hand was very well written by fivespot....
Dozens of players may have lost the opportunity to make some money. But that's dozens (who may or may not be your readers, Wiz) versus how many hundreds (thousands?) of your readers who may have beneffitted from your analysis.
Quote: fivespotWhen one is considering the potential for dozens of players to lose an opportunity worth tens of thousands of dollars.
Dozens of players may have lost the opportunity to make some money. But that's dozens (who may or may not be your readers, Wiz) versus how many hundreds (thousands?) of your readers who may have beneffitted from your analysis.
July 8th, 2013 at 10:54:14 PM
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We live in a capitalist society. Nothing comes free. Exposure and discussion of advantage plays brings more people to your website which results in more ad revenue for you. Website owners can do and will do anything to get more hits whether it's flashy design, outrageous headlines or offering unique information or services. You have stated before that a large portion of your income is generated through the Bovada ads here. You take measures to ensure quality in your websites by having standards for your forum and providing information that is useful for simpletons as well as advantage players. You have to look out for yourself. I love how in your position and on your sites you are able to help people lose less while still profiting yourself. I find the same thing rewarding in the public accounting profession as I can provide investors with reasonable assurance on company financials to protect their wallets while still padding my own. Though I enjoy helping people and my job, I would not cut my fees for someone else to benefit in having more money. Similarly, there is no reason for you to give up revenue simply to please others.
Same concept pisses me off with environmentalist movement in the US. Obama wants to go green at the cost of thousands of jobs and millions of GDP to benefit the international community. Great idea, too bad the developing world is burning fossil fuel like madmen, making the large concessions the US meaningless. In a perfect world other countries would join us in going green, but that won't happen anytime soon. In a perfect world the members of this forum could learn of advantage plays but keep them under the radar enough that they aren't brought out into daylight. Not the way the world works though, so you just have to look out for what is best for you at the end of the day.
Same concept pisses me off with environmentalist movement in the US. Obama wants to go green at the cost of thousands of jobs and millions of GDP to benefit the international community. Great idea, too bad the developing world is burning fossil fuel like madmen, making the large concessions the US meaningless. In a perfect world other countries would join us in going green, but that won't happen anytime soon. In a perfect world the members of this forum could learn of advantage plays but keep them under the radar enough that they aren't brought out into daylight. Not the way the world works though, so you just have to look out for what is best for you at the end of the day.
July 9th, 2013 at 4:28:10 AM
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There is probably a strong correlation of gamblers to advantage players evident in this poll. Well someone has to pay for the electricity!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
July 9th, 2013 at 6:32:01 AM
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To pay the electric bill you have to borrow the money from the little old blue hair ladies who consistently keep cleaning the casino's clock at Bingo.Quote: DeMangoWell someone has to pay for the electricity!
July 9th, 2013 at 2:24:00 PM
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This is not a well framed question, and the true answer is not listed as one of the options. Its clear to everyone that there is some information that should not be shared if you care about advantage players. For example, a particular dealer at a casino flashes cards and you post that in a public forum. On the other hand, we all agree that some information will help out many players and not hurt anyone's action. For example, how to play 9/6 jacks or better.
In the case of promotions, the fact that the promotion exists should be publicly shared. Information that is likely to be used by casinos against advantage players should be more closely kept. Treating this as a black or white issue is just clearly incorrect. There are ways to share the information in private in ways that it won't spread. This is a point I've made countless times and nobody has acknowledged.
Also, the information should be evaluated against the value it adds versus the risk of loss it adds. In the case of the revel, the objective function for the 9/6 DDB simulations was very flat in the region we were interested in. If the Wizard just said: go for a royal sized win or lose everything, the players would have got almost all of the value and the casino might not have known the exact EV of the promotion.
In the case of promotions, the fact that the promotion exists should be publicly shared. Information that is likely to be used by casinos against advantage players should be more closely kept. Treating this as a black or white issue is just clearly incorrect. There are ways to share the information in private in ways that it won't spread. This is a point I've made countless times and nobody has acknowledged.
Also, the information should be evaluated against the value it adds versus the risk of loss it adds. In the case of the revel, the objective function for the 9/6 DDB simulations was very flat in the region we were interested in. If the Wizard just said: go for a royal sized win or lose everything, the players would have got almost all of the value and the casino might not have known the exact EV of the promotion.
July 9th, 2013 at 2:29:09 PM
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Quote: randompersonIts clear to everyone that there is some information that should not be shared if you care about advantage players.
No, it's not.
Quote: randompersonThere are ways to share the information in private in ways that it won't spread. This is a point I've made countless times and nobody has acknowledged.
The point has been acknowledged repeatedly. And rebutted as well. Of course there are ways to keep info private. The debate is not over whether it CAN be kept private but whether it SHOULD be kept private.
July 9th, 2013 at 2:30:03 PM
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Why should Wizard care that his actions might have spoiled fun for a very few (~ 2.5%) of his members?
July 9th, 2013 at 2:52:18 PM
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Quote: AahzNo, it's not.
The point has been acknowledged repeatedly. And rebutted as well. Of course there are ways to keep info private. The debate is not over whether it CAN be kept private but whether it SHOULD be kept private.
All right, I'm not seeing how telling a casino about leaks will help advantage players. Things like machines that give too many points will be immediately shut down when the casino finds out. You've forced yourself into the corner of defending the idea that more information always helps advantage players, which we know isn't true.
I don't think the point has been acknowledged. The point is that it isn't a matter of whether he should post or not post, but what he should post in public and what he should tell people in private. If the objective is helping advantage players, that can be done without giving the casino a clue of what is coming. My point is that giving out selective information increases the value to advantage players, while giving out all information decreases it. If your objective is to increase the total AP value, then he should pick the highest EV way to reveal information.
July 9th, 2013 at 3:00:32 PM
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Quote: randompersonAll right, I'm not seeing how telling a casino about leaks will help advantage players. Things like machines that give too many points will be immediately shut down when the casino finds out. You've forced yourself into the corner of defending the idea that more information always helps advantage players, which we know isn't true.
Wow, it's completely impossible for you to see things from anyone's perspective but your own isn't it?
I certainly haven't forced myself into any corner. What you continue to fail to see is that I DON'T CARE about advantage players. The world, and the casinos, and this board don't exist for the benefit of APs. If people never publicly shared information there wouldn't even BE advantage players.
Quote: randompersonI don't think the point has been acknowledged.
He says in response to yet another post acknowledging and then dismissing his point. But let's try one more time...
Quote: randompersonThe point is that it isn't a matter of whether he should post or not post, but what he should post in public and what he should tell people in private.
The VERY SPECIFIC point of this post is whether he should continue to post in public or not. Just because that's not the discussion YOU wish to have doesn't make it not the point of THIS post.
Quote: randompersonIf the objective is helping advantage players,
Once again - IT'S NOT. The objective is to help people.
Quote: randompersonMy point is that giving out selective information increases the value to advantage players, while giving out all information decreases it.
We're very aware of that.
Quote: randompersonIf your objective is to increase the total AP value
It's not.
Quote: randompersonthen he should pick the highest EV way to reveal information.
He does, by spreading that information to as many people as possible. And more than 90% of those who bothered to respond to this poll seem to agree.
July 9th, 2013 at 3:12:03 PM
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Quote: AahzWow, it's completely impossible for you to see things from anyone's perspective but your own isn't it?
I certainly haven't forced myself into any corner. What you continue to fail to see is that I DON'T CARE about advantage players. The world, and the casinos, and this board don't exist for the benefit of APs. If people never publicly shared information there wouldn't even BE advantage players.
Use his specific example. Say there is a machine that is awarding too many comp points, so much that it becomes +EV to play it. How does announcing that on the internet help anyone, since it greatly increases the chances of the casino shutting it down?
July 9th, 2013 at 3:19:19 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
July 9th, 2013 at 3:19:40 PM
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Quote: jc2286Use his specific example. Say there is a machine that is awarding too many comp points, so much that it becomes +EV to play it. How does announcing that on the internet help anyone, since it greatly increases the chances of the casino shutting it down?
By definition it helps everyone who learns of the situation by reading the announcement (or anyone they tell who hadn't already heard) and has an opportunity to play it regardless of whether they consider themselves an AP player. It also helps the casino (should they read the announcement and shut down the machine) remain profitable so that they will remain in business providing enough of an edge for the masses to continue to be entertained and feel they're getting a good value.
As someone's sig line says: "If the player's won every hand, the House simply wouldn't deal."
And, BTW, that's not remotely what happened in the Revel situation that sparked this discussion and is not something I've ever seen the Wizard do.
