Odds on the next Pope
February 13th, 2013 at 2:06:02 AM
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Here are the Pinnacle lines.
This got me to wondering about who these front runners are.
Peter Turkson is a cardinal from Ghana. At the risk of getting called a racist, I am pretty shocked to see he is the front runner. I'd bet the NO if I could on him.
Marc Ouellet is a Canadian Cardinal. Seems to have an impressive resume, and groomed for high places.
Angelo Scola is an Italian Cardinal. That should be worth a lot of points right there.
Personally, my money is on Scola. I certainly hope FrG finds the time to chime in.
| Pope | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marc Ouellet | 380 |
| Peter Turkson | 285 |
| Francis Arinze | 806 |
| Angelo Scola | 425 |
| Leonardo Sandri | 1002 |
| Gianfranco Ravasi | 1325 |
| Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga | 1325 |
| Angelo Bagnasco | 1454 |
| Jean-Louis Pierre Tauran | 1454 |
| Tarcisio Bertone | 1325 |
This got me to wondering about who these front runners are.
Peter Turkson is a cardinal from Ghana. At the risk of getting called a racist, I am pretty shocked to see he is the front runner. I'd bet the NO if I could on him.
Marc Ouellet is a Canadian Cardinal. Seems to have an impressive resume, and groomed for high places.
Angelo Scola is an Italian Cardinal. That should be worth a lot of points right there.
Personally, my money is on Scola. I certainly hope FrG finds the time to chime in.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 13th, 2013 at 2:45:17 AM
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It was 12th century when St. Malachy told us the Petrus Romanus (the last Pope) will be black. http://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2013/02/papal-prophecy-of-st-malachy-says-there-will-be-just-one-more-pope-after-benedict-the-black-pope-2444722.html
So the end is near...
So the end is near...
February 13th, 2013 at 4:22:14 AM
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Somehow they sniff out anyone campaigning for the job and the optimal candidate doesn't want it. So I have heard years ago.
I am a robot.
February 13th, 2013 at 4:54:32 AM
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FWIW, there has seemed to be a move away from the Italian popes in recent years as the pope used to be all Italian all the time. but John Paul II was Polish, and Benedict isn't Italian either. I think betting on the Italian would be akin to flushing your money down the toilet. I was hoping to see my former Archbishop from my days in Milwaukee on this list in Cardinal Dolan who is now Cardinal in NYC.
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
February 13th, 2013 at 5:01:11 AM
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Quote: Gabes22FWIW, there has seemed to be a move away from the Italian popes in recent years as the pope used to be all Italian all the time. but John Paul II was Polish, and Benedict isn't Italian either.
I'm sure Paco will come along with a table of Popes and country of origin anytime now. That would help me get a feel for handicapping this.
By the way, Ratzinger was the favorite last time, at about 2 to 1.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 13th, 2013 at 5:11:19 AM
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By some research, John Paul II was the first non-Italian pope in over 450 years. I get the impression that the church is making a concerted effort at recognizing itself as a global brand although and are thus wary to name another Italian as pope. If the church wants to make a splash, naming a pope outside the EU would be a huge step in that direction
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
February 13th, 2013 at 5:12:10 AM
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I suspect among the voting cardinals, it will come to tradition and will go to the Italian. Initial ballots will go to Turkson / Ouellet but because they would both be choices that are "out there", the vote will divide itself and return to Scola, someone who they could all reluctantly agree upon.... kind of like Romney.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
February 13th, 2013 at 5:28:31 AM
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Quote: boymimboI suspect among the voting cardinals, it will come to tradition and will go to the Italian. Initial ballots will go to Turkson / Ouellet but because they would both be choices that are "out there", the vote will divide itself and return to Scola, someone who they could all reluctantly agree upon.... kind of like Romney.
I can see them afraid to have another quitter which would bolster your claim.
I am a robot.
February 13th, 2013 at 5:53:41 AM
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does betting stop when the smoke starts? What about an all others bet....a la Kentucky Derby futures poolQuote: WizardHere are the Pinnacle lines.
Pope Odds Marc Ouellet 380 Peter Turkson 285 Francis Arinze 806 Angelo Scola 425 Leonardo Sandri 1002 Gianfranco Ravasi 1325 Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga 1325 Angelo Bagnasco 1454 Jean-Louis Pierre Tauran 1454 Tarcisio Bertone 1325
This got me to wondering about who these front runners are.
Peter Turkson is a cardinal from Ghana. I may get called a racist, but I am pretty shocked to see he is the front runner. I'd bet the NO if I could on him.
Marc Ouellet is a Canadian Cardinal. Seems to have an impressive resume, and groomed for high places.
Angelo Scola is an Italian Cardinal. That should be worth a lot of points right there.
Personally, my money is on Scola. I certainly hope FrG finds the time to chime in.
February 13th, 2013 at 5:56:39 AM
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Turkson openly campaigns for the job. That has to be off-putting to the voters.
February 13th, 2013 at 6:14:51 AM
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According to Paddypower.com (Irish betting site), Bono is geting 1000:1 odds
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
February 13th, 2013 at 6:46:23 AM
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Isn't it time for a Church outsider to get elected? How about a Jewish Pope? :P
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 13th, 2013 at 7:04:44 AM
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Quit campaigning for the job -- it hurts your chances!
February 13th, 2013 at 7:06:07 AM
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The feeling in 2005 was that Ratzinger would be a transitional pope who wouldn't be around that long (he was 78 at the time) and that the first non-white/3rd world pope would come next. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are allowed to vote. This could make the electorate more progressive than would be seen if every cardinal could vote. Europeans hold 62 of the 118 votes with Italy holding by far the most with 27.
February 13th, 2013 at 7:15:39 AM
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Quote: Gabes22FWIW, there has seemed to be a move away from the Italian popes in recent years as the pope used to be all Italian all the time. but John Paul II was Polish, and Benedict isn't Italian either.
Mostly this means the large majority of people now alive cannot remember such a thing as an Italian Pope. There has been no italian on the throne for a generation, literally. Bringing one in now would feel like upsetting a precedent, not returning to one.
There has been a European Pope all this time, though. That's what people are used to.
So going on that a European is most likely, again. But if he happens to be Italian, most poeple won't attach much significance to that.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 13th, 2013 at 7:40:39 AM
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It would be interesting to see a black Pope. Mostly because
he would be living in a country that isn't real crazy about
blacks. They won't even accept the term Afro-Italian for
the few black Italians who live there. A black Pope living
in the Vatican for possibly decades? Blacks make up 20%
of the Church, maybe its about time.
he would be living in a country that isn't real crazy about
blacks. They won't even accept the term Afro-Italian for
the few black Italians who live there. A black Pope living
in the Vatican for possibly decades? Blacks make up 20%
of the Church, maybe its about time.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 13th, 2013 at 7:42:35 AM
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By far, the most Catholics are in S. America / Mexico; why then shouldn't the new Pope hail from there?
"What, me worry?"
February 13th, 2013 at 8:00:07 AM
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EvenBob just pm'd me it will be Pope Romney.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 13th, 2013 at 9:43:27 AM
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I would like to see one voted in from South America or Central America. I believe there are more Catholics there than anywhere else.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
February 13th, 2013 at 9:43:45 AM
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I wonder what my odds are?
Somebody not on the list that in all seriousness I think has a chance is Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York. The message seems pretty clear from Pope Benedict we need a dynamic and engaging new Pope that can respond to the needs of the world. Cardinal Dolan, while a back-slapper, is highly respected for his orthodoxy and recently led all the Cardinals in a special gathering about the New Evangelization. If you want a friendly and charismatic new John XXIII, then look no further than Tim Dolan. I know an American Pope would be crazy, but these are historic crazy times we live in. Don't count him out.
For a different reason I also think a Pope coming from a third world country would be awesome. There is a new Cardinal from the East, I don't know the country and am forgetting the name right now, who is very charismatic and smart. He would be a good choice.
Finally, if you are looking for a pastoral Pope who is a thinking man and is thoughtful and kind, always trying to find middle ground, than Cardinal Schonbourn (sp?) would be a great choice as well.
Regardless it is going to be very interesting; will the Cardinals respond to the challenge and have the courage to elect a younger Pope who can engage the world and our culture with the energy and vitality that is needed? Stay tuned...
Somebody not on the list that in all seriousness I think has a chance is Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York. The message seems pretty clear from Pope Benedict we need a dynamic and engaging new Pope that can respond to the needs of the world. Cardinal Dolan, while a back-slapper, is highly respected for his orthodoxy and recently led all the Cardinals in a special gathering about the New Evangelization. If you want a friendly and charismatic new John XXIII, then look no further than Tim Dolan. I know an American Pope would be crazy, but these are historic crazy times we live in. Don't count him out.
For a different reason I also think a Pope coming from a third world country would be awesome. There is a new Cardinal from the East, I don't know the country and am forgetting the name right now, who is very charismatic and smart. He would be a good choice.
Finally, if you are looking for a pastoral Pope who is a thinking man and is thoughtful and kind, always trying to find middle ground, than Cardinal Schonbourn (sp?) would be a great choice as well.
Regardless it is going to be very interesting; will the Cardinals respond to the challenge and have the courage to elect a younger Pope who can engage the world and our culture with the energy and vitality that is needed? Stay tuned...
February 13th, 2013 at 11:00:54 AM
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Quote: FrGambleI wonder what my odds are?
Easy:
Add up all the world's Catholics. Substract those who are being considered, times ten just to cover all possible contingencies. Divide one by the result. Off the top of my head and making a few assumptions, I think you have better chances of winning a big progressive jackpot in any casino offering one.
So, has anyone ever refused the Papacy?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
February 13th, 2013 at 11:01:32 AM
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Quote: NareedEasy:
Add up all the world's Catholics. Substract those who are being considered, times ten just to cover all possible contingencies. Divide one by the result. Off the top of my head and making a few assumptions, I think you have better chances of winning a big progressive jackpot in any casino offering one.
So, has anyone ever refused the Papacy?
Mitt Romney
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 13th, 2013 at 11:01:59 AM
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Quote: Nareed
So, has anyone ever refused the Papacy?
Sinead O'Connor on SNL I believe
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
February 13th, 2013 at 12:41:22 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIt would be interesting to see a black Pope. Mostly because
he would be living in a country that isn't real crazy about
blacks. They won't even accept the term Afro-Italian for
the few black Italians who live there. A black Pope living
in the Vatican for possibly decades? Blacks make up 20%
of the Church, maybe its about time.
The obvious answer to this is one person. The first black and the first female in one shot. Poperah Winfrey!
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
February 13th, 2013 at 12:50:06 PM
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Quote: Zcore13The obvious answer to this is one person. The first black and the first female in one shot. Poperah Winfrey!
ZCore13
You get a mitre! You get a mitre! You get a mitre
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
February 13th, 2013 at 12:51:33 PM
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A 3rd world Pope, like the Church doesn't have enough
problems. I have a friend who's son is married to a
devout Catholic. I mean rabid, their kids go to Catholic
schools, they work for a Catholic charity. The son who's
married to her says his wife will go ballistic if they elect
a 3rd world or black Pope. I'm sure she's not the only
one with those sentiments.
problems. I have a friend who's son is married to a
devout Catholic. I mean rabid, their kids go to Catholic
schools, they work for a Catholic charity. The son who's
married to her says his wife will go ballistic if they elect
a 3rd world or black Pope. I'm sure she's not the only
one with those sentiments.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 13th, 2013 at 1:12:52 PM
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with a black pope you would have a striking contrast with the white robe/hat. A problem I can see imediately is that the black Ash Wednesday spot on forehead could not be seen on black pope.
February 13th, 2013 at 2:10:43 PM
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It's 2013. Do we even need a pope anymore?
They should just make an iPhone app instead.
They should just make an iPhone app instead.
February 13th, 2013 at 2:13:50 PM
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Quote: sodawaterIt's 2013. Do we even need a pope anymore?
.
The Pope is the Church's direct connection to god. Kinda
like the big tree Native Americans used to worship.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 13th, 2013 at 2:39:56 PM
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love the app idea.....the app would include games that would revisit the Crusades. "Kill a Non-Chrisian".....50 kills and you get a free catapult...and of course a store...pope scopes, pope soap on a rope, autograph pics of the pope mobile and confessions all payable through pay pal........just kidding Catholics.,Quote: sodawaterIt's 2013. Do we even need a pope anymore?
They should just make an iPhone app instead.
February 13th, 2013 at 5:19:19 PM
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Quote: FrGambleSomebody not on the list that in all seriousness I think has a chance is Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York...For a different reason I also think a Pope coming from a third world country would be awesome.
Thanks for participating, Father. I hope you won't get the naysayers keep you from returning.
May I challenge you to a friendly bet? As to the country of origin of the next pope, give me all of Europe and you can have the rest of the world. My Wizard of Odds polo shirt against your rosary. What do you say?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 13th, 2013 at 5:35:18 PM
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My dear sir you have a bet! I have two rosaries I often use: a "ranger rosary" made out of parachute cord and a nice one. I will offer up the nice one. Come to think of it I have a lot of rosaries, some I have never used and never will use. For example someone gave me and Ravens and an Orioles rosary.
As to Nareed's question about anyone refusing the papacy - I can almost guarantee it has happened many times. When elected the first question asked is - "Do you accept?" I am sure many have said no, but everything that happens in a conclave stays in a conclave.
As to Nareed's question about anyone refusing the papacy - I can almost guarantee it has happened many times. When elected the first question asked is - "Do you accept?" I am sure many have said no, but everything that happens in a conclave stays in a conclave.
February 13th, 2013 at 5:35:35 PM
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Quote: FrGambleRegardless it is going to be very interesting...
Old Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times."
"What, me worry?"
February 13th, 2013 at 6:05:57 PM
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Quote: FrGambleMy dear sir you have a bet!
It is official then! The Ranger Rosary sounds wonderful. I would be proud to have it, and it will certainly have a good story to come along with it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 13th, 2013 at 6:17:08 PM
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Quote: Wizard
May I challenge you to a friendly bet? As to the country of origin of the next pope, give me all of Europe and you can have the rest of the world. My Wizard of Odds polo shirt against your rosary. What do you say?
Mike, I think FrG has the better of you on this bet. I've looked at the current odds at various betting agencies and they're all under 49% for a European Pope. Not all are offering a Nation/Region option so I had to manually collate the individual odds but, imo, FrG has an +EV bet, at this point in time.
February 13th, 2013 at 6:42:20 PM
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Quote: mickpkMike, I think FrG has the better of you on this bet.
You may be right. However, I'm doing it more for the fun of the bet than the outcome. Besides, how many non-European popes have there been before?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 13th, 2013 at 7:18:47 PM
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Quote: WizardYou may be right. However, I'm doing it more for the fun of the bet than the outcome. Besides, how many non-European popes have there been before?
Doesn't this violate your gambling commandments Wiz? Next thing you know we will learn that you are a closet penny slot player sometimes because they can be 'fun'.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
February 13th, 2013 at 7:43:23 PM
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Quote: kenarmanDoesn't this violate your gambling commandments Wiz?
There is an exception for friendly bets with priests.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 13th, 2013 at 9:50:14 PM
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Quote: WizardYou may be right. However, I'm doing it more for the fun of the bet than the outcome. Besides, how many non-European popes have there been before?
As many non-white Presidents before.... ;)
I'm waiting/hoping for Betfair to set a market so I can lay some of the options but I haven't seen one so far.
February 15th, 2013 at 4:03:53 AM
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There has been a change in the top three positions in the horse race. Marc Ouellet of Canada has dropped to fourth. Now in third place is Tarcisio_Bertone, of Italy. His odds have shot up from +1325 in my original post to +394 now.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 19th, 2013 at 10:11:52 AM
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Many people must be buying into St. Malachy's "prophecy".
100% risk of ruin
February 19th, 2013 at 5:04:14 PM
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My wager with FrG is not looking too good. Here are the latest Pinnacle odds for those with odds under +1000.
Turkson (Ghana) +208
Oullet (Canada): +306
Scola (Italy) +337
Bertone (Italy) +607
Turkson (Ghana) +208
Oullet (Canada): +306
Scola (Italy) +337
Bertone (Italy) +607
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 19th, 2013 at 5:08:59 PM
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I favor Italian Pope's. Everything seems right with the
world when the Pope is from Italy.
world when the Pope is from Italy.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
February 19th, 2013 at 5:34:44 PM
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Quote: WizardYou may be right. However, I'm doing it more for the fun of the bet than the outcome. Besides, how many non-European popes have there been before?
Peter?
(In all seriousness, between the Eastern church and the rise of Islam, there weren't many Catholics outside Europe for about a thousand years there... but I count five besides Peter, the most recent in the seventh century, two from the Holy Land, one from Syria, and two from North Africa.)
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
February 19th, 2013 at 6:04:31 PM
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I think the era of Italiian popes is over. At the time, picking a polish pope was a huge change for the church. This was still during the cold war and picking John Paul II was making a huge statement. Anti communist and the 1st non italian in centurys. John Paul II was a smashing success. Picking Benedict, the 2nd non italian in centurys, gave the church some time to reflect on John Paul II and give the cardinals some time to think about the churches next big move, a non-european pope. The church realizes its strength is the huge number of catholics outside of Europe. We have a black president. Why not a black pope, or hispanic or asian. A daring pick would help the church grow.
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
February 19th, 2013 at 6:05:21 PM
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Quote: 24Bingobut I count five besides Peter
Good point. Let me rephrase. When was the last time there was a Pope from outside of Europe?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
February 19th, 2013 at 6:10:24 PM
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Quote: Fuengirola2It was 12th century when St. Malachy told us the Petrus Romanus (the last Pope) will be black. http://beforeitsnews.com/prophecy/2013/02/papal-prophecy-of-st-malachy-says-there-will-be-just-one-more-pope-after-benedict-the-black-pope-2444722.html
So the end is near...
You know what I always wondered about these so-called 'prophecies'...if there is an end of the world prophecy that there will be a black pope that calls themselves Peter the Roman, why not (A) avoid electing a black pope or (B) elect a black pope but do not allow him to be known as Peter the Roman?
February 19th, 2013 at 6:31:17 PM
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yes, just seems like popes should be Italian. The black dude from Ghana is a good looking guy that appears as if he's not going to be hunched over for at least 25 years. The "prophecy" must be fulfilled. Bring on the black dude.Quote: EvenBobI favor Italian Pope's. Everything seems right with the
world when the Pope is from Italy.
Each day is better than the next
February 19th, 2013 at 6:58:18 PM
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Quote: WizardMy wager with FrG is not looking too good. Here are the latest Pinnacle odds for those with odds under +1000.
Turkson (Ghana) +208
Oullet (Canada): +306
Scola (Italy) +337
Bertone (Italy) +607
That's quite a bit different from here http://centrebet.com/#Sports/4097250
Scola is at +200 and Oullet at +500
Scroll down that link and you'll find a market on Origin of Next Pope. Europe is at +100.
February 19th, 2013 at 7:41:57 PM
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Quote: aceofspadesYou know what I always wondered about these so-called 'prophecies'...if there is an end of the world prophecy that there will be a black pope that calls themselves Peter the Roman, why not (A) avoid electing a black pope or (B) elect a black pope but do not allow him to be known as Peter the Roman?
1. The end of the world is kind of supposed to be a good thing.
2. The Church considers that "prophecy," or any prophecy that claims to pin down the end, heresy, per Matthew 24:36.
3. He wouldn't be called Peter the Roman - there's only one Peter - but his personal name is Peter, and unlike the Peter before him, his recognition would be strictly "Roman."
4. It doesn't actually say he's black. That's a later idea that sprung up around it (XKCD 1095...) in a racist and Protestant time.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
