Car Prop Bet
Does anyone want to make some Prop Bets on my, "Secondary," vehicle. I put 'Secondary' in quotations because I like it the best, and therefore drive it the most.
I won't be betting, personally, because that's basically like giving Mother Karma the middle finger and just asking to be stranded on the highway as the transmission literally drops out from under the vehicle.
My, "Primary," vehicle is a 2008 Chrysler PT Cruiser, but that's irrelevant.
Back-Up Vehicle
Year: 1998
Make: Chevrolet
Model: Cavalier
Body: Two-Door Coupe
Features: Sunroof, CD Player.
Odometer: ~160,500
I'd like to see what someone thinks would be fair odds on it making it to 200k, 250k, 300k. I think The Wizard can calculate fair odds on anything under the sun, so maybe he'll be interested in figuring this one out.
Disclosures
Accidents: Various, nothing major, body damage.
Paint: Significantly faded.
Rust: Virtually None.
Ownership: I have owned the car since February 2012.
Accidents (While Owned): Someone put a dent in the panel in front of the driver's side door. Hit-and-Run, probably in a parking lot. I only have liability on the vehicle, and even if I had the same full coverage as on my PT Cruiser, it'd be less than the deductible.
(Known) Major Repairs: Timing Belt, Serpentine Belt, Fuel Pump, Water Pump
Major Repairs (While Owned): Serpentine Belt
Estimated Annual Mileage: 12,500 (I love this car, I take it everytime I go somewhere w/o my wife/kids, my wife refers to it as, "The Death Trap," and will not drive/be a passenger in it unless she has no other choice)
Current Problems:
1.) The rear defrost does not work...at all.
2.) Neither the air conditioning, heat or defrost work at all unless they are on the third or fourth (of four) most powerful setting.
3.) The odometer (computer?) is slightly screwed up. It goes off and on randomly, and sometimes displays mileage that is complete nonsense. I have had as few as 120 miles on the vehicle and as many as 550k.
4.) The driver's side door will occasionally fail to close. The latch gets stuck. Popping it out with a screwdriver while holding the door handle up fixes it and lasts for a few weeks. It has never popped open while the car is in motion.
KBB Values: We'll call it, "Fair," condition because of the body. Private Party: $1800-$1900, Trade-In: $800-$900.
I love it!
Quote: WoldusWhat's the max repair bill that you would be willing to pay?
If I needed to take it to be repaired, or pay for the part if I was doing it myself?
I guess I would pay up to $1,000 per repair, $2,000 in a year, and about $5,000 more over the life of the vehicle to keep the beast going.
Old Cavaliers are hard to kill. The switchgear and accessories fail, but the drivetrain and suspension are pretty solid. Usually they rust out, but you aren't in the rust belt.
I'll say 225,000, but not 250,000. But no money, I'll never remember the bet.
Oddswise? 60/40 that it makes 200k, 40/60 on 225k. 10/90 on 250k.
Is the car driven daily? Is it regularly on the highway, or just around town? Is it driven at night? Do you drink and drive? Is it parked in a garage?
The broken odometer is a concern. How will you know when 300k actually rolls over? Given that you are not the original owner, and that the odometer has flashed 550k, the car could be past 300k already...
You could word the prop like "will the car make it to 200k before requiring a major repair (over $750)"? Exclude things like brakes.
was treated for most of its life. 160K? The drive shafts
are ready to go. Air and heat are ready to go, I'm
surprised the air still works. Get rid of it while it still
has some value, it will nickel and dime you to death.
Take the first $1500 and run down the street waving
it over your head shouting with glee..
Quote: EvenBobGet rid of it while it still
has some value, it will nickel and dime you to death.
Take the first $1500 and run down the street waving
it over your head shouting with glee..
...and skipping and dancing and shaking babies and kissing stranger's hands. Wait, I got that backwards...
I think you've already more than doubled its lifetime. 160k?! That’s unheard of round here. Give it to me for work and back and I’d kill it before the end of February.
Quote: MoscaAt 12,500 miles a year I'll have forgotten about this bet by the first resolution point.
Old Cavaliers are hard to kill. The switchgear and accessories fail, but the drivetrain and suspension are pretty solid. Usually they rust out, but you aren't in the rust belt.
I'll say 225,000, but not 250,000. But no money, I'll never remember the bet.
Oddswise? 60/40 that it makes 200k, 40/60 on 225k. 10/90 on 250k.
I like your analysis, and I'm not betting regardless...but being intimately familiar with the vehicle, I think my probability of hitting 200k is far, far, better. I think it's kind of a crapshoot after that, though, so I'd go with your odds after that.
Quote: Mission146I like your analysis, and I'm not betting regardless...but being intimately familiar with the vehicle, I think my probability of hitting 200k is far, far, better.
You can dump money a into pile of nuts and bolts
and make it go 200K, I don't understand your
point.
Quote: AyecarumbaAs you are willing to spend $5,000, the only thing that will stop your car from getting to 300k is a catastrophic wreck. If you were to drop that much money into the engine and transmission now, it would certainly go another 12 years.
Is the car driven daily? Is it regularly on the highway, or just around town? Is it driven at night? Do you drink and drive? Is it parked in a garage?
The broken odometer is a concern. How will you know when 300k actually rolls over? Given that you are not the original owner, and that the odometer has flashed 550k, the car could be past 300k already...
1st Paragraph: Keep in mind that $5,000 is over the life of the vehicle. It would be $1,000 on any individual repair and $2,000 in a year. This is based on how much I think I would have to do per month in car payments to have a sufficiently reliable secondary vehicle.
2nd Paragraph:
Daily: Basically. The only exception is the occasional day off where I happen not to go anywhere at all or by myself.
Highway/City: In terms of time, I think 60/40 Highway would be about right. That's mainly because I take it to Columbus when I go to Scioto Downs, so that's a 200+ mile swing in favor of highway each time, round-trip.
Night: 60% of my driving is at night, coming home from work, going to the casino, or going to WV for smokes.
Drink and Drive: Never.
Garage: About 40% of the time.
Third Paragraph---Odometer
It's not really broken, just glitchy. It doesn't flash incorrect data for very long, and when it does, it's for less than a minute. Furthermore, this is a problem that has only developed months after me already having ownership of the vehicle.
Quote: bbvk05Yeah, it all depends on what you will repair. Since you have affection for it and are willing to spend an irrational amount on repair then it's not going to be a good bet for people that don't know you.
You could word the prop like "will the car make it to 200k before requiring a major repair (over $750)"? Exclude things like brakes.
I don't think it's irrational because of value already received. I got it for $500.
Quote: AZDuffmanI'm not betting but you should put the engine and transmission size and type. Various gm engines blow at predictable times and that may affect their bet.
I'll add that information tomorrow.
in the last 20 years. I know at least 3 people that had
one and they were all junk. The components are crap
and are meant to fail. Its like a hole in the ground
you just keep throwing money into. Selling it at 50K
and making it somebody elses problem is what the
smart people do. They are big on blowing seals and
junk transmissions and loud engines with no power.
Quote: EvenBobYou can dump money a into pile of nuts and bolts
and make it go 200K, I don't understand your
point.
I got it for $500.
If I did not have it, then I would have to get a different car. If I bought one straight-up, with no warranty, then it would be a crapshoot and I got lucky on this crapshoot already. If I get one that has some sort of warranty left, then my cost per year should be about the same as just keeping this thing going as long as I can based on the parameters for how much I will spend on repairs given.
Quote: AZDuffmanI'm not betting but you should put the engine and transmission size and type. .
They all had mostly 2.2 4 bangers and sometimes the 2.4.
The tranny is always the same piece of junk. Kelly lists
this car at $1500 in the shape its in and thats being generous.
I'd say its closer to a grand. I had a niece sell her 98 in Jan
and it had 130K and was in perfect cosmetic condition and
she finally got $1600 for it, so a grand for yours isn't far off.
Let me be the first to tell you that...
Hmmm....
Here's something about the PT Cruiser that you didn't know...
That won't work....
Hmmm....
OK. No, not a car guy. It's cool-looking, though!
Quote: MonkeyMonkeyA Cavalier AND a PT Cruiser? You're really not a car guy are you?
I wasn't going to say anything, but dude.. PT Cruiser? I rented one
in Vegas and its the only car I ever returned and got another.
It was new, and the air couldn't keep up with the heat. And it was
gutless, I tried to pass somebody on the freeway and it couldn't
do it. I mean it could NOT get up enough speed to pass a car without
blocking the passing lane for 5min. They are oil burners and are
known to almost shut down when the air is turned on because the
engine is too small for the car.
I guess if you view the lack of power as a, "Problem," then that's definitely true. It has little to no power in terms of acceleration. That's almost never a problem, though, because I don't speed and am generally happy to be going as slow as the person in front of me...unless it is ridiculously slow. I always leave pretty early for stuff and am very punctual, so if I've got someone in front of me doing 55-60 in front of me when the limit is 65, I'm content just to go whatever speed they are going.
Quote: onenickelmiracleOne wreck and it's totaled. I don't think you'll pass 250,000 either way. 200,000 is probably not likely either since you don't drive it much and being old will be it's greatest weakness compared to being worn out.
I'm not sure where you get the latter part, I drive it almost daily.
Quote: Mission146I'm not sure where you get the latter part, I drive it almost daily.
I misunderstood you saying it was a secondary car as to imply less mileage than your favored car and obviously skimmed a bit to liberally.
Quote: Mission146I don't know, it's my understanding that PT Cruisers pre-2008 had a variety of problems,
They stopped selling them in the US in 2009 and
they went to Mexico and Canada. In 2010 they
stopped making them altogether.
Quote: onenickelmiracleMaybe some graphite might help your door. I would look for a good YT video out there to help with it since something else may need attention. For the rear view window get some Rainex anti fog-great stuff. Rainex is also a good way to not even need wipers when you only deal with rain.
Thanks, I should have probably used graphite powder on that door already. I never thought about the Rainex, but that's an idea for a few months from now. We've got snow and ice to deal with, atm, though.
Quote: EvenBobThey stopped selling them in the US in 2009 and
they went to Mexico and Canada. In 2010 they
stopped making them altogether.
I think you may have that backwards. In 2009, they announced that they were going to slowly dicontinue the model simply because the demand for the vehicle had been falling off, even prior to the recession. I forget the month, but later that year, they announced that they were discontinuing them completely in Mexico and Canada, but continuing to sell them in the U.S. The PT Cruiser ended production completely about a year later.
If they still made them, and I were presently in the market for a new car, I'd have to say I would definitely buy another PT Cruiser. I'm very happy with the vehicle, to be honest.
Quote: Mission146I think you may have that backwards.
Yup, they stopped them in Mexico and Canada first.
Quote: Mission146If they still made them, and I were presently in the market for a new car, I'd have to say I would definitely buy another PT Cruiser.
So you're the one. If they had only known..
As long as you maintain the oil (change it and check it) it'll easily make it to 250k...
And all of your fixes are easy with wrecking yard parts and some Haynes manual guidance...
If im not mistaken, that 2.2 is the same in the s10, good engine...
I thought perhaps you'd just had a bit of bad luck or judgement in car purchases but the Cobalt seals it - you're a crappy car buyer.
Quote: MonkeyMonkeyMaybe a better bet would be what kind of crappy car will you get when the Cavalier bites the dust...
I thought perhaps you'd just had a bit of bad luck or judgement in car purchases but the Cobalt seals it - you're a crappy car buyer.
First, thanks TimSpeed!
Monkeyx2, I never really had any problems with the Cobalt. I believe I went about 80k before trading it in and the only semi-serious repair was replcaing the vent-valve assembly. I also believe that the sway bar was starting to go, but that would have taken awhile.
Same thing, if it weren't for having kids and I was in the market for a new vehicle, I'd buy another Cobalt if they still made them.
Quote: rainmanI'm a subaru guy. I own and operate them pretty much for free. (Family connections) :) Missions hoopdie rates pretty damn good. http://autos.msn.com/research/vip/Reliability.aspx?year=1998&make=Chevrolet&model=Cavalier
Thank you, Rainman! I would have pointed that out, but I didn't want to be argumentative. If everyone wants to think the Cavalier is a PoS, they may certainly think that.
People may also see that the 2008 PT Cruiser scores perfect:
http://autos.msn.com/research/vip/Reliability.aspx?year=2008&make=Chrysler&model=PT%20Cruiser
The 2005 Chevy Cobalt also scores perfect, but with one Moderate problem:
http://autos.msn.com/research/vip/Reliability.aspx?year=2005&make=Chevrolet&model=Cobalt
Quote: Mission146Thank you, Rainman! I would have pointed that out, but I didn't want to be argumentative. If everyone wants to think the Cavalier is a PoS, they may certainly think that.
People may also see that the 2008 PT Cruiser scores perfect:
http://autos.msn.com/research/vip/Reliability.aspx?year=2008&make=Chrysler&model=PT%20Cruiser
The 2005 Chevy Cobalt also scores perfect, but with one Moderate problem:
http://autos.msn.com/research/vip/Reliability.aspx?year=2005&make=Chevrolet&model=Cobalt
What does Consumer Reports say about these cars?
Quote: 1BBWhat does Consumer Reports say about these cars?
I don't know, that site wants you to sign up.
2008 PT Cruiser:
4.x Stars:
http://www.edmunds.com/chrysler/pt-cruiser/2008/consumer-reviews.html
4 Stars:
http://autos.yahoo.com/chrysler/pt-cruiser/2008/reviews/
2005 Chevy Cobalt
4.5 Stars
http://www.edmunds.com/chevrolet/cobalt/2005/consumer-reviews.html
4 Stars
http://autos.yahoo.com/chevrolet/cobalt/2005/
Quote: rainmanI just looked at the cavalier. It gets good marks from everyone. I also asked my cousin who is an ASE master tech for 15 years he said the drive train in that car is really reliable. He says like subaru some of the longevity comes from the fact that they are so under powered they don't break or wear anything out.
Thank you, Rainman!
I think everyone should understand that I don't care about anything except reliability. I almost never exceed the speed limit, I only pass if the person in front of me is going ridiculously slow. I only accelerate hard if my life depends on my doing so...and that's only happened once.
I would also like to say that I loved the handling on the Cobalt and do on the Cavalier. The PT Cruiser is also nice and balanced around turns, but hard to park because of a poor turning radius.
Quote: Mission146
I think everyone should understand that I don't care about anything except reliability.
That still makes me wonder...
Good riddance! Worst discontinued cars for 2011 - Chevrolet Cobalt
I generally won't link to Wikipedia articles but this one references the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration:
Quote: Wiki
The third-generation Cavalier earned several low scores in crash tests by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Also, IIHS fatality risks statistics rated the Cavalier among the "Highest rates of driver deaths," with 150 (4 door) to 171 (2 door) driver deaths per million registered vehicle years. Average for the Cavalier class (small) was 103 (4 door) to 134 (2 door) driver deaths per million registered vehicle years.[9]
The IIHS gave the 1995-2005 Cavalier a "Poor" overall score in their frontal offset collision test
Link: Chevy Cavalier
And lastly: Chrysler comes in dead last in JD Power & Associates Reliability Survey
I honestly was just giving you some good natured ribbing about your car choices, but in reality these are mediocre vehicles at best. One reason Chryslers are so cheap is that they get the balance of the money you'd have spent on a better car in repair bills.
Quote: Mission146
I almost never exceed the speed limit, I only pass if the person in front of me is going ridiculously slow. I only accelerate hard if my life depends on my doing so...and that's only happened once.
I would also like to say that I loved the handling on the Cobalt and do on the Cavalier. The PT Cruiser is also nice and balanced around turns, but hard to park because of a poor turning radius.
Is it safe to assume that you've never driven a fairly high end Japanese or European car? I imagine even a high end American sports car would be night and day to the cars you're talking about. It's pretty clear from the statements you've made that you're not a car guy, and there's nothing wrong with that. I'm just saying if we ever need to drive somewhere together let's take my car. :)
That doesn't say anything specifically about the 2005 models, and it also makes some semi-complimentary remarks. In any event, I think my consumer reviews links for the 2005 Chevy Cobalt specifically trump what one article thinks.
Chevy Cavalier
What does safety and performance in front-end crash tests have to do with reliability? Besides, the difference in liklihood of dying in a crash in that vehicle v. a crash in some other vehicle is negligible.
Chrysler
Okay, Chrysler, but that's general. We're talking about a 2008 Chrysler PT Cruiser, not Chrysler on the whole.
Quote:Is it safe to assume that you've never driven a fairly high end Japanese or European car? I imagine even a high end American sports car would be night and day to the cars you're talking about. It's pretty clear from the statements you've made that you're not a car guy, and there's nothing wrong with that. I'm just saying if we ever need to drive somewhere together let's take my car. :)
I would not know if I have driven a fairly high-end Japanese or European car because I do not know what is or is not fairly high-end. My Mom owns and has owned a Hyundai Sonata, so I have driven two of those. I've driven a Honda Accord and I have driven a Toyota Corolla. I have owned none of those listed. The only European car I have ever driven is a Volkswagen Routan, that's the owner's minivan, so sometimes I have to take it to pick stuff up.
Should we ever go anywhere together, we can take any car you wish to take provided you are a cautious driver.
Quote: 1BBThese are the cars that are found on the lots of seedy used car dealers that only accept weekly cash payments. You will never see Accords, Camrys, Civics or Corrolas on these lots.
I am not in a position to either confirm nor deny that statement. I will take a look at said car lots the next time I happen to be near one.
Quote: 1BBThese are the cars that are found on the lots of seedy used car dealers that only accept weekly cash payments. You will never see Accords, Camrys, Civics or Corrolas on these lots.
Well, you will occasionally see them, but they are the exception not the rule.
Quote: Mission146
Okay, Chrysler, but that's general. We're talking about a 2008 Chrysler PT Cruiser, not Chrysler on the whole.
That's fine, I don't want to play link wars anyway.
Quote: Mission146
I would not know if I have driven a fairly high-end Japanese or European car because I do not know what is or is not fairly high-end. My Mom owns and has owned a Hyundai Sonata, so I have driven two of those. I've driven a Honda Accord and I have driven a Toyota Corolla. I have owned none of those listed. The only European car I have ever driven is a Volkswagen Routan, that's the owner's minivan, so sometimes I have to take it to pick stuff up.
It sounds like you haven't. Things like Accords are ok, but hardly high-end. I'm not sure anything Hyundai makes anything that could be considered high-end.
Quote: Mission146
Should we ever go anywhere together, we can take any car you wish to take provided you are a cautious driver.
LOL. We may need to make alternate arrangements then (based on the description of how you drive), but the thing is, in my car going 90 doesn't even feel fast, it's very smooth and quiet... unless the stereo is on. :)
Quote: MonkeyMonkey
It sounds like you haven't. Things like Accords are ok, but hardly high-end. I'm not sure anything Hyundai makes anything that could be considered high-end.
Probably not.
Quote:LOL. We may need to make alternate arrangements then (based on the description of how you drive), but the thing is, in my car going 90 doesn't even feel fast, it's very smooth and quiet... unless the stereo is on. :)
Speaking of which, what do you drive?
