AP Horseplayer?
June 23rd, 2012 at 7:45:06 AM
permalink
Lifelong horseplayer here. I grew up at Waterford Park (now Mountaineer Race Track), in Chester WV. Like everyone else, I would sometimes win, but would eventually lose money every year.
Five years ago, I developed a new strategy which resulted in profits each year. We are not talking about much money, only a few thousand dollars. It's not a "system" or anything like that. I specialize in first-time starters (horses making their debut races). Occasionally I will bet a second-timer as well. I only make WIN bets of $100, $300, or $500. Twice I have bet $1,000. Also, I don't make many bets. Sometimes I will make 3 or 4 bets per week. Sometimes I will go a month or more with no action.
I will use this thread as a diary of my action for the remainder of the year.
Five years ago, I developed a new strategy which resulted in profits each year. We are not talking about much money, only a few thousand dollars. It's not a "system" or anything like that. I specialize in first-time starters (horses making their debut races). Occasionally I will bet a second-timer as well. I only make WIN bets of $100, $300, or $500. Twice I have bet $1,000. Also, I don't make many bets. Sometimes I will make 3 or 4 bets per week. Sometimes I will go a month or more with no action.
I will use this thread as a diary of my action for the remainder of the year.
June 23rd, 2012 at 7:51:52 AM
permalink
Bet #1- Saturday, June 23, 2012
Calder, Race #8
$100 to WIN #3- Don'tmissmyact (5/1 ML)
YTD 0-0; $0
Calder, Race #8
$100 to WIN #3- Don'tmissmyact (5/1 ML)
YTD 0-0; $0
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:15:23 AM
permalink
Two year old gelding...
I don't like the idea of gelding a 2yo.
First time starter, should be a very unpredictable race. Workouts were nothing special. Top jock picked a different horse... I will be following this one from Arlington Park today, and will put a little on him to show.
Horseplayers are full of excuses. If someone has a big win pick, pick on that horse to place/show, and the horseplayer will have an excuse (missed the break, would have won instead of 2nd OR pace was too hot/cold)
I don't like the idea of gelding a 2yo.
First time starter, should be a very unpredictable race. Workouts were nothing special. Top jock picked a different horse... I will be following this one from Arlington Park today, and will put a little on him to show.
Horseplayers are full of excuses. If someone has a big win pick, pick on that horse to place/show, and the horseplayer will have an excuse (missed the break, would have won instead of 2nd OR pace was too hot/cold)
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:26:33 AM
permalink
Fins- all good points. Thanks.
No excuses from me- EVER. First-timers are notorious for poor starts, racing green, etc. It's goes with the territory, and I expect it. Ironically, my picks are most likely to finish LAST (yep, I have more horses finish last than any other position). The second most likely finish is FIRST. My long-term win rate is usually around 20%.
Good luck at Arlington today!
No excuses from me- EVER. First-timers are notorious for poor starts, racing green, etc. It's goes with the territory, and I expect it. Ironically, my picks are most likely to finish LAST (yep, I have more horses finish last than any other position). The second most likely finish is FIRST. My long-term win rate is usually around 20%.
Good luck at Arlington today!
June 23rd, 2012 at 1:45:37 PM
permalink
Quote: WupperBet #1- Saturday, June 23, 2012
Calder, Race #8
$100 to WIN #3- Don'tmissmyact (5/1 ML)
YTD 0-0; $0
Bet #1 (Result)
#3- Don'tmissmyact finished 5th at odds of 8.30/1.
Bet $100 / Return $0 / Net (-$100)
YTD 0-1 0% / (-$100)
June 24th, 2012 at 7:51:40 AM
permalink
You say your horses finish last more often than first? You have an interesting system.
I was at AP, saw that I missed Calder 8, and was upset. Looked it up on my phone, and was glad I missed it.
Do you try to look back at races and figure out what went wrong, or are you confident enough in your system to not care?
I was at AP, saw that I missed Calder 8, and was upset. Looked it up on my phone, and was glad I missed it.
Do you try to look back at races and figure out what went wrong, or are you confident enough in your system to not care?
June 24th, 2012 at 8:43:01 AM
permalink
Put me down as a non-believer. Past performances are not always a true indicator of the future. Picking a horse for last is extremely difficult to do. For many years my dad, me , and my buddy Joe would decide on who would by the hot dogs with an unusual bet.
Each of us would pick a horse for last. Whoever's horse finished further from last, he had to buy the hot dogs. Nothing like having your pick for last beat the horse you had money on. LOL
And to pick a horse for last among 1st and 2nd time starters, etc. NO WAY.
What is deciding factor on betting $100, $200, $300 ?
If you could actually choose a horse to finish last more than 20% of the time, especially 5 to 1 or less, thereby ensuring he would not hit the board, dutching other horses would be very profitable. I just don't think you can do it.
No disrespect meant.
Each of us would pick a horse for last. Whoever's horse finished further from last, he had to buy the hot dogs. Nothing like having your pick for last beat the horse you had money on. LOL
And to pick a horse for last among 1st and 2nd time starters, etc. NO WAY.
What is deciding factor on betting $100, $200, $300 ?
If you could actually choose a horse to finish last more than 20% of the time, especially 5 to 1 or less, thereby ensuring he would not hit the board, dutching other horses would be very profitable. I just don't think you can do it.
No disrespect meant.
June 24th, 2012 at 8:46:25 AM
permalink
Not only did your first pick not finish last, in a field of 8 ,at no point was he ever last !
June 24th, 2012 at 9:17:50 AM
permalink
I'll wait for a decent sample size before evaluating OP's ability
June 24th, 2012 at 9:28:08 AM
permalink
Same here, just stating my view before the results. Hindsight is always 20/20.
Just that I have seen this result too often before. If a guy bets black or red at Roulette and wins on a small sample, he thinks he was just lucky.
Similar thing happens to a horse player, or any sports bettor, and he thinks he has discovered something worthwhile.
If you do not have enough money to move the line in sports or inside knowledge at the track, have FUN. Just don't expect to get rich !
Just that I have seen this result too often before. If a guy bets black or red at Roulette and wins on a small sample, he thinks he was just lucky.
Similar thing happens to a horse player, or any sports bettor, and he thinks he has discovered something worthwhile.
If you do not have enough money to move the line in sports or inside knowledge at the track, have FUN. Just don't expect to get rich !
June 24th, 2012 at 11:16:33 AM
permalink
Wow! You guys are tough. I'm 0 for 1 with a 8/1 shot. I must really suck!?!?
Lets wait until the end of 2012.......if I fail to make $$, let me have it.
Lets wait until the end of 2012.......if I fail to make $$, let me have it.
June 24th, 2012 at 12:09:40 PM
permalink
I think you will find most guys here encouraging anybody who thinks they have an edge. But we are RESULTS oriented.
First pick, neither first, nor last. Per your own figures 1st or last occurs 40% of the time. I seriously doubt that.
Hopefully you will prove me wrong. If you just wanted praise, you have come to the wrong site.
But if you want to post your results and stand by them, WELCOME.
Just remember , money talks and bullshit walks LOL
First pick, neither first, nor last. Per your own figures 1st or last occurs 40% of the time. I seriously doubt that.
Hopefully you will prove me wrong. If you just wanted praise, you have come to the wrong site.
But if you want to post your results and stand by them, WELCOME.
Just remember , money talks and bullshit walks LOL
June 24th, 2012 at 12:28:21 PM
permalink
A few notes on first-time starters that finish last:
First-timers break poorly (all the time). Often so poor that they lose all chance at the start. Sometimes, jockeys will not ask the horse for any run, and will let them leisurely jog around the track....and finish last. Watch for this and you'll see.
I love it when this happens to a well regarded first-timer. Often they will re-enter 10-14 days later, and offer tremendous value. Even better, they re-enter 30 days later with a few interim gate works. Each day, I scan the charts at DRF, looking for first-timers that were post-time favorites, and were LAST at every call.
First-timers break poorly (all the time). Often so poor that they lose all chance at the start. Sometimes, jockeys will not ask the horse for any run, and will let them leisurely jog around the track....and finish last. Watch for this and you'll see.
I love it when this happens to a well regarded first-timer. Often they will re-enter 10-14 days later, and offer tremendous value. Even better, they re-enter 30 days later with a few interim gate works. Each day, I scan the charts at DRF, looking for first-timers that were post-time favorites, and were LAST at every call.
June 24th, 2012 at 12:34:45 PM
permalink
By the way, Don'tmissmyact (yesterday's pick) was indeed LAST for much of the race. Sadly, the jockey asked the horse for run entering the stretch and passed a few late.
June 24th, 2012 at 12:34:45 PM
permalink
OK But we are talking about you finding that first time starter before he finishes last, are we not ?
And how many plays did you bet last year, amounts on each, etc. And if we throw out the highest 3 wins and the lowest priced 3 wins, then what ?
What was your bet on this last play ? Real or imagined money accepted LOL
And how many plays did you bet last year, amounts on each, etc. And if we throw out the highest 3 wins and the lowest priced 3 wins, then what ?
What was your bet on this last play ? Real or imagined money accepted LOL
June 24th, 2012 at 1:04:28 PM
permalink
Do any of you horse bettors analyze jockey standings and adjust for that? I'm not a huge race bettor, but I go to the local track (Fairmount Park) maybe 6x a year and always run a spreadsheet on the jockey standings YTD and last two weeks, as well as the trainer standings YTD.
At Fairmount the last couple years there have been two jockeys that have consistently been in the money more than the rest of the pack. They are up close to 60%, compared to 25-40% for the rest of the jockey pack.
The only problem is that they tend to get the favorites to ride, so payoffs are usually fairly low. If I see one of them riding a horse listed at higher than 4:1 or 5:1, it's an obvious flag that I need to seriously look at putting money on that horse.
Just curious how involved other race bettors get.
At Fairmount the last couple years there have been two jockeys that have consistently been in the money more than the rest of the pack. They are up close to 60%, compared to 25-40% for the rest of the jockey pack.
The only problem is that they tend to get the favorites to ride, so payoffs are usually fairly low. If I see one of them riding a horse listed at higher than 4:1 or 5:1, it's an obvious flag that I need to seriously look at putting money on that horse.
Just curious how involved other race bettors get.
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
June 24th, 2012 at 3:16:14 PM
permalink
Fairmount, lol.
Favorites are always pretty safe there.
Overall, I tend to not use a jockey to get me to pick a horse. But if a bad jockey is on a horse, I'll be less likely to bet on it.
Favorites are always pretty safe there.
Overall, I tend to not use a jockey to get me to pick a horse. But if a bad jockey is on a horse, I'll be less likely to bet on it.
June 25th, 2012 at 8:56:21 AM
permalink
oops.
June 25th, 2012 at 9:46:12 AM
permalink
Quote: WupperA few notes on first-time starters that finish last:
First-timers break poorly (all the time). Often so poor that they lose all chance at the start. Sometimes, jockeys will not ask the horse for any run, and will let them leisurely jog around the track....and finish last. Watch for this and you'll see.
I love it when this happens to a well regarded first-timer. Often they will re-enter 10-14 days later, and offer tremendous value. Even better, they re-enter 30 days later with a few interim gate works. Each day, I scan the charts at DRF, looking for first-timers that were post-time favorites, and were LAST at every call.
That strategy makes sense. But betting on first time starters without seeing them seems hopelessly impossible.
I don't want to be negative, because I wish everyone the best.
June 25th, 2012 at 9:48:57 AM
permalink
And your method for selecting your last play ? You obviously did not get him from scanning a chart ?
June 25th, 2012 at 10:13:42 AM
permalink
Quote: buzzpaffAnd your method for selecting your last play ? You obviously did not get him from scanning a chart ?
I study breeding, trainers, and owners:
Breeding- some sires are more likely to produce offspring that win at first asking.
Trainers- some trainers have demonstrated the ability to get a horse ready to win at first asking.
Owners- some owners WANT their horses win at first asking.
Entrants must meet all three requirements for me to make a bet. If an entrant meets all three requirements AND the exact sire, owner, and trainer combination have won in the past, I increase my bet.
The money is DEFINITELY not worth the time, and effort I put into this. I don't work (retired at 41), and it's something I enjoy. The money is simply a means of keeping score.
June 26th, 2012 at 10:02:23 PM
permalink
Quote: FinsRuleFairmount, lol.
I know, it's a lousy little place - only 8 races 3 days a week for 4 months and 2 days a week for two more months. Low purses, smaller number of entries per race, old infrastructure, and an odd assortment of patrons. I was amazed when I went to Churchill Downs a few years back and realized how much better it was than Fairmount.
That being said, it is the only race track anywhere close to me, and it's only 10-12 minutes from where I work in downtown StL.
"Bite my Glorious Golden Ass!" - Bender Bending Rodriguez
June 27th, 2012 at 4:20:13 AM
permalink
I lived in St. Louis for 4 years, and I was there probably 5 times a year. I love the place for what it is. An old, grungy, hick (or as they say in St. Louis 'hoosier') filled place.
I'll try to get to Fairmount once next year in April if I can make a trip to see a Blues playoff game.
I'll try to get to Fairmount once next year in April if I can make a trip to see a Blues playoff game.
June 27th, 2012 at 5:33:43 AM
permalink
Quote: WupperI don't work (retired at 41)
Forget your horse picking system!!!! Give us your job picking system!!!! OR INVESTING SYSTEM!!!! Well Done!!!!
June 30th, 2012 at 3:22:41 AM
permalink
Bet #2- Saturday, June 30, 2012
Calder, Race #8
$100 to WIN #7- Too Fast to Pass (6/1 ML)
YTD 0-1 / 0% / (-$100)
Calder, Race #8
$100 to WIN #7- Too Fast to Pass (6/1 ML)
YTD 0-1 / 0% / (-$100)
June 30th, 2012 at 7:37:30 AM
permalink
Apparently you love 2yo geldings. Good luck. I guess he's going to finish first or last, eh?
June 30th, 2012 at 8:27:20 AM
permalink
I will lay even money he is neither !
June 30th, 2012 at 1:05:12 PM
permalink
Alright, I have $1 WPS on him! Let's win this thing!
June 30th, 2012 at 3:17:38 PM
permalink
Second all the way. Never first or last at any call !
June 30th, 2012 at 4:25:32 PM
permalink
Quote: WupperBet #2- Saturday, June 30, 2012
Calder, Race #8
$100 to WIN #7- Too Fast to Pass (6/1 ML)
YTD 0-1 / 0% / (-$100)
Bet #2 (Result)
#7- Too Fast to Pass finished 2nd at odds of 8.90/1.
Bet $100 / Return $0 / Net (-$100)
YTD 0-2 / 0% / (-$200)
June 30th, 2012 at 4:33:46 PM
permalink
Have my eye on another horse entered at CRC tomorrow. Be My Love is the sister of today's horse (To Fast to Pass).
Not a prime play, but worth another minimum bet of $100. Will finalize tomorrow.
Not a prime play, but worth another minimum bet of $100. Will finalize tomorrow.
July 1st, 2012 at 4:42:09 AM
permalink
Bet #3- Sunday, July 1, 2012
Calder, Race #3
$100 to WIN #5- Be My Love (4/1 ML)
YTD 0-2 / 0% / (-$200)
Calder, Race #3
$100 to WIN #5- Be My Love (4/1 ML)
YTD 0-2 / 0% / (-$200)
July 1st, 2012 at 11:07:37 AM
permalink
I bet that one to show. Thanks!
July 1st, 2012 at 11:29:51 AM
permalink
Get your money Finn. Show......
Never 1st or last at any call. That over 20% last or 20% first not exactly true so far.
Is Calder the only track in play for now ??
Never 1st or last at any call. That over 20% last or 20% first not exactly true so far.
Is Calder the only track in play for now ??
July 1st, 2012 at 11:40:47 AM
permalink
Quote: WupperBet #3- Sunday, July 1, 2012
Calder, Race #3
$100 to WIN #5- Be My Love (4/1 ML)
YTD 0-2 / 0% / (-$200)
Bet #3 (Result)
#5- Be My Love finished 3rd at odds of 5.20/1.
Bet $100 / Return $0 / Net (-$300)
YTD 3-0-1-1 / 0% / (-$300)
July 1st, 2012 at 11:42:09 AM
permalink
Is this thread to be all $100 flat bets? Just curious.
July 1st, 2012 at 11:52:55 AM
permalink
It looked like he was going to pull away and win. He got right next to the other horse, and shrunk back. John Dooley would say he was running in reverse.
July 1st, 2012 at 12:10:17 PM
permalink
Wupper,
Thank you for the very interesting thread!
I know that you are only making win bets, but it might be additionally informative to include the place and show payoffs on your pick, with each result.
Thanks!
Thank you for the very interesting thread!
I know that you are only making win bets, but it might be additionally informative to include the place and show payoffs on your pick, with each result.
Thanks!
July 2nd, 2012 at 7:08:21 AM
permalink
Tupp- Thanks for the comment. I will include mutuel payoffs going forward. Here are the first three:
Don'tmissmyact- -----, -----, -----
Too Fast to Pass- -----, $7.00, $3.40
Be My Love- -----, -----, $4.40
Of course, the only payoff I care about is WIN, and I'm 0 for 3. I remain confident I will show a profit at the end of 2012. Time will tell.
No plays today (Monday), or tomorrow. Currently studying a few for 4th of July.....
Don'tmissmyact- -----, -----, -----
Too Fast to Pass- -----, $7.00, $3.40
Be My Love- -----, -----, $4.40
Of course, the only payoff I care about is WIN, and I'm 0 for 3. I remain confident I will show a profit at the end of 2012. Time will tell.
No plays today (Monday), or tomorrow. Currently studying a few for 4th of July.....
July 2nd, 2012 at 8:17:08 AM
permalink
Quote: buzzpaffGet your money Finn. Show......
Never 1st or last at any call. That over 20% last or 20% first not exactly true so far.
Is Calder the only track in play for now ??
Given he's made 3 or 4 bets, would be hard for it to be so. Give it time, eh?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
July 2nd, 2012 at 11:33:14 AM
permalink
Absolutely. just inquiring as to the method of selection. Do I believe he won last year. ? Absolutely. Do I believe his horses win more than 20% of the time? Absolutely.
Do I think his selections ran last more that first ? Absolutely not.
He stated he scans the charts looking for first time starters, favorite, who ran last ? If that works at Calder, why would he not scan charts from all the tracks. It's Free at Equibase !
First selection he remarked that his selection would have ran last had the jockey not passed 2 horses in the stretch ?
I believe he posted here to affirm his selections. Time will indeed tell. But so far he is 0 for 3 on having a selection 1st or last.
His selection method, even allowing just 20% wins, not more, and only 20% for last, not even more, Says the result of a horse not finishing 1st or last is 60%. Chances of 0 for 3 first or last is 21.6%. The hole is getting deeper and deeper. LOL
I hope he proves me wrong. I could use the money.
GOOD LUCK SIR !!
Do I think his selections ran last more that first ? Absolutely not.
He stated he scans the charts looking for first time starters, favorite, who ran last ? If that works at Calder, why would he not scan charts from all the tracks. It's Free at Equibase !
First selection he remarked that his selection would have ran last had the jockey not passed 2 horses in the stretch ?
I believe he posted here to affirm his selections. Time will indeed tell. But so far he is 0 for 3 on having a selection 1st or last.
His selection method, even allowing just 20% wins, not more, and only 20% for last, not even more, Says the result of a horse not finishing 1st or last is 60%. Chances of 0 for 3 first or last is 21.6%. The hole is getting deeper and deeper. LOL
I hope he proves me wrong. I could use the money.
GOOD LUCK SIR !!
July 2nd, 2012 at 3:20:13 PM
permalink
BuzzPaff-
Over the last 5 years, my selections have finished first 20% of the time at average odds 8/1. My selections have finished last 22% of the time. The last place finishers are a direct result of the types of horses I play- FIRST-TIME STARTERS. They are notorious for breaking slowly and racing erratically. This is a HUGE reason why I can make money. Most people will not bet a first-time starter.
FACT- firsters finish last more than any other position, and since I bet firsters, my selections will naturally finish last more than any other position. Go ahead and download a couple months of charts and you'll see I'm right.
I DO download charts from every race in US and Canada (not just Calder). I use the far superior product at DRF (also free).
It's clear you're not a "horse racing" guy. Your lack of knowledge is obvious. I enjoy reading many of your posts, you are often funny and clever. Other times you are a TROLL.
Bottom line- I made ONLY three plays, two of them outran their odds, and the third broke slowly (as they often do); and all you want to do is break my balls.
I didn't make any crazy guarantees or anything. I simply wanted to use this thread as a diary for my 2012 selections. I didn't expect the never-ending attacks. I still think it was a good idea to post picks, but I think I chose the wrong forum. I will do it at another forum.
For the rest of you- I have my first prime selection ($500 bet for me) running at Delaware on Wednesday 7/4. Feel free to PM me and I will provide the details. I'm not going to post it here- It is going to WIN. BuzzPaff will just want to criticize the fact that it didn't finish last.
Thanks, Wupper OUT
Over the last 5 years, my selections have finished first 20% of the time at average odds 8/1. My selections have finished last 22% of the time. The last place finishers are a direct result of the types of horses I play- FIRST-TIME STARTERS. They are notorious for breaking slowly and racing erratically. This is a HUGE reason why I can make money. Most people will not bet a first-time starter.
FACT- firsters finish last more than any other position, and since I bet firsters, my selections will naturally finish last more than any other position. Go ahead and download a couple months of charts and you'll see I'm right.
I DO download charts from every race in US and Canada (not just Calder). I use the far superior product at DRF (also free).
It's clear you're not a "horse racing" guy. Your lack of knowledge is obvious. I enjoy reading many of your posts, you are often funny and clever. Other times you are a TROLL.
Bottom line- I made ONLY three plays, two of them outran their odds, and the third broke slowly (as they often do); and all you want to do is break my balls.
I didn't make any crazy guarantees or anything. I simply wanted to use this thread as a diary for my 2012 selections. I didn't expect the never-ending attacks. I still think it was a good idea to post picks, but I think I chose the wrong forum. I will do it at another forum.
For the rest of you- I have my first prime selection ($500 bet for me) running at Delaware on Wednesday 7/4. Feel free to PM me and I will provide the details. I'm not going to post it here- It is going to WIN. BuzzPaff will just want to criticize the fact that it didn't finish last.
Thanks, Wupper OUT
July 2nd, 2012 at 3:32:43 PM
permalink
Quote: WupperBuzzPaff-
Over the last 5 years, my selections have finished first 20% of the time at average odds 8/1. My selections have finished last 22% of the time. The last place finishers are a direct result of the types of horses I play- FIRST-TIME STARTERS. They are notorious for breaking slowly and racing erratically. This is a HUGE reason why I can make money. Most people will not bet a first-time starter.
FACT- firsters finish last more than any other position, and since I bet firsters, my selections will naturally finish last more than any other position. Go ahead and download a couple months of charts and you'll see I'm right.
I DO download charts from every race in US and Canada (not just Calder). I use the far superior product at DRF (also free).
It's clear you're not a "horse racing" guy. Your lack of knowledge is obvious. I enjoy reading many of your posts, you are often funny and clever. Other times you are a TROLL.
Bottom line- I made ONLY three plays, two of them outran their odds, and the third broke slowly (as they often do); and all you want to do is break my balls.
I didn't make any crazy guarantees or anything. I simply wanted to use this thread as a diary for my 2012 selections. I didn't expect the never-ending attacks. I still think it was a good idea to post picks, but I think I chose the wrong forum. I will do it at another forum.
For the rest of you- I have my first prime selection ($500 bet for me) running at Delaware on Wednesday 7/4. Feel free to PM me and I will provide the details. I'm not going to post it here- It is going to WIN. BuzzPaff will just want to criticize the fact that it didn't finish last.
Thanks, Wupper OUT
Please learn to ignore Buzz, the rest of us have. I am interested in following your picks.
July 2nd, 2012 at 3:38:56 PM
permalink
Gee Whiz, why the hell did you not post your selection methods at the start of this thread?
Since all 3 selections so far raced at Calder, I thought my question was a fair one.
Not posting your selection does not exactly befit a diary.
Sometimes I troll to get results, like this thread.
If you are afraid to post because of my criticism, then this will be my last post on this thread.
Thus having removed any reason for you not to post your choices at Delaware and all future picks.
Since this is my last post, I will argue 2 points. You need not reply if intimidated by prospect I will not abide by my promise to not
post in the future.\
I can be a little dumb at times, but I am a man of my word.
This is my last post on this thread.
As for most people not betting a first time starter, I beg to differ.
In the 1950's and 60's I often carried big bets to the tack for a bookie. Most were on 1st time starters. If they went off odds on, I was instructed to bet the money place. If the horse ran first and prices were 3.60 3.20 2.60 The bookies lost $400 on a $1,000 bet.
But if the horse ran second, the bookie cleared $3200. You do the math LOL
You need to clarify most first time starters will finish last more than any other position. Considering the large number of races with all first time starters, must get crowd2d back there in last place.
I am sure you mean bet downs or just firsters in against prior runners, or something.
You did not mean to say that first time starters finish last more than any other position.
Since this is my last post, I will end by saying GOOD LUCK !!!
Since all 3 selections so far raced at Calder, I thought my question was a fair one.
Not posting your selection does not exactly befit a diary.
Sometimes I troll to get results, like this thread.
If you are afraid to post because of my criticism, then this will be my last post on this thread.
Thus having removed any reason for you not to post your choices at Delaware and all future picks.
Since this is my last post, I will argue 2 points. You need not reply if intimidated by prospect I will not abide by my promise to not
post in the future.\
I can be a little dumb at times, but I am a man of my word.
This is my last post on this thread.
As for most people not betting a first time starter, I beg to differ.
In the 1950's and 60's I often carried big bets to the tack for a bookie. Most were on 1st time starters. If they went off odds on, I was instructed to bet the money place. If the horse ran first and prices were 3.60 3.20 2.60 The bookies lost $400 on a $1,000 bet.
But if the horse ran second, the bookie cleared $3200. You do the math LOL
You need to clarify most first time starters will finish last more than any other position. Considering the large number of races with all first time starters, must get crowd2d back there in last place.
I am sure you mean bet downs or just firsters in against prior runners, or something.
You did not mean to say that first time starters finish last more than any other position.
Since this is my last post, I will end by saying GOOD LUCK !!!
July 2nd, 2012 at 3:44:15 PM
permalink
- I'm interested in knowing your picks, I'm just not interested enough to PM you. I'll be at Arlington on 7/4, and in the twinspires.com handicapping contest that day. You should try it.
- Buzz is a good guy, and knowledgable about horses. Give him a chance.
- I don't bet first time starters to win (I'll put them in bottom half of exactas, trifectas). If there's a bunch of them in a race, I really just won't bet the race at all.
- Buzz is a good guy, and knowledgable about horses. Give him a chance.
- I don't bet first time starters to win (I'll put them in bottom half of exactas, trifectas). If there's a bunch of them in a race, I really just won't bet the race at all.
July 2nd, 2012 at 6:37:35 PM
permalink
My guess for Wupper's Delaware Park pick:
Race 7 - Just a Wildflower #6 - 6/1
OR
Race 1 - Marstons Mills #8 - 6/1
Race 7 - Just a Wildflower #6 - 6/1
OR
Race 1 - Marstons Mills #8 - 6/1
July 2nd, 2012 at 6:38:52 PM
permalink
And here are my picks for the 7/4 twinspires.com contest. Top 25 advance to the next round:
Race 1 - She's Always Hot - 7 - 10/1 - Belmont 7
Race 2 - Peace Preserver - 9 - 4/1 - Monmouth 8
Race 3 - Frolic's Revenge - 8 - 8/5 - Calder 9
Race 4 - Charmed by Danger - 4 - 8/5 - Monmouth 9
Race 5 - Powerful Zen - 7 - 6/1 - Arlington Park 3
Race 6 - Queen's Plate Kitten - 3 - 6/1 - Belmont 9
Race 7 - Lubash - 4 - 5/1 - Monmouth 10
Race 8 - Easy Street - 3 - 12/1 - Belmont 10
Race 1 - She's Always Hot - 7 - 10/1 - Belmont 7
Race 2 - Peace Preserver - 9 - 4/1 - Monmouth 8
Race 3 - Frolic's Revenge - 8 - 8/5 - Calder 9
Race 4 - Charmed by Danger - 4 - 8/5 - Monmouth 9
Race 5 - Powerful Zen - 7 - 6/1 - Arlington Park 3
Race 6 - Queen's Plate Kitten - 3 - 6/1 - Belmont 9
Race 7 - Lubash - 4 - 5/1 - Monmouth 10
Race 8 - Easy Street - 3 - 12/1 - Belmont 10
July 2nd, 2012 at 8:17:54 PM
permalink
Wupper,
I have enjoyed your insightful observations, and I, too, am very interested in your continuation of this thread.
Please keep posting your picks and results.
I have enjoyed your insightful observations, and I, too, am very interested in your continuation of this thread.
Please keep posting your picks and results.
July 2nd, 2012 at 8:56:29 PM
permalink
Agreed, I am a horse player and like to hear and see your thought process. I would like to see your posts continue.
July 2nd, 2012 at 9:54:12 PM
permalink
I hope you will come back and continue this thread.....its a good one. I am a long time player and specialize in maiden and nw2 type races. I don't often play firsters but I make exceptions and hit two in a row the other day at CD, ONE AT 24-1. I was wondering if you use the tomlinson numbers at all.
