Irrefutable Odds Rigging in Poker Stars

Hi,

I am an experienced poker player, both online and off, and have made a reasonable amount of money in both. I have read many articles on poker strategy and have an excellent understanding of proabilities, pot odds, etc etc.

I play a lot on the smaller buy in Full Tilt tourney tables, mainly $10 - $22 buy-in and finish in the money on average 25%, my hands are always over time consistently average, some tournaments are better than others but I always receive hole cards that average out over time. To try something different I decided to play Poker Stars, again in the smaller money tournmaents with $5 - $10 buy ins and I was absolutely shocked by the change in odds between FT and Poker Stars. I played many 100s of hands on Poker Stars which should, over time, give me even probability of picking up any hole cards. I played the same game I always play (very tight aggressive) and to my amazement in many 100s of hands I picked up the most dreadful sequence of cards that in my opinion defy probability. It was as if there was an algorithm pre-programmed in the Poker Stars hand dealing that would only give poor combinations of cards.

Whether it is coincidence or not I had signed up with their promotional code that gave me all of my money back up to a value of $600, in my opinion Poker Stars had engineered these tournaments so that I would not be able to claim my initial money back, by blocking me from winning any tournaments.

I am a VERY experienced card player, not just in poker, and this was extremenly unusual behaviour, I re-paid my money a number of times only to find the same result again and again. Now I have returned to Full Tilt Poker and I find the odds are back up to the normal level I would expect, on average about 1 hand in 10 which is what I would expect.

I think it would be a good idea for someone to investigate the algorithms poker companies are using to generate "random" hands and whether or not there is some element of rigging or unfair play involved, I am not just another bitter user who has gone into tilt and needs a way of venting frustration, I am genuinely concerned that something is not quite right with random card generation.

Please advise on whether this is something that can be investigated, I have read many other forum posts that suggest the same as I am suggesting from what appear to be good, solid players who are being cheated by the poker companies.

Many thanks,

Alex

Somebody here (possibly me if no one else is willing) could look into this, but here is what you need to provide us with:

-A record of every single hand. Preferably in Excel format. It is very important that you record every hand!

-A sampling of at least 10,000 hands. You see, if you want to evaluate just the hole cards, there are 1,326 possible combinations (52*51/2 since order does not matter) alone. Obviously, hundreds of hands isn't going to cut it. In fact, 10,000 hands isn't really a credible enough sample, but its a start and wouldn't be too difficult for you to reach. Stick to your hands only (in others word, don't include the hands of other players in the same data).

-Other information would be useful, such as date/time, table type, etc, but it isn't really necessary at this point. Just focus on gathering the above and if there is indication of cheating, you can gather more info later.

Why would Pokerstars want to rig a $5 tournament? They make their money from the rake so there is no reason to do that. They make the same money no matter who wins. Thus sounds like yet another of the countless sore losers you see on poker sites who are desperately looking for something to blame for their loss.

Quote: Aussie

Why would Pokerstars want to rig a $5 tournament? They make their money from the rake so there is no reason to do that. They make the same money no matter who wins. Thus sounds like yet another of the countless sore losers you see on poker sites who are desperately looking for something to blame for their loss.

To rig a $5 tourney would be like coutnerfitting ones. Though PS did catch someone colluding in a $5 tourney and gave me my $5 back. This is once in easily 600+ chances.

But again, why rig a tourney or even cash games since the room gets the same profit no matter what and has a vested interest in dealing a square game.

PokerStars does have a vested interest if they gave a user a free amount to start with. To reduce the loss on this promotion, they could rig the game.

But the other posters are correct: it would take tens of thousands of hands to prove beyond a reasonable amount the rigging is going on.

Quote: boymimbo

PokerStars does have a vested interest if they gave a user a free amount to start with. To reduce the loss on this promotion, they could rig the game.

But the other posters are correct: it would take tens of thousands of hands to prove beyond a reasonable amount the rigging is going on.

But that just means that his money (that he has to play) goes to a player who can cash it out as real money. They are taking their promotional chips (which, like I said, probably require a lot of play) and then, by giving him bad cards, sending them to a player who could cash them out immediately. If anything, the fix would be in THE OTHER WAY. Force him to play a lot, getting other people's money while the chips are still sticky, then bleed away with rakes in a fair game. Both ways don't make too much sense though. The only way they could fix it is if they were having an associate win all the money from these players and dumping it back to the company. Seems very far fetched, and again, so complicated that someone would have blown the whistle by now.

If the company wanted to fix the game and maximize returns, the best way would be to give everyone an assortment of hands that would get the max rake in every pot possible, but not much more in each pot. If someone wins too many big pots, they'll cash out, and if they lose too many, they won't return. So the best way to "fix" a poker room? Make it as fair as possible. Then you have a random distribution of hands. It's like those people that say they were cheated because of their bad beat. The owners don't want that...they only want the pot to get as big as the max rake! The rest is just moving money that they aren't getting a piece of.

...unless the winner of the questionable hands was a bot.

Quote: cardshark

Somebody here (possibly me if no one else is willing) could look into this, but here is what you need to provide us with:

-A record of every single hand. Preferably in Excel format. It is very important that you record every hand!

-A sampling of at least 10,000 hands. You see, if you want to evaluate just the hole cards, there are 1,326 possible combinations (52*51/2 since order does not matter) alone. Obviously, hundreds of hands isn't going to cut it. In fact, 10,000 hands isn't really a credible enough sample, but its a start and wouldn't be too difficult for you to reach. Stick to your hands only (in others word, don't include the hands of other players in the same data).

-Other information would be useful, such as date/time, table type, etc, but it isn't really necessary at this point. Just focus on gathering the above and if there is indication of cheating, you can gather more info later.

I couldn't have said it better myself. It takes data and statistics to make a case for cheating, not adjectives.

I played routinely in the $1 NL tourney games at PS. From 02 until UIGEA. I never signed on for any bonus, and refused the offers of all but an initial 20% upto 100 bonus. I will say that during the first 100 tourneys ($100 deposit yielded $120 in play) I had awful holes... I literally folded easily 95% of the time, and never folded a winner. I was black-screened twice. Though I didn't have stats, the games were front-loaded negative bias (play a long time to remove the losses) I have strongly suspected that the PRNG takes attributes relating to the Customer statistics of rounds played and action button pressed, along with ranking of player in the database. IMHO this is an absolute NO-NO, and invites robotic play. I would like to see Jacobsen pull the in-use PRNG's and compare to the PRNG given to them.

BTW, I do agree with OP... I would invite any Players to attempt the TOP46 + Q-10 off suit opens, all others fold. See how far and how many you get. (I know thats 10-handed and PS is 9-Handed). I would also note that PS on many occasions plays like a SWEEPSTAKES and not a poker tournament.

JMHO

Im I the only poker player here who plays online, gets a bad run of cards, and DOESNT automatically think the site is screwing me?

you say youre and "experienced poker player online and off" you you should know about being card dead. Do you complain at live gimes because you get a bad run? Just because you add a computer into the mix doesnt mean its an unfair game straight away. Yes, there are ways of manipulating it, as proved in the UltimateBet scandal, but for the most part, a bad run is a bad run, be it at a live table or virtual.

\endrant

Quote: NandB

...I was black-screened twice.

Black-screened?

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Black-screened?

Maybe he got angry and hit the power button on his comp.

No, IE suddenly went black-screen. I could close, reopen, login, and resume play. The 2nd time it happened, I couldn't enter the tournament, but could play elsewhere. The bad thing about both instances was that I was having a good game.

However, after the bonus period of 120 games, I never had a problem. And I was never told what happened, and why it did.

Quote: NandB

... I was never told what happened, and why it did.

Hmmmm....

As I wrote on another thread, I play on FullTilt - only for play money. I was in a tournament, getting close to the bubble when FullTilt crashed.

Although they never admitted they crashed, I got an email stating that all remaining players got their buy in back, AND the prize money was divided based on chip stacks.

You SHOULD have been told what happened, etc.

What I do know about the situation was that it was not a site-wide failure, and there were no partial outages. This occured in 2002, and was possibly because I was still playing top46 + Q-10 only. Frankly, I felt it was directed at me, since there was no other notice of the above reasons, which would allow a refund. I was never accused of robotic play at any time.

Besides, I found I was better at H/L Omaha, and more than made up for the early play. A few $2, and $5 final tables will do that. When allowed by law, I'll try out FT.

HI,

Here is my belated contribution.

Based upon the following:

ALL poker sites exist for the sole purpose of making money for the people who own and run them.

Many, if not all, mix free players with paying players. This encourages the evolution of free players becoming paying players. In cash games or by buying chips in non cash games.

The cards are determined by computers,

Computers that are programmed by the people running the site,

Conclusion:

The temptation to REWARD paying players with a better than average of wins will manifest itself when your full house aces and kings falls to four two's with the final card dealt being, of course, a two, So, hands that have odds in the 4.000 to one bracket that you have not seen in life since 1958 will miraculously happen nightly.

Play for fun online. It is a stacked deck.

If there's a reason why we should care about anything you have to say on the matter, you failed to present it.

Also, sick bump dude.