steverobertson
steverobertson
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December 20th, 2009 at 11:06:41 PM permalink
Help me..I do not get it....I have read and believe the odds of 18 in a row of any of the "almost even money bets" are something like 654 000 to 1.....yet....why can't we then, enter the "game" when 12 of one of these has continually come up...and activate a betting system against it happening?? I know the wheel has no memory... but it does have a history, it has a present and it has a future....and with on-line wheels spinning 200 spins per minute, it's easy to find situations of 12 in a row occuring then activating bets against it getting to 18 in a row....make sense? answer me and I appreciate all help 'cause I do not get it??? Roulette 666 is the devil to my mind at the moment
MrPapagiorgio
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December 21st, 2009 at 12:23:02 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

Help me..I do not get it....I have read and believe the odds of 18 in a row of any of the "almost even money bets" are something like 654 000 to 1.....yet....why can't we then, enter the "game" when 12 of one of these has continually come up...and activate a betting system against it happening?? I know the wheel has no memory... but it does have a history, it has a present and it has a future....and with on-line wheels spinning 200 spins per minute, it's easy to find situations of 12 in a row occuring then activating bets against it getting to 18 in a row....make sense? answer me and I appreciate all help 'cause I do not get it??? Roulette 666 is the devil to my mind at the moment




Without doing math to comment on the accuracy or inaccuracy of the "654,000 to 1" that you have posted for 18 reds in a row, the reason why waiting for 12 reds does not improve your odds is that it is the the point from which you are betting that the odds are "654,000 to 1" that you will hit ANOTHER 18 reds in a row. The odds of hitting red on ANY spin never changes (about 47% each spin for single 0), regardless of what has already happened. In fact, it is not only that odds of hitting 18 reds in a row "654,000 to 1" (or whatever the math turns out to be), but the fact is that the odds of hitting ANY specific combination of reds and blacks is the same ("654,000 to 1). This means the odds of hitting:

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR in a sequence
is the same as hitting:

RBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRB

Which also has the same chances as:

RRBRRBRRBRRBRRBRRB

etc...
So I says to him, I said "Get your own monkey!"
steverobertson
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 1:09:26 AM permalink
well based on that logic...I say to you, i wait for 12 whatever's in a row, enter the game and then call the odds of another 18 whatevers being 654000 to 1...that can't be, because that is then 30 whatevers in a row.....I dont buy it yet.....someone ,,, convince me....
JB
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December 21st, 2009 at 1:55:09 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

well based on that logic...I say to you, i wait for 12 whatever's in a row, enter the game and then call the odds of another 18 whatevers being 654000 to 1...that can't be, because that is then 30 whatevers in a row.....I dont buy it yet.....someone ,,, convince me....


You aren't taking into account the knowledge of events that have already occurred. Past events are certain, while future events are uncertain.

The probability of red on a spin that hasn't happened yet is 18/37.

The probability of 18 reds in a row on 18 spins that haven't occurred yet is (18/37)^18 = 1 in 429,265.

However, if the last 18 spins were all red, then the probability of them all being red is 100%. Why? Because that's what happened. There is no more uncertainty over the outcome of those spins.
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 2:34:39 AM permalink
That makes sense....but now I say to you, regardless of what has happened...when the follow up 6 spins do occure and all of a sudden their exists a history of 18 spins in a row delivering the same result for a close to 50/50 spin....you can then have the LIBERTY of looking at that piece of history and saying.."look...that was a 1 in half a million chance of happening!!!"".....and still I hear ...but you can't intercept and bet against that one in half million chance???? thoughts please...
odiousgambit
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December 21st, 2009 at 3:08:33 AM permalink
Piling on here: don't feel bad, that this doesn't make sense to you shows you are human. You're letting your intuition fight the facts. Human intuition cannot be relied upon, there is much of Science that is "counter-intuitive" and this is a strong case of that. Evidently vast horde of gamblers never believe it till they get burned. Do not join their numbers!

Someone "taught" me the Martingale system once a long time ago. He was showing me his gambling system, about which I remember little, but the Martingale was part of it. I remember being skeptical until he got to the Martingale part of it, and a light came on. This fit with my prejudice of the time, that someone who you were betting against and who kept wanting to go "double or nothing" was luring you into a sucker bet. I bought into the idea even though I knew "the dice (or wheel) has no memory". This shows how intuition can fail you in the face of knowledge.

Experimentation convinced me eventually that it was much more likely for an event of, say, 18 losses on red in a row to occur than, again, intuition suggests. Likewise, the bankroll required was daunting even if you wanted to take your chances. Recently the Wizard's sites have been there to really shoot this down for me. I am happy to say I never lost any money trying this foolishness. Join the wise crowd and be able to say the same thing.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
JB
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December 21st, 2009 at 3:29:13 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

That makes sense....but now I say to you, regardless of what has happened...when the follow up 6 spins do occure and all of a sudden their exists a history of 18 spins in a row delivering the same result for a close to 50/50 spin....you can then have the LIBERTY of looking at that piece of history and saying.."look...that was a 1 in half a million chance of happening!!!"".....and still I hear ...but you can't intercept and bet against that one in half million chance???? thoughts please...


Nobody is saying that you can't bet against it if you feel you must. Just be aware that the odds do not magically swing in your favor if you bet on black after 12 reds have occurred. Past events (spins) do not influence or affect future events, because each one is random and independent of each other.

The probability of a red occurring is the same as the probability of a black. Therefore, as an earlier poster eluded to, suppose that instead of the last 12 spins being RRRRRRRRRRRR, they were RBBBRBBRBRRB. Both sequences had the exact same probability of occurring. Does the second one give you any "insight" into which color you should bet on next? It shouldn't, and neither should the first, because they are mathematically identical.
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 3:48:51 AM permalink
then how come you're allowed to analyse the probability and odds apply formula's to the probabilty of 18 reds/odds/high lows is around 500 000 to 1....you're allowed to analyse that and apply that to the future...but you're not allowed to (by not allowed I mean mathematically principles) take whats happened and apply it an overall sequence....the martingale I clearly understand is super floored as it's easy to outrun your bankroll and you're basically betting large sums on 50/50 one off's for minute paydays...ridiculous...but.....sequences....of significant proportions and with big number odds....can't they be applied...this is a different era.....on line roulette allows for around 20 000 spins per hour so will betting ......and injecting the bet into sequences that probablity across decent sized numbers .....can it not work...long term???? Eienstien surely didn't envisage being able to bet on roulette with thousands of spins taken into account???? help me...i want to bet...but I don't want to be betting on long term certain failure...
odiousgambit
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:03:54 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

I don't want to be betting on long term certain failure...



If you aren't doing a Martingale system, but just placing an ordinary sized bet each time, that's harmless, you could even say beneficial if you are limiting your betting to such events only (you would be gambling less often against a game with a house edge)

As you can tell, I smelled a Martingale coming on. If I was wrong, your idea is harmless. But think about it, every idea in the world that is out there, some gambler has tried. Tons have tried this. Who are the big winners?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
JB
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:04:58 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

then how come you're allowed to analyse the probability and odds apply formula's to the probabilty of 18 reds/odds/high lows is around 500 000 to 1....you're allowed to analyse that and apply that to the future...but you're not allowed to (by not allowed I mean mathematically principles) take whats happened and apply it an overall sequence....the martingale I clearly understand is super floored as it's easy to outrun your bankroll and you're basically betting large sums on 50/50 one off's for minute paydays...ridiculous...but.....sequences....of significant proportions and with big number odds....can't they be applied...this is a different era.....on line roulette allows for around 20 000 spins per hour so will betting ......and injecting the bet into sequences that probablity across decent sized numbers .....can it not work...long term???? Eienstien surely didn't envisage being able to bet on roulette with thousands of spins taken into account???? help me...i want to bet...but I don't want to be betting on long term certain failure...


There is no difference between a sequence of 18 reds and a sequence of 18 mixed reds and blacks; each such streak has the same exact probability of occurring. A sequence of 18 reds may seem extraordinary, but it isn't. I don't know what else to say about it, except that there is absolutely no way to beat roulette in the long run.
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:10:08 AM permalink
I understand exactly what you say there...BUT.....it was on the wizard of odds site that I read the exact calculation of the odds of 18 reds coming up......how can thqat be explained that you can apply the liklihood of 18 straight??
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:19:47 AM permalink
Here it is... from your "parent" site....an answer given to a question....

What would be the odds of having a red number turn up 18 times in a row on Roulette. - Doug Jeffrey from Eugene, USA

(18/38)18 =~ 1 in 693745. Nov. 11, 2001

how can you apply a forward prediction like that???... but then not be theoretically allowed to intercept at the 12 in a row point and bet against a 1 in 693745 chance?? Please explain
JB
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:33:50 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

Here it is... from your "parent" site....an answer given to a question....

What would be the odds of having a red number turn up 18 times in a row on Roulette. - Doug Jeffrey from Eugene, USA

(18/38)18 =~ 1 in 693745. Nov. 11, 2001

how can you apply a forward prediction like that???... but then not be theoretically allowed to intercept at the 12 in a row point and bet against a 1 in 693745 chance?? Please explain


If you "jump in" after 12 red spins in a row, the probability of there being a streak of 18 reds (where the last 12 spins are the first 12 of the streak) is much higher, calculated as follows:

(1/1)^12 * (18/38)^6 = 0.011296 = 1 in 88.525125

The original question was referring to 18 future spins. If 12 have already occurred, then it is only a question of 6 future spins.

The first 12 were red, so the probability of those spins being red is 100%, not the 18/38 per spin that it was before their outcomes became known. The probability of the 6 unknown future spins being red is still 18/38 per spin.
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:39:25 AM permalink
and...if you look at this situation after it has happened... 18 spins..18 reds...are you then allowed to look back and say...what happened there was a one in half million...or whatever that figure is...of happening?????
JB
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:51:44 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

and...if you look at this situation after it has happened... 18 spins..18 reds...are you then allowed to look back and say...what happened there was a one in half million...or whatever that figure is...of happening?????


You could look back at the last 18 reds and say "That particular sequence had a 1 in 693,745 chance of occurring" ... but you can also say the exact same thing about any 18-spin sequence where no numbers were green.

Just keep in mind that it has no bearing whatsoever on what will happen on future spins. The past does not matter.
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:53:11 AM permalink
JB...thanks for your help on this...I'm keen on a reply on the last point....what yu said in your last reply....unfortunately has me believing....that you can legitimately expect to win....if you jump in at 12 reds...and bet the next 6 blacks....based on a theory that 18 reds in a row is a one in approx half million chance!........and on those 6 bets you stake it small to win small....over and over......in 20 000 spins...you'll risk $50.....to win $30.......might you win significantly more often than you lose?
JB
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December 21st, 2009 at 4:59:13 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

JB...thanks for your help on this...I'm keen on a reply on the last point....what yu said in your last reply....unfortunately has me believing....that you can legitimately expect to win....if you jump in at 12 reds...and bet the next 6 blacks....based on a theory that 18 reds in a row is a one in approx half million chance!........and on those 6 bets you stake it small to win small....over and over......in 20 000 spins...you'll risk $50.....to win $30.......might you win significantly more often than you lose?


Regardless of when you "jump in", your odds for the next spin are always the same:

red: 18/38
black: 18/38
zero: 2/38

In the long run, you will always lose 5.26% of whatever you bet, regardless of when you bet. (Assuming double-zero roulette)
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 5:04:21 AM permalink
I see that....Let me ask you this question JB....does it confuse you at all that you can look back on a sequence and accurately say those 18 spins in a row being even was a 1 in half million chance.......but .......that said......you cannot jump in at 12 evens in row and bet against that sequence of 18 happening.....does that confuse you just a little...or is it clear to you....it might be a state of mind thing that I just cannot grasp....
JB
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December 21st, 2009 at 5:07:22 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

I see that....Let me ask you this question JB....does it confuse you at all that you can look back on a sequence and accurately say those 18 spins in a row being even was a 1 in half million chance.......but .......that said......you cannot jump in at 12 evens in row and bet against that sequence of 18 happening.....does that confuse you just a little...or is it clear to you....it might be a state of mind thing that I just cannot grasp....


It doesn't confuse me, because the past does not affect the future when you're talking about random, independent events such as spins of a roulette wheel.
DJTeddyBear
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December 21st, 2009 at 5:08:25 AM permalink
Let's attack this from another direction.

Assume that somewhere there is a casino that has a jackpot bet for 18 Red/Black/Odd/Even/High/Low in a row.

Do you think that the casino would let you place your bet after 12 in a row had already hit?


Remember: For every gambler that looked at the display at the roulette table and said "Look honey. Red came out 12 times in a row! We should bet on black," there was another sucker that said "Look honey. Red came out 11 times in a row! We should bet on black."
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 5:16:13 AM permalink
I agree with these last two posts...the one thing that puts my head in a spin on this is ---- for future spins...the odds of 18 reds/blacks/evens/odds is 1 in half million approx.....how can you say that mathematically..... it 's not a proobability that can be calculated because each future 18 spins ....begins at 1 and begins at 1 again and is indepentant so I can't apply a proobability formula to it.... it cannot be done.....can it??? why did the wizard of odds apply that formula... wa he wrong???
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 5:34:15 AM permalink
then why did the wizard of odds say the probability of 18 reds in a row was approximately 1 in a half million.....he was wrong to say this wasn't he?
steverobertson
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December 21st, 2009 at 5:40:27 AM permalink
I'm in australia and it's mid night...I have to sleep...but I can't...just tell me the wizard of odds was WRONG to place a probability of one in approx half million of 18 in a row red/black/odd/even....he was wrong because you cant apply probability forward in roulette because each spin is independant....if thats right tell me he was wrong and I will sleep...
zippedup
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December 21st, 2009 at 5:52:42 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Let's attack this from another direction.

Assume that somewhere there is a casino that has a jackpot bet for 18 Red/Black/Odd/Even/High/Low in a row.

Do you think that the casino would let you place your bet after 12 in a row had already hit?


Remember: For every gambler that looked at the display at the roulette table and said "Look honey. Red came out 12 times in a row! We should bet on black," there was another sucker that said "Look honey. Red came out 11 times in a row! We should bet on black."

JB
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December 21st, 2009 at 5:57:48 AM permalink
Quote: steverobertson

I'm in australia and it's mid night...I have to sleep...but I can't...just tell me the wizard of odds was WRONG to place a probability of one in approx half million of 18 in a row red/black/odd/even....he was wrong because you cant apply probability forward in roulette because each spin is independant....if thats right tell me he was wrong and I will sleep...


No, he was not wrong. The probability he calculated was correct.

Each spin has a probability of 18/38. Since each spin is independent, you multiply the probability together 18 times, to get (18/38)^18 = 0.00000144 = 1 in 693,745.

This discussion has gone on long enough, and you clearly need some sleep, so I am closing this thread.
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