Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 1549
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
July 5th, 2023 at 7:34:06 AM permalink
Until recently, I never saw a leaderboard where the scores did not increase or stay the same as you moved up in position. There are normally clear bubble levels to shoot for. This leaderboard below features favored positions that pay more than higher placings.
1st Place $4,000
2nd Place$2,500
3rd Place $1,500
4th Place$1,000
5th - 6th Place$800
7th Place$750
8th Place$1,000
9th Place$750
10th Place$800
11th Place$1,000
12th Place$600
13th Place$750
14th - 15th Place$600
The favored positions occur all the way down the prize table. This makes it difficult to play the endgame of the leaderboard. If you are in a favored position, other players may be targeting your spot in a last second power move. If you shoot for a favored spot, you may overshoot or undershoot and end up with a worse prize than your current prize. Here is a short segment of the final leaderboard standings.
PositionScorePrize
52nd Place791,083.00$250
53rd Place791,083.00$300
54th Place778,918.00$100
55th Place771,075.00$250
The relative gaps between scores are quite small. The scores can change dramatically between the last update of the leaderboard and the end of the leaderboard. I have tried to hit some of these favored prize positions with last-minute play. I do think I have increased my EV, but I seldom hit the spot I am aiming for. I would need to develop better predictive algorithms to better guess where the scores are going to end up. Linear models don't seem to work even for ordinary bubbles. For these weird bubbles, predicting opponent strategies even even more difficult.

I wonder if this prize structure actually promotes extra play. I have been in a position where I have stopped playing because I am in an unfavorable position on the leaderboard and I am hoping some other contestant passes my score. With standard leaderboards, there is never a penalty for overplaying.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
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