Exploitable Loss Rebate
December 17th, 2021 at 1:01:44 PM
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An observation, and, I suppose a request for help and opinions.
My main online casinos gives me a 5% loss rebate, paid once per month. Which is nice. But I think they may have given me a +EV situation. Here's why I think this.
Today I got a £54 loss rebate. No wagering requirement! Nice. Thank you. Why? I didn't lose!
This month, I played most days. Typically I bought in for £50, £100 or £200 per day, which I either lost or doubled or better. At least one day I turned £200 into £800 and at least a couple of times I turned £300 or more into nothing. Swings and roundabouts. Anyway, over the last 30 days, I deposited £5100 and cashed out £5700 for a net profit of £600 (rough figures)
So clearly I was not eligible for a loss rebate???
But I received one, of £54. So at 5%, they reckon I lost £1020 over the month. But taking the 30 days as a whole, I won!
I conclude that they must, therefore be setting aside my loss rebate individually every day!. Days where I lose, I get a rebate credited and days where I win, I get nothing. It's a reasonable estimate that the sum of the losses on my losing days would indeed be about £1000.
This surprises me. If I were the casino, I would assess my profit or loss, just once, covering the 30 day period. Thus I would not have given any rebate. Doing it on 30 individual 24 hour periods, they are giving me 5% on ROUGHLY 15 days and 0% on 15 days. Or, on average they are giving me 2.5% of my buy-ins!
So.... +Ev scenario...... Rough, back of the envelope estimate....
Each day, credit my account with say £1,000.
Make one low edge wager at roughly even money. Say one hand of Blackjack at 0.4% house edge.
If it's a push, rebet till I win or lose.
Underlying EV over the 30 day month = 30 X 1,000 X -0.004 = -120
*Ignoring blackjacks or splits or doubles, for the moment I would lose on average 16 days (53%) and win on average 14 days.
Loss rebate 16 x 1,000 X 0.05 = £800
Subtract the £120 I lose to the house edge and I have +EV of £680 per month.
There is a downside: Variance
Overall Standard Deviation =sqroot(30) x 1.14 x 1000 = £6244
So each month I have +EV of £680 +/- £6244 to one standard deviation.
Now. That's one way of doing it. Variance is high, so it comes at a big risk. Let's consider what happens if we try to maximise EV....
Similar situation, but lets say, we aspire to lose on 29 days of the month and win back all of those losses on the 30th day ( not necessarily the last day.) We need to engineer a session wager that pays 30 for 1. Easy enough to do. I could, have a daily win goal of 29,000 profit using the most aggressive 'All in' positive progression: Wager 1,000, win, wager 2,000, win. wager 4,000, win, wager 8,000 win, wager 16,000 win, wager 13,000 win. If that last wager loses, just keep max wagering in the same way, till I profit 29,000 or lose 1,000. Obviously, on average I lose 29 days out of 30. Ignoring the possible ebb and flow if I lose that last wager, my average daily wager would be sum(1000+2000/2+4000/4+8000/8+16000/16+ 13000/32) = £5406
Overall Standard deviation for the month would be sqroot(30) x 1.14 x 5406 = 33,750
Loss rebate value = 29 x 1,000 x 0.05 = 1450
Clearly much more risky but almost twice as valuable in rebates.
Each day I would expose an average of £5406 to the house edge, with a bit more if there was any ebbing and flowing for the last few wagers. House edge cost 30 x 5406 x 0.004=1297. AH.! That didn't cost in! I need to revisit this. Consult some proper Advantage players or mathematicians.
Thank you anyway, Online casino.
* ensuring I have enough reserve funds to cover any splits or doubles is a given.
My main online casinos gives me a 5% loss rebate, paid once per month. Which is nice. But I think they may have given me a +EV situation. Here's why I think this.
Today I got a £54 loss rebate. No wagering requirement! Nice. Thank you. Why? I didn't lose!
This month, I played most days. Typically I bought in for £50, £100 or £200 per day, which I either lost or doubled or better. At least one day I turned £200 into £800 and at least a couple of times I turned £300 or more into nothing. Swings and roundabouts. Anyway, over the last 30 days, I deposited £5100 and cashed out £5700 for a net profit of £600 (rough figures)
So clearly I was not eligible for a loss rebate???
But I received one, of £54. So at 5%, they reckon I lost £1020 over the month. But taking the 30 days as a whole, I won!
I conclude that they must, therefore be setting aside my loss rebate individually every day!. Days where I lose, I get a rebate credited and days where I win, I get nothing. It's a reasonable estimate that the sum of the losses on my losing days would indeed be about £1000.
This surprises me. If I were the casino, I would assess my profit or loss, just once, covering the 30 day period. Thus I would not have given any rebate. Doing it on 30 individual 24 hour periods, they are giving me 5% on ROUGHLY 15 days and 0% on 15 days. Or, on average they are giving me 2.5% of my buy-ins!
So.... +Ev scenario...... Rough, back of the envelope estimate....
Each day, credit my account with say £1,000.
Make one low edge wager at roughly even money. Say one hand of Blackjack at 0.4% house edge.
If it's a push, rebet till I win or lose.
Underlying EV over the 30 day month = 30 X 1,000 X -0.004 = -120
*Ignoring blackjacks or splits or doubles, for the moment I would lose on average 16 days (53%) and win on average 14 days.
Loss rebate 16 x 1,000 X 0.05 = £800
Subtract the £120 I lose to the house edge and I have +EV of £680 per month.
There is a downside: Variance
Overall Standard Deviation =sqroot(30) x 1.14 x 1000 = £6244
So each month I have +EV of £680 +/- £6244 to one standard deviation.
Now. That's one way of doing it. Variance is high, so it comes at a big risk. Let's consider what happens if we try to maximise EV....
Similar situation, but lets say, we aspire to lose on 29 days of the month and win back all of those losses on the 30th day ( not necessarily the last day.) We need to engineer a session wager that pays 30 for 1. Easy enough to do. I could, have a daily win goal of 29,000 profit using the most aggressive 'All in' positive progression: Wager 1,000, win, wager 2,000, win. wager 4,000, win, wager 8,000 win, wager 16,000 win, wager 13,000 win. If that last wager loses, just keep max wagering in the same way, till I profit 29,000 or lose 1,000. Obviously, on average I lose 29 days out of 30. Ignoring the possible ebb and flow if I lose that last wager, my average daily wager would be sum(1000+2000/2+4000/4+8000/8+16000/16+ 13000/32) = £5406
Overall Standard deviation for the month would be sqroot(30) x 1.14 x 5406 = 33,750
Loss rebate value = 29 x 1,000 x 0.05 = 1450
Clearly much more risky but almost twice as valuable in rebates.
Each day I would expose an average of £5406 to the house edge, with a bit more if there was any ebbing and flowing for the last few wagers. House edge cost 30 x 5406 x 0.004=1297. AH.! That didn't cost in! I need to revisit this. Consult some proper Advantage players or mathematicians.
Thank you anyway, Online casino.
* ensuring I have enough reserve funds to cover any splits or doubles is a given.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Dec 17, 2021
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
December 17th, 2021 at 2:07:18 PM
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OD…. You make this more complicated than it is. It is exploitable, but at only 5% you are not going to get rich doing it. Forget thinking about the fact that they reimburse you once a month; just remember that on any given day you have a 5% loss rebate available to you. There are many on this forum that will take great advantage of loss rebates, that I can assure you.
December 17th, 2021 at 2:14:44 PM
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Some online casinos are too generous. They'll figure it out.
Remember the FanDuel promo I told you about where I got a bonus based on deposits and it stairstepped each day?
Friday: Deposit $1,000 get $250
Saturday deposit $1,000 get $500
Sunday deposit $1,000 get $1,000
all with just 1x play thru requirement?
I have got this same promo each of the last 4 weekends!
Today I deposited $1,000. Slowed played it. Got up a little so pressed some. I turned the $1,000 into $1,200. Now I'll get $250 free money tomorrow and then deposit $1,000 more to do it again.
I have made over $8,000 on this promo in the last month and it keeps coming!
Remember the FanDuel promo I told you about where I got a bonus based on deposits and it stairstepped each day?
Friday: Deposit $1,000 get $250
Saturday deposit $1,000 get $500
Sunday deposit $1,000 get $1,000
all with just 1x play thru requirement?
I have got this same promo each of the last 4 weekends!
Today I deposited $1,000. Slowed played it. Got up a little so pressed some. I turned the $1,000 into $1,200. Now I'll get $250 free money tomorrow and then deposit $1,000 more to do it again.
I have made over $8,000 on this promo in the last month and it keeps coming!
December 17th, 2021 at 3:00:22 PM
permalink
Nice. I always say "Don't beat the game: Beat the marketing team"Quote: mwalz9Some online casinos are too generous. They'll figure it out.
Remember the FanDuel promo I told you about where I got a bonus based on deposits and it stairstepped each day?
Friday: Deposit $1,000 get $250
Saturday deposit $1,000 get $500
Sunday deposit $1,000 get $1,000
all with just 1x play thru requirement?
I have got this same promo each of the last 4 weekends!
Today I deposited $1,000. Slowed played it. Got up a little so pressed some. I turned the $1,000 into $1,200. Now I'll get $250 free money tomorrow and then deposit $1,000 more to do it again.
I have made over $8,000 on this promo in the last month and it keeps coming!
link to original post
Are you up to speed on this thread about tax issues?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/online/32412-taxes/4/#post834676
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
December 17th, 2021 at 3:03:35 PM
permalink
Oh, i know. I just mess about with them.Quote: SOOPOOOD…. You make this more complicated than it is. It is exploitable, but at only 5% you are not going to get rich doing it. Forget thinking about the fact that they reimburse you once a month; just remember that on any given day you have a 5% loss rebate available to you. There are many on this forum that will take great advantage of loss rebates, that I can assure you.
link to original post
I was just amused that they credit it daily and not monthly.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
December 17th, 2021 at 5:06:14 PM
permalink
Download & use this spreadsheet for your analysis -- didn't read any of the posts above, maybe this does not apply:
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.27/7x0.564.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Loss_Rebate_Theorem_Full_Solution_ROR.xlsx
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.27/7x0.564.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Loss_Rebate_Theorem_Full_Solution_ROR.xlsx
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