joeldysmith
joeldysmith
Joined: Nov 12, 2014
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November 17th, 2014 at 5:05:33 AM permalink
Hello all

This is my first thread here. I really love get involved in this great community. I found a very useful stuff here. And i wonder how to find the real payout for the slots fames that the online casinos or offline casinos offer?
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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November 17th, 2014 at 5:54:53 PM permalink
The only way is to track a great number of spins and try to determine the reel assignments, which lead to the probabilities of each winning combination multiplied by said combinations on the paytable and added all together and that result divided by the bet amount yields the return.
Vultures can't be choosers.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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November 17th, 2014 at 6:14:41 PM permalink
The only place where I have seen the slot machines show you the expected return (e.g. 95%) is at the Crown Casino in Melbourne, Australia (and even then, it's buried somewhere in the help screens). It's not even an "Australia thing"; the Star casino in Sydney did not do this when I was there.

As Mission146 said, the only way is to play the game a lot and divide the amount it paid back by the amount you put in.

I am under the impression that, on Vegas slots, the actual setting is a very, very, very, veryveryvery, very, very, did I mention very, very closely guarded secret.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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November 17th, 2014 at 6:34:01 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The only place where I have seen the slot machines show you the expected return (e.g. 95%) is at the Crown Casino in Melbourne, Australia (and even then, it's buried somewhere in the help screens). It's not even an "Australia thing"; the Star casino in Sydney did not do this when I was there.

As Mission146 said, the only way is to play the game a lot and divide the amount it paid back by the amount you put in.



Yeah, only Victoria law requires RTP to be publically available. I wish more jurisdictions did this.

And actually mission suggests to "deconstruct the reels" of a machine through an appropriate number of spins and mathematically determine the exact payback via combinatorics. But with the era of the modern "free spin bonus" on most machines, this is very difficult.
joeldysmith
joeldysmith
Joined: Nov 12, 2014
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November 17th, 2014 at 7:04:49 PM permalink
this is sound so interesting. I will do some research for it .
Avincow
Avincow
Joined: Oct 17, 2014
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November 17th, 2014 at 7:34:27 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The only way is to track a great number of spins and try to determine the reel assignments, which lead to the probabilities of each winning combination multiplied by said combinations on the paytable and added all together and that result divided by the bet amount yields the return.



So how does AP slot play work? To determine if a jackpot is high enough, you would need to gamble a heck of a lot before you find the right machine.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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November 17th, 2014 at 7:40:02 PM permalink
Quote: Avincow

So how does AP slot play work? To determine if a jackpot is high enough, you would need to gamble a heck of a lot before you find the right machine.



You don't need to gamble a heck of a lot. Just need to watch. For example, some machines have a jackpot that starts at $250 and must award by $500. By watching how fast it rises, you can identify situations where you're highly likely to come out ahead by playing (as an obvious example, if the meter read $499.99, you'd need to risk $2.00 to win $500 guaranteed).
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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November 17th, 2014 at 8:09:39 PM permalink
Quote: Avincow

So how does AP slot play work? To determine if a jackpot is high enough, you would need to gamble a heck of a lot before you find the right machine.



What RDW4POTUS said is absolutely right. Furthermore, as Tringlomane pointed out, I am referring to combinatorics to determine the exact return, or a REALLY close approximation. There are a few slot deconstructions on WoO, just go to Wizardofodds.com and search the word, "Deconstruct."

With respect to slots AP, in addition to the must-hit games that have been mentioned, or games for which we know the progressive probabilities, I don't deconstruct the machine or use combinatorics in order to do that.

AS RDW4POTUS stated, you sit and watch someone else play it and take notes. What I usually like to do is go after the bottom two Progressives on a machine that has multiple progressives. The way I'm going to do that is I am going to watch 5,000 or 10,000 spins and see what the overall return was on those spins as well as how many times each progressive hit during those spins. These aren't going to be exact numbers, in the end, but they're usually sufficient, especially if you are only going for lower Progressives at unusually high levels.

That process is tedious, but simple, I just track how much coin went in and what the return was. If someone hits what I would consider an extremely unusual result, say a line pay result that is one of the two best possible, I toss that result, or knock it down to Even Money, or something along those lines. If someone hits one of the Progressives while playing, I only credit it as the base amount of the Progressive, because those are the frequencies in which I am the most interested.

Now, if I watch 5,000 spins, I'm going to go for Progressives that hit five, or more, times, except in cases where the Bonus games automatically reward a Progressive, then dividing those Progressives into, "Levels," I'll take the average level rewarded and look for Progressives lower than that.

By doing it this way, I've essentially done my best to, "Handicap," the base return of the machine, and if I still end up with something higher than 90% after removing line pays that seem unlikely (to me) to hit, then I just assume 90% and figure out where the Progressives would need to be to make it 100% and play at 105%, or better.

There are a couple other games where Wilds that are left behind can be, "Vultured," and I've made threads on such machines like Money Works and Venice Nights. There are also some games where you know when the bonus is going to happen, such as some versions of Rock Around the Clock, and I've made a thread on that, so you can vulture that just by looking and seeing if it is close to the Bonus Time.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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