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Mission146
Mission146
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November 25th, 2022 at 8:02:02 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: billryan

Whatever happened to people who mean what they say or say what they mean?

The new kool thing is to throw out wild claims and repeat them without actually meaning it.
If I said BT would be X, I would mean it and back up my words.
Instead, we get a nonsensical post like it will be $250,000, and today Cathy Woods claiming it will hit one million dollars per. It's more ridiculous than some guy claiming an 80% hit rate, on a table game but that is where we find ourselves these days. My gawd, who doesn't want to buy something that "an expert" says will go up 6,000% in the next year or so?
Perhaps if we bathe bitcoin in a solution of lemonlabob, it will go up to two million per coin. You heard it here first.
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I think that went out the window when you asked anyone to show proof Bitcoin has had any upward motion in the last two years and then simply ignored every time I post that it has because it makes you look bad.

So here it is again, Bitcoin having upwards movement in the last two years. Since you asked for the proof you should have the decency to respond when someone supplies it


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Are you guys even talking about the same thing? Anything highly volatile, which BTC certainly seems to be, is going to have ups and downs. Furthermore, BTC has, at times, significantly increased relative to its implied value since 11/25/20.

However, if BillRyan is using, "Upward Movement," to mean that Bitcoin is down overall in the last two years, meaning since 11/25/20, then BillRyan is correct. In terms of adjusted value (which is lower than unadjusted value, which means the price you'd have seen that day is higher), BTC closed at 18,732.12 on 11/25/20. That being the case, relative to 11/25/20, BTC is down nearly 12%. Relative to that date, for comparison, the Dow is up 14, or so, percent.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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November 25th, 2022 at 8:04:21 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

The rise in bitcoin seems to have been caused by millions of small investors buying a few hundred dollars of it at a time when the government was handing out checks and paying everyone unemployment. It was the shiny object that caught a bunch of newbies attention. Those "investors" have moved on, and I wonder who will replace them?
It's not a commodity. It's more akin to a collectible than anything else.
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It's funny you should say that! I'm going to have an article coming about investing in collectibles after doing some more research and conducting an interview with one or two people that I think will be pretty interesting. Specifically, Magic the Gathering, which I haven't actually played, but I happened across someone who is actually a long-term investor in that, so the subject interested me.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
darkoz
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Mission146
November 25th, 2022 at 8:16:40 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: billryan

The rise in bitcoin seems to have been caused by millions of small investors buying a few hundred dollars of it at a time when the government was handing out checks and paying everyone unemployment. It was the shiny object that caught a bunch of newbies attention. Those "investors" have moved on, and I wonder who will replace them?
It's not a commodity. It's more akin to a collectible than anything else.
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It's funny you should say that! I'm going to have an article coming about investing in collectibles after doing some more research and conducting an interview with one or two people that I think will be pretty interesting. Specifically, Magic the Gathering, which I haven't actually played, but I happened across someone who is actually a long-term investor in that, so the subject interested me.
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Magic the gathering is not what I would consider a collectible either although it's certainly has some sisterhood to it.

The value of magic the gathering is that they had tournaments and that the "collectibles" imbued powers for the owner such that during the tournament your collection, knowledge of its usage and combination of power could determine whether you win or lose.

The intrinsic value in magic the gathering therefore is akin to say tennis or basketball.

To claim basketball items are nothing but collectibles because they have no intrinsic value off the playing field is ridiculous.

Same with magic the gathering.

EDIT: BTW if you are interested in a good book about magic the gathering I suggest "Jonny Magic and the Card Shark Kids". After becoming top champion at Magic the card shark kids attacked card counting at blackjack.

The winning combinations and keeping track of the cards at Magic is so complex that they found card counting to be something for kindergarteners.
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billryan
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November 25th, 2022 at 8:26:31 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: billryan

The rise in bitcoin seems to have been caused by millions of small investors buying a few hundred dollars of it at a time when the government was handing out checks and paying everyone unemployment. It was the shiny object that caught a bunch of newbies attention. Those "investors" have moved on, and I wonder who will replace them?
It's not a commodity. It's more akin to a collectible than anything else.
link to original post



It's funny you should say that! I'm going to have an article coming about investing in collectibles after doing some more research and conducting an interview with one or two people that I think will be pretty interesting. Specifically, Magic the Gathering, which I haven't actually played, but I happened across someone who is actually a long-term investor in that, so the subject interested me.
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That is one collectible I know almost nothing about. A friend of mine, who had created the 1980s comic board game Villians and Vigilantes and worked on a DC-based game was offered exclusive distributorship rights for the Eastern US for Magic and turned it down, thinking it was too niche and would take away from a boardless chess game he was working on. We all make mistakes.
A year or two ago, I stumbled into what was purported to be unopened boxes of one of the early Magic series, but the "original factory seals" seemed off, and it was way too much money to take a chance on.
In comics, the price of the average 1960s Marvel keys roughly tripled from the start of Covid, although most have since fallen back quite a bit. The hi-end went nuts, with books that sold for $200,000 suddenly selling for a million. There are more comics in the $1,000,000 club today then there were in the $100,000 club five years ago.
Looking forward to the article.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
lilredrooster
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Mission146
November 25th, 2022 at 8:37:03 AM permalink
__________


BTC has been around since 2010 - that's coming up on to 13 years - that may not be a very long time - but it's not 8 months

if I was forced to make a bet as to whether or not it will be around in 25 years I would bet that it will be

but I couldn't even make a guess as to how its price action will evolve

Mission called it "fundamentally worthless" which is surely correct

but there is a lot of stuff in our society that hangs on that is fundamentally worthless

an argument could be made that if people perceive value in something then it cannot be valueless


.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
Mission146
Mission146
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November 25th, 2022 at 8:41:45 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz



Magic the gathering is not what I would consider a collectible either although it's certainly has some sisterhood to it.

The value of magic the gathering is that they had tournaments and that the "collectibles" imbued powers for the owner such that during the tournament your collection, knowledge of its usage and combination of power could determine whether you win or lose.

The intrinsic value in magic the gathering therefore is akin to say tennis or basketball.

To claim basketball items are nothing but collectibles because they have no intrinsic value off the playing field is ridiculous.

Same with magic the gathering.

EDIT: BTW if you are interested in a good book about magic the gathering I suggest "Jonny Magic and the Card Shark Kids". After becoming top champion at Magic the card shark kids attacked card counting at blackjack.

The winning combinations and keeping track of the cards at Magic is so complex that they found card counting to be something for kindergarteners.
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(Quote clipped to remove quote in quote)

All I can say is that you can expect to be surprised! I hope you will enjoy the article!

The most stable form of "collecting", at least as a long-term investment, seems to actually be sealed box sets. While many people collect and have individual cards graded, early research would indicate that buying boxes of cards and then opening and storing them is generally not profitable. If you had done that right off the bat before Magic the Gathering actually popped as a game, and held those individual cards, then they can be worth a ton of money now, but most people (obviously) did not think to do that at the time.

Anyway, I have no idea what the rest of your post is saying. It seems that you are objecting to something I said, or some perception of what you think the article is going to be, but I'm not sure what your objection is.

Magic the Gathering is known as a CCG (Collectible Card Game) or TCG (Trading Card Game), but the most consistent way to invest in Magic appears to be in sealed product. Because it is sealed, you don't even know what cards are in those boxes...other than they are part of some set of cards, but you don't know the individual cards.

I don't know what the ratio of players to collectors is, and I strongly suspect many collectors are also players, but the article is mostly going to focus on Magic the Gathering sealed boxes as a viable long-term investment.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
lilredrooster
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November 25th, 2022 at 8:47:51 AM permalink
_____________


it's kind of ironic that many here are saying BTC is worthless

THIS IS A GAMBLING BOARD

for probably about 98% of the people here a poker chip or a blackjack chip or a bacc chip or a slot machine is a worthless thing

unless you say that it has entertainment value


.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
Mission146
Mission146
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November 25th, 2022 at 8:49:46 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

__________


BTC has been around since 2010 - that's coming up on to 13 years - that may not be a very long time - but it's not 8 months

if I was forced to make a bet as to whether or not it will be around in 25 years I would bet that it will be

but I couldn't even make a guess as to how its price action will evolve

Mission called it "fundamentally worthless" which is surely correct

but there is a lot of stuff in our society that hangs on that is fundamentally worthless

an argument could be made that if people perceive value in something then it cannot be valueless
.
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I agree with all of this, except I'm inclined to bet against BTC having any meaningful implied value in 25 years.

While it is fundamentally worthless, I agree that it is not presently valueless as the value is whatever someone is willing to pay you for it. I don't think anyone is selling BTC at a 25% discount relative to current MV, which is what it would take to get me to buy it.

What's the downside? Always an important question. The downside is that it's fundamentally worthless, so, in theory, can become worth $0.00 in both implied value and MV. Other than short-term price fluctuations, it's possible that BTC retains the current general downward trajectory and never meaningfully recovers, so today's investor maybe doesn't want to admit to overestimating the market and take an actual (and undeniable) loss, figuring there's always a chance for a rebound if they continue to hold.

In general, I would encourage people to never consider what it is they can make as a priority, but always consider what it is you can lose first. For those who already have money, there's plenty of money to be made out there with effectively zero risk....for the next year or two, anyway.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan
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November 25th, 2022 at 8:52:18 AM permalink
Something has value if someone else will pay for it. That's really the only criterion. People saying it has value is worthless.

Look at Confederate money. By the end of the Civil War, it was near worthless. For a hundred years after the war, it was useless. It was the punchline of thousands of jokes and tv skits. As a kid, I bought two $100 Confederate bills from a shop in Gettysburg for about half of one weeks allowance. Then it seems people started to see the historic value of the bills, and their value increased. Who would have thought that 150 years after it's defeat, a confederate $100 bill would be worth more than the winning sides $100 bills.




.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Mission146
Mission146
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November 25th, 2022 at 8:56:10 AM permalink
Quote: billryan



That is one collectible I know almost nothing about. A friend of mine, who had created the 1980s comic board game Villians and Vigilantes and worked on a DC-based game was offered exclusive distributorship rights for the Eastern US for Magic and turned it down, thinking it was too niche and would take away from a boardless chess game he was working on. We all make mistakes.
A year or two ago, I stumbled into what was purported to be unopened boxes of one of the early Magic series, but the "original factory seals" seemed off, and it was way too much money to take a chance on.
In comics, the price of the average 1960s Marvel keys roughly tripled from the start of Covid, although most have since fallen back quite a bit. The hi-end went nuts, with books that sold for $200,000 suddenly selling for a million. There are more comics in the $1,000,000 club today then there were in the $100,000 club five years ago.
Looking forward to the article.
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It was probably wise on your part to pass on the offer. As I understand it, the counterfeiting of individual cards is a thing that happens sometimes in Magic, but it's not impossible that sealed boxes could also be counterfeit.

You seem to know a good bit about comic collecting, but I already knew that people collected those. There's a big controversy going on in the Magic world right now over some direct-to-consumer selling as well as a 30th Anniversary thing of four packs that are proxy cards and not tournament legal being sold directly by Magic, which is Wizards of the Coast, now owned by Hasbro. Anyway, the four pack of proxies that aren't even legal cards will be $1,000, which is causing a lot of people to be pretty ticked off. Hasbro is also flooding the market with new sets relative to the release rate that Wizards of the Coast had before being acquired, so players are pretty ticked off about that, as well.

Additionally, Magic seems to be increasingly doing direct-to-consumer sales of certain products, which is terrible for local card stores and are also doing some product dumps of backup unsold inventory on Amazon and such.

So, for that reason, I expect the article to do pretty well on Google, otherwise I'd have a hard time justifying writing it as it can only loosely be thought of as gambling.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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