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Mission146
Mission146 
Joined: May 15, 2012
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November 24th, 2022 at 11:59:37 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



I saw a 1 year chart. (Dates approximate). If you bought Bitcoin a year ago at $67,500, you only lost SEVENTY FIVE percent of your investment. Let me repeat that. 75%.
A year ago I think we had a thread here saying Bitcoin $500,000 or some such. So buying at that $67.5k mark looked like a great investment to those thinking $500k was around the corner. And you would have lost 3/4 of your money. Even my shitty stocks/bonds are ‘only ‘ down 15% or so.

I’m certainly not smart enough to make a good guess on Bitcoin. But after FTX I wouldn’t be bullish.
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(Quote clipped to remove quote in quote)

I agree with you that I am not smart enough to make a guess. You might be smart enough to make a guess, but I am not smart enough to make a guess.

The best thing to do when you're not smart enough to make a guess is to not make a guess, or bad things tend to happen, sometimes.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 24th, 2022 at 12:03:45 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: billryan

It's the new math. Better to lose 75% of your money on unregulated spec than pay 30% in taxes.
Keep it out of THE MANs reach by entrusting it to strangers and the whim of the marketplace.
HLod on, the doubling is only 15 months away.

As I understand it, every bitcoin is easily identified and traced, so when regulations are put in place, the evil IRS will unleash its minions on transactions and figure out who has been playing hide the cash from Uncle Sam.
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Lets see, about 10 years ago, BTC was about $1,000. It is about $17,000 now. The math to me seems to say buy and hold. If pattern holds it will hit about $250,000 next doubling, at which time I will have enough to make it worth putting 80% of that to stablecoins. After that it should fall to around $50,000 and the haters here will again be saying it is a fraud and lost 80% of its value. After it hits bottom do it all over again.
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So your plan is to wait until BC hits $250,000 and then cash out 80%. Wow. I suppose it's better than a plan that involves hitting the lotto jackpot. Obviously, you will leave the 20% and wait until BC hits $ 1.5 million and repeat your cashout. Got to love a man with a plan.
By the way, do you have any idea how many other collectibles pop and then fall 75-90% How many people are waiting for baseball cards, John Wayne, Elvis and hundreds of other once hot collectibles to regain their former values.
Bitcoin will only go up in value if a larger audience continues to buy into them. I'm pretty sure that ship done sailed. You keep saying Bitcoin will hit $250,000 next year. I don't suppose you'd like to wager on it?
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I am following the pattern of the last 12 years. This is not like looking and seeing red has hit 5 times then black 2 then red 5 so switch. BTC has had steadily increasing adoption over the years. In countries more enlightened than the USA, or IOW most other advanced countries, BTC is on the financial markets.

Only about 22% op USA adults own BTC per a quick Google peek, and worldwide only about 1 billion people own any kind of crypto. That means we have lots more people that can enter the market. If every millionaire in the USA bought1 BTC then there would be none left for anyone else. Just millionaires and just the USA. See the scarcity?

ETH is more abundant and has more uses. It is also now deflationary. So I have investments in it as well. Plus some SHIB, that one more a lottery ticket. I keep hoping some poor country says they are making SHIB their currency. At worst my investment there is what I might lose if I was an avid slots player. My chances of it hitting in even a moderate way are bigger than hitting the progressive.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 24th, 2022 at 12:25:49 PM permalink
So your repeated claim that bitcoin will hit $250,00 next year isn't something you want to bet on?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 24th, 2022 at 12:42:51 PM permalink
A few stats.



Almost two years ago, there were 400,000 bitcoin transactions a day. Today the average is closer to 250,000.

Bitcoin November 26, 2021- 54,572.
Bitcoin November 24, 2022-16, 555 Down 71% for the year
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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November 24th, 2022 at 1:37:43 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

So your repeated claim that bitcoin will hit $250,00 next year isn't something you want to bet on?
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He actually didn't make that claim.

He said next DOUBLING.

He didn't say next year or when it would happen.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 24th, 2022 at 1:52:35 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: billryan

So your repeated claim that bitcoin will hit $250,00 next year isn't something you want to bet on?
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He actually didn't make that claim.

He said next DOUBLING.

He didn't say next year or when it would happen.
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It was thought to be in March of 2024, but most people say June 2024 these days.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
JuliePA
JuliePA
Joined: Nov 24, 2022
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November 24th, 2022 at 2:19:35 PM permalink
Tim Draper’s prediction: women will drive Bitcoin’s price up. REALLY ?
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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November 24th, 2022 at 3:16:27 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

You keep saying Bitcoin will hit $250,000 next year. I don't suppose you'd like to wager on it?



Don't you think he is already wagering on it if he is buying bitcoin?
Order from chaos
billryan
billryan 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 24th, 2022 at 6:22:53 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

You keep saying Bitcoin will hit $250,000 next year. I don't suppose you'd like to wager on it?



Don't you think he is already wagering on it if he is buying bitcoin?
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He'll be so rich a couple of hundred won't make a difference in his net worth, but it would go a long way toward his credibility. I'll even drop the price to $200,000 by the end of 2024.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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November 24th, 2022 at 6:58:32 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

You keep saying Bitcoin will hit $250,000 next year. I don't suppose you'd like to wager on it?



Don't you think he is already wagering on it if he is buying bitcoin?
link to original post



He'll be so rich a couple of hundred won't make a difference in his net worth, but it would go a long way toward his credibility. I'll even drop the price to $200,000 by the end of 2024.
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So let me get this straight.

If Bitcoin goes to $199,000 by the end of 2024 you will win your wager and point out how correct you were that Bitcoin has no future?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee

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