online roulette

Quote: WongBo

i am not confusing the two,
i am just saying that the staff would view either with the same level of skepticism.

I would hope so. My experience is, the dealers
and the pit know as much about roulette as
an average player does, thats to say, not much.
Ask a pit guy if he knows what a Martingale is.
Or even what the house edge for roulette is,
99% don't even know that, I've asked. But ask
when their next break is and they always get
it right.

Saying the pit is skeptical is like saying my dog
is skeptical of how I drive my car. What does he
know about it.

well, you do have a point there.
lol.
but i am not the only one who is skeptical.
like i said in the religion thread:
extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
i would settle for any evidence
other than the drivel posted by the blowhards on rouletteforum and vlsroulette

The proof is out there, but you have to go actively
looking for it. Nobody is going to deliver it to your
door like a pizza, why would they. You don't mean
squat to them. And it has much more to it than just
the diamonds, thats a very small part of it, in fact.

Quote: buzzpaff

I can predict which numbered slot the ball will finally rest in 2.6315789% of the time.

1 out of 38 spins.

1 out of 36 spins sounds good though (2.777777%), free drinks and no money lost at the table flat betting. :)

I wonder what a vb players record for high percentage has been for one session?

Quote: Wong Bo

i have played enough roulette to know that the pins throw the ball all over the wheel

Actually the deflectors (pins) are a benefit to the vb player. At one time, most wheels had 16 deflectors. This enabled VB players find a dominant ball drop region on more wheels. These days, most low profile wheels have been engineered with only eight deflectors in order to help reduce predictability.

-Keyser

And yet I continue to win money. For every move there is a counter-move. OOPs make that a visual ballistics move.

Quote: Keyser

Actually the deflectors (pins) are a benefit to the vb player. At one time, most wheels had 16 deflectors. This enabled VB players find a dominant ball drop region on more wheels. These days, most low profile wheels have been engineered with only eight deflectors in order to help reduce predictability.

-Keyser

Hey, Keyser, you seem like a thoughtful guy. You obviously must keep track of your performance. So using your VB technique, what player advantage do you get? 2%? 5%? You make a claim, and I'll devise a bet against you!

Depending on the make and model of wheel, density of the ball, strength of the dominant ball drop point, rotor speed, etc any where from 5% to almost 100% edge

Quote: Keyser

Depending on the make and model of wheel, density of the ball, strength of the dominant ball drop point, rotor speed, etc any where from 5% to almost 100% edge

You have piqued my interest. Do these "VB friendly" wheels exist at any Las Vegas casinos? Or anywhere in the USA? Given real conditions, how much money per hour can you make, on average, at one of these wheels?

Quote: SOOPOO

Given real conditions, how much money per hour can you make, on average, at one of these wheels?

Keyser has been asked this question for years on other
forums and he never answers. I'm real interested to
see what he says.

Yes, several locations in the US. I'm in LV now.

Could you tell me which casino so I can liquidate my holds immediately ?

Surely, provided that you can tell me which horse track you frequent so that I can buy stock.

Churchill Downs. Now put up or shut up. Either option is accessible !

Quote: Keyser

Yes, several locations in the US. I'm in LV now.

Any chance you'll be in Vegas during the HB challenge weigh in (Oct 17 - 21)? Or do you ever make your way to Niagara Falls (either US or Canada)?

Saw some youtube videos showing VB. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH0vYWCzSz4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86vw5G-tiGY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvp3CDS8jX4

They seemed to be fairly accurate with the prediction. If this is real, then there should be many roulette players making tons of money using VB. Do you know of any such players? I certainly would be interested to see them doing VB in a real casino with my own eyes. And I would be certainly interested to learn if it is a real skill as currently I only depend on probability.

Quote: MBSplayer

as currently I only depend on probability.

Can I finish the sentence......


"I play roulette, and currently I only depend on probability..... to eventually wipe out my bankroll....."

Quote: SOOPOO

Can I finish the sentence......


"I play roulette, and currently I only depend on probability..... to eventually wipe out my bankroll....."

I think I like my version better .... to eventually wipe out my bankroll after recouping multiples of the bankroll :)

Let's face it, for us the mortal souls, the probability can never reach 1.0, just have to have a system as close as possible to 1.0. With a probability of 0.9999 and a little of luck, you may even not encounter the loss of even once in your life time.

removed
silly

Sally

Thanks, Sally, for the detailed analysis of 14 step martingale. Well, I don't play 18/37, mine ranges from 24/37 to 30/37 and I certainly do not intend to win just one unit with increasing steps, but rather, I aim to win many folds of one unit with progressive steps. So in this way, you don't need to win so many times in a row to double the bankroll. But I do agree that you do need quite a bit of luck to win consistently to double the bankroll. And I also think that by just aiming to get 1-2% of bankroll each day is less risky than say trying for 10-20% of bankroll per day. By doing this 1-2% approach, it is kind of like "hit and run". To make 10-20% of bankroll, one has to play for a very long time in one day and he/she may get tired and make mistakes in betting. Now, let's say I am lucky enough to double my bankroll, I can keep my original bankroll and playing with the profit or casino money. Now I can afford to be more relax and aim for say 4-5% bankroll per day. It is more risky but definitely shorten the number of days to double another bankroll.

Quote: EvenBob

And what do you know about it? I've known Keyser
for years, he even wrote a book on biased wheel play years
ago thats very hard if not impossible to get now.
How many books have you written?

Is not biased wheel play a thing of the past?
Casinos can know, if they want, as fast as any player if their wheel is biased.

Keyser talks about VB play.
He is not the only one that knows a lot about the subject.

Is His information as good or better than Dr. Thorp's in Chapter 4 Roulette of "Math of Gambling"?
It is an old book.

It also seems to be well known, but maybe not followed, that all a casino has to say "No More Bets" and then spin the ball.
Advantage: casino

Even with bias and player advantage, a player still needs a very large bankroll to get past variance.

Those that are successful in beating the casinos and having an advantage,
keep the information to themselves and to a select few in their syndicate.

Unless you have a lot of money to add or some AP play, legal or cheating, like is very common in Roulette,
good luck being included into any syndicate.

Quote: MBSplayer

But I do agree that you do need quite a bit of luck to win consistently to double the bankroll. And I also think that by just aiming to get 1-2% of bankroll each day is less risky than say trying for 10-20% of bankroll per day. By doing this 1-2% approach, it is kind of like "hit and run".

Hit and run still requires "X wins in a row".
It does not matter if you win 1% today or 10% tomorrow.
Every spin is an independent event and you think that playing "hit and run" increases your probability of winning.

It does not. And it never can.

You have shown no math to any system of yours.
This is the place to show it. There are some good math people here.
Empirical data can only go so far in a small sample space.

I am willing to bet you, because I am also from the east and I know our people,
that your system would easily fail the majority if tried by 1 million other players attempting to double any starting bankroll.
Against actual recorded 37 slot roulette spins.
I have 3 million of them.

The casinos would love you for that.

Show your math.
You could end up winning my $1

Quote: MBSplayer

Like for e.g. Covering 30 numbers which give you a probability of 81.1% of winning. To lose a consecutive of 5 times in a row is unseen by me in real casino!

You then have not played long enough or have not given great attention to that event for every spin.

In any 100 spin set

0.018753353115294 is the probability of at least 1 lose streak of 5.
That is 1 in 53.32
or out of 1 million players playing for 100 spins (not impossible)
18,755 on average would see that event that you have never seen.

500 spins (in any order, 100 today, 200 next week, etc)
0.093009683415679 is the probability of at least 1 lose streak of 5.
That is 1 in 10.75

or out of 1 million players playing for 500 spins (not impossible)
93,024 on average would see that event that you have never seen.

Again, just because you have not seen a certain event, it does not equate to everyone not seeing the event with the same empirical frequency.

If I may just add to that, if you were to look at my, "Wizard of Odds Games," thread in General Discussion, you'll see where I had results of either 00, 16 or 32 for eight spins in a row. That's an RNG doing that!!! There's a screenshot. If those happen to not be included in your 30 numbers, that's you losing eight in a row.

The five spin miss thing is unlikely only to the extent that you probably would not go up to a wheel and experience that on your first go, but if you're there long enough you're going to see it...very likely before your system can even sustain one failure and still have you ahead.

Quote: MBSplayer

I ever saw one player on roulette doing a negative progression on the middle row which pays 2 to 1. In one play, he went from $25 and he had to progress to $800 (8 consecutive loss) before he finally won and he let everyone in that table knows that he won $500.

Impressive.
He was doing an intelligent Martingale since one does not have to make up to a $800 bet on a 2 to 1 payoff bet for 8 losses in a row.
Too bad you did not show his actual bets and progression at every step.

What middle row pays 2 to 1?

Do you mean a section or a dozen?
Or a column?
Thanks

Quote: mustangsally

Impressive.
He was doing an intelligent Martingale since one does not have to make up to a $800 bet on a 2 to 1 payoff bet for 8 losses in a row.
Too bad you did not show his actual bets and progression at every step.

What middle row pays 2 to 1?

Do you mean a section or a dozen?
Or a column?
Thanks

We can gather from this that if he hit the 2:1 pay on a bet of $800 and it put him up $500 ($1,600 won on bet) that he was down $1,100 prior to the bet of $800.

It's just a matter of figuring out a progression by which being down $1100 going into the ninth spin makes sense.

The average bet for those eight spins was $137.50.

It's not even close to a Martingale, in my opinion, because the amount won is much more than a single starting unit or two starting units given the payout.

Quote: MBSplayer

Like for e.g. Covering 30 numbers which give you a probability of 81.1% of winning. To lose a consecutive of 5 times in a row is unseen by me in real casino!

Unseen?
This is highly laughable.

High winning probabilities means nothing.

You also mention you use a negative progression.

It is all about the bet and the bankroll needed to catch a winning step.
Looks like you can risk a lot of money trying to win a minimum 6 units along the way.
The table below shows each step, how many units per number is bet, the bank needed and the net winnings.

Looks like one needs 7770 units to win 6 units after 3 losses in a row.
Highly unlikely that this bet (6480 units) is ever made.

I hope you do not make this bet often since you do not understand how often it can lose 3, 4 or 5 times in a row in X number of spins.

Spin	#s Bet	unit	bet	bank	net	win	loss	net
1	30	1	30	30	6	35	29	6
2	30	6	180	210	6	210	174	36-30
3	30	36	1080	1290	6	1260	1044	216-210
4	30	216	6480	7770	6	7560	6264	1296-1290
5	30	1296	38880	46650	6	45360	37584	7776-7770

Quote: mustangsally

Is not biased wheel play a thing of the past?
.

Its long gone. The old wheels had Mt Everest inclines
where the ball fell towards the pockets, and high frets
that snatched the ball in like a vacuum cleaner. The
new wheels have a gentle incline and the pockets have
no frets at all, just little scooped out indentations that
make the thing look like the huncap on a car.

Quote: mustangsally

Impressive.
He was doing an intelligent Martingale since one does not have to make up to a $800 bet on a 2 to 1 payoff bet for 8 losses in a row.
Too bad you did not show his actual bets and progression at every step.

What middle row pays 2 to 1?

Do you mean a section or a dozen?
Or a column?
Thanks

He was betting on the middle column all the times, so for 8 consecutive spins, the ball landed on either the left or right column. I can't recall the precise bets he placed for those spins but I know he increased progressively. The chance of hitting a single column is about 1/3, so if one can stand a negative progression of about 12 steps then the chance is good to come out ahead. Again, this strategy requires a high bankroll. As column pays 2:1, it is not necessary to double on the betting after each loss, a smaller increment of 1.5 times of the initial unit will do.

Quote: Keyser

Surely, provided that you can tell me which horse track you frequent so that I can buy stock.

Churchill Down and you still have not put-up or shut-up. But then again you never do when challenged. LOSER !!

What challenge?

Is this a pissing contest, horse racing contest, or a foot race? :)

He's referring to the weight loss challenge on Oct 17. If
you're going to be there giving VB demo's, I'll make
sure to attend. I think I know better, however.

Demos? Why would I give demos to people that I don't know?

Regarding the weightloss challenge: There's likely a loose correlation between weight and post count on various internet forums.

Quote: MBSplayer

Am I right to say professional gamblers do not play online? They only play in real casinos.

Outside of Poker, sportsbook, and handicapping the thoroughbred racehorse, probably. Of course, those three types of betting probably account for the overwhelming majority of professional gamblers, depending on how we define the term (a number of "professional gamblers" may do a lot of gambling, but also have income from writing, publishing, consulting, etc.).

I also wanted to mention; if you want to see an online table game that looks and feels rigged (but almost certainly isn't, especially because it's a software demo that can't be played for money), try the free Fan Tan demo here. No, that's not really how Fan Tan is played (the version presented here makes it look like the dealer explicitly chooses which bets they want to win). Their Sic bo game is animated oddly, too (no point in even covering the dome if the dice aren't shaken until after bets are placed, and the layout seems to be presented from the dealer's perspective rather than the player's). I mostly just mention those games as examples of how something can be almost guaranteed to make the enduser feel like gaffing is taking place, even though it wouldn't make any sense for it to be, since no actual money is involved.

Quote: mustangsally

In order to double the 16,383 unit starting bankroll, you need to win 16,383 times in a row.
99.9911%^16,383 = 23.396674% success rate. Not impossible by any means, but the odds are against the one person attempt.
76.603326% is the failure rate in doubling your bankroll.

Even if you just wanted to win 50% of your starting bankroll that would still require 8,191 wins in a row.
99.9911%^8,191 = 48.372253% success rate.
51.627747% is the failure rate in increasing your bankroll just 50%.


And you think you can win 5X your bankroll before losing one bankroll.
23.396674%^5 = 0.000701085 or
1 in 1,426.4

Sally says for you, ain't going to happen.
Now you really need to be very lucky!


One needs a lot of luck to be successful for long term system play.
Once you do lose your 16,383 bankroll you will on average have money left over, not enough to start a new 14 step betting system.


Sally

I have to confess I did not think much about Maths when I started playing in casino. I started about 4 years ago at Genting Casino in Malaysia. I remembered my bankroll back then was 10K in Malaysian currency. I was doing system betting, mainly outside bets of dozens that pay 2:1. I remembered the worst loss streaks was 4 and won in the fifth. Thinking back, I was very very lucky to survive the weekend of many hours of playing. I managed to win 40K over the weekend, 4 times the original bankroll. If I knew the maths analyses put forward by Sally, I don't I dare to repeat what I did 4 years ago!

Quote: Keyser

Demos? Why would I give demos to people that I don't know?

Why would you make ridiculous claims to people you don't know?

Ok, take out the word ridiculous... If you are not willing to offer any eveidence to those willing to watch, what is the point of your claims?

You might as well claim you can beat Usain Bolt in a 100 meter race....

I'm willing to BET you your claims are false. I'm willing to put up real money... are you?

" I'm willing to BET you your claims are false. I'm willing to put up real money... are you? "

I hereby nominate you for the " silliest question I ever heard " award of the month. Of course he is not willing
to put up real money.

Here is the thing about roulette. There are two basic groups of serious players. There are "System" players, and there are "Physics" players. Both tend to really dislike one another. Each claiming that the other is crazy or full of crap. Kinda like how Magicians hate Psychics and debunk their "Supernatural" powers and then conversely Magicians get their tricks exposed.

I'm more into the AP/Physics side of things. I have gotten in huge fights with Ken (mrjjj) on other forums (VLS) about it. The one thing I respect about him and Evenbob is the fact that they have a healthy dislike for system sellers, as do I. But I just don't think their systems work, just like they don't think my VB works. That's unlikely to change, and it is even more unlikely that the two sides would ever meet in a peaceful and open atmosphere and exchange ideas. I'm more open to it now, but there is a lot of distrust between the two groups and understandably so. Anyway, I was pretty shocked to read about Evenbob actually giving credit to Keyser the way he did in this thread. That must not have been an easy thing to do. If you spent a few years on some of the roulette forums like these guys have, you'd see what I mean.

All AP's have this need to try play as long and as much as they can, while staying under the casinos radar. They aren't in a hurry to advertise what they do, how they do it, where they do it, etc. I understand that there are well known AP's like the Wizard and others who do talk about it. But for every one of those there are hundreds, possibly thousands of AP's or aspiring AP's that keep to themselves. Of those, only a small (and I mean small) fraction of them are as knowledgeable or as good as Keyser. I have met him in LV a number of times and I can tell you, he is very VERY good at what he does. It's at a level that only very few can comprehend.

I understand that there is a need for a burden of proof in the scientific community. But on the other hand, no one should be obligated ever to hand over their secrets to every naysayer. If that were the case, then every casino would ask every player how they win and ban those who gave answers they didn't like. There are also casino employees, many of whom are active on this forum. In my mind, like Bob's I'm sure, they are the enemy. I am not obligated to hand over my techniques, especially if I suspect that they are clearly not that widely known, over to people directly involved in gaming or gaming protection. Come on guys!

I may not understand Bob or Ken's claims. I am dubious to say the least. But suppose they posted their best systems to prove themselves, and "Holy crap!" their is a loophole they found and are exploiting (stranger things have happened). They have everything to lose, and the best case scenario they gain a little respect on the INTERNET of all places. Advantage roulette players can prove their methods are sound with simple math. This is a gambling forum with a very strong base in math. Any number of people here could figure it out. It's not exactly unknown information. Being able to learn it is easy. Being able to do it is tougher. Being able to do it at highly successful level is quite another.

But all of us (VB players) have had to do our own due diligence in terms of learning about Advantage Play when it comes to roulette. I learned a lot from people, like Keyser, who answered my questions. Good questions get good answers, basic questions get basic answers, and public questions, get public answers. Ultimately it's a trust thing. It's really not that hard to understand the lack of disclosure on public forums. It's like credit card info!

Just my two cents.

and while the two sides fight it out the casinos sit back laughing as they rake in all the chips...

Quote: Soopoo

Ok, take out the word ridiculous... If you are not willing to offer any eveidence to those willing to watch, what is the point of your claims?

It's not "eveidence", it's evidence. It's not "rediculous", it's ridiculous.

I've backed up my statements with additional proof. I have offered links to the wheel engineer for TCS Huxely - where you can find case studies and additional links. I have explained how and why it's possible. My statements are not "ridiculous" in any way. What would be ridiculous would be me going out of my way to meet up with some strange guy that is riding on a scooter through the casino, and then standing around a wheel for hours at a time while attempting to explain VB to someone that couldn't mentally grasp it in the first place, after having read about it on the internet.

Quote: Heather

Outside of Poker, sportsbook, and handicapping the thoroughbred racehorse, probably. Of course, those three types of betting probably account for the overwhelming majority of professional gamblers,

Sorry Heather, but there are not any professional gamblers playing the horses and winning over the long run. That would be beyond absurd. The horses are a sucker's bet. The house edge is far too high for gamblers to win regularly. That's like saying that there are professional big six or keno players. Unless they can exploit the rebate process, then they can not win in the long run.

-Keyser

Quote: WongBo

and while the two sides fight it out the casinos sit back laughing as they rake in all the chips...

The casino always gets the chips, whether at the table or at the cage. So yes, you are right.

Quote: MarieBicurie

The casino always gets the chips, whether at the table or at the cage. So yes, you are right.

I was thinking the same thing. Win or lose, the casino
always gets the chips back. And of course they're
laughing, they don't know they just got hit by an AP.
Why would they?

Quote: MarieBicurie

I was pretty shocked to read about Evenbob actually giving credit to Keyser

I've read his now defunct and useless book on biased
wheel play. He obviously knows what he's doing in
that dept. Too bad all of the biased wheels are long
gone. Must have been fun while it lasted. And no,
don't ask me for the book, it was on my old computer
that went belly up last year. Oh well..

Look at the steep incline from the ball track to the pockets
on this old 32" wheel. Look at the high metal frets
between the pockets.



Now look at a modern Huxley Starburst wheel. The
incline is almost gone and no frets at all. These wheels
are far more random than the old wheels and aren't
subject to any bias at all.

Quote: MarieBicurie

Here is the thing about roulette. There are two basic groups of serious players. There are "System" players, and there are "Physics" players. Both tend to really dislike one another. Each claiming that the other is crazy or full of crap. Kinda like how Magicians hate Psychics and debunk their "Supernatural" powers and then conversely Magicians get their tricks exposed.

I'm more into the AP/Physics side of things. I have gotten in huge fights with Ken (mrjjj) on other forums (VLS) about it. The one thing I respect about him and Evenbob is the fact that they have a healthy dislike for system sellers, as do I. But I just don't think their systems work, just like they don't think my VB works. That's unlikely to change, and it is even more unlikely that the two sides would ever meet in a peaceful and open atmosphere and exchange ideas. I'm more open to it now, but there is a lot of distrust between the two groups and understandably so. Anyway, I was pretty shocked to read about Evenbob actually giving credit to Keyser the way he did in this thread. That must not have been an easy thing to do. If you spent a few years on some of the roulette forums like these guys have, you'd see what I mean.

All AP's have this need to try play as long and as much as they can, while staying under the casinos radar. They aren't in a hurry to advertise what they do, how they do it, where they do it, etc. I understand that there are well known AP's like the Wizard and others who do talk about it. But for every one of those there are hundreds, possibly thousands of AP's or aspiring AP's that keep to themselves. Of those, only a small (and I mean small) fraction of them are as knowledgeable or as good as Keyser. I have met him in LV a number of times and I can tell you, he is very VERY good at what he does. It's at a level that only very few can comprehend.

I understand that there is a need for a burden of proof in the scientific community. But on the other hand, no one should be obligated ever to hand over their secrets to every naysayer. If that were the case, then every casino would ask every player how they win and ban those who gave answers they didn't like. There are also casino employees, many of whom are active on this forum. In my mind, like Bob's I'm sure, they are the enemy. I am not obligated to hand over my techniques, especially if I suspect that they are clearly not that widely known, over to people directly involved in gaming or gaming protection. Come on guys!

I may not understand Bob or Ken's claims. I am dubious to say the least. But suppose they posted their best systems to prove themselves, and "Holy crap!" their is a loophole they found and are exploiting (stranger things have happened). They have everything to lose, and the best case scenario they gain a little respect on the INTERNET of all places. Advantage roulette players can prove their methods are sound with simple math. This is a gambling forum with a very strong base in math. Any number of people here could figure it out. It's not exactly unknown information. Being able to learn it is easy. Being able to do it is tougher. Being able to do it at highly successful level is quite another.

But all of us (VB players) have had to do our own due diligence in terms of learning about Advantage Play when it comes to roulette. I learned a lot from people, like Keyser, who answered my questions. Good questions get good answers, basic questions get basic answers, and public questions, get public answers. Ultimately it's a trust thing. It's really not that hard to understand the lack of disclosure on public forums. It's like credit card info!

Just my two cents.

THIS POST BELONGS IN THE GAMBLER'S HALL OF FAME!

Quote: CrapsForever

THIS POST BELONGS IN THE GAMBLER'S HALL OF FAME!

Is Pete Rose there?

Quote: MarieBicurie

Is Pete Rose there?

Nope, he's still in Vegas signing baseballs. He signed
a multi million dollar contract last year to do 5 more
years of it. He was at the Luxor last I heard.

Pete Rose, Barry Bonds,& Roger Clemons. Baseball hall of fame Trifecta

How do you increase your bankroll to a significant amount, e.g. 2X even before you step into casino? I have the answer but like to hear from others first before I reveal the answer :)

Quote: MBSplayer

How do you increase your bankroll to a significant amount, e.g. 2X even before you step into casino? I have the answer but like to hear from others first before I reveal the answer :)

Go to an ATM?

2x without going into a casino? Why would you even go? just repeat that doubling daily. Even if you start with a penny, yopu will be a MILLIONAIREin just a month !