Drawing ticket strategy

Assuming you are one of 25 winners who gets to select their prize off the board, which the amount is hidden of course, are you better off going 1st, middle or last. There are only a limited high dollar prizes, up tp $1000, and the others are $50 or $100. Obviously if the later you go and the high dollar prizes are still out there, you have a better blind selection, but again you may not get an opportunity to select a high prize if they happen to get picked. Looks like there are more prizes to pick than the contestants so that makes it even harder.

Quote: Vegasrider

Assuming you are one of 25 winners who gets to select their prize off the board, which the amount is hidden of course, are you better off going 1st, middle or last. There are only a limited high dollar prizes, up tp $1000, and the others are $50 or $100. Obviously if the later you go and the high dollar prizes are still out there, you have a better blind selection, but again you may not get an opportunity to select a high prize if they happen to get picked. Looks like there are more prizes to pick than the contestants so that makes it even harder.

The average prize state is variable, but since you have no idea when the individual prizes will come out, it makes no difference when you go. The only exception would be if there was some reason to believe the good prizes would come out early, or late.

Quote: Vegasrider

Assuming you are one of 25 winners who gets to select their prize off the board, which the amount is hidden of course, are you better off going 1st, middle or last. There are only a limited high dollar prizes, up tp $1000, and the others are $50 or $100. Obviously if the later you go and the high dollar prizes are still out there, you have a better blind selection, but again you may not get an opportunity to select a high prize if they happen to get picked. Looks like there are more prizes to pick than the contestants so that makes it even harder.

Are the amounts hidden until all are picked? Or do people know their prize right away (or are they publicly displayed what remains). If so you would not know what is left anyway.

I don't think it should make a difference either way.

Quote: Mission146

The average prize state is variable, but since you have no idea when the individual prizes will come out, it makes no difference when you go. The only exception would be if there was some reason to believe the good prizes would come out early, or late.

This is correct: without any "inside information", the order of selection is immaterial.

Let's consider a simpler example: only two prizes, $1K and $0.

If only one contestant, he obviously has a 50/50 chance of getting the prize, so his EV is $500.

If two contestants, A and B, we have four possible and equally likely outcomes:

1. A goes first and gets $1K: B gets $0
2. A goes first and gets $0: B gets $1K
3. B goes first and gets $1K: A gets $0
4. B goes first and gets $0: A gets $1K

Thus, half the time A gets $1K; the other half, $0: A's EV is still $500, as is B's.

By the way, whether or not the prizes are revealed immediately has no effect on the EV.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

I’ve played this game, on a huge scale, with thousands of players and tens of thousands of pulls. Lowest ticket is $300, highest is $30000.

The one year we went third from last we pulled a $30000 ticket. Most years we were right around average. We usually have between 20 and 30 pulls. The top teams with the most pulls have around 100-150, some teams have 1. One year with 22 pulls we had 20 pulls of $300 and two of $1000. That sucked. Most times the average worked out to around $600/pull. Lots of 300s, 500s, 750s, and 1000s. Some 3000s. A few 5000s, fewer 10000s, five 20000s and five 30000s.

Quote: Gandler

Are the amounts hidden until all are picked? Or do people know their prize right away (or are they publicly displayed what remains). If so you would not know what is left anyway.

I don't think it should make a difference either way.

Yes, the amounts are hidden behind the magnetic placard, once the placard is selected it goes back on the board in its original location but the prize is revealed, so you can see what prizes have been drawn and what prizes are still live. I generally have gone last since I’m not the type of person who enjoys waiting in line. I have 30 minutes to draw so I show up at the last minute. There are more prizes than winners so even If I’m last, I still have dozens to choose from.

I have come to a conclusion that it’s better to pick 1st or earlier than later because if there are only one grand prize and lots of lesser prize, you are drawing “live” for that prize vs drawing for a prize that is already gone.

Quote: Vegasrider

Assuming you are one of 25 winners who gets to select their prize off the board, which the amount is hidden of course, are you better off going 1st, middle or last. There are only a limited high dollar prizes, up tp $1000, and the others are $50 or $100. Obviously if the later you go and the high dollar prizes are still out there, you have a better blind selection, but again you may not get an opportunity to select a high prize if they happen to get picked. Looks like there are more prizes to pick than the contestants so that makes it even harder.

It doesn't make any difference, whether the prizes are revealed as picked or not.

What really sucks is when a casino has a drawing that includes multiple prizes and a grand prize, but, you're only eligible to win one prize and they start with the lower prizes first.