Probability of loss

I understand the odds of any one game. Here is my question. For COMPS - rooms/food/beverage etc they “insist” that you spend 4 hours a day gambling at some average bet. Let’s say for example its $500/hand. I understand what my Theo is for said average over some period o time. What I’m curious about is what it my probability of loss over 3 days at 4 hours so 12 hours of play. Is my probability of loss nearly assured, which is why they are very clear about the amount of time they want your ass planted at the table?

If you are playing a game where you are expected to lose, then your only chance of winding up ahead over all is to either have the luck or skill to press your bet into enough wins to end up so far ahead that the gradual attrition due to theoretical loss doesn't get you in the future.

It's like, if you're lucky enough to hit a million dollar hit on a slot machine early enough in your career to be able to walk away ahead. If you were playing only low end slots before and keep playing low ends slots later (don't increase your bet to new levels), the chances of the house ever getting their money back are slim.

For me, at table games, I've done extremely well over time (over a VERY long time, we're talking many years) with stopping while ahead per session. Also I don't increase my bet just because I've had a killer trip, which I've had many where I have won massive amounts relative to my average bet.

So to get back to your Q: if you just putz along and never win more than average then probably over time you'll lose the theoretical. But if you do win big, hold on to it (walk with it) and don't increase your bet after winning big, they're not necessarily going to get it back from you and you'll wind up an over all winner. Money management.

So...nothing is assured...not winning, not losing.

Hi, Ikold. Welcome to the forum with your excellent question.

I believe that this is a matter of variance and that the longer you play, the more hands/wagers you play, the closer your real loss will be to your theoretical loss.

E.g. Place one massive wager on red on Roulette would have a 50% chance of losing theo or more, and getting you the comp, but thousands of $1 wagers on red, instead, you would closely approximate to losing close to theo and little chance of ending up ahead.

I reckon you need to use the standard deviation formula, though I'm happy to stand corrected.

Apologies for my shoddy maths and explanation.


(OverallSD in $) = (WagerCt)^(0.5) * SingleWagerSD * WagerSizeIn$

So, estimate the total number of wagers and requisite wager size and plug in the SD and Theo

after that number of hands you will have, with 68% probability

Overall loss = HouseEdge * WagerCt * WagerSize +/- OverallSD

or for 90% probability
Overall loss = HouseEdge * WagerCt * WagerSize +/- (2 * OverallSD)

A better mathematician will be along shortly $:o)

Quote: MDawg

... have the luck or skill to press your bet into enough wins

Yes. Luck. No. Not skill.

Note to the OP. MDawg believes that he has the skill to identify winning streaks and exploit them. He is usually rightly derided for such nonsense.

My views are based on experience. Results.

Most of these guys are just posting based on theory. Most are sitting at home haven't gambled a nickel in years. True, can't argue with theory intrinsically, but you also can't argue with results. All you may do is argue about why the results came around.

Quote: MDawg

If you are playing a game where you are expected to lose, then your only chance of winding up ahead over all is to either have the luck or skill to press your bet into enough wins to end up so far ahead that the gradual attrition due to theoretical loss doesn't get you in the future.

Well said.

You should make this your signature.

By the way if you want to send me a private message I'll give you a list of members whose posts to block. Makes life much smoother!

Quote: MDawg

My views are based on experience. Results.

Most of these guys are just posting based on theory. Most are sitting at home haven't gambled a nickel in years. True, can't argue with theory intrinsically, but you also can't argue with results. All you may do is argue about why the results came around.

You epitomize everything this forum represents. NOT.

Quote: MDawg

By the way if you want to send me a private message I'll give you a list of members whose posts to block. Makes life much smoother!

Interesting how everytime someone says something disparaging about one of your posts, you immediately mention how glad you are to have them blocked.

How are you seeing all these posts from blocked users?

Quote: michael99000

Interesting how everytime someone says something disparaging about one of your posts, you immediately mention how glad you are to have them blocked.

How are you seeing all these posts from blocked users?

The same way he sees positive results on his gambling balance sheet. It shines thru a filter of falsehoods.

Quote: MDawg

My views are based on experience. Results.

Most of these guys are just posting based on theory. Most are sitting at home haven't gambled a nickel in years. True, can't argue with theory intrinsically, but you also can't argue with results. All you may do is argue about why the results came around.

Many other people provide both theory and data. You provide neither. Going on the internet and claiming to win millions is not a result. Defending that the reason you must win millions at casinos by claiming that other people have never gambled are not results either.

How many rounds per hour you’re playing on average? I’m assuming a 0.5% HE. For 60 or 100....

60 RPH
SD: 1.15 * (60*12)^0.5 = 30.85 units
EV: (60*12)*(-0.005) = -3.6
Z-Score (to break even) = 3.6/30.85 = 0.1166
Probability: 1 - integrate from -infinity to (0.1166) (1/((2*pi)^0.5)) * e^((-u^2)/2) du = 45.35%


100 RPH
SD: 39.83 units
EV: -6
Z-Score: 6/39.83 = 0.1506
Probability: 44.01%

Someone check my maffs to verify if you want

I dunno for sure, but I assume they are talking about me.


https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/7bd71de7-8bb0-415f-b00c-7397525f8450
GET OUT THERE YOURSELVES!

STOP FEEDING OFF ME!


-

One post above is not blocked. Do I need to block this guy too? Something about winning millions...where did I claim to win millions? I just said that I was ahead over all back then when I used to play average 3K per hand, took a hiatus of about a decade because I was too busy to gamble, and now that I play average 300 per hand, I am ahead over all still including completely ahead (no losing trips yet, post-hiatus). The overall figure ahead is substantial but it is not millions.

I do recall some post from some guy before I started blocking about how I should have lost a million.

STOP BEATING IT!
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/6df03946-7b23-48ee-ae87-65dafe465ed4

Quote: TomG

Many other people provide both theory and data. You provide neither. Going on the internet and claiming to win millions is not a result. Defending that the reason you must win millions at casinos by claiming that other people have never gambled are not results either.

He has told us the 2 keys to winning millions:

1) press your bet when on a hot streak

2) walk away when you’re ahead.

Quote: MDawg

I dunno for sure, but I assume they are talking about me.


https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/7bd71de7-8bb0-415f-b00c-7397525f8450
GET OUT THERE YOURSELVES!

STOP FEEDING OFF ME!

Additional confirmation that you are the sock of who I thought you were.

Quote: MaxPen

Quote: MDawg

I dunno for sure, but I assume they are talking about me.


https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/7bd71de7-8bb0-415f-b00c-7397525f8450
GET OUT THERE YOURSELVES!

STOP FEEDING OFF ME!

Additional confirmation that you are the sock of who I thought you were.

I think so too. And it ain't Nathan.

good question. lots of pieces to the puzzle are missing and maybe you did that on purpose.

Quote: Ikold

I understand the odds of any one game. Here is my question. For COMPS - rooms/food/beverage etc they “insist” that you spend 4 hours a day gambling at some average bet. Let’s say for example its $500/hand. I understand what my Theo is for said average over some period o time.

call that the 'ev' or expected value

Quote: Ikold

What I’m curious about is what it my probability of loss over 3 days at 4 hours so 12 hours of play.

need to know the variance of the game you play. or games if you play more than one, and many do just that.

Quote: Ikold

Is my probability of loss nearly assured, ...

no
depending on the many factors of house edge, variance, the number of bets and the average wager
it is going to be around 55% to 65% (probability of loss) for 720 to 1200 bets resolved.

in Excel it would be something close to =1-NORMSDIST(ev/sd)

$500 per hand x 12 x 60 x .005 is $1800, which is how much the casino will take from a player like you over 12 hours, on average. The casino will return a portion of this as a comp.

Some players (about 45%) will come out ahead after 12 hours and 55% will lose money. I doubt the casino cares about that as long as they get their half point juice on the total handle over the long haul, which they will.