Ikold
Ikold
Joined: Jul 20, 2019
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July 20th, 2019 at 10:31:38 AM permalink
I understand the odds of any one game. Here is my question. For COMPS - rooms/food/beverage etc they ďinsistĒ that you spend 4 hours a day gambling at some average bet. Letís say for example its $500/hand. I understand what my Theo is for said average over some period o time. What Iím curious about is what it my probability of loss over 3 days at 4 hours so 12 hours of play. Is my probability of loss nearly assured, which is why they are very clear about the amount of time they want your ass planted at the table?
MDawg
MDawg
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July 20th, 2019 at 11:13:37 AM permalink
If you are playing a game where you are expected to lose, then your only chance of winding up ahead over all is to either have the luck or skill to press your bet into enough wins to end up so far ahead that the gradual attrition due to theoretical loss doesn't get you in the future.

It's like, if you're lucky enough to hit a million dollar hit on a slot machine early enough in your career to be able to walk away ahead. If you were playing only low end slots before and keep playing low ends slots later (don't increase your bet to new levels), the chances of the house ever getting their money back are slim.

For me, at table games, I've done extremely well over time (over a VERY long time, we're talking many years) with stopping while ahead per session. Also I don't increase my bet just because I've had a killer trip, which I've had many where I have won massive amounts relative to my average bet.

So to get back to your Q: if you just putz along and never win more than average then probably over time you'll lose the theoretical. But if you do win big, hold on to it (walk with it) and don't increase your bet after winning big, they're not necessarily going to get it back from you and you'll wind up an over all winner. Money management.

So...nothing is assured...not winning, not losing.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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July 20th, 2019 at 11:15:04 AM permalink
Hi, Ikold. Welcome to the forum with your excellent question.

I believe that this is a matter of variance and that the longer you play, the more hands/wagers you play, the closer your real loss will be to your theoretical loss.

E.g. Place one massive wager on red on Roulette would have a 50% chance of losing theo or more, and getting you the comp, but thousands of $1 wagers on red, instead, you would closely approximate to losing close to theo and little chance of ending up ahead.

I reckon you need to use the standard deviation formula, though I'm happy to stand corrected.

Apologies for my shoddy maths and explanation.


(OverallSD in $) = (WagerCt)^(0.5) * SingleWagerSD * WagerSizeIn$

So, estimate the total number of wagers and requisite wager size and plug in the SD and Theo

after that number of hands you will have, with 68% probability

Overall loss = HouseEdge * WagerCt * WagerSize +/- OverallSD

or for 90% probability
Overall loss = HouseEdge * WagerCt * WagerSize +/- (2 * OverallSD)

A better mathematician will be along shortly $:o)
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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July 20th, 2019 at 11:19:45 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

... have the luck or skill to press your bet into enough wins



Yes. Luck. No. Not skill.

Note to the OP. MDawg believes that he has the skill to identify winning streaks and exploit them. He is usually rightly derided for such nonsense.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
MDawg
MDawg
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July 20th, 2019 at 11:26:34 AM permalink
My views are based on experience. Results.

Most of these guys are just posting based on theory. Most are sitting at home haven't gambled a nickel in years. True, can't argue with theory intrinsically, but you also can't argue with results. All you may do is argue about why the results came around.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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July 20th, 2019 at 11:36:50 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

If you are playing a game where you are expected to lose, then your only chance of winding up ahead over all is to either have the luck or skill to press your bet into enough wins to end up so far ahead that the gradual attrition due to theoretical loss doesn't get you in the future.



Well said.

You should make this your signature.
MDawg
MDawg
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July 20th, 2019 at 11:40:24 AM permalink
By the way if you want to send me a private message I'll give you a list of members whose posts to block. Makes life much smoother!
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MaxPen
MaxPen
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Thanks for this post from:
ForagerOnceDear
July 20th, 2019 at 11:46:02 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

My views are based on experience. Results.

Most of these guys are just posting based on theory. Most are sitting at home haven't gambled a nickel in years. True, can't argue with theory intrinsically, but you also can't argue with results. All you may do is argue about why the results came around.



You epitomize everything this forum represents. NOT.
michael99000
michael99000
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July 20th, 2019 at 11:58:53 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

By the way if you want to send me a private message I'll give you a list of members whose posts to block. Makes life much smoother!



Interesting how everytime someone says something disparaging about one of your posts, you immediately mention how glad you are to have them blocked.

How are you seeing all these posts from blocked users?
MaxPen
MaxPen
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July 20th, 2019 at 12:04:31 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Interesting how everytime someone says something disparaging about one of your posts, you immediately mention how glad you are to have them blocked.

How are you seeing all these posts from blocked users?



The same way he sees positive results on his gambling balance sheet. It shines thru a filter of falsehoods.

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