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mds
mds
mds
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February 19th, 2014 at 8:01:41 AM permalink
$400,000,000 up for grabs... It is a 1:175,000,000 chance to win. What if I take $100,000,000 and buy tickets. Would that be an advantage? Would my odds be that much better? Is it worth the potential $300,000,000 in profit?
DeMango
DeMango
DeMango
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February 19th, 2014 at 8:03:44 AM permalink
If you had that money why gamble? Buy a casino as your personal ATM.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
bushman
bushman
bushman
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February 19th, 2014 at 8:05:11 AM permalink
Remember, it's $2 a ticket, so you would only be purchasing 50,000,000 tickets. Your odds will still be 1:175,000,000. However, you would have 50,000,000 chances to win. There is discussion in older threads about the EV, etc. I will try to find you the links. Good luck, but, I have already purchased one of the winning tickets ;>) Hope I don't have to share.

*Edit: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/13986-powerball-at-550-million/ This thread should get you started and give you some ideas.
Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
bushman
bushman
bushman
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February 19th, 2014 at 8:06:30 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

If you had that money why gamble? Buy a casino as your personal ATM.



I have often wondered if I would gamble that much money, IF I had it. I am certain I would continue to gamble in LV. Probably would never play the lottery, though.
Never count your winnings at hour 23 of a 24-hour drive.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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February 19th, 2014 at 8:27:31 AM permalink
Quote: mds

$400,000,000 up for grabs... It is a 1:175,000,000 chance to win. What if I take $100,000,000 and buy tickets. Would that be an advantage? Would my odds be that much better? Is it worth the potential $300,000,000 in profit?



$400,000,000 in annuity payments is about $228,000,000 in 2014 dollars. Taxes are about $92,000,000, leaving about $136,800,000. So, even if you don't have to split the jackpot with anyone, you'd be playing at a disadvantage.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
endermike
endermike
endermike
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February 19th, 2014 at 8:53:57 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

$400,000,000 in annuity payments is about $228,000,000 in 2014 dollars. Taxes are about $92,000,000, leaving about $136,800,000. So, even if you don't have to split the jackpot with anyone, you'd be playing at a disadvantage.



Sadly the lower hit payouts don't change the math much. That is shown below.
http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_prizes.asp

(ignoring taxes other than those on the jackpot)

Type of hit Payout Odds are 1 in Value
5w+1r 136,800,000 175,223,510 0.7807
5w 1,000,000 5,153,633 0.1940
4w+1r 10,000 648,976 0.0154
4w 100 19,087 0.0052
3w+1r 100 12245 0.0082
3w 7 360.14 0.0194
2w+1r 7 706.43 0.0099
1w+1r 4 110.81 0.0361
1r 4 55.41 0.0722


And the sum of the last column is 1.1411 (<2, hence sadness)
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
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February 19th, 2014 at 9:03:57 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

$400,000,000 in annuity payments is about $228,000,000 in 2014 dollars. Taxes are about $92,000,000, leaving about $136,800,000. So, even if you don't have to split the jackpot with anyone, you'd be playing at a disadvantage.



Thats right. Its a phony number.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
endermike
endermike
endermike
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February 19th, 2014 at 9:16:08 AM permalink
The strongest argument for not playing the lotto, IMO, is when we consider the utility of various quantities of money. Even if the top prize was 500,000,000 after factoring in the time value of money and taxes and splitting...it still is not worthwhile. What makes it worthwhile is if you get enjoyment from the process (picking your numbers, checking your numbers or seeing in the news where the winner(s) are located, daydreaming about what to do with your winnings, etc.). Those are the utilities which can make lotto worthwhile.
slyther
slyther
slyther
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February 19th, 2014 at 3:55:14 PM permalink
I dunno about you guys, but I'd sure get a heckuva lot of utility when i saw that my numbers came up
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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February 19th, 2014 at 6:12:32 PM permalink
Quote: mds

$400,000,000 up for grabs... It is a 1:175,000,000 chance to win. What if I take $100,000,000 and buy tickets. Would that be an advantage?


How long would it take to buy 50,000,000 tickets? Assuming the draws are four days apart (Saturday to Wednesday, in this case), and assuming you could purchase tickets for the full 96 hours, that would still require about 145 tickets (well, sets of numbers) per second.
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