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IWannaBeAP
IWannaBeAP
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November 28th, 2022 at 5:05:34 PM permalink
Based on what I've read, dice control generally is considered impossible in the typical setting.

But what if... I found a casino where the setting is different.

What if I found a casino where:

1: Dice do not need to hit the back wall
2: Short rolls are fine (Something like 2-3 feet rolls are fine, anything shorter than 2 feet may or may not be allowed)
3: You can roll however you want. Lob, throw, bounce, etc. The only exception is you can not slide the dice (The dice must start in the air, not touching the felt)

Under these conditions, is dice setting possible?

Also educate me about dice setting in general: Does bounce ruin dice setting? Or is there still mathematical +EV even if the dice bounces. (For example, if the 1 face up, and the dice bounces only once, the 6 will never face up). Or, if I can control the dice to bounce only forward, the side numbers will never roll face up.

I'm a complete noob at dice setting but I'm just wondering if I found a +EV environment for dice setting, that's all.
SOOPOO
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November 28th, 2022 at 9:23:50 PM permalink
Quote: IWannaBeAP

Based on what I've read, dice control generally is considered impossible in the typical setting.

But what if... I found a casino where the setting is different.

What if I found a casino where:

1: Dice do not need to hit the back wall
2: Short rolls are fine (Something like 2-3 feet rolls are fine, anything shorter than 2 feet may or may not be allowed)
3: You can roll however you want. Lob, throw, bounce, etc. The only exception is you can not slide the dice (The dice must start in the air, not touching the felt)

Under these conditions, is dice setting possible?

Also educate me about dice setting in general: Does bounce ruin dice setting? Or is there still mathematical +EV even if the dice bounces. (For example, if the 1 face up, and the dice bounces only once, the 6 will never face up). Or, if I can control the dice to bounce only forward, the side numbers will never roll face up.

I'm a complete noob at dice setting but I'm just wondering if I found a +EV environment for dice setting, that's all.
link to original post



I’m firmly in the ‘no human can set the dice to overcome the house edge at craps’ camp. But if you told me you could roll the dice just two feet and not hit a.wall it gets closer to being possible. I find it hard to believe such a place exists in the real world of casinos.
ChumpChange
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November 28th, 2022 at 11:53:51 PM permalink
Bubble Craps is the only game with a serious lack of distance in the toss. The individual bubble craps machine may not allow you to manually push a button when you feel like; Shoot To Win bubble craps gives you a 15 second countdown timer and lets you push a button during that time. It's not the same as setting dice at a table. At a table, I may set the dice for a point of 5, but wind up throwing a bunch of 9's, so I should bet the sister number for that reason.
odiousgambit
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November 29th, 2022 at 4:19:46 AM permalink
Quote: IWannaBeAP

Based on what I've read, dice control generally is considered impossible in the typical setting.

But what if... I found a casino where the setting is different.

What if I found a casino where:

1: Dice do not need to hit the back wall

they don't need to if you roll a 7-out, and that's not a joke, but if the table hasn't been hot, enforcement may get lax. I've never seen the laxness last long, if you keep doing it, it gets noticed no matter what, in my experience.
Quote:

2: Short rolls are fine (Something like 2-3 feet rolls are fine, anything shorter than 2 feet may or may not be allowed)

forget such a short distance if you ask me; just shy of the back wall may be tolerated for a while as I mention above
Quote:

3: You can roll however you want. Lob, throw, bounce, etc. The only exception is you can not slide the dice (The dice must start in the air, not touching the felt)

Under these conditions, is dice setting possible?

one described condition above is too unlikely, but should you encounter it, Soopoo's opinion is mine also

Quote:

Also educate me about dice setting in general: Does bounce ruin dice setting? Or is there still mathematical +EV even if the dice bounces. (For example, if the 1 face up, and the dice bounces only once, the 6 will never face up). Or, if I can control the dice to bounce only forward, the side numbers will never roll face up.

this latter thing is called 'staying on axis' and it is essential that it happen a percentage of the time. Forget keeping one face up with no roll, ain't happening

Quote:

I'm a complete noob at dice setting but I'm just wondering if I found a +EV environment for dice setting, that's all.
link to original post

people with your thinking usually try to find a table that is less bouncy. Also, if you are required to hit the back wall, you can find tables where the alligator bumps are high, leaving a space you can aim for. In that scenario, a perfect toss lands on the back wall and stops dead!

I am in the camp that says dice setting in real casino conditions is theoretically possible but has never been proven to have been done. Most claims do not have the enormous number of rolls it would take to really prove it or even make you wonder [you can't separate it from sheer luck].

I can't make the dice do exactly what I want, so I can't do it, but I keep trying ... one problem, I would never get in enough practice to get better, it's just a fun thing to try in my book.

If you can do it, the very slightest ability to do it will cancel out the casino advantage if you take full odds. To get to +EV of any significance is another matter.
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Nov 29, 2022
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
unJon
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November 29th, 2022 at 5:32:32 AM permalink
Under the OP conditions, yes it is possible to keep the dice on axis enough to be +EV. I can do with an underhand roll, and it and it didn’t take much practice.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
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November 29th, 2022 at 8:28:08 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Under the OP conditions, yes it is possible to keep the dice on axis enough to be +EV. I can do with an underhand roll, and it and it didn’t take much practice.
link to original post



You did this on a real craps table? For how many rolls? With what EV using what theoretical bets?
unJon
unJon 
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November 29th, 2022 at 8:32:56 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Under the OP conditions, yes it is possible to keep the dice on axis enough to be +EV. I can do with an underhand roll, and it and it didn’t take much practice.
link to original post



You did this on a real craps table? For how many rolls? With what EV using what theoretical bets?
link to original post



Not a real craps table. Craps felt over hardwood floor. No back wall. Rolling dice underhand a few feet. Probably rolled 2,000 times. Quit when I tried to bounce off a back wall (no bumps) and the results appeared random to me.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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November 29th, 2022 at 8:47:12 AM permalink
Quote: IWannaBeAP

Based on what I've read, dice control generally is considered impossible in the typical setting.

But what if... I found a casino where the setting is different.

What if I found a casino where:

1: Dice do not need to hit the back wall
2: Short rolls are fine (Something like 2-3 feet rolls are fine, anything shorter than 2 feet may or may not be allowed)
3: You can roll however you want. Lob, throw, bounce, etc. The only exception is you can not slide the dice (The dice must start in the air, not touching the felt)

Under these conditions, is dice setting possible?

Also educate me about dice setting in general: Does bounce ruin dice setting? Or is there still mathematical +EV even if the dice bounces. (For example, if the 1 face up, and the dice bounces only once, the 6 will never face up). Or, if I can control the dice to bounce only forward, the side numbers will never roll face up.

I'm a complete noob at dice setting but I'm just wondering if I found a +EV environment for dice setting, that's all.
link to original post



This forum has an entire category of threads on the topic of Dice Setting: Dice Setting threads I suggest you browse those. There have been some discussions in the past year that are fairly interesting.
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odiousgambit
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November 29th, 2022 at 8:50:54 AM permalink
Quote: unJon


Not a real craps table. Craps felt over hardwood floor. No back wall. Rolling dice underhand a few feet.

If I'm picturing this right, this way the dice spin and then roll the same way, what to me is least chaotically.

When I look at many dice setters, some of whom paid for lessons I suspect, the dice are lobbed in such a way that they spin one way, land and then roll the opposite way of they had just been spinning. Seems to me this is all wrong. However, you have to get your pick on the spot of the table that works for your toss.
Quote:

Probably rolled 2,000 times. Quit when I tried to bounce off a back wall (no bumps) and the results appeared random to me.
link to original post

What percentage of the time would you say you stayed on axis and can you be sure?

What's funny is I will be playing Craps pretty soon and plan to play the darkside, rolling as little myself as possible. What am I doing in this thread? ha!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MDawg
MDawg
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November 29th, 2022 at 9:01:45 AM permalink
I can definitely and verifiably control a dice roll for a few inches, such as on a Monopoly board. Been able to do that since I started playing the game as a child. I am fairly consistent on a backgammon board too but the hardness of the board, I play on a real wood set, makes it harder for sure as the dice will tend to bounce more.

So I'd think that yes, on a regular craps felt, if didn't have to hit the back wall and didn't have to throw for very far, would be possible too. But I don't know of any casino that would allow that. Assuming a standard 12 foot craps table it just seems odd that any casino would allow rolls of a mere 2 feet.
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Mental
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November 29th, 2022 at 10:20:04 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

I can definitely and verifiably control a dice roll for a few inches, such as on a Monopoly board. Been able to do that since I started playing the game as a child. I am fairly consistent on a backgammon board too but the hardness of the board, I play on a real wood set, makes it harder for sure as the dice will tend to bounce more.

So I'd think that yes, on a regular craps felt, if didn't have to hit the back wall and didn't have to throw for very far, would be possible too. But I don't know of any casino that would allow that. Assuming a standard 12 foot craps table it just seems odd that any casino would allow rolls of a mere 2 feet.
link to original post



There is a reason backgammon dice are thrown using a cup that must be shaken before throwing. The distances are to short to provide randomness when thrown by hand.

There are hybrid craps setups that have a very short half-table. I saw these at Maryland Live! but never threw on them myself. If I leaned over the table I could almost touch the back wall.
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DJTeddyBear
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November 29th, 2022 at 10:33:31 AM permalink
I get the feeling that the original poster doesn't understand dice setting / dice control. Frankly, I get that feeling about a lot of people, both online and at the craps table. Specifically, I think the OP's comment about bouncing makes me think he thinks the goal is to have the result be exactly whatever is on top when the dice are set.

As such, I wrote a 1,000 word article about it, here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/37761-dice-control-dice-setting-defined/#post873036
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TinMan
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November 29th, 2022 at 10:57:00 AM permalink
I hesitant to say too much but a gambling podcast i listen to once played a call from a listener who played a craps like game in another country that might fit this description. The game had terrible odds as described. Eg The equivalent of a place bet on all numbers paid even money. But the size of the table and lax rolling rules seem to fit. So I don’t think it’s impossible that this game exists but you may be in for a flight.
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BigBluMiku
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November 29th, 2022 at 11:57:58 AM permalink
Here's a study from UNLV.
They tried various scenarios, including no back wall hits, and found there was no statistical difference between those dice rolls and what the normal random probability is.
SOOPOO
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GamblingDaveIWannaBeAP
November 29th, 2022 at 1:16:48 PM permalink
Quote: BigBluMiku

Here's a study from UNLV.
They tried various scenarios, including no back wall hits, and found there was no statistical difference between those dice rolls and what the normal random probability is.
link to original post



Was a short roll of only two feet allowed?
GamblingDave
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November 30th, 2022 at 4:13:54 AM permalink
iI'll have a read. thanks for sharing
IWannaBeAP
IWannaBeAP
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November 30th, 2022 at 10:46:23 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Under the OP conditions, yes it is possible to keep the dice on axis enough to be +EV. I can do with an underhand roll, and it and it didn’t take much practice.
link to original post



Can you (or anyone else who believes they can roll on axis) elaborate further on rolling on axis?

Given a big enough sample size (1k+ rolls), how many rolls would land without tilting (stay on axis)? Assume you can do short throws with no back walls.
IWannaBeAP
IWannaBeAP
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November 30th, 2022 at 10:48:46 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I get the feeling that the original poster doesn't understand dice setting / dice control. Frankly, I get that feeling about a lot of people, both online and at the craps table. Specifically, I think the OP's comment about bouncing makes me think he thinks the goal is to have the result be exactly whatever is on top when the dice are set.

As such, I wrote a 1,000 word article about it, here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/37761-dice-control-dice-setting-defined/#post873036
link to original post



I will give this a read. You are correct that I know nothing about dice control. All I knew prior to asking these questions, was that "dice control is mostly a scam and if someone could do it they would have proven it to Wiz or some other math authority".

Of course that's under standard conditions. Full length throws that hit back wall.

The conclusion may be different, if the setup is different.
IWannaBeAP
IWannaBeAP
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November 30th, 2022 at 10:52:40 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I get the feeling that the original poster doesn't understand dice setting / dice control. Frankly, I get that feeling about a lot of people, both online and at the craps table. Specifically, I think the OP's comment about bouncing makes me think he thinks the goal is to have the result be exactly whatever is on top when the dice are set.

As such, I wrote a 1,000 word article about it, here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/37761-dice-control-dice-setting-defined/#post873036
link to original post



I just finished reading your post and your charts. Looks like what you said is exactly what I'm looking for. Dice control to result in 4 out of the 6 numbers landing.

Hence the question becomes regarding the feasibility of the dice staying on axis in a non-standard craps setting


I'll also add that I'm ok with just one of the dice staying on axis. I don't need both dice to stay on axis to be +EV.
Mental
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December 1st, 2022 at 4:32:05 AM permalink
Quote: IWannaBeAP

I just finished reading your post and your charts. Looks like what you said is exactly what I'm looking for. Dice control to result in 4 out of the 6 numbers landing.

Hence the question becomes regarding the feasibility of the dice staying on axis in a non-standard craps setting

I'll also add that I'm ok with just one of the dice staying on axis. I don't need both dice to stay on axis to be +EV.
link to original post

My take:

Even when not hitting a back wall:
Experiments say it is not possible except at very short throw lengths.
Common sense says it is not possible except at very short throw lengths.
Simple physics calculations say it is not possible except at very short throw lengths.

The casino industry believes it is not possible at casino-legal throw lengths hitting the back wall.
An observed challenge with a relatively low number of throws ended up about 1 std. dev. below expected value, which proves nothing.

People selling you dice control lessons say it is possible at throws the length of a craps table.
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odiousgambit
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December 1st, 2022 at 7:39:54 AM permalink
Quote: IWannaBeAP

Quote: unJon

Under the OP conditions, yes it is possible to keep the dice on axis enough to be +EV. I can do with an underhand roll, and it and it didn’t take much practice.
link to original post



Can you (or anyone else who believes they can roll on axis) elaborate further on rolling on axis?

I don't assert I can, I just try to do it. Some players think you should just take statistics on the numbers that tend to be rolled with a certain set and your particular throw. IMO many such have little concept of how many throws it would take to avoid seeing false trends.

Quote:

Given a big enough sample size (1k+ rolls),

sorry, not even remotely close to enough rolls to get significance to any trend. Yes, this means it's hard to know. Plus, you can't see what happened! You'd need to use slow motion cameras.

Quote:

how many rolls would land without tilting (stay on axis)? Assume you can do short throws with no back walls.
link to original post

If you could get just a few rolls to stay on axis, maybe 20 out of 1,000, it could have significance. I base this statement on a chart Wizard made, see link, where he shows that if you use full odds on a 3x4x5x table, the very first improvement noted, going from 6.000 rolls to sevens ratio to 6.040 results in no less than 0.018% player advantage. For practical interpretation of this, I think it implies you can wipe out the house edge 'if you can do it at all', i.e. influence dice at all, since 6.040 is just a tiny deviation from random.

the chart is about a third of the way down
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/4/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DJTeddyBear
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Thanks for this post from:
IWannaBeAP
December 1st, 2022 at 9:03:07 AM permalink
Quote: IWannaBeAP

… I'll also add that I'm ok with just one of the dice staying on axis. I don't need both dice to stay on axis to be +EV.
link to original post

Hmmm…
That’s an interesting wrinkle.

I’m gonna work on charts and math and put it in the thread I started.
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Talldude90
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December 2nd, 2022 at 1:44:09 AM permalink
would adding angular velocity (inducing spin on the desirable axis) help or is that something that is illegal? Also I have notice while playing Risk that throwing dice in any way that can be flat can (even with some rolling and minimal bouncing) return the exact face up numbers that were thrown. I saw this done unintentionally (3 throws of 3 dice hitting exact same numbers when not actually trying to cheat) last game of Risk I played.
SOOPOO
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December 2nd, 2022 at 4:33:36 AM permalink
Quote: IWannaBeAP

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I get the feeling that the original poster doesn't understand dice setting / dice control. Frankly, I get that feeling about a lot of people, both online and at the craps table. Specifically, I think the OP's comment about bouncing makes me think he thinks the goal is to have the result be exactly whatever is on top when the dice are set.

As such, I wrote a 1,000 word article about it, here:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/37761-dice-control-dice-setting-defined/#post873036
link to original post



I will give this a read. You are correct that I know nothing about dice control. All I knew prior to asking these questions, was that "dice control is mostly a scam and if someone could do it they would have proven it to Wiz or some other math authority".

Of course that's under standard conditions. Full length throws that hit back wall.

The conclusion may be different, if the setup is different.
link to original post



If I could do it the LAST thing I’d be doing it is proving it to someone. I’d be making $$$ trying my damndest to keep a low profile.

We are almost in agreement though. You say ‘dice control is mostly a scam’. I say ‘dice control is totally a scam’.

“There is no human on the planet who can control/influence the dice (using generally accepted casino rules) in a manner to reliably overcome the house edge in craps”.
ChumpChange
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December 2nd, 2022 at 4:42:50 AM permalink
Can you dice control for only one turn at a time at a full table, or for every turn for 3 hours straight at an empty table?
I can only set the dice. What the results are is yet to be determined.

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