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Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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April 1st, 2021 at 4:14:32 AM permalink
Quote: HiOpt2Poor

I had an excellent win dice setting a couple weeks back.

100% true story. I won 3K not sure it had anything to do with the dice setting. But the nice person next to me called his host to the table and got me a comped room and the place was sold out. Maybe I'll keep practicing my Dice Set. lol



Pascal's Wager, so why the hell not if you're going to play Craps anyway?

If you're right, then dice setting helps you.

If you're wrong, then dice setting does not hurt you.

The only way it could hurt you is if you were right, but were doing it wrong. Even then, dice setting would still be changing the probabilities a bit and would, "Work," in that sense.

Do I believe in dice setting? Nope. Do I set the dice on the rare occasion that I play Craps? You bet!
Vultures can't be choosers.
Chapz
Chapz
Joined: Feb 26, 2020
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April 1st, 2021 at 7:42:39 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Pascal's Wager, so why the hell not if you're going to play Craps anyway?



If you're wrong, then dice setting does not hurt you.



Pascal's wager states if you are wrong, you lose nothing. Not true in casino games. If you are wrong, dice setting or not, you still LOSE!
"To beat a random game you have to be good at being random."
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
April 1st, 2021 at 7:43:56 AM permalink
Quote: Chapz

Pascal's wager states if you are wrong, you lose nothing. Not true in casino games. If you are wrong, dice setting or not, you still LOSE!



Itís restive to baseline. Assume you are playing craps either way. So you lose the same whether or not you dice set. So you lose nothing (relative to baseline) by setting the dice.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Chapz
Chapz
Joined: Feb 26, 2020
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Mission146
April 1st, 2021 at 7:45:31 AM permalink
What if the dice setting caused the the roll to lose vs a random throw?
"To beat a random game you have to be good at being random."
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
April 1st, 2021 at 7:47:06 AM permalink
Quote: Chapz

What if the dice setting cause the the roll to lose vs a random throw?



Youíve hit on the Schmod counter argument to Pascalís Wager. Brilliant!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Chapz
Chapz
Joined: Feb 26, 2020
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Mission146
April 1st, 2021 at 7:48:37 AM permalink
My point is, you can't apply Pascal's wager to casino games.
"To beat a random game you have to be good at being random."
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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April 1st, 2021 at 7:51:04 AM permalink
Quote: Chapz

My point is, you can't apply Pascal's wager to casino games.



Your posts have not persuasively made that point. Your prior post in fact made it even more clearly related to Pascalís wage.

Paraphrased:

Pascal:
There may or may not be a God. I may or may not believe in Him. The only way I lose is if there is a God and I do not believe in Him.

Schmod counter:
There may or may not be a Schmod. I may or may not believe in Him. The only way I lose is if there is a Schmod and I do believe in Him.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Chapz
Chapz
Joined: Feb 26, 2020
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April 1st, 2021 at 8:10:44 AM permalink
"If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing."
http://www.classicallibrary.org/pascal/pensees/pensees03.htm

You are assuming that if you set the dice and lost, you would have lost also if you threw the dice randomly. That is the flaw.

There is no such thing as 'nothing to lose' in casino games.
"To beat a random game you have to be good at being random."
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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April 1st, 2021 at 8:40:17 AM permalink
Quote: Chapz

"If you gain, you gain all; if you lose, you lose nothing."
http://www.classicallibrary.org/pascal/pensees/pensees03.htm

You are assuming that if you set the dice and lost, you would have lost also if you threw the dice randomly. That is the flaw.

There is no such thing as 'nothing to lose' in casino games.



Nor in life. How many +EV (for whatever your definition of EV) have been passed up due to belief in God. Mere belief with no difference in life lived is not the point.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 125
  • Posts: 13201
April 2nd, 2021 at 4:03:25 AM permalink
Quote: Chapz

Pascal's wager states if you are wrong, you lose nothing. Not true in casino games. If you are wrong, dice setting or not, you still LOSE!



I agree, hence my caveat, "If you're going to play Craps anyway."
Vultures can't be choosers.

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