Gabes22
Joined: Jul 19, 2011
• Posts: 1427
December 3rd, 2020 at 4:57:08 AM permalink
In craps, not only do you have to minimize 7s but you have to prove you are able to make more points. If you can get the 7 up from 1 in 6 rolls to 1 in 6.25 rolls you have to equally prove you can hit the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 at higher rates once that particular point is established
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
• Posts: 1965
December 3rd, 2020 at 9:24:05 AM permalink
If I set for the point of 5 and keep throwing 9's, I should put a progressive bet down on the 9.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8429
December 3rd, 2020 at 10:37:47 AM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

In craps, not only do you have to minimize 7s but you have to prove you are able to make more points. If you can get the 7 up from 1 in 6 rolls to 1 in 6.25 rolls you have to equally prove you can hit the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 at higher rates once that particular point is established

If you are talking about my number crunching, it is true that I am showing less 7-outs without showing increase in hitting numbers to be resolved. This is what I meant when I said it is a little wonky, and the house edge would actually be reduced more than I show.

So I don't want to continue with even higher rolls to sevens factors until I can fix that. The conundrum is once you stipulate rolling less 7-outs, you do have to figure it will mean a better rate for resolving in favor of the rightside bettors. If the shooter doesn't roll a 7-out, something else will be rolled, and a proportion of the time it will be a meaningless number and a proportion of the time it will 'hit' the number. I think this is a matter of just figuring out the proportions and I am working on that.

I don't want to switch to a special set that targets the number to resolve, though, but want to know the answer sticking to just trying to roll less 7-outs.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
• Posts: 2675
December 3rd, 2020 at 1:08:16 PM permalink
Are we using BoneTracker to resolve all these issues? Excel program.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8429
December 3rd, 2020 at 3:14:29 PM permalink
I don't have the program and am not used to Excel

Anybody out there who can use this feel free
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Zcore13

Joined: Nov 30, 2009
• Posts: 3617
Thanks for this post from:
December 4th, 2020 at 3:58:12 AM permalink
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8429
December 4th, 2020 at 4:41:24 AM permalink
As a matter of fact, I don't have a job.

And as a matter of fact, in this thread I have plenty of disclaimer about the prospects for dice setting, as much as the Wizard, I'd say, who did in fact put on his site a ton of information about it, along with that disclaimer. As for this thread, even the title is a disclaimer of sorts.

As for casino personnel, they should just admit they're paranoid about dice setting. I've seen them with their hair on fire about some dice setters who, as I watched them with 'their stuff', was able to conclude there was no possibility whatsoever they were getting anything but random results. You can only conclude these hair-enflamed paranoids might try to spend some time educating themselves about it instead of making themselves look like morons.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Posts: 8429
December 12th, 2020 at 10:25:53 AM permalink
I was looking at the Wall Street Journal and saw an image that might explain why I sometimes don't do so good at craps. I might go into this more at my blog [but maybe not today]

Was the person who made the image a craps player having a laugh?

image from today's article "the-dicey-economics-of-investing-in-oil-during-covid-19"

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
• Posts: 7062
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December 12th, 2020 at 12:13:02 PM permalink
Yep, a very interesting die. With it having two faces with just a single pip each (and neither of them opposite the 6 face that we can see), I wonder how many and which of the other usual face values are missing. Might make for some advantageous place bet opportunities.
onebok
Joined: Mar 31, 2016
• Posts: 43
December 15th, 2020 at 2:45:17 PM permalink
While there are "gurus" that swear by the dice being able to be thrown on-axis, the likelihood of getting the dice to perform
on-axis from start to finish of a Dice-Influenced or DI toss is very unlikely.
Assuming you have enough skill to toss the dice so that they hit the table surface, roll to the pyramid wall and react off of it and
come to rest of their own lost energy, rather than, along the way, hitting the side wall, chips, puck, the other die, etc., the dice are
still likely to be tumbled and rotated at the contact with the table top or contact with the pyramid rubber, and usually both.
High speed video shreds the idea of distinguishing on-axis vs. correlation for modes of executing a controlled toss.
Any DI-wannabee who can reduce the occurrence of sevens by 3 standard deviations will be more than happy to accept any
percentage of off-axis or on-axis tosses that simply aren't sevens.

IMO, Wizard data for SRR of 6.04 vs. 6.08, etc. is strictly statistics. From a practicable point of view, any DI with 6.08 or even 6.5
could spend their lifetime never knowing whether they were having a good Variance win or skill-based win. This goes toward your
desire to measure +EV while not knowing the bucket of good or bad numbers those non-sevens should be placed.

My guess as to how you might proceed in your "wonky" quest:
Place results of 2,3,4,10,11,12 in the garbage bucket(non-winner, non-wagered) and 5,6,8,9 in the winner bucket for all
post-comeout tosses...it is likely that most DI's will limit themselves to betting inside numbers, especially with \$25 and \$50
minimum bets becoming the norm around larger cities in these Covid times.
I believe that one can only hope to reduce sevens without an ability to target inside vs garbage buckets unless hugely familiar
with the table being used.
I would be very interested in what you might come up with. Without your results, I am leaning more towards the ballpark of
3 or 4 standard deviations before you can really have a +EV that is practicable and even measurable without requiring large
and troublesome sample size.
I do want to be wrong about that ballpark.