After 650 controlled rolls, here is my analysis

First off, I love Craps and everything the gambling wizard has done for us. I frequent his site on the daily, and attribute much of my knowledge to his site. I've been lurking on this forum for quite some time but have never

So, I have here some results from my DI experiments. I can't figure out how to upload a screenshot of my spreadsheet so I will just type them out. First off, let me describe the table I was using. I purchased one of these mini crap table sections ala amazon here. /Practice-Craps-Table/dp/B00NZ65S5S/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1464396443&sr=8-4&keywords=craps+table $130 is kind of expensive for what is essentially rubber and felt glued to some wood, but it is the best I could do. The table is very hard, which is good. You want the dice to deposit as much energy as they can on that initial bounce before they touch the back wall.

So, let's talk about the Come Out rolls. 279 total rolls have been executed, using a seven-set. Here are the stats:
SEVEN 51
ELEVEN 19
TWO 5
THREE 18
TWELVE 9
FOUR 20
FIVE 24
SIX 40
EIGHT 39
NINE 33
TEN 21

SRR: 5.470 (The math states 6.00 is the probability)
Percent of Sevens rolled: 18.279% (The math states 16.666% is the probability)

Not bad. But not enough rolls have been executed yet in my opinion


Here are the rolls once a point was established. For this, I was varying between a hardway set with the Two's on top and the Four's facing you, and another hardway set with the One's on top and the Five's facing you. I'll explain this later. 647 rolls have been executed

TWO 18
THREE 40
FOUR 57
FIVE 70
SIX 80
EIGHT 91
NINE 66
TEN 62
ELEVEN 41
TWELVE 18
SEVEN 104

Percent Sevens Rolled (The math states 16.666% is the probability)
16.074%

SRR (The math states 6.00 is the probability)
6.2211538462

Based on this article, one only needs an SRR of 6.16 to overcome the house edge on the Place 6/8 bet. /games/craps/appendix/4/

Now let me talk about the rolling process and my results in the Casino

The table only is essentially a chunk of a craps table, and the results here have the possibility of being null and void because of bouncing off of the side walls or off of the table. The rolling process is actually quite simple; I would set up my rig to what feels right for a craps table, and measure eight to nine feet back and shoot from there. I put a chair there sideways with the seat portion facing what would be the inside of the Craps tub to simulate leaning over the rail while I shoot. The shooting technique is the common accepted way to do it; gentle backspin, hitting 6 to 9 inches from the wall hitting softly and attempting to stay on axis. I have gathered these results as un-biased as possible. THere are times where a die would go flying off the practice rig and land on the floor. I honor it as a good roll because should that happen in the casino, it likewise will be a good roll unless it was off the table.

As far as the Casino goes, you need to find a table that is very hard and not cushy. Likewise, bigger, lighter dice are better than smaller, denser dice. The reason for this is that you want the dice to deposit as most energy as possible on the initial bounce and attempt to have the dice just "kiss" the back wall. A hard table translates to more energy transferred when the dice hit. Lighter dice mean less power is needed to toss them down the table. I haven't done too much surveying of table's in Las Vegas, but I have found that Joker's Wild is a decently hard table with favorable dice.

That brings me to my time in the Casino: Inconclusive. I haven't held the dice long enough to make any even preliminary judgements. I frequent low-minimum Craps tables, which are by definition attractive because of there frugality. Although, the results do look optimistic. I placed a huge Don't Come bet and set the dice with the one's on top and the two's facing me, to give the best chance to roll Craps and win. I threw the dice perfectly. Perfect axis, they flew through the air perfectly, hit the table and just "kissed" the back wall. ACES! I went a little over the top with my cheering, but still awesome none the less. Just last week the same occurrence happened. This time, I rolled ace's twice in a row, winning the DC on the spot both times. From a subjective point of view, I can "feel" myself getting into the zone. I made four points that same day before finally sevening out. The dilemma remains; was it do to favorable variance, or to an actual advantage?

How many of the Yo's were in a row?

Thank you for bringing some data to this topic, which is seldom done.

On the come out rolls you had 51 sevens out of 279 rolls. The expected number of sevens is 46.5. A standard deviation is 6.22 sevens. So, you're 0.72 standard deviations ahead of expectations. The probability of results that good or better, using the Gaussian approximation, is 76.5%.

On the other rolls you had 104 sevens out of 647 rolls. The expected sevens is 107.83. A standard deviation is 9.48 sevens. So, you're 0.40 standard deviations ahead of expectations. The probability of results that good or better, using the Gaussian approximation, is 65.7%.

Maybe somebody else will come along and do a perfect binomial analysis. However, I think this is sufficient to show that while you're beating the averages, it could easily be just random variation.

Quote: Wizard

Thank you for bringing some data to this topic, which is seldom done.

On the come out rolls you had 51 sevens out of 279 rolls. The expected number of sevens is 46.5. A standard deviation is 6.22 sevens. So, you're 0.72 standard deviations ahead of expectations. The probability of results that good or better, using the Gaussian approximation, is 76.5%.

On the other rolls you had 104 sevens out of 647 rolls. The expected sevens is 107.83. A standard deviation is 9.48 sevens. So, you're 0.40 standard deviations ahead of expectations. The probability of results that good or better, using the Gaussian approximation, is 65.7%.

Maybe somebody else will come along and do a perfect binomial analysis. However, I think this is sufficient to show that while you're beating the averages, it could easily be just random variation.

And generally speaking this is what is difficult for dice influencers to pull off, a big enough sample to rule out "good luck" with a high-level of certainty. Takes quite a bit of time to roll the dice to create large samples.

They're certainly interesting numbers - and I agree with the SQRT(npq) method (and results) of seeing how many Standard Deviations (SDs) your results are from the average; however with so few rolls, the evidence isn't conclusive.

Looking at 104 sevens in 647 rolls, this is less than 1/2 SD better than expected and can be attributed to luck. However if you were able to keep this up by rolling 10400 sevens in 64700 rolls then that would be significant (4.04 SDs). This is why there need to be a lot of consistent rolls before you can mathematically suggest a bias.

Personally I'd suggest if you can show 3SDs for both throwing more sevens when wanting them and less when not, then you're onto something. The number of rolls necessary will depend on how much bias there is before the difference becomes significant.

It would be nice to see some VIDEO. In this day and age any cell phone and youtube will do.

Who knows, you might be the next person to roll 18 yo's in a row and we wouldn't want to miss that.

I'm not sure why you are giving incomplete links; perhaps new member restrictions. Anyway, I think this is what you bought:


http://www.amazon.com/Practice-Craps-Table/dp/B00NZ65S5S?ie=UTF8&keywords=craps%20table&qid=1464427365&ref_=sr_1_4&sr=8-4

the other link evidently,
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/4/

It's hard to have enough trials in these things. Considering that so far variance explains what you've done, 10,000 or in that magnitude will probably not give reasonable certainty, you may have to do 100,000 or in that area, maybe more.

Update: Yes, odiousgambit, that is indeed the table I got.

This goes without saying, but don't drink when you try to throw dice. It can be tempting to grab a drink at the table while you wait for the dice to make it back to you. My and my dad broke out the Craps rig and had some brews last night to see what we could accomplish. Horrible! Even after a single beer, I could feel my motor skills becoming clouded and found it quite difficult to shoot according to protocol. I didn't record the results because we knew that we were impaired and likewise would not repeat such a thing at a casino if we were serious about DI.

I will continue the experiment, and keep you updated on the results. Once 2,000 rolls have been executed, I think we will have a better sample. 10,000 rolls sounds better, but shooting the dice that many times will take quite an amount of time.

Quote: Dyvan13

Here are the rolls once a point was established.
647 rolls have been executed

TWO 18
THREE 40
FOUR 57
FIVE 70
SIX 80
EIGHT 91
NINE 66
TEN 62
ELEVEN 41
TWELVE 18
SEVEN 104

Percent Sevens Rolled (The math states 16.666% is the probability)
16.074%

SRR (The math states 6.00 is the probability)
6.2211538462

Based on this article, one only needs an SRR of 6.16 to overcome the house edge on the Place 6/8 bet. /games/craps/appendix/4/

so
104
7 outs

SIX 80
EIGHT 91
that = 171 wins

you have the edge you say
<<< >>>
place the 6 and 8 for $6 each

you still have the edge
according to that article (super-large flaw I see in that article)

ok
now,
lose $12
104 times for a loss = -$1248

you won $7 each time
$7 times 171 = 1197 in winnings

looks like your edge is a loser
-$51
or is it a winner for the house??

you have to know your dice distribution probabilities
to know your edge on craps bets

imo,
either use WinCraps or Bonetracker (Excel)
not Smart Craps as that (yep)
program keeps your distribution a secret from you
(and i suggest you keep your money and not buy that program unless it is free for your to have and try.)

it wants you to trust it
sweet

back to your drawing board
i due say

have fun
some like rolling the dice
Sally

Quote: odiousgambit

<snip>10,000 or in that magnitude will probably not give reasonable certainty, you may have to do 100,000 or in that area, maybe more.

so would you
then
suggest OP turn to the software Smart Craps, recommended by Frank Scoblete,

that only requires about 500 rolls to know exactly
your edge and what bets to make
(sounds WONDERFUL!)

(always seems to be pass and come with odds)

or what?
you no show no maths?
it is easy stuffs using a calculator, IMO

no have fun?
then
continue on

Sally

First of all, good work Dyvan, and welcome to the forum.

Let us assume for a second you keep working on this, get to 10000 rolls, and your data shows a significant bias towards the desired results. At this point, your credibility is gonna be called into question in no uncertain terms.

So you either:

- don't give a shit and make a lot of money off actual dice influence - end of story.

- you intend to publish your results. In that case you will need video of all your trials sessions. It can easily be done, even a smartphone can record up to hundred hours of hires video.

I would prefer the second option. Although I am convinced that DI is absurd, I would love to be shown evidence to the contrary.

Quote: Canyonero

First of all, good work Dyvan, and welcome to the forum.

Let us assume for a second you keep working on this, get to 10000 rolls, and your data shows a significant bias towards the desired results. At this point, your credibility is gonna be called into question in no uncertain terms.

So you either:

- don't give a shit and make a lot of money off actual dice influence - end of story.

- you intend to publish your results. In that case you will need video of all your trials sessions. It can easily be done, even a smartphone can record up to hundred hours of hires video.

I would prefer the second option. Although I am convinced that DI is absurd, I would love to be shown evidence to the contrary.

+11

Quote: AxelWolf

+11

Seconded.
Anyone recording the outcomes of 10,000 dice rolls who doesn't get it on video is a prize [Insert Derogatory Expletive]

UPDATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm no longer welcome at Joker's Wild Casino. I bought a mini practice Craps table and practiced not rolling the Sevens (almost every bet loses on the Seven). I got my technique down AMAZINGLY and slayed it at the casino.

For those who know the game, I made the following point numbers 5,6,8,10, and 10 again before a Seven. The probability of executing such a feat is a tiny 1.1%. The table was ECSTATIC! It was like I was a Celebrity. The SIX was a hard way winner and so was one of the TENS. The pit boss came over and inspected the dice mid roll. Once I finally rolled a seven and lost, the table broke out in a round of applause for me.

We are allowed to pull up chairs to the Craps table to sit, as many patrons do. The pit boss got VISCERAL with me when I tried to do so. She barked out at me "WHY DO YOU NEED A CHAIR? SO YOU CAN ONLY MAKE $2 BETS!? YOU CAN STAND!!!!". She was almost foaming at the mouth. This was out of nowhere!!! There were at LEAST two or three other old foggies sitting at the table making minimum bets, so it was obviously BS. Smart pit boss. I was playing the table minimum when other shooters would roll. When I got the dice, I would ramp up my bets to $40+. I'm not betting on random rollers that bash the dice around the table and make a 7 come up. I bet the Pit Boss was even more angry for comping me a pack of cigarettes earlier
.
It was pretty intimidating. Two or three times, I saw a congregation of pit bosses discussing something off in the distance while pointing at me, looking quite disheveled. I quickly got my chips, cashed out and left. Technically, I didn't get barred from the establishment, but returning would be a very dumb decision. I wouldn't put it past a crappy little casino like Joker's Wild to vandalize my vehicle in the parking lot, or even take me to the back room and beat the daylight out of me. Although I know that it is unlikely that new casino nowadays would do that, I'm honest enough to admit that Casino heat scares me.

The house must have lost thousands of dollars during my roll. I would have easily made $400+, but I was foolishly hedging my bets on the DC and lost ALL OF my DC bets, so I only walked away with a small chunk of change. I guess you could say I hedge on the DC because even I'm not 100% convinced that DI is possible. I was playing passline with odds, placing 6 and 8, and hedging with a huge DC bet.


After my roll, a guy pulled me aside and gave me a business card. He says he does dice control classes.
All in all, it was a learning experience. It sucks that I can't play there anymore. Joker's Wild table was in my opinion AWESOME for DI. It is a very hard table, no softness to it. The dice just die when thrown properly, and it isn't hard to make them simply "kiss" the back wall. I'll have to find another Casino with another like-minded table. I could understand the pit boss getting angry at me for playing the table minimum on a busy saturday, but there was nobody waiting to join the table. I would have offered my spot in a heartbeat. Funny thing is too, I was VERY generous with tipping the dealers. I was making a $1 dealer line bet almost every comeout, which doesn't sound like much, but the other patrons were barely tipping ANYTHING. The dealers love me

Quote: Dyvan13

I'm no longer welcome at Joker's Wild Casino...Technically, I didn't get barred from the establishment, but returning would be a very dumb decision.

I wouldn't interpret what happened as being 86'd. I would interpret it that they are a "sweat the money" joint and were just being poor losers. I'd have no compunction about returning, especially on another shift.

Quote: Wizard

I wouldn't interpret what happened as being 86'd. I would interpret it that they are a "sweat the money" joint and were just being poor losers. I'd have no compunction about returning, especially on another shift.

You think so Mr. Wizard? Maybe I will give it some time to cool off and then return. This is my first time dealing with Casino heat and they did their job properly; they scared me off. I need to educate myself on avoiding and minimizing heat.

I'm absolutely itching to see another DI experiment done. If things keep working out in my favor as far as DI goes, I'm very willing to gain access to a full scale craps table and perform.

Also, Wizard! You are a celebrity to me. Before I got into DI, I was and still am an AVID video poker player, my favorite game being good ol' Full Pay Deuces Wild. I visit your site religiously, and I can attribute 90% of my gambling knowledge to your website alone. Your appendix on Deuces Wild penalty cards is invaluable.

Let's follow the Wizard's lead and not pounce on this guy.

Dyvan, nice session! but it would take a lot more to convince most of us that you still aren't just enjoying good luck. You shouldn't be convinced either. All craps players have seen multiple similar shooters, more often *not* setting the dice than setting the dice.

In spite of some elements that indicate you are telling the truth, like admitting you made almost nothing, you are also going to be subject to skepticism if you continue to claim it seems to be working. Why not line up some witnesses?

Quote: odiousgambit

Let's follow the Wizard's lead and not pounce on this guy.

Dyvan, nice session! but it would take a lot more to convince most of us that you still aren't just enjoying good luck. You shouldn't be convinced either. All craps players have seen multiple similar shooters, more often *not* setting the dice than setting the dice.

In spite of some elements that indicate you are telling the truth, like admitting you made almost nothing, you are also going to be subject to skepticism if you continue to claim it seems to be working. Why not line up some witnesses?

I'm not opposed to setting up some witnesses in due time. It's still too early in my supposed "DI Career" for me to have the confidence to meet up with somebody official and document these events. While I've had success in the short term, I'm still not 100% sold on it myself. The thing is.... you have to be playing on a good table with good dice. I've only visited Fiesta Henderson and Joker's Wild for Craps. The table at Fiesta Henderson is kind of mediocre. The dice aren't the typical big reds used by other casinos, but a smaller, more dense pair of blue dice. The table is also has a significant amount of bounce to it.

So starting today, I will commence a search around Las Vegas and Henderson for good Craps tables. I'm going to check out the tables at Green Valley Ranch next. Hopefully today I can do it after work. And the skepticism is fine. I expect it.

As someone who has been-there-done-that, I can assure you that you are experiencing the false high
of thinking you have DI and feeling like a champ due to the drunken applause of a bunch of low-roller
locals at a low-end casino who joined in your excitement at winning. Joker's Wild is not a
place for someone to have a purely accidental monster roll and make the HOUSE sweat the money. To
do so while being a typical DI with a practiced-shot prior to each toss must really piss them off.
A few thousand dollars might be all that they make in a typical shift or even a day's table take.

While I haven't been there in several years, lot's of LAS locals who DI go to these places because
their minimum is so cheap that they can afford to play more often and not lose nearly as much as
at 5 and $10 tables. That's probably why there was someone from a "dice school" ready to recruit
you for a class in order to take you to the "next level".

If you think you're onto something big with your toss be advised that it only can be attributed
to lucky variance and you should not let it get to your head.
Every DI-wannabee has at least a half dozen similar early experiences that excite a false hope
in their talent for DI but don't result from an actual ability to DI.

Quote: onebok

Joker's Wild is not a
place for someone to have a purely accidental monster roll and make the HOUSE sweat the money. To
do so while being a typical DI with a practiced-shot prior to each toss must really piss them off.

I don't understand what you mean here. You're saying that I got lucky, correct? And the fact that I got lucky while doing the whole dice setting controlled-throw routine was basically spitting in their face? I could sympathize with that argument. Especially a young guy in his 20's that just started going to that place (I had been only going there for about a week or two). They are all regulars there, all very old and elderly people. I'm the youngest one there by at least 20 years when I go.

Your argument about the "DI Instructor" to bring me to the next level sounds spot on. I watched him roll and it looked like the typical run of the mill DI. He sevened out quite quickly from what I remember. Remember, I'm still not 100% on this DI stuff myself. THat's why I hedged on the DC during my monster roll and ended up only winning change.



That brings me to an Update on my Casino playing:

I found another local casino with a slow craps table. The table wasn't great; the dice had a good amount of bounce to it. But the good news: the table was DEAD! Today the pit crew didn't even bother opening up the table. It stinks that the table conditions aren't that great, but being the only person at the table is awesome. I played the Don't Pass the whole time, and would hardway set the dice with the Ace's on top and the two's facing me. I started off cold, but once I tossed the dice for a few hands, I started winning a lot. I don't have exact figures, but I definitely won on the Come out roll more than I lost on it, in fact, I'd say I had almost a 2-1 ratio of winning to losing, which is surprising. I also got fours and tens as point numbers almost as often as six's and eight's. Subjectively, that is what it felt like anyway. The most surprising statistic was rolling Acey-Deuce FOUR times in a row on the come out roll!! The dealer was appalled, as was I.

I started off cold, dipped down to -$25 ish, then won it all back plus $35, lost $10 of it back and then called it a night. It was a $3 table, and I was only occasionally laying the odds. Finally, I made $10 ish dollars worth of bets for the dealers throughout my session, which puts me at only +$15 for three hours of play. There is a specific Seven Set for each point number that theoretically makes it less likely to come up should a seven not roll. I was using each of these specific Seven sets.

If you are indeed successfully practicing DI, you'll make far more money doing it than talking about it, selling lessons, or trying to convince others that it's possible. Further, the more that people believe it's impossible, the better off you are. If it turns out that what you are seeing is just normal variance, and you wind up losing, then having threads about it on here will probably make you feel foolish.

Either way, talking about it publicly is probably not beneficial for you.

Quote: cwazy

If you are indeed successfully practicing DI, you'll make far more money doing it than talking about it, selling lessons, or trying to convince others that it's possible. Further, the more that people believe it's impossible, the better off you are. If it turns out that what you are seeing is just normal variance, and you wind up losing, then having threads about it on here will probably make you feel foolish.

Either way, talking about it publicly is probably not beneficial for you.

Ok. You got it. -zip-.

Quote: cwazy

Either way, talking about it publicly is probably not beneficial for you.

I agree, but after 4 ace-deuce's in a row, please let us know when you roll 18 yo's in a row. We have an eye witness that it happened at Caesars Palace, some time back!

Update: I've been doing well.

I have found a casino where I have done nothing but win. Last night I was hot as an iron. To top things off, the last hand of the night I parlayed a winning any craps bet and rolled a 12, winning a parlayed bet. Some other casinos I do nothing but lose at. This casino I have done nothing but win at. The dealers were astounded after I threw point after point, come after come.

I've come to a conclusion regarding dice control;

There will never be a definitive answer to it. For people to believe it, there must be hard evidence of tens of thousands of rolls with a favorable SRR. The labor into it is astounding, and coupled with that there is shooter fatigue. At about 100 rolls of grinding and collecting data, I can feel the fatigue start to set in.

And even if the data was there, it would immediately be called into question by skeptics who would question the scientific integrity of the results.

It's not something with a definitive, proven mathematics. The table has to be right, the dice need to be right.

But I believe that I can influence the dice, and I am confident to put my hard-earned money at risk. And at the end of the day, that is all that matters.

Quote: Dyvan13

This casino I have done nothing but win at. The dealers were astounded after I threw point after point, come after come. . . . It's not something with a definitive, proven mathematics. The table has to be right, the dice need to be right.

This sounds in other words like a casino that is adjusting the table and the dice to favor the player. See what happens when they start monkeying with the basics of the game.

Quote: Dyvan13

And even if the data was there, it would immediately be called into question by skeptics who would question the scientific integrity of the results.

Well, there would be certain types of data that would convince a lot quicker. If you could roll, say, 'no seven' 95% of the time over just 10,000 rolls, I bet that would get great interest, something close to a concession that you have a skill. I for one would be willing to back you.

But a slight edge takes an enormous amount of data to confirm. And indisputable data is hard to get too.

Even if you are controlling the dice, one of these months you are going to go on some crazy losing streak. As the Hustler said "The balls roll funny for all of us". So when that happens I want to see how stable your emotions are when you keep going to the dice table and throwing perfect but the dice don't do what you want them to do. It isn't hard to believe in something when your on a winning streak, that is for sure, but let's see how you react when you get on a few weeks or months of LOSE LOSE LOSE which brings the PAIN PAIN PAIN... quoted in the movie The Cooler which should be right up your alley :) !

Dyvan13: From the tone of your last post here my comments will likely fall on deaf ears
but in the interest of bringing you down to earth just a tiny bit:

1. The way you record your tosses must exclude all those that hit the wooden side
walls as well as fly off the table or hit other dice from a prior toss which you
didn't remove from the practice table (one or both dice in these scenarios).
The reasoning is quite simple: you're trying to record a "skilled" shot, not an
accidental result due to hitting the side wall or floor or another dice in the path
of movement. Yes, I know that in a real casino setting it counts when you hit the
chips, etc. Nevertheless, a bona fide "skilled shot" or a toss worth measuring
is one that is unimpeded in its entire flight from start to final position and is
ONLY due to YOUR influence, such as it may be.

Try doing this for a week and see what percentage of tosses you can record
**properly**. Due to the small size of your practice table, I'd guess less than 20%.
If you had a practice table approximating the size of a regulation table you would be much
better off since a highly skilled toss might still roll a bit outside of your
24"wide x 20"deep confines. Your particular practice rig is just another major challenge
you will have to deal with.

2. You seem to feel greatly empowered by the reactions of others to your shooting when
you are on a lucky roll.

Quote:

The dealers were astounded after I threw point after point, come after come.

You may be letting the fact that

Quote:

Some other casinos I do nothing but lose at

pale towards invisible in comparison to the more memorable hot roll events.
This is common and has been the cause of many a DI-wannabee investing countless
hours and losing many thousands of dollars in the pursuit.

3. Keep track of your W/L at every session in a little black book. That means
record your starting and ending chips ONLY for your own shooting. All other W/L
due to others is only going to let you live in denial of your live-casino abilities
or lack thereof. When you stop recording your W/L in a disciplined way that is a
sign that things are not going well.

4. From your posts, you appear to be what can only be described as a newbie to DI.
It took Dicesitter thousands of tosses and a daily grind to attain
the ability to control a shot to the considerable level he has. Even after all of
his work, he won't confidently go into a hostile, skeptical, mathwiz-stocked craps
contest and wager a lot of money and risk an embarrassing loss. His shooting is
not quite as deterministic as the mathwiz types on this forum require. Perhaps he
really can compensate for a losing session by tweaking his dice set? This certainly
makes absolutely no sense if you have an unskilled shot, but if you have a highly
consistent shot like his, maybe it works more than not? No idea. Not something that
lends itself to measuring or proving to a math guy.

So, being a newbie, please listen to yourself:

Quote:

At about 100 rolls of grinding and collecting data, I can feel the fatigue start to set in.

You have barely started and just 100 tosses causes you fatigue. Just wait until you exclude
the tosses that aren't **proper** and see how many attempts are needed to get to 100.

Quote:

But I believe that I can influence the dice, and I am confident to put my hard-earned
money at risk. And at the end of the day, that is all that matters.

That smacks of a belief system taking hold of you. Your lucky streak and over-confidence
are clouding your judgement.

Update on my stats:

COME OUT ROLL (Seven Set)

SEVEN 95
ELEVEN 42
TWO 14
THREE 33
TWELVE 18
FOUR 40
FIVE 53
SIX 80
EIGHT 76
NINE 48
TEN 46

% 7's Seven Set
0.1743119266

Ratio Sevens
5.7368421053

Total Come out Rolls 545


#'s Hit after
Come out roll (Hardway set)
TWO 29
THREE 79
FOUR 122
FIVE 158
SIX 186
EIGHT 209
NINE 141
TEN 111
ELEVEN 81
TWELVE 39
SEVEN 213

% 7's Hardway Set
0.1557017544

Ratio Sevens
6.4225352113

Total Pt Rolls 1368

Total Rolls 1913

Come out Wins 54
Crap outs 65
Points Made 122
Seven Outs 213


I also have begun recording the percentage of on-axis rolls starting my last few sessions.

Comeout Point
On axis rolls: 115 274
Off Axis rolls 132 324

Total counted 247 598


Total of both 845
Total on axis percent 0.4603550296



As far as actual casino play goes: I've been steadily losing. A bunch of medium sized losses and the occasional big win. I'm playing Pass+come with odds, but I might switch to placing the 6 and 8. Many times, I'll have a point and a come bet on the outside numbers and I'll roll 6's and 8's and horn numbers galore before 7-outing. The variance has been brutal. Assuming an advantage is present, it is better to play the do side with odds, but placing the 6/8 could add more stability to the play, although giving up some of the theoretical edge

This new local casino I've been playing at now knows me. I've done nothing but win there until recently. Luck has now taken a downswing. The crew is watching me now. I had a pit boss or two present at my table the whole time, keeping a subtle eye on me. They are getting quite upset with short rolls where only one die hits the backwall. The dealer told me to hit the back wall harder.

Likewise, that is how these stats have formed. Some days, I'm seven outing on my practice rig every 3-4 rolls. Other days, my SRR for the session is close to 10. Collecting this data has been a rollercoaster of extremes.

Warren Buffet once said "You have big wins and big losses, small wins and small losses; get rid of the big losses and you are good."

You have potential, but should try to minimize losses and win more frequently, as well as big wins. What I do is $44 inside and once a number hits, I drop it to $16/17/22 inside minus the point and I'm almost even with only 1 hit. Then I collect 3 numbers, then start agressively pressing. Once I have made 400, I usually take it down at that point.

The 3 ways to make big wins in addition to this are:
1. Pass line with 10x odds (0.19% house edge without any help from controlled throw, if you can't beat this bet; you don't have any skill.) 2-1-2-3-4-5 etc progression of the pass line and full 10x odds can keep it profitable if you win the first one. (not that progression works, it loses money if you miss your first bet; just like all bets.
2. $6 hard 6 or 8 when shooting for a 6 or 8, 9% house edge; but if it hits, I press it to $10 and collect $50. I've hit 4 in a row while making this bet at the casino.
3. $5 on the sharpshooter, firebet or bet them all (a bet that you will hit all of the numbers before sevening out.) Another high house edge bet, but by setting for the number I want; I have hit these in practice sessions (they don't have these locally, I will do it when shooting well and in areas they are available.) These have horrible house edges, so only consider it once you have developed a superior level of skill.

If you choose a high house edge bet, make sure the pass line with odds is much bigger so if you win the low house edge bet; you're shot at a very big win is just gravy.

The best bet is to seek 4-6 skilled dice controllers to start a local craps team. Unlike blackjack, no bankroll sharing or travel. Just find a place with low minimums , short tables, 10x or more odds and a high variance side bet you think you can beat. The best thing about regression betting in place bets is that for 1 roll they have lower house edge, so you can have a low house edge for 1 roll and try to get it quick. I look at it more from a risk of ruin standpoint, if you lose a $5 high variance bet and win a $10 pass line and $200 on your $100 odds on Ten, then it's okay. You still made money. If you like an idea, try it; if you don't like it, discard it.

If betting on a random roller, either do pl with odds or dp. I wait for 3 tens or fours without a 7, then lay it once. The odds may not change, but I rarely see that 4th ten or four from a random roller. My best roll was 60 rolls and I got 6 tens and 6 fours. My best lifetime stat (4 years) is I have made as many four and ten point numbers as I have lost, expectation is 1/3 and I made 1/2. At 300 points, I had made 62% of them, but that number went down; probably to 52% but I lost those statistics, so I can't be sure. It was still good, but closer than I'd like.

I'm focusing on card counting more now, though I'd start a dice team before a cards team; no bankroll sharing or travel makes it easier to test.

Dyvan13:

With your small sized practice table, I find it highly unlikely that these rolls are
unaffected by reacting against side walls, each other, assuming they even stay on the table.
Do you really think you have any dice control at this newbie point of your foray into DI?
It's been years since I paid to be in any of these "DI" websites but I remember how many
users would post their roll stats on ousands of pages of junk that would get
attention and applause from others so doing. Tons of tossing advice, tweaks, encouragement, etc...
I suggest you post your rolls on one of those sites. This site is far less forgiving.
Just think for a second about how many hundreds of these DI-Wannabees would be out there
every day making millions if their "stats" were anything but bogus. The variance in craps
is brutal and can make a "believer" out of many against their better judgement.

Don't get me wrong. I have nothing against posting rolls and asking questions. I only take
issue with "real" stats that are not provided such that they are meaningful.
Hypothetical questions aside, if you post a real set of rolls it would be helpful to say
how they were obtained. For example, SR/SL/SO 12 vs. 14 ft. what kind of shot, did you record
ONLY valid rolls unaffected by your practice environment constraints, etc.

I am in no way saying that I am worth even documenting my rolls when I attempt DI. (Gotta get that out of the way up front.)

On my recent cruise I was bent on trying this "dice control" thing. I watched hour of video and could only remember one set (6&8). I played DC most of the time, except when I was shooting and except when Grandma was shooting (more on that in a second). Here are my anecdotal observations.

1. I hit 6 & 8 quite a bit (at least it felt that way) and most of the time I had longer rolls than the average at the table (by maybe about 2-4 more points made).
2. Most of my 7's were when I did something mechanically off (e.g. hesitation mid-swing, not the same back swing, etc) and most of those were accompanied with "##@*" while the dice were in the air. Statistically probably no more than random, but it felt like it was the point where people were jokingly asking the dealers if they could have their bets off when I swore in mid-roll.
3. Grandma (some older lady that also played every night) was already shooting the second night when I got to the table. She was a grab-and-shake kind of setting at all. Just grab-and-go. In the time I was watching she rolled for 40 or 45 minutes (I know because I never bet mid-turn and I watch most of my allotted time that night slip away during her turn). For some reason whenever Grandma was rolling through the cruise she would last a long time. Grandma was oft talked about because her rolls were epic.

The bottom line from all of that? Maybe there is a little something to dice setting (and I do believe that), but for n00bs it is almost very certainly luck and it is human nature to mistake deviation as a something that works. I will continue to set dice when I makes me feel better.

And if the results from DI are that good then there should be people who quit their job and only earn a living from shooting dice. Right?

Quote: mnyakko

And if the results from DI are that good then there should be people who quit their job and only earn a living from shooting dice. Right?

If someone did, would they be stupid enough to post it here? Of course there is a forum out there where a few nuked members claim they do, but trust worthy they are not.

Quote: mnyakko

And if the results from DI are that good then there should be people who quit their job and only earn a living from shooting dice. Right?

I have yet to find or meet anyone that makes a living from DI (Other than the people teaching schools, selling something, advertising, books or just scamming.)

There's people who have money that might not have a real job and play craps daily and claim they do it for a living, however most of them figure out within a year or so that their bank roll isn't growing.

I guess it's better for real AP's that they don't put that time, effort and money into legitimate AP methods.

If DI did work, which I haven't completely ruled out as possible, I doubt any DI shooter would last more than an hour at a table based on my own personal experiences at the craps table. I've had more than a few run ins with the craps pit bosses simply because I refuse to hit the back wall with both dice. They are incredibly paranoid and robotic in their insistence that I adhere to their stupid rule even after I point out that I am simply lobbing the dice high in the air and it is truly a random roll. (Since I am only playing at the craps table socially with a friend I usually continue to roll in a random way until they usually bar me from handling the dice,) I find it quite ridiculous since if you observed my roll you would agree that it was in no way a so called "controlled throw".

Anyway, I can only picture someone who can actually throw a controlled throw that would bounce off the back wall so softly and barely turn over and do this repeatedly in front of casino craps boss and do it successfully and in his favor - that dice thrower wouldn't last more than one rotation at the table.

Bottom line, if DI does work, good luck implementing it at a table for any real money.