True test of your SRR
Quote: AlanMendelsonWell of course you want come out 7s when you're betting the fire. Come out 7s don't hurt you.
But if you're so good at limiting your 7s to the come out rolls, and rolling numbers after the come out, why not just roll numbers and take advantage of the STA which does not require you to hit the same number twice?
Just how good a DI are you? I'd like to be at the table when you throw. Maybe you will be "true DI #4" that I've seen?
Alan, please understand that the odds of rolling all of those individual numbers whether you are a DI or not, are not greater than the odds of rolling the 7 on the come out roll, DI or not. And that, the money wagered towards the STA could better be placed as a pass line bet during a come out roll with a DI intentionally trying to roll 7's, than a DI intentionally trying to roll the STA. Further, you have mentioned this a few times in the thread, but nobody cares about not having to roll a repeater to knock it down. I personally do not believe any DI in the world could roll this consistently enough to make money on, its just too difficult.
I'm not the greatest DI, but I'm probably one of the most practical who actually puts emphasis on making money rather than hitting long shots. You're welcome to join a table with me anytime.
Quote: Exoter175I'm not the greatest DI, but I'm probably one of the most practical who actually puts emphasis on making money rather than hitting long shots. You're welcome to join a table with me anytime.
One observation I have is that when people SAY that they are interesting in "making money" what I observe is that they like to increase their pay frequency.
But let me assume you're not one of those types, and let me ask you what are your lifetime winnings per roll?
A good player who plays intelligently should be able to say something like "minus $0.02/roll are my lifetime losses in craps" with a high degree of confidence if they always played at $5 or lower limit tables and only bet free odds besides the pass line.
But if you are putting an emphasis on making money, how much money, on average, have you made as a function of roll count in your estimate?
$0.02 per roll profit? More?
Quote: AlanMendelsonThanks for the offer. Please private message me with your next Vegas trip. I'm a four hour car ride away.
Keep wandering the boards, following up all leads in your never-ending search for the REAL craps messiah.
Quote: AlanMendelsonLet me get back to my basic premise:
DIs claim that being a DI gives them an attractive SRR. If you have an attractive SRR the STA bet is for you. You don't have to make any passes, and you don't even have to repeat any number.
Only ignorant DIs pay attention to SRR, and SRR is poorly correlated with the STA bets anyway. Really, do the math and check for yourself.
So if you're an ignorant DI and don't care about making bets that correlate with your supposed skill, sure, go ahead and play the STA bets and track your SRR. But if you're actually serious about the premise that throwing the dice can yield non-uniform die face outcomes, you're well-advised to figure out the optimum bet spread for your supposed advantage rather than relying on a simplistic and inaccurate metric like SRR.
Quote: MathExtremistOnly ignorant DIs pay attention to SRR, and SRR is poorly correlated with the STA bets anyway. Really, do the math and check for yourself.
So if you're an ignorant DI and don't care about making bets that correlate with your supposed skill, sure, go ahead and play the STA bets and track your SRR. But if you're actually serious about the premise that throwing the dice can yield non-uniform die face outcomes, you're well-advised to figure out the optimum bet spread for your supposed advantage rather than relying on a simplistic and inaccurate metric like SRR.
Could argue for 11 more pages....he's not going to figure it out.
Quote: RSCould argue for 11 more pages....he's not going to figure it out.
No no no. It's 6 pages!! :-D
Priceless!Quote: IbeatyouracesNo no no. It's 6 pages!! :-D
Quote: MathExtremistPriceless!
Thank RS for setting that one up.
The DIs boast about their SRR hence why I started this thread.
I wonder if the DI schools are adding the STA bets to their strategy books?
Quote: AlanMendelsonThanks for the offer. Please private message me with your next Vegas trip. I'm a four hour car ride away.
11/9-11/22 Meet me at the Nugget.
Quote: Dalex64Why is having to roll each number at least once better than having to roll one number twice?
Because Alan's an obvious Anti-Fire guy, as well as anti-come/don't come. It shows in his excitement for only having to hit a number once, and that a number that becomes the point on the comeout is included.
Quote: AhighOne observation I have is that when people SAY that they are interesting in "making money" what I observe is that they like to increase their pay frequency.
But let me assume you're not one of those types, and let me ask you what are your lifetime winnings per roll?
A good player who plays intelligently should be able to say something like "minus $0.02/roll are my lifetime losses in craps" with a high degree of confidence if they always played at $5 or lower limit tables and only bet free odds besides the pass line.
But if you are putting an emphasis on making money, how much money, on average, have you made as a function of roll count in your estimate?
$0.02 per roll profit? More?
That's actually a really good question Ahigh. And I don't have the answer for you because I have only been documenting my craps rolls/winnings for about 1.5 years now, and a lot of that information is compartmentalized to specific occurrences.
Examples:
1. Money I've made on my rolls
2. Money I've made on other peoples rolls
3. Money I've made from craps tournaments
4. Money I've made from comps
5. Money I've made from Significant Feature/Proposition bets (IE Fire bet).
When you say roll, are you referring to the money made for a single toss of the dice, or money made per "roll" from comeout to seven out? I haven't considered tracking that information though I could probably whip up the data from independent documentations that I've made.
I would imagine that number would likely be in the realm of ~$1.75 per roll over the span of all of my rolls, in terms of raw profit, though I imagine that if I crunch the numbers, I'll find that the number might actually be considerably higher, perhaps into the ~$3.25/roll territory. Part of the reason I consider the possibility of such fluctuation is because of the rate at which I've gotten into some monster rolls, number of times I've hit the fire bet for significant money, as well as other more rare occurrences like rolling for 2 hours and 14 minutes on 91 rolls, and being at table max on my 4/6/8/10 by the time the 7 came. I've certainly had my fair share of point-doinks in my life to kind of counter the extremes to this, but the winnings far surpass the losses in this case.
You have me really curious now, and I'll have to start considering documenting each session in a profit/roll manner on top of the "usual suspects" for what I record.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI am not the DI here though I try.
The DIs boast about their SRR hence why I started this thread.
I wonder if the DI schools are adding the STA bets to their strategy books?
Which DI's boast about their SRR? Which DI's even talk about SRR in the first place?
This is what I'm trying to get at. I'm a DI, and I didn't even know what SRR meant when I first read it. Why? Because it is unimportant. If I'm able to throw a set of dice a specific way and more commonly come up with a specific grouping of numbers, I have an advantage and I wager towards that advantage. Nothing more. Whether I roll for 90 rolls or 3 rolls won't matter, because even if I can never beat the number 6, if those 6 happen to land 4 times on a specific number that I've placed or wagered, I'm probably going to make money on my roll, even if I only ever roll the dice 6 times. Right? That's what DI is about. Its not about going on giant rolls of 100+ rolls. Most DI's have never done that, most never will. I haven't, to my knowledge, and my greatest roll of all time I've been chasing for years and still haven't come close.
And I can tell you that because I believe the STA is a fools bet in relation to DI, I doubt any of those "Teachers" in those "Schools" will be suggesting it either. Of course, what do I know? I'm self taught and don't know the entirety of the community, nor the fools who buy into the "systems".
He used to play mostly craps but switched over to VP: you scratch BOTH of his itches.
Are YOU the one?
Quote: Exoter1752. Money I've made on other peoples rolls
3. Money I've made from craps tournaments
If you're a DI and are trying to profit from craps, why are you betting on other people's rolls either in cash games or tournaments? Or do you minimize your bets when you do? If you're at a full table betting the same amount per hand, you don't just have to be a successful DI to beat the game -- you have to be so successful on your roll so as to overcome the expected loss from everyone else's.
If I were a DI, the last thing I'd do is play at a crowded, low-limit table. I'd arrange for a private $25 or $100 table (bankroll size depending) and have the edge on every roll, not just 1/10 of them. Plus, nobody's hands or chips (or the puck) are at the other end of the table.
Quote:This is what I'm trying to get at. I'm a DI, and I didn't even know what SRR meant when I first read it. Why? Because it is unimportant. If I'm able to throw a set of dice a specific way and more commonly come up with a specific grouping of numbers, I have an advantage and I wager towards that advantage. Nothing more.
Most people don't get as far as figuring that out. If you haven't heard of SRR, you haven't read the books published about 10-20 years ago that purported to teach people how to throw the dice. It's just as well. I've said numerous times that the SRR statistic doesn't correlate well to the altered edge on any of the important (that is, conditionally beatable) craps bets, where "conditionally" assumes that the player actually can influence the dice.
I don't think STA is conditionally beatable except in extreme circumstances though I haven't plugged it into the model. It wouldn't matter; pass+odds would be a better gainer regardless.
Quote: MathExtremistIf you're a DI and are trying to profit from craps, why are you betting on other people's rolls either in cash games or tournaments? Or do you minimize your bets when you do? If you're at a full table betting the same amount per hand, you don't just have to be a successful DI to beat the game -- you have to be so successful on your roll so as to overcome the expected loss from everyone else's.
If I were a DI, the last thing I'd do is play at a crowded, low-limit table. I'd arrange for a private $25 or $100 table (bankroll size depending) and have the edge on every roll, not just 1/10 of them. Plus, nobody's hands or chips (or the puck) are at the other end of the table.
Most people don't get as far as figuring that out. If you haven't heard of SRR, you haven't read the books published about 10-20 years ago that purported to teach people how to throw the dice. It's just as well. I've said numerous times that the SRR statistic doesn't correlate well to the altered edge on any of the important (that is, conditionally beatable) craps bets, where "conditionally" assumes that the player actually can influence the dice.
I don't think STA is conditionally beatable except in extreme circumstances though I haven't plugged it into the model. It wouldn't matter; pass+odds would be a better gainer regardless.
It should have been pretty clear if you have read this thread, and my responses, that I don't bet the same way for me as I do others, no DI would ever do that. Some DI's only bet on themselves or other DI's, and some of us wager towards the 7 against truly random rollers. Me personally, I like taking odds against the 4/10 on the DP/DC, or laying them.
I've hear of SRR before, I'm being sarcastic with that because I've never heard it discussed in this way, in this manner, or for this way, with such "importance". As if somehow a great SRR would make the STA bet a "better" bet, than anything else out there offered, and it just isn't. The amount of money you'll wager towards it would be best spent (as a DI) towards other things.
Quote: MrVNo doubt Alan is anxious to meet up with you, a self-proclaimed expert at beating both machines and dice.
He used to play mostly craps but switched over to VP: you scratch BOTH of his itches.
Are YOU the one?
Perhaps I might be, but if he's going to argue with me about the merits of what a DI truly is or does, and whether or not certain statistics matter like SRR, and he can't see past the misconception that the STA for a DI is an awful bet, I'm not sure I'd be "the one".
Quote: Pinit2winitIn any matter, where ever this meeting shall take place let me know so I can come enjoy some craps with forum members. Whether I witness di or not I'm sure fun shall be had.
I can't promise anything magical, but the dates are set :P
Quote: MathExtremist
If I were a DI, the last thing I'd do is play at a crowded, low-limit table. I'd arrange for a private $25 or $100 table (bankroll size depending) and have the edge on every roll, not just 1/10 of them. Plus, nobody's hands or chips (or the puck) are at the other end of the table..
I understand the second part of your point, but why do you think $25. or even $100.usd min. is going to get you a private table? I've never seen a private table with less than $1000.usd min. but I haven't been around as much as you I'm sure. Please do tell us. Kind regards.
Quote: NokTangI understand the second part of your point, but why do you think $25. or even $100.usd min. is going to get you a private table? I've never seen a private table with less than $1000.usd min. but I haven't been around as much as you I'm sure. Please do tell us. Kind regards.
They don't exist at that level, and the casino won't make it happen. You've got to be a $1,000/bet whale to get a private table like that in anywhere "nice". Even my buddy "B" who is a big time gambler here in the heartland can't get a "private" table, but he will get the full attention of the floor and anything he desires (aside from a private table) since he plays $320 across minimum.
Also, back to ME's post, Craps DI is very different from Card Counting Blackjack, I don't necessarily want a table all to myself, I'd feel rushed a lot, with little time to collect my thoughts and ponder on various things, whereas on a BJ table, I want heads up vs the dealer, as fast as humanly possible. Its a very different "game" to be played there. Also, since the other players at the table do nothing to affect my roll (short of grabbing the dice mid air), but rather, slow the game down, I'm actually gaining more of an advantage this way, because my comps are going to milk out much, much further when the PB enters me in at $80/bet average, and Betty Joe and Bobby Sue are constantly slowing the game down for center action. The "time" isn't the primary factory in making the money, but rather the result of the dice thrown, so long as I continue to roll the dice, it really won't matter if I'm rolling once every 1.4 minutes, or once every 1.1 minutes, but I'll be the first to tell you that there is a HUMONGOUS difference in comps given from 1.1/roll to 1.4/roll, especially when you're pressing the bet. I was once in midwestern casino in the middle of a cornfield, playing craps. Laid the 4/10 on heavy from the start, and seemed like every 3rd or 4th roll, the 7 would pop up on these guys, so I sat there for 4-5 hours with my 4/10 lay for $100 a piece, made roughly $1,600 by the end of the session, never touched the dice once. Came back the next day, decided to roll the dice since the table wasn't very busy, went on a monster roll. They booked me at $115 average bet, I rolled for about 1 hour and 15 minutes, rolled the dice all total about 55 times, hitting twelve points. I was on absolute fire (literally because I hit a 5 point fire). By the time I hit my third point on this roll (third overall, not individual) there was suddenly a crowd of people pouring money onto the table to "Get in" on the roll. Most of them were kind enough to wait in between points before they bought in (etiquette goes a long way). After about 11 or 12 rolls (the same time in which I had knocked down my third point) we went from something like .40 minutes/roll, to somewhere around 1.5 minutes/roll with all the center action these guys were tossing in. By the time my roll was over, I had made a pretty hefty profit, but because these guys all hopped in and slowed the game down, I got to milk my comps quite a bit further than normal. In those two days I managed to go from "new card holder" to "first tier VIP card holder" purely from the way they rated those two craps games (and perhaps they rate craps higher in general, but I had never seen a place rate it so highly before in terms of tier points by comparison to what I was betting, even factoring in the differences in $/in per tier point.
Point is, at the end of the day my roll was probably going to last the same amount of rolls, it was merely the amount of time in between the throws that had changed, and in doing so, increased my EV for that period thanks to the offers, free play, and other goodies they ended up sending me, based on my play.
Its entirely possible that roll could have gone on for 15 minutes on a private table, and rating my card would have been otherwise pointless.
I saw a $500 bettor at a reserved table on the Caesars main floor once, but I'm not talking about a Strip casino when I say private at $100. A smaller regional casino should be willing to open a private table for a black chipper especially midday, midweek. Someone do me a favor and go ask whether the ElCo would. A single black chip on the passline is worth more than a whole table of $1 hardway bettors, and continuous $100 on the line is worth about $300/hour to a casino because you can throw quickly. If you're not a DI, that is. $300/hour is much higher than a typical regional table earns. If you *are* a DI, solo play maximizes your opportunity to bet on your own throw and turn that $300/hour cost into something profitable.Quote: NokTangI understand the second part of your point, but why do you think $25. or even $100.usd min. is going to get you a private table? I've never seen a private table with less than $1000.usd min. but I haven't been around as much as you I'm sure. Please do tell us. Kind regards.
Well just let me know! i just did hit 1650 on that penny slot so a few hundreds are itching for dice action.
Quote: DeMangoThe idea of private table is interesting. But are there not high limit tables in high limit rooms in Vegas? Anybody got a list and minimums?
There is no private gaming in Nevada. Nevada is an "open gaming" state meaning that any slob of the street can walk into a casino -- even a high limit room -- and watch.
On my own forum I talked about how I walked through the private gaming areas in the Palace Court at Caesars (doors are wide open) but I never walked in. I just wanted to see what was going on. And the answer was... not much.
In particular I was looking for the private room that had a craps table, a roulette table and a blackjack table plus a kitchen, bathroom and shower that I was told about by some dealers. But I couldn't find it.
I remember a craps table in the Palace Court some years ago but I was under the impression it was moved out onto the main gaming floor. But the dealers said the special room was down a hallway and I wasn't spelunking that day.
I was wearing jeans, a "street jacket" meaning it was crumpled and dirty, and old Nikes (my usual gaming uniform) and no one even looked at me. During that visit I was watching the baccarat play along with others and no one even looked in my direction.
Quote: NokTangI understand the second part of your point, but why do you think $25. or even $100.usd min. is going to get you a private table? I've never seen a private table with less than $1000.usd min. but I haven't been around as much as you I'm sure. Please do tell us. Kind regards.
I can't talk about other casinos but at Caesars Palace if you have a $25,000 credit line you can have your own table. I've seen NBA and NFL players and young kids with $25,000 in their rail playing at their own table. A good friend of mine who is in real estate sometimes would have his own table with a $25,000 "buy in."
I had a private table at Caesars when I was married there (different circumstances, I know) and I was able to set the table minimum. At the time everything at Caesars was $25 and up, and they allowed me to have a $10 table for my relatives and friends.
Today things are different. Caesars seems to always have $10 tables and they even have a $5 table in the Forum casino. I wonder if you could get a private table for even less than a $25,000 credit line??
Another option is to play at Bellagio where there are $15 tables and you are likely to find an "open table" in the late night hours or during the daytime hours.
Quote: Exoter17511/9-11/22 Meet me at the Nugget.
Please keep in touch with me on this. Monday the 9th is an excellent day for me to hook up with you because it is my usual day off. I can easily meet up with you at the time you set. I think it would be appropriate if we exchanged cell phone numbers via PM.
Quote: MrVNo doubt Alan is anxious to meet up with you, a self-proclaimed expert at beating both machines and dice.
Tsk, tsk. I've never claimed to have a winning year at casino play. Though my $100,000 royal two weeks ago at Caesars might make this year different. :-)
Quote: Alan
There is no private gaming in Nevada. Nevada is an "open gaming" state meaning that any slob of the street can walk into a casino -- even a high limit room -- and watch.
For the most part, true. However, if you read the gaming regulations, private gaming areas are allowed, but the gaming commission has to approve of it. Lots of weird rules and loopholes about it. For example, the casino can charge an entry fee to a gaming area (but that must be approved by gaming), and if that happens there must be at least equal number of similar games in other public areas of that casino....the games in the private/fee-charged area cannot be changed unless approved by NGC.
I remember seeing part of the regulation posted near the MGM Grand and Aria's high limit room...but the pieces posted are not the whole thing.
Quote: Alan
There is no private gaming in Nevada. Nevada is an "open gaming" state meaning that any slob of the street can walk into a casino -- even a high limit room -- and watch.
I don't think that's true....
We must also ask if these slob's can eat the food on offer, buffet style, in said high limit rooms? I seriously doubt it.
I recall specifically being told I could not enter a private high limit room at the Mirage about ten years ago. I also have my doubts the two(I know of) high limit poker rooms, one at the Belagio and other "Phil's room" at I think it's the Aria? allow people to just come in and watch.
Quote: MathExtremistA single black chip on the passline is worth more than a whole table of $1 hardway bettors, and continuous $100 on the line is worth about $300/hour to a casino because you can throw quickly. If you're not a DI, that is. $300/hour is much higher than a typical regional table earns. If you *are* a DI, solo play maximizes your opportunity to bet on your own throw and turn that $300/hour cost into something profitable.
A lot of assumptions you present there as if they are facts....
If there were such a thing as a "DI", he/she would know exactly where and when to play. I think you have in one short post convinced the world such a person doesn't exist.
1. The Legislature hereby finds, and declares to be the public policy of this state, that:
(e) To ensure that gaming is conducted honestly, competitively and free of criminal and corruptive elements, all gaming establishments in this state must remain open to the general public and the access of the general public to gaming activities must not be restricted in any manner except as provided by the Legislature.
Quote: AlanMendelsonNRS 463.0129 Public policy of state concerning gaming; license or approval revocable privilege.
1. The Legislature hereby finds, and declares to be the public policy of this state, that:
(e) To ensure that gaming is conducted honestly, competitively and free of criminal and corruptive elements, all gaming establishments in this state must remain open to the general public and the access of the general public to gaming activities must not be restricted in any manner except as provided by the Legislature.
The food Alan...what about the food in the high limit rooms? Can anyone just go in there and help herself?
Celebrities are also give security presence to avoid gawkers.
While once again your intent is great, but reality tends to make you come across as very naive.
Cheers mate.
Private gaming salons were authorized by the Nevada legislature in 2001.Quote: AlanMendelsonNRS 463.0129 Public policy of state concerning gaming; license or approval revocable privilege.
1. The Legislature hereby finds, and declares to be the public policy of this state, that:
(e) To ensure that gaming is conducted honestly, competitively and free of criminal and corruptive elements, all gaming establishments in this state must remain open to the general public and the access of the general public to gaming activities must not be restricted in any manner except as provided by the Legislature.
Quote:NRS 463.15995 Regulations governing charging of fee for admission to area in which gaming is conducted.
1. The Commission shall, with the advice and assistance of the Board, adopt regulations authorizing a gaming licensee to charge a fee for admission to an area in which gaming is conducted in accordance with the provisions of this section.
2. The regulations adopted by the Commission pursuant to this section must include, without limitation, provisions that:
(a) A gaming licensee may not charge a fee pursuant to this section unless:
(1) The Chair of the Board grants administrative approval of a request by a gaming licensee to charge such a fee; and
(2) Such administrative approval is not revoked or suspended by the Chair of the Board.
(b) The Chair of the Board may, in the Chair’s sole and absolute discretion, grant, deny, limit, condition, restrict, revoke or suspend any administrative approval of a request by a gaming licensee to charge a fee pursuant to this section. In considering such a request, the Chair of the Board shall consider all relevant factors, including, without limitation:
(1) The size of the area;
(2) The amount of gaming that occurs within the area;
(3) The types and quantity of gaming offered;
(4) The business purpose of the area;
(5) Other amenities that are offered within the area;
(6) The amount of the costs and expenses incurred in creating the area;
(7) The benefit to the State in having gaming conducted within the area;
(8) The amount of the fee charged and whether the fee charged is unreasonable as compared to the prevailing practice within the industry; and
(9) Whether the area should more appropriately be treated as a gaming salon.
Ê The decision of the Chair of the Board regarding such a request may be appealed by the gaming licensee to the Commission pursuant to its regulations.
(c) A gaming licensee who charges a fee pursuant to this section:
(1) Shall deposit with the Board and thereafter maintain a refundable revolving fund in an amount determined by the Commission to pay the expenses of admission of agents of the Board or Commission to the area for which a fee for admission is charged.
(2) Shall arrange for access by agents of the Board or Commission to the area for which a fee for admission is charged.
(3) Shall, at all times that a fee is charged for admission to an area pursuant to this section in an establishment for which a nonrestricted license has been issued, provide for the public at least the same number of gaming devices and games in a different area for which no fee is charged for admission.
(4) Shall, at all times that a fee is charged for admission to an area pursuant to this section in an establishment for which a restricted license has been issued, post a sign of a suitable size in a conspicuous place near the entrance of the establishment that provides notice to patrons that they do not need to pay an admission fee or cover charge to engage in gaming.
(5) Shall not use a fee charged for admission to create a private gaming area that is not operated in association or conjunction with a nongaming activity, attraction or facility.
(6) Shall not restrict admission to the area for which a fee for admission is charged to a patron on the ground of race, color, religion, national origin or disability of the patron, and any unresolved dispute with a patron concerning restriction of admission shall be deemed a dispute as to the manner in which a game is conducted pursuant to NRS 463.362 and must be resolved pursuant to NRS 463.362 to 463.366, inclusive.
(d) If a gaming licensee who holds a nonrestricted license charges a fee pursuant to this section, unless the area for which a fee for admission is charged is otherwise subject to the excise tax on admission to any facility in this State where live entertainment is provided pursuant to chapter 368A of NRS, the determination of the amount of the liability of the gaming licensee for that tax:
(1) Includes the fees charged for admission pursuant to this section; and
(2) Does not include charges for food, refreshments and merchandise collected in the area for which admission is charged.
(Added to NRS by 2005, 1355)
Exoter, by your best estimate and the numbers you have collected during your career: What is your probability of rolling a 7 on the come-out roll? Thanks a lot!
Quote: AlanMendelsonTsk, tsk. I've never claimed to have a winning year at casino play. Though my $100,000 royal two weeks ago at Caesars might make this year different. :-)
Not sure how your comment relates to mine.
My point was that Exoter purports to be an expert at both games, and you seem to focus your current play on those two games: VP and craps.
I have to think that some LV locals who frequent this board (you know who you are) would enjoy showing up to watch Exoter roll dem bones while wearing his DI tin foil hat for all to see and admire.
Quote: MrVNot sure how your comment relates to mine.
My point was that Exoter purports to be an expert at both games, and you seem to focus your current play on those two games: VP and craps.
I have to think that some LV locals who frequent this board (you know who you are) would enjoy showing up to watch Exoter roll dem bones while wearing his DI tin foil hat for all to see and admire.
You called me a self proclaimed expert at beating both craps and video poker. NEVER have I claimed to beat craps and video poker. If anything I've reported only my annual losses at both games.
This year because of the big royal might be different. I say might because I had losses throughout this year and I have at least three trips to LV planned including my meeting to watch Exoter.
So my tsk, tsk was aimed at your insulting remark.
Tsk, tsk.
As Larry Flynt has shown so often on televised reports. In addition to some of the more exclusive poker programs.Quote: MathExtremistPrivate gaming salons were authorized by the Nevada legislature in 2001.
Quote: Pinit2winitAlan do you wear shirts that say "direct all hate this way" seems like people wont get off your nuts over opinions. At least once a week i see some hate your way.
My whole life it's been the same way. Sometimes it's because I beat the odds and came out ahead -- like with my career.
Other times, when I talk about being unlucky people don't believe me.
I've had plenty of bad luck and rough times in my life, including my 32 years as an insulin dependent diabetic, then kidney failure, then being blessed with a combination kidney and pancreas transplant that also cured being a diabetic.
I've had other illnesses and injuries too that I don't talk about. I've had big family problems. So, you get used to the crap people throw your way. I know what's really important.
Quote: MrVJust wondering, Exoter, whether you'd be willing to open up your craps session with Alan to others who may be interested in watching. After all, a DI who has no qualms about walking the walk as well as talking the talk is a rarity indeed on this board. While I won't be there to watch, if given the opportunity I suspect others certainly would enjoy it. Heck, it could even turn out to be a mini- WoVCon, with the Wiz showing up.
As long as everyone is "playing" and not just sitting there over my shoulder trying to yap at me, I have no problem with it.
Quote: AlanMendelsonPlease keep in touch with me on this. Monday the 9th is an excellent day for me to hook up with you because it is my usual day off. I can easily meet up with you at the time you set. I think it would be appropriate if we exchanged cell phone numbers via PM.
Sure thing. I will confess, I might not have a whole lot of available time on the 9th, as this is a "working" trip with the boys, so we'll definitely need to get together on a time and place to have a little shindig. There is about a 25% chance I'm going to have to push those dates back a week as I just got into a Craps Tournament in my region for the 6th/7th and we were planning on driving down so I'll update here if there are any changes to that itinerary.
Quote: Canyonero@exoter175
Exoter, by your best estimate and the numbers you have collected during your career: What is your probability of rolling a 7 on the come-out roll? Thanks a lot!
1:6 like anyone else.
Look guys, I can't change the probability at all. There will always bee six sides to the dice, and that is out of my hands.
That being said, in the time that I have kept my own records, I can say that I've been "fortunate" to roll better than 1:6(1:4.8) on the comeout rolls thusfar, which is a BIIIIIIG part of where I make my money on the table.
Quote: Exoter175I might not have a whole lot of available time on the 9th, as this is a "working" trip with the boys, so we'll definitely need to get together on a time and place to have a little shindig. There is about a 25% chance I'm going to have to push those dates back a week as I just got into a Craps Tournament in my region for the 6th/7th and we were planning on driving down so I'll update here if there are any changes to that itinerary.
I'm still flexible so let me know your changes and please when we get close we should exchange cell phone numbers by private message.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou called me a self proclaimed expert at beating both craps and video poker.
Do not take me to tsk over your misinterpretation of what I wrote.
I claimed Exoter was the self-proclaimed craps and VP expert.
Not you.
Exoter, you estimate your 7 ratio at 1:4.8. Let's make it a little easier for you and assume 1:5 or 20%
In 100 rolls, your likelihood of rolling 20 7s or more ist 54%. Again, let's make it interesting for you and assume only 50%. So we are at even money.
I offer the following even money wager:
Next time in Vegas, you do 100 rolls on a regulation Craps table (provided by independent third party). If you roll 20 7s or more, you win, If you roll 19 7s or less, I win. The stake is $1000 each. If you want to do more, we can talk about it.
With your 1 in 4.8 seven chance, you already have a huge edge. To make it more interesting for you, I offer you $100 in juice up front for accepting the bet. You get those $100 no matter what.
Not only is it free money for you, but together we will do something to futher the cause of legitimate DI. What do you think?
Quote: CanyoneroA challenge for Exoter:
Exoter, you estimate your 7 ratio at 1:4.8. Let's make it a little easier for you and assume 1:5 or 20%
In 100 rolls, your likelihood of rolling 20 7s or more ist 54%. Again, let's make it interesting for you and assume only 50%. So we are at even money.
I offer the following even money wager:
Next time in Vegas, you do 100 rolls on a regulation Craps table (provided by independent third party). If you roll 20 7s or more, you win, If you roll 19 7s or less, I win. The stake is $1000 each. If you want to do more, we can talk about it.
With your 1 in 4.8 seven chance, you already have a huge edge. To make it more interesting for you, I offer you $100 in juice up front for accepting the bet. You get those $100 no matter what.
Not only is it free money for you, but together we will do something to futher the cause of legitimate DI. What do you think?
That smelled like a WoV challenge, though it wasn't explicitly described that way. Good luck to all!
