DicePhD
DicePhD
Joined: Aug 24, 2014
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 43
August 24th, 2014 at 10:38:56 AM permalink
First post here.

I am a PhD student in a quantitative discipline, and I am interested in studying the quantitative properties of craps.... everything from the statistics to the physics. I play the game for fun (in Shreveport where I can get 100x odds on a $5 min table).

I am interested in collaborating with someone (Ahigh, are you out there?) to use my money and real-casino rolls in conjunction with software to analyze the optimal sets, etc. for my throw. I do not claim I can "influence" the dice, but after ~75 hours of live craps play on my own throw, I have reason to suspect a bias. Short-term variance perhaps, but I am willing to pay to keep learning.

The unique aspect of where I play is that the odds structure allows for a miniscule house edge. I don't have the bankroll to play $500 odds each roll, but I typically play around 20x odds, which, with the appropriate bankroll, can lower overall variance.

Anyway, as I'm already rambling, I just want to reach out and see if anyone might be interested in partnering up.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
August 24th, 2014 at 10:45:21 AM permalink
Quote: DicePhD

First post here.
<snip>
to analyze the optimal sets, etc. for my throw. <snip>

nice
you really need to post in a different forum

Please have this moved to the Dice Setting forum where it belongs

"If ye have faith as a grain of mustard seed, nothing shall be impossible unto you."

Thank you and have more fun
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8623
August 24th, 2014 at 11:06:58 AM permalink
Quote: DicePhD

20x odds, which, with the appropriate bankroll, can lower overall variance.



The odds bet increases variance.
Sonny44
Sonny44
Joined: May 13, 2013
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 217
August 24th, 2014 at 11:13:38 AM permalink
Mustang: Maybe you can clarify this for me, since no one in the past has. It involves "variance," what is meant by it. I see the term used in contexts I don't think it applies. I see "variance" as referring to how much a dice roll "varies" from the expected outcomes of the so-called pyramid of possibilities.

High variance would mean a series of dice rolls depart more from the pyramid predictions, resulting in fewer 7 outs and more points hitting. Low variance would mean they conform more to pyramid predictions, resulting in more 7 outs and fewer points hitting. This is my definition, the mathematical definition of variance. Please don't get into EVs, standard deviations, etc. I am math challenged. ; )

The OP, as many others, talks about lowering "variance" by increasing odds. Doing so doesn't apply to the "variance" as I understand it. So, what does the OP, et al., mean by increasing odds lowers "variance"? The only "variance" I can discern is that it lowers (varies from) the HE.

What do you understand about variance, not only mathematically, but how it's used in posts that seem to use it outside of the probabilities of certain numbers showing according to the pyramid?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
August 24th, 2014 at 11:15:26 AM permalink
Quote: DicePhD

but I typically play around 20x odds, which, with the appropriate bankroll, can lower overall variance.

Ok
prove your statement

Quote: RS

The odds bet increases variance.

Ok
prove your statement
I Heart Vi Hart
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 2463
August 24th, 2014 at 11:21:33 AM permalink
Quote: Sonny44

What do you understand about variance, not only mathematically, but how it's used in posts that seem to use it outside of the probabilities of certain numbers showing according to the pyramid?

I have no opinion about variance other than it is just another word.

now, that is the new angle
Post a craps question and have it centered around Dice setting

I find that rude and offensive and did not want to read about dice setting stuffs
like opening up a video where the link posted by a super super ++ ploppie
contained massive amounts of totally offensive language WITHOUT any notice that existed in the damn video.

DIs have their own universe in my opinion

and here their
own BEAUTIFUL forum for discussion

have more fun

are you still offended?
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 1157
August 24th, 2014 at 11:39:25 AM permalink
Dicephd




If you are going to start with say a $5 pass line bet with 20 odds that is a starting position of $105
with no other bets on the table. You would need at least a gamblng account of $10,000- $11,000 just
to start. Now if you start with 20 odds and placed two come bets with similar odds you would need to
have $30,000 or more.

If you want to put as much as you can in your favor, start with a good class, one that will teach not
only a way to bet affectively, money management, but also throwing work if you have the desire to
take a look in that direction. Ahigh is not the place to start.

IN terms of the desire to go over the math in 17 different directions.. that is a waste of time. The
only math of the game of craps that means anything is were you on the numbers that were being
rolled.

If you started with $300, and cashed out $400, now see thats math.

Dicesetter
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 151
  • Posts: 20040
August 24th, 2014 at 11:43:51 AM permalink
Quote: DicePhD

First post here.

I am a PhD student in a quantitative discipline, and I am interested in studying the quantitative properties of craps.... everything from the statistics to the physics. I play the game for fun (in Shreveport where I can get 100x odds on a $5 min table).

I am interested in collaborating with someone (Ahigh, are you out there?) to use my money and real-casino rolls in conjunction with software to analyze the optimal sets, etc. for my throw. I do not claim I can "influence" the dice, but after ~75 hours of live craps play on my own throw, I have reason to suspect a bias. Short-term variance perhaps, but I am willing to pay to keep learning.

The unique aspect of where I play is that the odds structure allows for a miniscule house edge. I don't have the bankroll to play $500 odds each roll, but I typically play around 20x odds, which, with the appropriate bankroll, can lower overall variance.

Anyway, as I'm already rambling, I just want to reach out and see if anyone might be interested in partnering up.

LOL Swell, Max odds no doubt my best bet on this situation. Easy come easy go. Not enough BR? I just happen to know someone with an extra $2500. He to is an Ahigh fan. Boy oh boy what a wonderful coinkydink, unfortunately he just woke up and found out he got suspended and you showed up just in time, I'm sure you will fill the gap quit nicely. You have similar interests. Welcome nice to have you, we need more craps guys like you.

I to, have reason to suspect a bias in lots of things. PhD student in quantitative discipline writing, how perfect, your teacher would call you out for misspelling minuscule. However, I wouldn't know.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rainman
rainman
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1500
August 24th, 2014 at 11:53:12 AM permalink
Quote: DicePhD

First post here.

I am a PhD student in a quantitative discipline, and I am interested in studying the quantitative properties of craps.... everything from the statistics to the physics. I play the game for fun (in Shreveport where I can get 100x odds on a $5 min table).

I am interested in collaborating with someone (Ahigh, are you out there?) to use my money and real-casino rolls in conjunction with software to analyze the optimal sets, etc. for my throw. I do not claim I can "influence" the dice, but after ~75 hours of live craps play on my own throw, I have reason to suspect a bias. Short-term variance perhaps, but I am willing to pay to keep learning.

The unique aspect of where I play is that the odds structure allows for a miniscule house edge. I don't have the bankroll to play $500 odds each roll, but I typically play around 20x odds, which, with the appropriate bankroll, can lower overall variance.

Anyway, as I'm already rambling, I just want to reach out and see if anyone might be interested in partnering up.



Do you by chance know a guy who knows a girl with the golden touch?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 151
  • Posts: 20040
August 24th, 2014 at 11:57:00 AM permalink
Quote: rainman

Do you by chance know a guy who knows a girl with the golden touch?

Don't be ridiculous.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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