dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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June 2nd, 2014 at 5:34:45 AM permalink
AHIGH




I am sure your aware that there are shooters that target outside numbers and further
that you dont have to have much variance from random to make a profit on them.

Over time on this and other sites we have seen discussed the idea that a person can hit
more hardways than random or 6 & 8 more than random. whether they can or not, i dont really
care, but if a person can in fact hit more of one number than they should in a random game
it may as well be a 4 or 10.

The 4,5,9,10 are the numbers that pay the best, yet nearly every player takes a pass line
bet and 6 & 8 sits there while the shooter throws 3 4's or 4 9's.

In terms of the original question of throwing 7's for a profit is a reasonable question and would
seem to make sense. However you almost need to make it every roll. YOu bet the 3 way you
lose when you dont, you bet heavy on the pass line , you done hit a 7 you can lose on 12 and 2 and 3
plus you have to make your pass number not to lose the line bet.

To me, playing when 4 & 10 are hitting is as much fun as catching a boat loand of fish.

Dicesetter
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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June 2nd, 2014 at 9:15:28 AM permalink
I should add to the discussion that I generally don't play the game this way at all myself and I rarely buy the four or the ten. I generally NEVER place the five or the nine. Not because buying numbers is a bad idea, I just don't happen to do it much myself.

This is all just based on the theory of what number should you target if you can control the dice.

I actually came up with a difficulty rating to demonstrate the theoretical difficulty in overcoming the house edge for a combination of bets based on the assumption that a controlled shot was possible. As an example, the most difficult thing in my list was to hop each easy way for $1 ($15 total) where you profit $1 30/36 rolls and lose $15 on the remaining six rolls. There is probably some other combination of bets that is even more difficult to profit while still leaving an actual opportunity to come out ahead, but trying to get paid more than 5/6ths of the time is the general approach that people take to the game. Doing it all through easy-hops is just the stupidest (and hardest) way to do it as you increase the number of events in your attempt.

You can keep your edge low and try to get paid for anything but a crap if you make a bigger come bet than all the money on the felt, and you have money on every other number already (pays 32/36 rolls) while still keeping the average edge per roll low after getting a bunch of travelled come bets.

Generally speaking, however, trying to increase the frequency of payment is going to hurt you no matter how little you are expecting to get paid as a ratio of your risk.

Laying numbers on crapless is the extreme-end of trying to dodge specific outcomes, and if you did get good at avoiding one or two specific outcomes, that's the only logical place to take your game if you are controlling to NOT roll a narrow band of outcomes.
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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June 2nd, 2014 at 11:37:53 AM permalink
Ahigh



I agree we dont play the same way, and in the end it does not matter to anyone else how we play,
the money we bet we earn and the money we win is great , but what we lose we have also earned.

You seem to like to hit and go or bet big and win or lose. I dont play that way, but i cant say it
would not work for you, simply because i dont play that way. I do best when i see what my roll
is like, and table conditions are like and try to adjust to what i see and then manage to get
a nice roll or atleast be on a nice roll and make a profit, then i leave.

I guess what ever works on that day. We see in fishing tournaments each year where the winner
calls the night before and says they cant fin any fish and then just guess and win the darn thing
when others are on the fish the day before and they get there and they are gone. There are times
luck is better than skill, thats life.

dicesetter
Ahigh
Ahigh
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June 2nd, 2014 at 12:06:36 PM permalink
Quote: dicesitter

You seem to...



You seem to infer I play the same way based on observing my play for a few minutes.

Good thing I didn't lose when you watched, otherwise you'd be saying "you seem to lose."
dicesitter
dicesitter
Joined: Jan 17, 2013
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June 5th, 2014 at 7:31:56 AM permalink
AHIGH



You certainly know that is a false statement. I am not discussing what i observed, i am meerly
reflecting back on your many statements of play where you suggested you throw a time or two
and pass the dice, or hit a number and make a profit and go to another casino.

In addition i did not say there was anything wrong with your play, i just suggested a fact and
that is that we do not play the same type of game.

In terms of what i viewed the time i did see you play, i saw a player that throws the dice basically
the same way and they hit and bounce all over the table. That is not unusual, most people play like
that.

So again there is nothing to take offense for, we both play however we play.

I hope you win more than you lose, either way, i wont make any more or lose any more regardless
how anyone else plays, so i would rather they win.

dicesetter
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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June 5th, 2014 at 1:25:15 PM permalink
Assuming you were able to influence the dice, and I am guessing the best way is to avoid 7's after the come out, would be to keep making Come bets and laying odds. Suppose you were good at rolling 8s, then you might press the odds after a repeat. But the main thing is having a good roll isn't something unexpected - it does happen and it wouldn't look suspicious if you then won a lot. Throwing more 8's than normal and only betting 8's looks very suspicious, but letting the bet increase due to pressing and hitting a lucky streak is something most people do.

For the record I have no idea how to influence dice and always welly them across the table, ensuring they bounce around a lot.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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June 5th, 2014 at 1:33:33 PM permalink
I don't recall ever disclosing any standard methodology of playing that I use on this forum or anywhere else for that matter.

I have disclosed several different betting strategies that are designed to take advantage of a theoretical player-edge roll, but none of which are my standard method of play. And for what it's worth, I don't really have any standard method of play at all. I am, as the dealers will tell you, "all over the place" and unpredictable.
VegasDiceController
VegasDiceController
Joined: Dec 18, 2011
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June 21st, 2014 at 12:34:58 PM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

With the Odds in your favor, and the skill of "Dice Influence" in your hands, why wouldn't the best Craps shooter ever not shoot for the 7?

Do you feel this is possible, or is it just nonsense? Why wouldn't a full fledged sharpshooter not attempt this?
What are your thoughts



Exactly what Ive been doing for a few months now. Lay all numbers behind on the CO Roll to Win increments of 20 since the house VIG is based off of a $20 WIN.

So laying 4/10 for $40 each to Win $20....Laying 5/9 for $30 to Win $20 and laying 6/8 $24 to win $20. A CO 7 and you Win 6 bets of $20 ($120) less the $6 vig for a NET of $114, while only putting at risk 1 bet of a box number. If you take into account the 6/8 should roll more than the 4/10, your risk now becomes $24 +$1 vig=$25 risk to win $114. You could Lose 4 bets and Win 1 bet and still be ahead.

So get good at throwing C.O 7's. Another option is skip 6/8 and take that $24 and add to lay of 5/9 and add $6 ea to make it a $60 to win 40. Yes a hit on 5 and 9 would lose 2 bets but a hit on the 6/8 would net zero and you would take down Lays after the 6/8 rolled.

One could pull the 6/8 of $24 each to putting an additional $40 to win $20 on 4 or 10 additional $$$. Pick the one that's lost the most of the 2. Now you have an extra $9 to deal with and you could use $2-3 to Hop that hard 4 etc. So only number that could screw you would be 2 # of possible 36, so you would reduce your risk even more.

So you roll would look like this...

Do a Doey/Dont for $table minimum...Lay 4 for $80 to win $40 and Lay 10 for $40 to Win 20, Lay the 5&9 for $30 ea to Win $20. Vig is $2.
Leave the 6/8 open and set for a 7. A CO 7 you win a net of $96.
A C.O 6/8 and you Lose zero. You now can take odds on the 6/8 of $10 and your risk to Win $100 is $10 or 1/10 /10% of possible $100 Win on a CO7.
A C.O 5 or 9 and you Lose $31. A C.O easy 10 and you Lose $40 ( a 5% chance to Lose) ... a C.O easy 4 and you lose $80 (a 5% chance to Lose).

So perfect throwing C.O 7's, do a doey/dont P/DP and lay 4,5,9,10, Hop the H4 for $3 and the hop the H10 for $1. You are in a good position to hit multible 7's and when you do hit a point box number, if it happens to be a 6 or 8 you reduce risk and house edge even more.

When tracking the table, when i see 5 consecutive box # rolls without a C.O 7, I look to Lay the back Wall like I posted above. if I lose 3 bets, (now 8 consecutive box CO rolls) I bump above senario up to win $40 instead of $20.

7 Winner...Words to my ears...
http://www.trendsettercraps.com
98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
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June 21st, 2014 at 11:01:06 PM permalink
If you're talkin a guy that can Come-Out 7 at a high rate, yah that would be great. But if not on the come-out, i'll take fiddy-six yo.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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June 21st, 2014 at 11:58:35 PM permalink
Quote: TheWolf713

With the Odds in your favor, and the skill of "Dice Influence" in your hands, why wouldn't the best Craps shooter ever not shoot for the 7?

He would, if he existed, because that would be the least suspicious and most profitable way to make use of his skills. New shooter.... three or four sevens in a row,,, parlay it ....then make a point and hit it. You've already made good money and the whole table is happy and no one is yet suspicious.

Trouble is: Dice Influence only exists in our desires.

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