Random Shooter Law of Average vs. DI
Quote: gpac1377Indeed, but (if my math is correct) you're talking about a sub-40% event achieved better than 60% of the time. That's clearly not realistic on a sustained basis in an actual casino.
IMO :)
Go watch him shoot the dice. Everybody knows the guy. some just pay him to shoot because they know after a couple hits on 9 they are wagering free. I'm telling you That guy rolls those number all the time, he is a "Machine when it come to rolling 6,9 & 5.
I also discovered over the weekends is when he is shooting next to someone he is with, he tends to roll slightly different and it's super easy to spot.
When Bob rolls an 8, he will roll a 10 and also a 3 crap in his next rolls. It sounds crazy but I'm telling you he rolls them like clockwork.
Quote: CrapsGenious
Back in the day, we didn't have "dice controllers", "dice influencers". .
Even as recently as this morning, we still don't have those .
I listed the various gambling writers who have watched me (and other dice controllers) roll the dice. I listed the ones who took the class. These folks were not lightweights in the gambling arena yet the skepticism remains. Some of those writers have played at the same craps tables with me for years. Yet the skepticism remains. I have been banned from one whole state and many casinos in Vegas for dice control --- the latest being Bellagio. Yet the skepticism remains and folks still write that no one has been banned for dice control.
Why would any dice controller who has done the above want to prove to another person he (or she) can do it? Let us say Michael99000 watched or traveled with a dice controller for a while and then reports, "Yes, it is real." Do you really think his advocacy would be a more powerful advocacy than, say, Henry Tamburin or John Grochowski or Don Catlin and others? I think the skepticism would remain.
Now, to reverse gears. I think the skepticism is a good thing. So many "dice setters" are out there and just about all of them are random shooters that this helps those who can really do it. Dice setting is merely one of many steps in dice control; it is not in and of itself dice control.
Other critics think that dice controllers claim they never lose. That is silly. We get our asses kicked many times; no different than card counters or advantage video poker players. Having been an advantage player at several games an "ass kicking" is par for the course.
I do not in any way think that arguing these things on message boards really changes anyone's mind. And that is fine with me.
Okay, so much for fun; now I have to get down to the writing business.
WOW! When i first read this, I really wanted to laugh at you and just bash you for having such a small bank-roll when comparing it to your self proclaimed skills. But then, I thought better if it. Since that was a very honest answer, I have a bit more respect for you. I wish you would have lead with that in the first place, instead of saying all that, I don't care about money crap.Quote: CrapsGeniousI work a part time job, I play craps on weekends, I can't afford to make bets everywhere. I have approx $3k for my bank roll and I use that for hedging my firebets.
I can't be a "high roller" but I want to be.
It's far to risky to chance even setting up a spycam in my clothes. I can be banned for life and be red flagged. again, may not be worth it just to prove I can roll a "7" as silly as it sounds.
I almost think you really do believe you have some kind of special touch, I think this is just selective memory. I have a feeling you are not really keeping track of whats really going on. I have a feeling you may be getting lucky and winning some money, running good on some fire bets. Especially if you add in the tips people are tossing you.
I think Sally did some estimation on how well you should be doing and explained how, if you really did have this skill, a bankroll would not be a problem, you would be cleaning the casinos clocks, even betting modestly your bankroll should be growing at an incredible rate. Anyone with any gambling AP experience or math/logic can see this. This is why we have such a hard time with this entire thing. Something is not adding up. I really do believe you have a selective memory and your running good on top of that.
Spy cam: A simple cell phone will do. You can set it for longer recording speed. There is an app that will shut your screen off while its recording add a bigger micro SD card. Bring a a spare battery and you can switch it when you take a pee break. your top shirt pocket can be altered for recording.
***BETTER YET**** you can get this for about $50 SPY PEN very neat. they have "HD quality" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN4H1B3Ar2A it has incredible video footage********
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1V_JXd55jw
There is a ton of them on the market 8 and 32 gig. You can get 2 or 3 hrs of video at a time, They range in price from $22 used to $79. Buy one if you don't want it after gather your footage send me the pen and the sales slip and I will buy it from you. I suggest getting 2 of them used so you can switch and get 5 hrs of recording if you can the good ones for $35 each.
I think even Bob was 86ed from a casino because he won $400 bucks or something. Do you really believe Being 86'ed from a casino is proof something is working? Is it not possible the guys calling the shots can be wrong? They watch the same crap like, breaking Vegas that everyone else does. They read the same books and see everything as normal people do. It might have something to do with short rolls, It might just be the guy who is making the call is an idiot. I think its better to be safe then sorry type of thing.Quote: FrankScobleteThought I'd jump in for a moment here as I start my workday.
I listed the various gambling writers who have watched me (and other dice controllers) roll the dice. I listed the ones who took the class. These folks were not lightweights in the gambling arena yet the skepticism remains. Some of those writers have played at the same craps tables with me for years. Yet the skepticism remains. I have been banned from one whole state and many casinos in Vegas for dice control --- the latest being Bellagio. Yet the skepticism remains and folks still write that no one has been banned for dice control.
Why would any dice controller who has done the above want to prove to another person he (or she) can do it? Let us say Michael99000 watched or traveled with a dice controller for a while and then reports, "Yes, it is real." Do you really think his advocacy would be a more powerful advocacy than, say, Henry Tamburin or John Grochowski or Don Catlin and others? I think the skepticism would remain.
Now, to reverse gears. I think the skepticism is a good thing. So many "dice setters" are out there and just about all of them are random shooters that this helps those who can really do it. Dice setting is merely one of many steps in dice control; it is not in and of itself dice control.
Other critics think that dice controllers claim they never lose. That is silly. We get our asses kicked many times; no different than card counters or advantage video poker players. Having been an advantage player at several games an "ass kicking" is par for the course.
I do not in any way think that arguing these things on message boards really changes anyone's mind. And that is fine with me.
Okay, so much for fun; now I have to get down to the writing business.
Why would anyone want to show proof? I cant answer why people like Edward O Thorp, Stanford Wong, Bob Dancer, Anthony Curtis, Jean Scott, Ahigh or YOU and the vast amount of others who write books start websites forums or just tell people about things. WHY DO YOU GUYS START DI CLASSES? I can tell you this, anyone can prove DI works they will make a fortune so that's a good reason to prove it. Blur out your face in a video if you are afraid.
That is why counters are feared (much more than they should be, based again on what I have read here and in other places)--because the advantage swings in their direction.
EvenBob proclaims to be an AP roulette player. Since it hasn't been proven in any way, no one really believes him. He's still our EvenBob, the claim of being an AP is just discounted.
I don't know how Frank and his "team" really did, but I will say he made money off of his play because his tales were good enough to get me to buy three or four of his books over the years. The whole axis thing and all sounds great, but those nasty casinos put speed bumps at the end of the road that change the direction of the dice in random ways when they are hit.
Can Frank or anyone on his team control or influence the dice? I don't know. What I do know is that it has not been proven here in any way that the math or science folks agree it is happening. This in spite of a couple of different fellows coming in, saying they influence the dice, and no proof being provided.
I enjoy Frank's writing. I am skeptical about dice control/influence. I wonder about the ban in one state (Mississippi, I believe)--can that be proven? I don't really care; I'll still review parts of the books and other things for betting strategies,etc. I just don't think any of it will make me a winner overall at the craps table.
CG? He comes in talking about a $3,000 bankroll and how he makes the dice do certain things. I believe that he believes that happens. The thing he doesn't talk about is how he wins more than he loses and why his bankroll is not growing (or what big things he bought with his wins, since he should be way ahead). He also talks about making a lot of bets with such high house edges that even a proven controller or influencer could not win against, as Frank has written about.
This leads me to believe that he is not controlling or influencing anything and that he is probably a good guy who has some great session and has the same ability as I do to disregard many of the bad ones. You can lose 10 sessions of $200 and they slip your mind, but that one where you got to $1500 from $200 sticks in your mind. How much did I just lose? $700. Yet I am pumped by the one session, until I look in the safe and see the money dwindling.
My wife? She only sees the $1500 and I lose more when she goes shopping. She has no idea that I lost because the only thing she remembers is when one of us wins. Casinos do that to people.
Real proof or it is not real.
The classes don't forget about the classes. Vegas gets hot. no pun intended. housing market, Blackjack,POKER, craps EVERYTHING Vegas. Shows, movies, "documentaries" are all over.Quote: RonC
I don't know how Frank and his "team" really did, but I will say he made money off of his play because his tales were good enough to get me to buy three or four of his books over the years. The whole axis thing and all sounds great, but those nasty casinos put speed bumps at the end of the road that change the direction of the dice in random ways when they are hit.
Enter DC, Roomers start up about Dice Control, a few serious groups take on the task. Meanwhile enter the Dominator, his reputation is growing. Roomers are flying wildly and people are feverishly trying to get in on this. No one is really sure if this works, for that reason, no one wants to let everyone in on this, let alone alert the casinos.
A few AP's buy craps tables to see if this can be done. While finding it difficult at best for actual DC, people realize the mailers are incredible if done right. Casinos smarten up a bit and Mailers start to fade. A few of the REAL AP's get involved with a few popular, so called DC. A few smart guys, guys who may not even believe in DC, realize there is a golden opportunity in keeping the myth alive. There is way more money in selling classes then what they can make at craps. They start selling classes for thousands a pop. Breaking Vegas comes out with a show on DC. DC explodes, the cost per class comes down and the money starts flowing in.
It would be hard for anyone who sold classes, books or had free-rolls with backers to ever admit they don't believe it was ever possible. Now they just say the conditions have changed or say how hard it is to be successful now.
Quote: AxelWolf***BETTER YET****
just take Soopoo up on his challenge [or forever be suspect in my book]
Quote: CrapsGeniousIt sounds crazy but I'm telling you he rolls them like clockwork.
Thanks for the reply. If you really do possess extraordinary abilities, I wish you the best in your efforts to extract maximum cash from the evil casinos. If you don't believe casinos are evil, just read any three posts from EvenBob, and he's sure to talk about it at least twice.
(It sounds crazy, but I'm telling you he mentions it like clockwork.)
Quote: michael99000Even as recently as this morning, we still don't have those .
Yes but I hear that big things are on the horizon for this afternoon.
Yes however I have nothing to gain by doing so. Also a few people I like might be affected.Quote: FrankScobleteAxelWolf, you have an interesting thesis. Can you prove it?
If I thought anyone may of found that interesting, I would of added more detail and a better time line.
To be clear, I didn't have you in mind when I said that.
I know a few people who honestly believed in DI and made money doing it. Was it luck? Was it possible? I don't know if they even know the answer.
I would guess his thesis would have better proof than the existence of DI will.Quote: FrankScobleteAxelWolf, you have an interesting thesis. Can you prove it?
Quote: FrankScobleteAxelWolf, you have an interesting thesis. Can you prove it?
No one who says they can do it wants to prove dice control or influence yet we ask someone else to prove something.
I like AxelWolf's writing. AxelWolf makes a great case with sundry reasons why a whole assortment of things happened in dice control. But it takes many different explanations for why dice controllers believe it; why casino bosses believe it; why astute writers and otherwise bright AP players believe it and so on. These sundry reasons are interesting. However, there is a simpler solution --- as in the simplest solution that answers all the questions is probably the correct solution --- and that is this: Dice control is real.
Yes, some people have been banned who are not dice controllers (I know a bunch of non-card counting players who were thrown out of Barbary Coast in the good old days). Some (perhaps many) people claim to have the skill and actually don't. Still casinos know when they are losing money over time to the same individual(s) and they will take action.
Are some of the dice control "gurus" unscrupulous? I'd say yes. Many of them sell "trend betting" systems and other gambling systems that are totally unable to get an edge over the house. I'd be leary of these people.
As I mentioned in my last post, as for me I have been tested with SmartCraps and I have had astute gambling writers with good pedigrees play at the same tables with me and a few travel with me around the country seeing long-term results. Even had some at the tables when I was bounced out of casinos.
I know it really doesn't matter on message boards whether I say this or that --- or you say this or that. The majority who believe will continue to believe and the majority of those who don't believe will continue to don't believe.
I actually prefer that most players don't believe it.
Quote: FrankScobleteI'll add this this morning:
I like AxelWolf's writing. AxelWolf makes a great case with sundry reasons why a whole assortment of things happened in dice control. But it takes many different explanations for why dice controllers believe it; why casino bosses believe it; why astute writers and otherwise bright AP players believe it and so on. These sundry reasons are interesting. However, there is a simpler solution --- as in the simplest solution that answers all the questions is probably the correct solution --- and that is this: Dice control is real.
Yes, some people have been banned who are not dice controllers (I know a bunch of non-card counting players who were thrown out of Barbary Coast in the good old days). Some (perhaps many) people claim to have the skill and actually don't. Still casinos know when they are losing money over time to the same individual(s) and they will take action.
Are some of the dice control "gurus" unscrupulous? I'd say yes. Many of them sell "trend betting" systems and other gambling systems that are totally unable to get an edge over the house. I'd be leary of these people.
As I mentioned in my last post, as for me I have been tested with SmartCraps and I have had astute gambling writers with good pedigrees play at the same tables with me and a few travel with me around the country seeing long-term results. Even had some at the tables when I was bounced out of casinos.
I know it really doesn't matter on message boards whether I say this or that --- or you say this or that. The majority who believe will continue to believe and the majority of those who don't believe will continue to don't believe.
I actually prefer that most players don't believe it.
Seeing is believing. I once debated on here about the dark players losing their shirts, but now I see the picture on dark players because I "see" them play. Same with DI's, you have to see a wide majority of them play to realize they make numbers and they make up much of what was lost to "Random" shooters.
You got to see it.
Well thank you.Quote: FrankScobleteI'll add this this morning:
I like AxelWolf's writing. AxelWolf makes a great case with sundry reasons why a whole assortment of things happened in dice control. But it takes many different explanations for why dice controllers believe it; why casino bosses believe it; why astute writers and otherwise bright AP players believe it and so on. These sundry reasons are interesting. However, there is a simpler solution --- as in the simplest solution that answers all the questions is probably the correct solution --- and that is this: Dice control is real.
Yes, some people have been banned who are not dice controllers (I know a bunch of non-card counting players who were thrown out of Barbary Coast in the good old days). Some (perhaps many) people claim to have the skill and actually don't. Still casinos know when they are losing money over time to the same individual(s) and they will take action.
Are some of the dice control "gurus" unscrupulous? I'd say yes. Many of them sell "trend betting" systems and other gambling systems that are totally unable to get an edge over the house. I'd be leary of these people.
As I mentioned in my last post, as for me I have been tested with SmartCraps and I have had astute gambling writers with good pedigrees play at the same tables with me and a few travel with me around the country seeing long-term results. Even had some at the tables when I was bounced out of casinos.
I know it really doesn't matter on message boards whether I say this or that --- or you say this or that. The majority who believe will continue to believe and the majority of those who don't believe will continue to don't believe.
I actually prefer that most players don't believe it.
You would like us(non believers) to believe DI is real, but only on faith because as we all know DI cant be proven. So then we all must go on your word and just keep an open mind. We must have just ounce of faith or small belief its possible. I get that, and its fair.
(Guys like CG I can't even dream of taking seriously)
Now we have you, someone with much better reputation, some reputable guys will back you up, as far as what they have seen from you. Great, ok... lets say we all believe in YOU since you have some credibility. We(non believers) should at least be willing to give a " Ok there is a possibility that you can do this" Right? Since that would only be fair. Now I ask you to be fair, and think/believe there is a small possibility you are just having some incredible luck/variance. If you are not willing to give us that, how can we give you even a small ounce of belief?
I would like someone like you to roll 30 or 40 rolls record them pick out what you think is the best possible roll. Slow it down, then break it down and explain whats going on and how you feel there is any DI going on.
I get everything until they hit the felt. After that you lose me. I'm not a 100% lots cause. I gave it a shot at the beginning. I admit it was not for long mainly due to better opportunities and a very skeptical view. I had to see it for myself in fear of missing out on something that could have been incredible.
As for belief, I guess it really doesn't matter. You can look at slow motion shots on the Internet of my throw --- good throws and bad throws. I would also recommend you read my book "Cutting Edge Craps" which explains exactly what dice do when they land --- they do a lot more than most players tend to think --- and study the idea of "correspondence" and the "V" shape landings. Also how the back wall isn't the complete dragon everyone supposes it is.
(I will happily mail you the DVD Golden Touch craps did --- which sells for $299 --- for free BUT, come on, you have to read "Cutting Edge Craps" so you'll get an idea of what you're watching. There are 200 unedited rolls on that DVD, some in slow motion.)
The other problem some have with dice control is the thought that each and every throw is controlled. Not so. There are plenty of random throws thoughout and as Superrick writes scathingly there is some "fiction writer" who claim he averages 20+ rolls per hand and has an SRR of 1:28. (I am happy to say I am not the fiction writer that Superrick is referring to as I am two years into a novel which is really, really awful.)
As you probably know, I am retired from teaching classes in dice control and from the whole dice control scene. My 130 trips per year to casinos has been cut severely so that I can see the country and the world (something I failed to do all these years). In the past 16 months I've been to Alaska, Hawaii, Japan, Baltimore, Boston, New Hampshire, Vermont, Philadelphia, Chicago, Vancouver, Miami and Washington DC.
My real thrill right now is this: Jerry "Stickman" and I are hitting every baseball park in America over the next couple of years. I have a report on my web site as to which parks we've been to already and what they (and their food) are like.
After over a quarter century of being deeply involved in the casino world, I'm slowing down. But I am speeding up other aspects of my life.
Quote: FrankScobleteAfter over a quarter century of being deeply involved in the casino world, I'm slowing down. But I am speeding up other aspects of my life.
Good for you. And of course keep posting. I enjoy your contributions, gambling-related or not :)
Superrick is a guy that knows an awful lot about this game as i know you do. He is not
against taking classes, or trying to develope a good throw or several throws from
different positions on the table.
He just does not want players to believe some of the crap about dice control and
the claims that lead many to lose an awful lot at the table.
I have taken your classes and i know you feel the same way. I also know you have
not made any of those claims in your classes.
This is just my opinion, but i feel the two of your have more in common than it
would appear.
I have learned alot from both of you.
Dicesetter
Quote: AxelWolfYou would like us(non believers) to believe DI is real, but only on faith because as we all know DI cant be proven.
Why does everyone say this? Of course it can be proven.
All you need is a real craps table, real dice, enough time to make 10,000 rolls, and someone keeping records to settle the question one way or the other. Let the shooter shoot at their own pace, take breaks whenever needed, and this could be settled in a week or two (with someone competent handling the stick, 4 to 6 rolls/minute should be reasonable, which is 30 - 40 hours of shooting). I'm sure that enough money could be wagered at high enough odds to make it worth 2 weeks (or even a month or two) of the shooter's time, if he has faith in his abilities.
Someone claiming to be able to shoot fewer than 1567 7's in 10,000 rolls should easily be able to get 10-1 odds from a lot of people (with random shooting he would have about a 0.4% chance of winning). If multiple shooters have faith in each other they could even team up (so one could shoot when the other got tired) and you could get through the 10k rolls with very little down time. They could multiply their money by 10, and, if they happen to win, a lot of people will think it was just luck (they hit their 1-in-250 shot or whatever) which would probably allow them to do it again and multiply their money by 10 AGAIN.
Quote: FrankScobletGood points. The SRR would take 10K (and perhaps more) to establish control. SmartCraps can establish on-axis control in far fewer rolls. That is the superior measurement.
So what is your SRR there Frank?
No matter what it is doesn't matter when you come right down to it, because it's just a sales tool. If you had a so-called SRR of 10 it still wouldn't stop those Short Rolls or the PSO's If it did matter all so-called DI's would be winners and we already know that is not true.
All a so-called SRR does is give a false sense of security. Your SRR is constantly changing, and what you do at home has nothing to do with what you can do in a casino. All DI's like everybody else will have good rolls and bad rolls. Some days the so-called random rollers can't do anything wrong. How do you explain that? Was it because they were set the dice certainly way, even when they would just pick them up shaking and throw them?
Where a big misconception comes into play is nobody tracks the rolls of these so-called random rollers. They never go around bragging that they just had a 50 roll, only so-called DI do that! As you yourself even said Frank you can go for long periods of time without ever winning! So how do you explain that, if your SRR is a 10?
Can you see by any chance where I'm going with this? I've seen some of the best DI's in the country have nothing but bad rolls when they were shooting. When that happens they didn't turn to me and say my SRR is not working today.
Trying to prove that there are DI's is like trying to prove that there are two snowflakes identical on any given day that it's snowing! I have yet to see a so-called DI announced to the table that he had a SRR of 10 and the first number he was going to roll was a 10. If he did that he would get laughed off the table when the 7 showed!
Casinos really have nothing to worry about with the so-called DI's, what they really have to worry about is all the fiction that is written about what so-called DI's can do. The reason for that is they have done everything possible with countermeasures, that now days they don't get the rolls per hour they need to make money!
Even with their experts on the game of craps that work for them, they still charge straight ahead with the stupid things they do to try to put a stop to anybody that sets the dice!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=me5vgKkFUXA
I just loved when he said there might be 3 or 4 DI's in the country. If you had everybody that thought of themselves as a DI in a casino all shooting at the same time on the different tables it would look like any other casino in the world, on some tables you would have some winners and on others you would have losers, the one thing you wouldn't have is everybody winning it just wouldn't happen. One of the things that I've noticed over the years is that some shooters just can't perform under the watchful eye of the suits and boxman.
The other thing that I noticed is once one of the so-called DI's has a short roll or a PSO the very next shooter will do the same thing. Maybe it's a hero syndrome, where their hero fails to perform, and they do the same thing. They can't handle the psychological part of the game and hold up when the pressure is on.
SUPERRICK: So what is your SRR there Frank? No matter what it is doesn't matter when you come right down to it, because it's just a sales tool. If you had a so-called SRR of 10 it still wouldn't stop those Short Rolls or the PSO's If it did matter all so-called DI's would be winners and we already know that is not true.
FRANK: I don’t have any idea what my SRR is. My thrust is on-axis control and for that I am quite good as those many players who have seen me at the tables more than a couple of times can attest or for those players who have practiced with me and tested me with SmartCraps. I don’t remember ever saying anything about my SRR in the 10 years I taught classes.
Short rolls? Yes, many. Point-seven-outs? Of course. If someone is a dice controller (that means really having the skill and betting correctly) he should be ahead over a decent period of time. I know plenty who are. I have been doing it for more than 25 years. I’d say that is a sufficiently long time considering I would play around 130 days per year with, say, four turns of the dice each session with three or four sessions a day. That’s a pretty big sample.
SUPERRICK: All a so-called SRR does is give a false sense of security. Your SRR is constantly changing, and what you do at home has nothing to do with what you can do in a casino. All DI's like everybody else will have good rolls and bad rolls. Some days the so-called random rollers can't do anything wrong. How do you explain that? Was it because they were set the dice certainly way, even when they would just pick them up shaking and throw them?
FRANK: Yes, the SRR is much like a batting average. It will go up and down. In the beginning casino play will be more difficult than practicing at home --- that is a strong caution for new dice controllers. I agree that random rollers can have great days. Still since they are random rollers there is no predictive factor with their rolls. They could put the dice in their mouths and spit them out and have a good roll. Other than the disgustingness of such a technique, I would pass such shooters by. For a random roller, setting the dice, not setting the dice, has no meaning. It is best to not bet on them at all or bet a small amount after the 5-Count.
SUPERRICK: Where a big misconception comes into play is nobody tracks the rolls of these so-called random rollers. They never go around bragging that they just had a 50 roll, only so-called DI do that! As you yourself even said Frank you can go for long periods of time without ever winning! So how do you explain that, if your SRR is a 10?
FRANK: Random rollers will say things such as this, “I held the dice for a half hour” or some such. They don’t necessarily count rolls but they do take a stab at how much time passed. Counting rolls is a relatively new thing.
I assume you played sports. Even the best players will have good and bad streaks. The difference between a random roller and a dice controller is not the fact of a streak but how those streaks end up over a decent period of time. The random rollers will have ups and downs but the line will gradually go down (meaning overall losses over time); while the dice controllers’ line will be go up.
SUPERRICK: Can you see by any chance where I'm going with this? I've seen some of the best DI's in the country have nothing but bad rolls when they were shooting. When that happens they didn't turn to me and say my SRR is not working today.
Trying to prove that there are DI's is like trying to prove that there are two snowflakes identical on any given day that it's snowing! I have yet to see a so-called DI announced to the table that he had a SRR of 10 and the first number he was going to roll was a 10. If he did that he would get laughed off the table when the 7 showed!
FRANK: In May of 2015 my craps book specifically about dice control will be published. It will answer this line of reasoning.
SUPERRICK: Casinos really have nothing to worry about with the so-called DI's, what they really have to worry about is all the fiction that is written about what so-called DI's can do. The reason for that is they have done everything possible with countermeasures, that now days they don't get the rolls per hour they need to make money!
Even with their experts on the game of craps that work for them, they still charge straight ahead with the stupid things they do to try to put a stop to anybody that sets the dice!
FRANK: Setting the dice is not dice control. It is merely one of many elements.
SUPERRICK:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=me5vgKkFUXA
I just loved when he said there might be 3 or 4 DI's in the country. If you had everybody that thought of themselves as a DI in a casino all shooting at the same time on the different tables it would look like any other casino in the world, on some tables you would have some winners and on others you would have losers, the one thing you wouldn't have is everybody winning it just wouldn't happen. One of the things that I've noticed over the years is that some shooters just can't perform under the watchful eye of the suits and boxman.
FRANK: I totally agree that there aren’t enough dice controllers to make much of a dent in a casino’s bottom line and those dice controllers who do have large bankrolls are banned just as card counters are banned. Since I’ve been there I can say casinos know how to protect themselves against big, ongoing losses to advantage players.
At Bally’s in Vegas 17 of us were banned at the same time. We were playing at two different tables and both tables were hammering the casino. There were some big bettors at each table. One of our guys went nose to nose with the pit boss when the announcement was made that we wouldn’t be allowed to play at Bally’s anymore. I’d say there were a half-dozen suits involved and what seemed like an army of security men.
SUPERRICK: The other thing that I noticed is once one of the so-called DI's has a short roll or a PSO the very next shooter will do the same thing. Maybe it's a hero syndrome, where their hero fails to perform, and they do the same thing. They can't handle the psychological part of the game and hold up when the pressure is on.
FRANK: Even the greatest baseball teams in history do not score runs in the overwhelming majority innings played. No difference with dice controllers. I don’t think your idea is correct. It’s just the way of competition.
Quote: FrankScobleteI'll go point by point:
SUPERRICK: So what is your SRR there Frank? No matter what it is doesn't matter when you come right down to it, because it's just a sales tool. If you had a so-called SRR of 10 it still wouldn't stop those Short Rolls or the PSO's If it did matter all so-called DI's would be winners and we already know that is not true.
FRANK: I don’t have any idea what my SRR is. My thrust is on-axis control and for that I am quite good as those many players who have seen me at the tables more than a couple of times can attest or for those players who have practiced with me and tested me with SmartCraps. I don’t remember ever saying anything about my SRR in the 10 years I taught classes.
Short rolls? Yes, many. Point-seven-outs? Of course. If someone is a dice controller (that means really having the skill and betting correctly) he should be ahead over a decent period of time. I know plenty who are. I have been doing it for more than 25 years. I’d say that is a sufficiently long time considering I would play around 130 days per year with, say, four turns of the dice each session with three or four sessions a day. That’s a pretty big sample.
SUPERRICK: All a so-called SRR does is give a false sense of security. Your SRR is constantly changing, and what you do at home has nothing to do with what you can do in a casino. All DI's like everybody else will have good rolls and bad rolls. Some days the so-called random rollers can't do anything wrong. How do you explain that? Was it because they were set the dice certainly way, even when they would just pick them up shaking and throw them?
FRANK: Yes, the SRR is much like a batting average. It will go up and down. In the beginning casino play will be more difficult than practicing at home --- that is a strong caution for new dice controllers. I agree that random rollers can have great days. Still since they are random rollers there is no predictive factor with their rolls. They could put the dice in their mouths and spit them out and have a good roll. Other than the disgustingness of such a technique, I would pass such shooters by. For a random roller, setting the dice, not setting the dice, has no meaning. It is best to not bet on them at all or bet a small amount after the 5-Count.
SUPERRICK: Where a big misconception comes into play is nobody tracks the rolls of these so-called random rollers. They never go around bragging that they just had a 50 roll, only so-called DI do that! As you yourself even said Frank you can go for long periods of time without ever winning! So how do you explain that, if your SRR is a 10?
FRANK: Random rollers will say things such as this, “I held the dice for a half hour” or some such. They don’t necessarily count rolls but they do take a stab at how much time passed. Counting rolls is a relatively new thing.
I assume you played sports. Even the best players will have good and bad streaks. The difference between a random roller and a dice controller is not the fact of a streak but how those streaks end up over a decent period of time. The random rollers will have ups and downs but the line will gradually go down (meaning overall losses over time); while the dice controllers’ line will be go up.
SUPERRICK: Can you see by any chance where I'm going with this? I've seen some of the best DI's in the country have nothing but bad rolls when they were shooting. When that happens they didn't turn to me and say my SRR is not working today.
Trying to prove that there are DI's is like trying to prove that there are two snowflakes identical on any given day that it's snowing! I have yet to see a so-called DI announced to the table that he had a SRR of 10 and the first number he was going to roll was a 10. If he did that he would get laughed off the table when the 7 showed!
FRANK: In May of 2015 my craps book specifically about dice control will be published. It will answer this line of reasoning.
SUPERRICK: Casinos really have nothing to worry about with the so-called DI's, what they really have to worry about is all the fiction that is written about what so-called DI's can do. The reason for that is they have done everything possible with countermeasures, that now days they don't get the rolls per hour they need to make money!
Even with their experts on the game of craps that work for them, they still charge straight ahead with the stupid things they do to try to put a stop to anybody that sets the dice!
FRANK: Setting the dice is not dice control. It is merely one of many elements.
SUPERRICK:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=me5vgKkFUXA
I just loved when he said there might be 3 or 4 DI's in the country. If you had everybody that thought of themselves as a DI in a casino all shooting at the same time on the different tables it would look like any other casino in the world, on some tables you would have some winners and on others you would have losers, the one thing you wouldn't have is everybody winning it just wouldn't happen. One of the things that I've noticed over the years is that some shooters just can't perform under the watchful eye of the suits and boxman.
FRANK: I totally agree that there aren’t enough dice controllers to make much of a dent in a casino’s bottom line and those dice controllers who do have large bankrolls are banned just as card counters are banned. Since I’ve been there I can say casinos know how to protect themselves against big, ongoing losses to advantage players.
At Bally’s in Vegas 17 of us were banned at the same time. We were playing at two different tables and both tables were hammering the casino. There were some big bettors at each table. One of our guys went nose to nose with the pit boss when the announcement was made that we wouldn’t be allowed to play at Bally’s anymore. I’d say there were a half-dozen suits involved and what seemed like an army of security men.
SUPERRICK: The other thing that I noticed is once one of the so-called DI's has a short roll or a PSO the very next shooter will do the same thing. Maybe it's a hero syndrome, where their hero fails to perform, and they do the same thing. They can't handle the psychological part of the game and hold up when the pressure is on.
FRANK: Even the greatest baseball teams in history do not score runs in the overwhelming majority innings played. No difference with dice controllers. I don’t think your idea is correct. It’s just the way of competition.
Bring those 17 guys to Canada casino's, they won't get banned here where I play.
There is no such thing as a "hero" player.
We all PSO, there is no getting around it, but if you do the math, you will pull out ahead and support your own.
If everyone started with the same bank roll of $300.00 and play their "primary" numbers (2-3 numbers) staring with the minimum. there is no way for a casino to catch up no matter how many PSO's.
Quote: FrankScoblete: I totally agree that there aren’t enough dice controllers to make much of a dent in a casino’s bottom line and those dice controllers who do have large bankrolls are banned just as card counters are banned. Since I’ve been there I can say casinos know how to protect themselves against big, ongoing losses to advantage players.
So Frank we both agree that casinos have nothing to worry about when they see someone setting the dice, and if they are any good at it. The casinos will simply banned them if they are winning too much, or to often, especially if they have a large bankroll.
Quote: FrankScoblete
SUPERRICK: Where a big misconception comes into play is nobody tracks the rolls of these so-called random rollers. They never go around bragging that they just had a 50 roll, only so-called DI do that! As you yourself even said Frank you can go for long periods of time without ever winning! So how do you explain that, if your SRR is a 10?
FRANK: Random rollers will say things such as this, “I held the dice for a half hour” or some such. They don’t necessarily count rolls but they do take a stab at how much time passed. Counting rolls is a relatively new thing.
Come on now Frank, you know as well as I do that the so-called random rollers have no websites or books that will publish their names and the great rolls that they had. There is only two places that I know of that will do that, and that is the Fremont Casino with their wall of fame, and the Main Street Station with it's Golden Arm Wall of Fame, which there was 214 shooters that had plaques on that wall. Anyone who holds the dice for at least one full hour at the craps table gets a plaque the wall. Where as the Fremont, Will give you a Sharpshooter jacket and posting on their wall of fame after 60 rolls, if you have a players card, and now I think you need a $5 passline bet, I could be wrong on this one, because I think it's up to the discretion of the boxman that is doing the roll count!
http://www.gamblerdan.com/blog25/post/2012/09/28/Golden-Arm-Wall-Of-Fame.aspx
Quote: FrankScoblete
SUPERRICK: All a so-called SRR does is give a false sense of security. Your SRR is constantly changing, and what you do at home has nothing to do with what you can do in a casino. All DI's like everybody else will have good rolls and bad rolls. Some days the so-called random rollers can't do anything wrong. How do you explain that? Was it because they were set the dice certainly way, even when they would just pick them up shaking and throw them?
FRANK: Yes, the SRR is much like a batting average. It will go up and down. In the beginning casino play will be more difficult than practicing at home --- that is a strong caution for new dice controllers. I agree that random rollers can have great days. Still since they are random rollers there is no predictive factor with their rolls. They could put the dice in their mouths and spit them out and have a good roll. Other than the disgustingness of such a technique, I would pass such shooters by. For a random roller, setting the dice, not setting the dice, has no meaning. It is best to not bet on them at all or bet a small amount after the 5-Count.
Frank,.. Just because someone has taken the time to come up with a SRR it still doesn't mean a thing. You know all too well, what you do in the casino is not like practice at home, and things can and do go terribly wrong. There is no way to distinguish between a random roller that sets the dice or a DI, unless you personally know them. So with that said, do you use a five count on every shooter? Because anyone of your students could not tell if I was a DI in the first few rolls of the dice!
Most would never even bet on me, because I don't use the same shot that they were taught. I know of a few DI's that do not use a GTC or PARR type of shot when they are shooting.
I seen plenty of GTC and PARR students stand there and let fifty rolls go by, only because they were not taught that type of shot.
Quote: FrankScoblete
FRANK: I totally agree that there aren’t enough dice controllers to make much of a dent in a casino’s bottom line and those dice controllers who do have large bankrolls are banned just as card counters are banned. Since I’ve been there I can say casinos know how to protect themselves against big, ongoing losses to advantage players.
At Bally’s in Vegas 17 of us were banned at the same time. We were playing at two different tables and both tables were hammering the casino. There were some big bettors at each table. One of our guys went nose to nose with the pit boss when the announcement was made that we wouldn’t be allowed to play at Bally’s anymore. I’d say there were a half-dozen suits involved and what seemed like an army of security men.
Frank, there are many reason for getting banned at a casino, and walking in with 17 guys and taking over there tables is one of them, casinos are paranoid, with all the fiction that has been written about DI's taken hundreds of thousands of dollars on the craps table year.
What the hell did you expect to happen, when you have seventh guys all doing the same thing and playing musical shooters when one of them seventh out? You seem to use being banned as a badge of honor, I would hate to tell you what I think of it! Yes, I know that you got banned from a whole state, but didn't that have to do with you teaching, and not have a license to do so in that state? The story I got was the casinos didn't want you teaching in that state and told you to take your school else where! Banning you from shooting was just away of trying to keep you out of their casinos and bringing in all of your students.
Quote: FrankScoblete
SUPERRICK: The other thing that I noticed is once one of the so-called DI's has a short roll or a PSO the very next shooter will do the same thing. Maybe it's a hero syndrome, where their hero fails to perform, and they do the same thing. They can't handle the psychological part of the game and hold up when the pressure is on.
FRANK: Even the greatest baseball teams in history do not score runs in the overwhelming majority innings played. No difference with dice controllers. I don’t think your idea is correct. It’s just the way of competition.
So Frank , what you are really saying is that just because you have dice controllers on the table they may not win? It’s just the way of competition?
Mississippi was two things.
The first was that they did not want us to teach in the state. The assistant to the Attorney General went after us twice. The first time we beat them on a "first amendment" defense. The second time, years later, we decided to leave the state and do our seminars in Tennessee because our lawyer said Mississippi would just keep coming up with ideas that would cost us money to defend ourselves even though we would win every case. They also would not hesitate to arrest us even if they had no viable charges.
The second Mississippi thing had to do with our shooting at dice and card counting at blackjack. We didn't count cards in all the casinos because they didn't all have good games. The dice control was done in most of the casinos. The casinos were quite clear. For example, the Grand (now Harrah's) banned us from both games and told us not to come back to their tables. Kind of a semi-trespassing boot. Fitzgerald's was nasty about it and it was also specified for both games with the reading of the trespass act and being taken out by security guards. Horseshoe was craps as was Gold Strike; Sam's Town, dice control. And so on and on. We were told at one casino that this banning is for the whole state. The bottom line was simple: "Stay out of Mississippi."
In the above mix I was fired from a radio show that I had done for 10 years in Memphis that had the casinos as the major advertisers. This came the very day I arrived home after the bannings. The casinos flexed their muscles.
I have the entire tale in a new craps book that will be out in May of 2015.
Yes, dice controllers can lose. I have no idea why anyone would think differently. The SRR is an important tool. Why would you go into the casino and play craps if you didn't have an edge? And the only way to establish that you have some control is to test yourself. Yes, the next step, on-axis control is far tougher to achieve than merely avoiding the seven.
As for standing at the table and not betting on a shooter who HAS HAD a hot roll up to that time, such an act is not stupid. Let us say Pat DeMauro comes to the table. As you know she had the longest roll in history --- but she is a random roller. Do you bet on her? I don't. There is no predictability in her throw. From any point in the game the outlook for her roll is strictly random with the casino having an edge on every bet. You would be throwing your money away. (If she made it past the 5-Count and I was at that table I would put a small Come bet up with odds and that would be that. One small bet so it appears that I am playing. But if I could avoid betting on her at all I would not bet on her at all.)
Anyway I sometimes don't really know what the point is that you are making Superrick. Is there such a thing as dice control? Or isn't there?
I have a question for Frank and Superrick.
I have played craps now for almost 40 years, much of that poorly i guess, but
played it non the less.
I could be wrong here but i think i understand where they both are coming
from and i have found since being on a couple of these boards, there is more
division than i thought there would be, since we are all trying to accomplish the
same thing.
At any rate i do have a question about dice control, i have asked this a couple of times
in other places and i cant get an answer. I may not get one here....
When a person starts to work on a toss, GTC or Parr, the first things that seems to happen
is the toss looks better and you seem to have control on 1 of the dice, but that i mean finishes
on the axis it started on) now i dont mean it stayed on axis the entire roll. When that happens
you get a few long rolls, i know i had many in 30-50 range and 5 over 50 . i thought this was
good and worked harder. as my roll improved i got worse in terms of long rolls and began having
longer and longer losing streaks.
My recent trip i had 17 hands in a row over 3 days were i got paid a total of $7 on a hit on
a place bet of 9.
All the first 35 years that i played craps i never experienced the very good rolls i have had the
past 5 years, but also did not experience the terrible losing streaks where no matter what set
i used it is 4/3 3/4 or 5/2 2/5. Now when i say terrible losing streaks i dont mean bad loses in
terms of money, wont dig a hole like that. But it is more to the understanding of what is possible and
what makes sense... As Frank said you could spit the dice out and have a good roll, and
conversely, you could spit the dice out and not go 17 hands and make $7.
I have had a couple of other streaks like that where i cant get past 2 rolls.
So my question is simple, if you get good enough that your roll has some influence on it
but not enough to have all rolls perfect can you actually have worse results that a random
thrower would have consistantly enough that you just cant play any longer.
dicesetter
There it is, i did not think i would get an answer,i never have before
and it is a simple question, if you practice your rolls hundreds and hundreds of
hours canyou ever be random again.
I have never seen any person that is associated with dice control contend
that it is possible to have worse results than a radom player would have.
I still think it is a question that deserves to be answered.
dicesetter
For some odd reason every time there is a class in town here in Vegas to start with all the casinos know about it, and when they see every shooter doing the exact same thing, some of the casinos just get fed up and tell everybody leave.
Just because as you put it, the players descended on the tables dribs and drabs doesn't stop the casino from knowing what's happening!
Quote: FrankScobleteThe 17 at the two tables happened organically. Players didn't descend on the tables. Dribs and drabs.
Now as far as your Mississippi thing goes, there is a really big difference between get banned for your shooting and because the casinos didn't want you teaching in Mississippi!
With all the great fiction that has been written about the so-called DI, I can understand why a bunch of sweat joints wouldn't want you teaching a DI class in their backyard! Again let's get this straight, I'm not saying that you are the fiction writer, that I'm writing about, when ever I write about our great fiction writers!
One of the problems when you write that you got banned from a whole state is some how a few facts got left out of your story before now, when you told the whole story about getting banned from the casinos in Mississippi. I think that your latest version sheds a different light you getting banned.
I can't wait to read your new book if you have what really happened when some of these thing occurred. It sure would add a lot of credibility to what you write.
Quote: FrankScoblete
The second Mississippi thing had to do with our shooting at dice and card counting at blackjack. We didn't count cards in all the casinos because they didn't all have good games. The dice control was done in most of the casinos. The casinos were quite clear. For example, the Grand (now Harrah's) banned us from both games and told us not to come back to their tables. Kind of a semi-trespassing boot. Fitzgerald's was nasty about it and it was also specified for both games with the reading of the trespass act and being taken out by security guards. Horseshoe was craps as was Gold Strike; Sam's Town, dice control. And so on and on. We were told at one casino that this banning is for the whole state. The bottom line was simple: "Stay out of Mississippi."
In the above mix I was fired from a radio show that I had done for 10 years in Memphis that had the casinos as the major advertisers. This came the very day I arrived home after the bannings. The casinos flexed their muscles.
One of the things that I stress with a lot of the DI's I know, is don't rub it in stay out of the casinos that you just had a good win in, and don't go to the casinos with a bunch of so-called DI's. For some odd reason casinos do not like to see 10 guys all doing the same thing when they are playing. Specially when they know a craps school is in town! Sometimes they get a little testy, and run everybody off!
Quote: FrankScoblete
As for standing at the table and not betting on a shooter who HAS HAD a hot roll up to that time, such an act is not stupid. Let us say Pat DeMauro comes to the table. As you know she had the longest roll in history --- but she is a random roller. Do you bet on her? I don't.
Frank, I happen to be playing on a table when Pat DeMauro bought in here in Las Vegas. At the time I didn't realize who she was, she was as random as a shooter could be. Her dice were all over the place, she was hitting chips, the mirrors and sometimes bouncing the dice halfway back down the table when she was shooting. And yes, I was betting on her, and I didn't know who she was at the time. But there was something about her, maybe an air of confidence was what I saw in her.
Anyway, she went on a 45 roll And rolled three H 4's, four H 8's and four H 10's in that roll, all I could say was it was truly random, but needless to say I made money on her roll. After that roll she colored up and left, it wasn't until then that I found out who she was, as my buddy had recognized her and was talking to her before she started her roll, but never said anything to me until it was over!
The next day she showed up on the table again, and I lost $5 on her with her very short roll, she only shot that one time as was out of there. Just because someone had a great roll before doesn't mean that they will the next day. But with that said I still will have a bet out there on them, you just never know!
Quote: FrankScoblete
Anyway I sometimes don't really know what the point is that you are making Superrick. Is there such a thing as dice control? Or isn't there?
Frank you know as well as I do if your a so-called DI in everybody's mind you can't win all the time!
So the point I'm trying to make is there is an awful lot of fiction that is written about the so-called DI's.
There also is a lot that is left out of stories that let readers believe something else as to why some so-called DI's get banned from casinos!
Everybody that knows me calls me a DI, I spent way more time in the casinos than most players will spent in a lifetime. So I'm bond to get on some very good rolls when I'm playing craps, and because the casinos see me setting the dice I'm looked at very negatively by the suits and Boxmen, when ever I get on a roll.
So far, nobody has been able to answer your question about dice control, is it luck when a DI gets on a roll or is it skill, everybody has a different opinion. Before those famous words dice control or dice influencer was coined, if I was setting the dice, and was on a roll, everybody said I was just get lucky!
So my question to you is what changed? I consider every time that I get on roll, I just got lucky.
I don't think that anybody in their right mind that is called a DI would want to prove that there are DI's!
The one thing I know for certain, is that all of these fiction writers are doing everybody a great disservice, and that everyday the so-called random rollers are having great rolls just like the DI's, and when it comes right down to it, they have a lot more high outcome rolls! They have to, because they outnumber the DI's tens of thousands to one. The casinos should fear them more then anybody that sets the dice.
...
I know there are a couple of people on here that fancy themselves as a Di
try this and provide the results.
set the dice on hardway set with 5 on top and 4 facing back at you on each die
record 20 rolls and keep track of the outcome left die and right die
then record 20 rolls by just picking them up and throwing.. no control
do this a couple of times
How many times did the five appear on the top of either die in random vs control ?
How many times did you get the 4 on top?
I have my numbers on what i threw the past couple of days and have looked backed on
hundreds of rolls.
If we all report what we did i think that will show that control affect does not always indicate
a profitable roll. It is not necessary to report the actual left die and right numbers for each roll,
just the number of five as a primary hit and 4 as secondary
dicesetter
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterI have never seen any person that is associated with dice control contend
that it is possible to have worse results than a radom player would have.
I still think it is a question that deserves to be answered.
dicesetter
Of course you can. If you're rolling the dice in such a way that the Buy 4 bet has a player edge, then the Lay 4 bet necessarily has a stronger house edge than normal. If you don't know how you're affecting the dice distribution and you bet the wrong way, you'll absolutely do worse than normal.
And so will everyone else betting the same way. I posited that as an ethical question a while ago: if you control the dice such that other people lose faster while you win, is that ethical? The members here overwhelmingly had no problem with it:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/dice-setting/15388-is-dice-influencing-ethical/
Just the fact that even the so called DI's cant even agree on what is DI is very telling indeed. Big foot expert 1"Big Foot is dark brown" Big Foot expert 2"No way Big Foot is light brown"
Quote: dicesitter
So my question is simple, if you get good enough that your roll has some influence on it
but not enough to have all rolls perfect can you actually have worse results that a random
thrower would have consistantly enough that you just cant play any longer.
dicesetter
Yes you can be worse than random but if you have the ability to influence the dice, there will always be a way to take advantage of it. If someone is throwing too many 7's (again, assuming an influenced throw) all they would need to do is change the set or change the strategy, i.e. shoot from the don't.
The problem is, there can be a ton of variance over the short term, so it is very easy to second guess yourself and then you end up making changes when none are needed.
PM me if you want to talk further....I've got some other thoughts as well.
Thanks for the reply, i dont question whether or not you can influence the dice,
for me that is a given, my records show it and i am sure yours do as well.
For instance on the little drill i suggested i see a 40-50% variance between
a throw that is influenced to a random throw in terms of getting the
primary number result.
My point is that is not the same as making money.
My suggestion is that the better you get at influencing the dice, the closer you
are on a consistent basis to a 7. By this i mean lets look at the hardway set. Say
you set 5 5 on top , 4s back at you . If you throw the dice an average of 9
feet, they hit bounce and hit the aligator board and end up 5 5, we would all say
that is a perfect roll. 4 4 a perfect roll etc....... however i think we all agree we cant be
perfect on every roll, so we have to settle for pretty good. well in this case pretty
good may well be one die going 1/4 turn back and the other 1/4 turn forward and
you have a 7 every time.
a random roller would not have that, every roll is so different from the last that he or she
is no closer to a 3/4 4/3 or 2/5 5/2 than they are to a 1/5 or 4/1.
A say all this not to complain about dice control, i would not have exchanged the fun
and great rolls i had had over the past several years, but i say this because i think what
i say is true and i feel those involved should also admit the pit falls. What i have seen from
some quarters is that everytime you run into a problem with this, you are instructed to take
another class. I am not against a class, i have taken a number, but not everyone can afford
to take classes constantly.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitter
At any rate i do have a question about dice control, i have asked this a couple of times
in other places and i cant get an answer. I may not get one here....
When a person starts to work on a toss, GTC or Parr, the first things that seems to happen
is the toss looks better and you seem to have control on 1 of the dice, but that i mean finishes
on the axis it started on) now i dont mean it stayed on axis the entire roll. When that happens
you get a few long rolls, i know i had many in 30-50 range and 5 over 50 . i thought this was
good and worked harder. as my roll improved i got worse in terms of long rolls and began having
longer and longer losing streaks.
My recent trip i had 17 hands in a row over 3 days were i got paid a total of $7 on a hit on
a place bet of 9.
I get this question all the time from different DI's and so-called DI's!
Here's what I contribute most so-called DI's problems to! To start with most do not get the table time they need so they can handle the psychological aspect of the game. I once had so many PSO's in a row, for the one session I was playing. All the dealers were telling me I should quit, even the boxperson told me I should leave. My answer to them was it no big deal, things like this will happen!
I was only betting the pass line and nothing else, trying to get pass all the PSO's, one of my DI buddies was standing the table just shaking his head, telling me to forget about it, that I couldn't win that day.
As I joked with the dealers telling them my luck had to change, I finally found a set that would work. I went on to making a profit for the day, I never sweat a seven-out, it's just part of the game.
As long as you have not hit your loss limit and you can keep a cool head and evaluate what is happening you can get lucky and still come out ahead. Just watch some so-called DI's when they pick up the dice their hands are shaking if they lost any of their buy-in. That comes from a lack of table time , and not being psychologically strong!
The other thing that happens with GTC or Parr type shooters, is they were only taught one shot. If somebody puts chips in their way they freak out, most can only shoot from stick right one or stick left one, everything has to be just perfect for them to get on any rolls. They also have a problem with wanting to be in the good old boys club. You will very seldom see them at the tables at the tables, with out three or four of their members of the good old boys club.
When things start to go bad, they can't evaluate what is happening with the dice and their shooting. It's very unfortunate that those two school never really taught anything about problem solving for their students when things are not working. Just watch GTC or Parr type shooter, when they start throwing sevens, they just keep doing the same exact thing, because that is all they know how to do!
Quote: dicesitter
So my question is simple, if you get good enough that your roll has some influence on it
but not enough to have all rolls perfect can you actually have worse results that a random
thrower would have consistantly enough that you just cant play any longer.
To start with nobody has all perfect rolls unless you're a great fiction writer. I cannot win all the time and there are plenty of times, were every damn random rollers will have better rolls then I'm having. But I learned years ago before they coined those famous words Dice Controller or Dice Influencer, that I could bet on those so-called random rollers, they were winning before those famous words were coined. So you can still make money on them, to get you through you bad rolls. But if you stand there and only bet on those sixes and eights when you're not throwing them because you have only been taught one way of shooting with one or two dice sets, you have a major problem. Most likely you will end up like so many other so-called DI's, licking your wounds and just given up playing craps!
Most so-called DI's have lived on a diet of nothing but BS, that our great fiction writers have fed them over the years, so they don't know what to do when they are having problems. Just go on some of these DI boards and see what happens when someone is telling everybody that they are losing, what you will see is a bunch of patting them on the back and that's about it. They live in a very delusional world, were they think they can win hundreds of thousands of dollars a year, because these fiction writers are telling everybody that's what they take all the tables every year! Funny I have never ran into one of them and I think I know some of the best DI's in this country!
No real DI, is playing for comps, just like the card counters you wouldn't want the casinos to know who you were! So all the free concerts, and great food and, comp trips to Macau is just BS! Casinos are business to make money, if you're winning all the time they cut your comps out, again if you don't believe me read “Whale Hunt in the Desert: Secrets of a Vegas Superhost”.
http://www.amazon.com/Whale-Hunt-Desert-Secrets-Superhost/dp/0929712897
Most so-called DI's end up giving up playing craps, when they find out they can not win, and were sold BS!
Quote: dicesitter
A say all this not to complain about dice control, i would not have exchanged the fun
and great rolls i had had over the past several years, but i say this because i think what
i say is true and i feel those involved should also admit the pit falls. What i have seen from
some quarters is that everytime you run into a problem with this, you are instructed to take
another class. I am not against a class, i have taken a number, but not everyone can afford
to takes classes constantly.
Some of these schools want their students to keep coming back for refresher courses, that's their business model, pretty sad if you asked me! Some of them also charge hookup fees to go to the tables with their instructors in the hopes of winning money. Another problem, is most so-called DI's do not have anybody around them that can tell them what they are doing wrong, so they feel the need to keep going back for those refresher courses!
...
In my short time at the craps table, I've seen one guy that *might* have been a DI. I've mentioned this before in other threads. I was at the $3 table at the Fremont - right after lunch on a Tuesday. The table was pretty full and when I walked up there was a shooter at the other end of the table that was meticulous about his set and toss. I waited for him to hit a point, bought in and put down a $5 DP bet. The guy next to me pointed out that the shooter had gone nearly 30 rolls without throwing a seven (they had an LED roll counter on the table). That shooter made at least four more points while I played (losing my DP+odds every time) and when he finally lost the dice the counter was at 46. This guy was obviously trying to influence the dice, and in that instance it would be pretty easy to argue that he was pretty successful at it. He rolled a hell of a lot of 6's and 8's. I don't recall what he was betting.
I've seen other folks taking care to set the dice, but none that seemed to put so much care into their toss as this man did.
I've also seen a young girl's virgin effort at the table result in a 4 point firebet and at least three Come Out wins - I'd guess that young girl threw the dice 30+ times in her first time at a craps table. She was absolutely not trying to influence the dice, but her results were certainly better than average.
I am continually amused by CrapsGenious. His "random shooters suck" comment really made me chuckle. Most craps players are not even trying to influence the dice. They're just picking them up and tossing them down the table with their fingers crossed.
For every ten people that are trying to influence the dice, I'd be shocked if one of them were actually delivering the influence they intend.
Serious question: What does the DI do when they don't have the dice? Make a table minimum Pass or DP wager and hope they get the dice back quickly so they can start betting like crazy people and cashing in on their awesome dice skills?
Quote: TerribleTomSerious question: What does the DI do when they don't have the dice? Make a table minimum Pass or DP wager and hope they get the dice back quickly so they can start betting like crazy people and cashing in on their awesome dice skills?
The same thing counters do in a negative count: take "phone calls", use the restroom, go to a new casino, switch tables, etc.
Quote: TerribleTomIn my short time at the craps table, I've seen one guy that *might* have been a DI. I've mentioned this before in other threads. I was at the $3 table at the Fremont...
Serious question: What does the DI do when they don't have the dice? Make a table minimum Pass or DP wager and hope they get the dice back quickly so they can start betting like crazy people and cashing in on their awesome dice skills?
For starters, it's always amazed me that people who claim to have a meaningful advantage due to their craps play would bother with anything less than black chips. Let's suppose your edge was a whopping +10% on the pass + odds. Making $3 passline bets with odds would yield about $10/hour. What's the point?
And to answer the serious question, if a DI was good enough to actually win consistent money, they could afford to play at a reserved table with nobody else so the problem of other players would never happen. I saw a $500-chip bettor at Caesars with a reserved table so I figure $100 could get a reservation in a smaller place. That way every roll has the edge.
If I had even a 2% edge on the line, I could grow a bankroll to be able to afford either black or purple bets and that's plenty big enough to get a private table. And because it'd be just me, I could throw at least four times per minute, maybe more, generating over $500/hour with $100 bets.
Quote: MathExtremistFor starters, it's always amazed me that people who claim to have a meaningful advantage due to their craps play would bother with anything less than black chips. Let's suppose your edge was a whopping +10% on the pass + odds. Making $3 passline bets with odds would yield about $10/hour. What's the point?
And to answer the serious question, if a DI was good enough to actually win consistent money, they could afford to play at a reserved table with nobody else so the problem of other players would never happen. I saw a $500-chip bettor at Caesars with a reserved table so I figure $100 could get a reservation in a smaller place. That way every roll has the edge.
If I had even a 2% edge on the line, I could grow a bankroll to be able to afford either black or purple bets and that's plenty big enough to get a private table. And because it'd be just me, I could throw at least four times per minute, maybe more, generating over $500/hour with $100 bets.
Yes, exactly. I think that on his "betting systems" page the Wizard shows how easy it is to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 in just a few months with only a 1% edge.
Kelly betting is powerful, indeed.
Quote: MathExtremistFor starters, it's always amazed me that people who claim to have a meaningful advantage due to their craps play would bother with anything less than black chips. Let's suppose your edge was a whopping +10% on the pass + odds. Making $3 passline bets with odds would yield about $10/hour. What's the point?
I don't think the big roller was betting the $3 table minimum, but I'd definitely have noticed if he was playing big stacks of black or purple chips. I'd guess he was playing $25 green chips at the most. One more reason to chalk that shooter up as just lucky instead of truly influencing the dice, maybe? Or perhaps he was just tuning up for his high roller session somewhere else later in the day...
Quote: MathExtremistQuote:For starters, it's always amazed me that people who claim to have a meaningful advantage due to their craps play would bother with anything less than black chips. Let's suppose your edge was a whopping +10% on the pass + odds. Making $3 passline bets with odds would yield about $10/hour. What's the point?
I can only guess. I don't know of anyone that has claimed they can stand there 8 hours a day throw after throw and hold on to the edge that long or consistently. Maybe the $3 passline is just to hold the dice so they can attempt bonus bets, or maybe they consider any profit steadily preferable to any loss? Hard to know their motivations?Quote:And to answer the serious question, if a DI was good enough to actually win consistent money, they could afford to play at a reserved table with nobody else so the problem of other players would never happen. I saw a $500-chip bettor at Caesars with a reserved table so I figure $100 could get a reservation in a smaller place. That way every roll has the edge.
If that were possible I don't believe they would get the opportunity very many times.Quote:If I had even a 2% edge on the line, I could grow a bankroll to be able to afford either black or purple bets and that's plenty big enough to get a private table. And because it'd be just me, I could throw at least four times per minute, maybe more, generating over $500/hour with $100 bets.
Again, just guessing. If you placed one hundred on the passline and four hundred behind it, four throws a minute that's two thousand a minute. Variance still applies, bad days etc. Ten hour day subtracting for bathroom breaks and a couple meals, that's a million dollar day with the possibility with a two percent edge, of maybe making twenty grand. I think if I had that kind of money and courage I'd seek out other entertainment than listening to some hairy legged stickman making calls?
Quote: petroglyphAgain, just guessing. If you placed one hundred on the passline and four hundred behind it, four throws a minute that's two thousand a minute. Variance still applies, bad days etc. Ten hour day subtracting for bathroom breaks and a couple meals, that's a million dollar day with the possibility with a two percent edge, of maybe making twenty grand. I think if I had that kind of money and courage I'd seek out other entertainment than listening to some hairy legged stickman making calls?
You completely miss the point. As your bankroll grows so you do your bets. You don't stop at $100 bets. You stop at the table max.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou completely miss the point. As your bankroll grows so you do your bets. You don't stop at $100 bets. You stop at the table max.
OK, thanks. That would be just like me, missing it. That wasn't a pun was it?
In theory it sounds like the way to go, I just love a good parlay when it works. I don't think shooting is my worst problem, for me it's table discipline, and not leaving when I'm ahead before I get too tired to shoot well. I got great dreams of making it big, life though does tend to get in the way.
Where is the Wolfe.
Quote: petroglyphOK, thanks. That would be just like me, missing it. That wasn't a pun was it?
In theory it sounds like the way to go, I just love a good parlay when it works. I don't think shooting is my worst problem, for me it's table discipline, and not leaving when I'm ahead before I get too tired to shoot well. I got great dreams of making it big, life though does tend to get in the way.
Where is the Wolfe.
If you have an edge you do not leave when you are ahead. You keep playing and playing until you have all the money.
I cant believe after all this time we are right where we started.
Lets say you have a 2% advantage over the casino, that would take a fairly
good shooter. You have to remember you still need to contend with the inherent
casino advantage.
You all know what the pass line and so on is, there you may have about a .5% advantage
then you have the place on 6 & 8and they have a 4% advantage so you lose 2%
on every bet you make on the 5 & 9 and the 4 & 10 will cost you about 2.75%.
Looks like our easy money just flew out the door.
Even worse unless you are god and can throw a 6 or 8 on the come out every roll, after you
establish the number the advantage again turns to the house and you are a 59/41 underdog to
make the point.
Add that to the fluctuations that are inherent in any game with a small advantage, just the normal
ebb and flow will bankrupt you in short order., if you play to long.
If you use your head and bet properly and keep the wins you get and add them to your gambling
account and have a very small stop loss on other days you can surely grow your gambling account
so you can increase your bets. But this is hardly the nonsense we see here where all you have to do
is get a 1% advantage and stay at the table until your rich.
Dice throwing is just as much a physical sport or activity as any other, and in that light
how much money would Tiger Woods have if he made $100,000,000 million for every golf event he won
but had to pay back $100,000,000 for everyone he lost.
You have to be smoking something to think a 1or 2% advantage means on every roll of every hour
you spend at the table.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterThis is pure folly........
I cant believe after all this time we are right where we started.
Lets say you have a 2% advantage over the casino, that would take a fairly
good shooter. You have to remember you still need to contend with the inherent
casino advantage.
You all know what the pass line and so on is, there you may have about a .5% advantage
then you have the place on 5 & 9 and they have a 4% advantage so you lose 2%
on every bet you make on the 5 & 9 and the 4 & 10 will cost you about 2.75%.
Looks like our easy money just flew out the door.
Even worse unless you are god and can throw a 6 or 8 on the come out every roll, after you
establish the number the advantage again turns to the house and you are a 59/41 underdog to
make the point.
Add that to the fluctuations that are inherent in any game with a small advantage, just the normal
ebb and flow will bankrupt you in short order., if you play to long.
If you use your head and bet properly and keep the wins you get and add them to your gambling
account and have a very small stop loss on other days you can surely grow your gambling account
so you can increase your bets. But this is hardly the nonsense we see here where all you have to do
is get a 1% advantage and stay at the table until your rich.
Dice throwing is just as much a physical sport or activity as any other, and in that light
how much money would Tiger Woods have if he made $100,000,000 million for every golf event he won
but had to pay back $100,000,000 for everyone he lost.
You have to be smoking something to think a 1or 2% advantage means on every roll of every hour
you spend at the table.
dicesetter
The words you are using do not match the normal definitions of the words. A 2% edge is just that, a 2% advantage on every pass line bet. That is what the words mean. There is no "inherent casino advantage". The casino's advantage comes from the dice rolls following the expected distribution. If you can alter that then there is no inherent advantage for the casino, we have to start over and re-calculate the edge for the pass line bet, given the new distributions. If it works out to 2% for the player, then we say that the player has a 2% edge.
The only reason that people do not make money doing this is because it is a fairy tale. No one can get an advantage at craps with a legal roll. If they could, they would clean out the casino in short order. That is all there is to it.
AWWW spoilsport !
