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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:17:10 PM permalink
I missed this:

Who originally reported making 8 hard-tens within 200 rolls?

"8 H10s in 200 rolls: 0.087439579"

Where and when?
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:32:53 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

I mentioned this to Tupp on the way in but I wasn't initially even intending to record rolls because I wanted to do something different and that was to try to hit as many hard tens in as few rolls as possible and get it on film and try to isolate one of those shots to see if it looked random or not.


The reason I asked you what the objective for you next show is because before this show you did not mention trying "to hit as many hard tens in as few rolls as possible." In fact, you had posted before the show that your goal was an entirely different number:
Quote: Ahigh

"If I throw the dice tonight, I would like to chart out hard 8 parlay bets and try to hit another 3 hard 8's with no easy live. Someone brought up the idea that I might be throwing my money away betting the hardways which have a 2.78% edge per roll instead of 0.5%. In theory, with my throw, I have the edge on the hard 8 bet. Even over the course of 3000 throws. Of course that is just theory, but a live performance would put me on the spot to demonstrate if the theory might mean something or not."

7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:34:09 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

I missed this:
Who originally reported making 8 hard-tens within 200 rolls?
"8 H10s in 200 rolls: 0.087439579"
Where and when?

I have not yet watched the show from last night but Ahigh posted the dice rolls and showed it here
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12821-ahigh-show-tuesday-at-7-30pm-pacific-time/69/#post233593

H10 8/5 ( 4.00% - 2.78% = +2.44)

He actually did not roll any H10s until the 105th roll
So he really rolled 8 H10s in 94 rolls.
A 1 in 186 shot.
I want to see the slo-mo vids on them too.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:35:35 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

He actually did not roll any H10s until the 105th roll


How many H8's did he roll?
7craps
7craps
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:39:37 PM permalink
From last night
H2: 4
H4: 6
H6: 3
H8: 7
H10: 8
H12: 5
total: 33

5.6 is the average
33.3 avg for all pairs
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
petroglyph
petroglyph
Joined: Jan 3, 2013
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:48:12 PM permalink
@ 7craps, good find
thanks for sharing



Dr. Joe Gallenbergerhttp://www.synccreation.com/about-joe
"His students achieve strong altered states of consciousness and energy,
resulting in dramatic physical and psychological healing,
strong influence over dice and slot machines, and many beautiful manifestations in participant's lives at home."

Good Luck

Zcore13
Zcore13
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:49:40 PM permalink
I watched the broadcast live, except for about 20 minutes that I got disconnected and couldn't re-connect, and I viewed the slow motion clips he provided of the hard rolls afterward. There is absolutely no control in any one of the 200 rolls. The cat in the room was more accurate in predicting good rolls than Aaron was. Many times he claimed "good roll" or something to that effect as it left his hand and hit a 7. Many times he said it felt and looked good but then looked at the slow motion and admitted there was no control of the shot at all. 0 for 200. What happened was just luck. He had bad luck in a few more 7's than would be expected and good luck that a few hard 10's came in the second half of the roll.

As I mentioned, if he continues to concentrate only on hard 10's and is able to show a significant amount of more hard 10's than expected over thousands of rolls, then there might be something to talk about. He said he was concentrating on hard 4's and hard 10's. 2 out of 6 possibilities for hard-ways. He nailed a 33% chance. Do it again and again, then you might show some influencing.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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April 10th, 2013 at 7:54:11 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

The reason I asked you what the objective for you next show is because before this show you did not mention trying "to hit as many hard tens in as few rolls as possible." In fact, you had posted before the show that your goal was an entirely different number:

Quote: Ahigh

"If I throw the dice tonight, I would like to chart out hard 8 parlay bets and try to hit another 3 hard 8's with no easy live. Someone brought up the idea that I might be throwing my money away betting the hardways which have a 2.78% edge per roll instead of 0.5%. In theory, with my throw, I have the edge on the hard 8 bet. Even over the course of 3000 throws. Of course that is just theory, but a live performance would put me on the spot to demonstrate if the theory might mean something or not."




No you're right. I stated that goal before going to the Silverton and accomplishing all those back-to-back hard tens. After coming back from doing that at the Silverton at lunch, I was thinking more hard tens than hard 8's, and I verbalized that through the show, including at the moment when I hit the first hard ten I joked at that point verbally that the whole point of the show was to have back-to-back hard tens and the first one I hit wasn't until after a hundred rolls!

Click the link to hear that moment where I verbalize "the whole show was supposed to be to see how many hard tens I could roll and my first one at roll 110 ..."

http://youtu.be/jxeKk73zpok?t=52m

So it should be obvious for those who watched the whole show that I was trying to hit hard tens and not hard 8's for the show. But you're right that I stated hard 8's before I was hitting hard tens at lunch and also noting that I was hitting lots of hard tens at California Club last Friday.

But I'll give you that my goals did change between noon yesterday and 2:40pm yesterday due to what happened at the casino. I detailed exactly what happened in the casino at around 2:40pm yesterday as I was making plans for the show.

I also verbally stated my goals, and in general I would have been as happy with hard8's or hard 6's back to back. It was really the back-to-back nature that I was going for even more than which hardway I had.

I have done back-to-back hard tens more than any other hardway back-to-back though historically. And you can see that in my videos and I also know it personally from my throwing. But of course chance could be a factor there; I'm not saying I know why.

Here's where I stated the goal for the show. And please do note that the goal wasn't to roll fewer sevens.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxeKk73zpok

And for what it's worth the whole goal of trying to find a shot that doesn't look random has been the result of everyone saying that all my videos like the 9 hardways in 10 throws looked like random shots.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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April 10th, 2013 at 8:43:40 PM permalink
I didn't watch the entire show. How many soft tens?
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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April 10th, 2013 at 9:04:26 PM permalink
Nine times.

Zcore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.

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