Let's Write to MythBusters To do a Show About Dice Control
Quote: heavyOkay, quick review - SRR is lower than average, as is BSR. Both dice on axis is better than average but his primary face hits are lower. Meanwhile single pitch and double pitch hits were up significantly. Both dice were off axis less than norm. So you tell me. Is there any indication of influence in these numbers? How many percentage points will any one of the foundation frequencies have to vary from standard to demonstrate an exploitable edge? How would you bet if you had this data in advance of the shooter getting the dice?
We've already established that the statistics tracked by BoneTracker are not valid representations of what actually happened, and it's impossible to make valid conclusions from invalid premises. But no, there is no indication of influence in these numbers. It is trivial, for example, to create an Excel spreadsheet which draws numbers randomly from 1 to 6, and then does this 1440 times for a total of 720 simulated dice rolls. In just such a spreadsheet, and with only a few dozen trials (pressing F9) I have observed statistics including 7.57 SRR / 5.29 BSR and 4.86 SRR / 3.11 BSR. Your results are well within the norm for random rolling. Without additional data, attributing those results to skill is improper.
Gots to AGREE with ME.Quote: MathExtremistYour results are well within the norm for random rolling.
Without additional data, attributing those results to skill is improper.
All random results.
The masses really do not understand what random results really are.
Makes it easy to sell DI classes by anyone.
A year ago I asked 103 people this question. (It was at a casino night party)
In a fair coin toss, flipping 10 times, how many heads and how many tails?
Most say 5 heads and 5 tails.
Most say that was easy to answer.
But we know that not every time it will be 5 heads and 5 tails.
Obvious question.
What percent of these 10 flip sets will have exactly 5H & 5T?
100% of the replies were 50% or higher.
They all said that was easy because they know the chance of a head of tail is 50%.
Is this correct? ME knows.
Heavy uses that fact, people not understanding what a random result is, to his advantage.
sell, sell and more sell.
Hey, if it works for him, it does nothing for me. proof or no proof of DI.
If he is shooting the dice at a Craps table that I am at, I still bet the same way.
I just know when he 7outs in 3 rolls, he will have some kind of excuse. All DIs have quad-zillions of them.
I just want him to make sure both dice hit the back wall, I am happy.
My feeling is Heavy does not like to lose. There are many Gamblers like that. Even the best BJ card counters HATE to lose, but they should know better.
Ever. Even when he has an advantage.
That explains his method of hits and runs.
Of course, it is a mentally and physically exhausting method of play for him when he is not in his zone.
But only he has to deal with that.
Quote: guido111But we know that not every time it will be 5 heads and 5 tails.
Obvious question.
What percent of these 10 flip sets will have exactly 5H & 5T?
100% of the replies were 50% or higher.
They all said that was easy because they know the chance of a head of tail is 50%.
Is this correct? ME knows.
This is the basis for a great sucker bet. Ask someone that question, get the answer, and then offer them 2-1 odds on that happening. Or 3-1 if you're feeling generous. The true odds are c(10,5)/2^10 = 24.61%, assuming a fair coin. Let them flip the coin. Even at 3-1 you have a 1.56% edge. At 2-1 it's 26% and at even money it's almost 51%.
And it is always the same result. MONEY TALKS AND BULLSHIT WALKS
Have a nice walk.
Quote: heavy
Soopoo - you continue to beat a dead horse. I've told you that it is common knowledge when and where I conduct my seminars. I'm really not that hard to find in the casino on those weekends, but in case you can't find your way around I'll be happy to provide you with directions, date and time. Show up and track rolls. I could care less. Toss a few bucks on the table if you want. Not going to bother me as long as you get your bets in early and keep your hands out of the way when the dice are out. But forget the side-bet idea. It's been done to death.
I suspect it's me whose beating that dead horse, but go on, find your clue bag and grab one. Why would anyone who dis-believes your abilities merely follow you around? You are the one making the claim of an ability, and therefore it's up to you to prove it (or not). Why would anyone spend time and effort following your throws for no reward? They wouldn't.
As I've stated, you clearly believe you have advantage at chucking dice. So any bet you made you would have an advantage. So why not make an advantage bet? Because either:
a) You are playing too scared to lose.
b) You don't have the advantage
c) You don't like making advantage bets.
d) You are outright lying about your advantage.
No-one's been denying you don't play craps and can't be found. Theydispute YOUR claims of control. You made 'em, you prove 'em. Otherwise, it's baloney.
If I stated I could predict the exact number on a roulette wheel from eyeballing the spin 1 time out of 20, are sure as eggs are eggs, I'd expect to be called on that, and expect to have to prove it. If I could do it, I'd happily make a bet on it as well and have the confidence to back up my claims without hiding.
If the side-bet has been done to death, I assume you've ACTUALLY done one in the past?
Quote: thecesspitI suspect it's me whose beating that dead horse, but go on, find your clue bag and grab one. Why would anyone who dis-believes your abilities merely follow you around? You are the one making the claim of an ability, and therefore it's up to you to prove it (or not). Why would anyone spend time and effort following your throws for no reward? They wouldn't.
If the side-bet has been done to death, I assume you've ACTUALLY done one in the past?
Actually, cesspit, I would spend time watching him, if it fit my schedule. Just as I would watch mrjjj win at roulette. Just as I would watch crapsforever roll those 7's 25% of the time. The concept of people who think they can do something that they clearly cannot fascinates me. I would love to watch, then hear the excuses..... So if Heavy happens to be in Vegas when I am there, I would watch him. And despite what you may think, I'd be rooting for him (unless we had a personal bet, which as he has stated, aint gonna happen!)
And of course he has never done the 'side bet', or trust me, we would have heard about his 'victory'.
Quote: SOOPOOActually, cesspit, I would spend time watching him, if it fit my schedule. Just as I would watch mrjjj win at roulette. Just as I would watch crapsforever roll those 7's 25% of the time. The concept of people who think they can do something that they clearly cannot fascinates me. I would love to watch, then hear the excuses..... So if Heavy happens to be in Vegas when I am there, I would watch him. And despite what you may think, I'd be rooting for him (unless we had a personal bet, which as he has stated, aint gonna happen!)
And of course he has never done the 'side bet', or trust me, we would have heard about his 'victory'.
Damn, I've been corrected twice by you this weekend. :)
"SRR- 5.33
BSR- 3.47
Both On Axis- 45.97
PFH -8.33
Single Pitch- 23.89
DP- 13.75
Left Off- 165
Right Off- 156
Total One off- 44.58
Both Off- 9.44"
What I really want to know is what the expected outcome Heavy claims - (ie..probability of 7) and the standard deviation.
These numbers don't make sense to me.
Quote: slackyhackyCan someone interpret this for me?
"SRR- 5.33
BSR- 3.47
Both On Axis- 45.97
PFH -8.33
Single Pitch- 23.89
DP- 13.75
Left Off- 165
Right Off- 156
Total One off- 44.58
Both Off- 9.44"
What I really want to know is what the expected outcome Heavy claims - (ie..probability of 7) and the standard deviation.
These numbers don't make sense to me.
BoneTracker Program
You can download for free and read the user manual pdf.
It is all about probability and expected values.
DIs believe that after 200 rolls, there is no variance and one has then proved their dice control skills.
They even add some spreadsheet by Wong, looks like he spent maybe 20 minutes on it, and it still shows nothing about variance.
A few slow motion videos of a pair of dice in flight from set to rest really shows that all DIs believe that the end justifies the means,
meaning it does not matter how many times the dice bounce and spin and rotate and get off and back on -axis before rest,
the set and the delivery is all that matters to any DI and nothing else.
More important things to do, NBA playoffs and more South Park.
My video talents and equipment really suck. Too much time wasted looking for 5 seconds of good video clips.
Time to use a pro video guy and top cameras to really record dice in flight, just like filming a bird in flight close-up, well 2 birds..
I think you can practice your toss as effectively throwing your dice on your bed.
And Heavy... don't feel bad about what I wrote. I'm one of your "friends." LOL
