Craps- Optimum pressing strategy?

$10min, 3/4/5x odds, commision paid when # is hit.

after I hit 6 numbers, I press 50% for each # hit after that:
$10/15/22/33/50/etc, all w/max odds

so for the 6/8, i increase the flat bet to $15/22/33/etc everytime it hits after i start pressing.
for the 4/10, and 5/9 i BUY to press to the equivalent. (I have a piece of paper that has the amounts.)

when ALL the flat bets are at $10, i move up to $15 for the Come bet (after I hit 6 #'s). when all flat bets are $15, i move up to $22 for the Come, etc.

But is 50% too aggressive?

I want a balance between profit and taking advantage of a long roll. I'm thinking 33% (1/3) to 40% (2/5) might be better?

How do you press your bets? Why that pattern?

I hate pressing. The seven always seems to come at the time when I have just begun the press. In the long run, all it does is increase your expected loss. "Long roll?" I would rather have a bunch of decent short rolls.

Flat betting's my thing.

50% may not be aggressive enough. If you aim for about 62% (i.e. phi, the Golden Ratio), your rate of realized bankroll growth and bet growth for even-money bets will be roughly equal. Is that what you mean by "balance"?

You can approximate this by playing the Fibonacci sequence. But it really depends on what your goals are. I will say this: the two biggest dice wins of my life (both >1500) have been when I pressed by the Fibonacci sequence.

I haven't really noodled with the numbers for odds bets or non-even-money payouts, and part of the problem is that the numbers often get weird. As an example, you've got them written down on paper. Instead, do this: every time you win a bet, put between 1/2 and 2/3 of that win back on the table, and the other 1/2 to 1/3 in your rack. Don't bother calculating exact amounts; that's too much work and there are way too many permutations.

i am guessing that the two biggest losses of your life were ...when you were pressing with the fibonacci sequence as well.

my doubts have evaporated now that I have seen the diagram

Fibonacci never loses! It's mystical, man...

To the OP:

Why not place bet instead of line bet?

Especially 6 and 8.

You can spread out at will.

honest to God, I came across this quite coincidentally:

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/09/building-a-fibonacci-confluence-grid-for-the-sp-500-index-reference-indexsp-inx-spy-sds/

If I understand this correctly, you're doing come bets on every number. When all are covered then you take the flat up, and wait til that new flat has travelled to every number, then the next new flat. So it sounds like you could hit the six/eight a few times before getting on all of them. If you're looking for big wins, I would skip the come bet. And if you're doing put bets then you're losing money vs. place/buy bets.

While I like doing the come bets and feel they're better bets to make, they're not always good money makers for short rolls. If bigger wins and not smaller losses is what you're looking for, then I say start with $54 across and press whatever hits by roughly half. Here's one I've been thinking about but haven't tried yet. On 6/8, first hit go to $18, second hit, go to $30, third hit, drop $2 and go to $42, then $60, $90, $150, $240, $360, $540, $720, $1080, MAX. Assuming of course a $1200 max on 6/8.

5 and 9 is pretty much the same thing, just numbers are different.. 10, 15, 25, 35, 50, 75, 125, 200, 300 etc..

4/10 I would buy for $20 on first hit, then just double the buy after each hit..

The come bet has one big flaw: they all go down if on an ensuing comeout the "hot shooter" rolls a natural seven.

I know some believe in pressing and some don't; I've never won big ($500 or more over a $200-$400 buy in) without pressing either come bets or place bets (sometimes a combo of both). I am sure others have but my experience is that if I am not pressing when I am even or a little better, I'm not winning a lot.

I play on a $5 table with a $500 bankroll. Come Bets keep me in the game much longer than place bets however I always make much less money on long rolls using come bets as opposed to place bets. I tend to be very conservative with my odds on come bets while I'm too aggressive with pressing place bets. That optimal balance is the hardest thing for me to achieve.

7's seem to always knock down my Come Bets on Comeout Rolls so I have to use the Worst Casino Bet "Any 7/Big Red" to protect my Come Bets; it's very frustrating!

Quote: MrV

To the OP:

Why not place bet instead of line bet?

Especially 6 and 8.

You can spread out at will.

buying 4/10, 5/9 has lower house edge than placing when the commision is paid after you hit.

for the 6/8: placing and adding to the flat bet at 5x odds has the same house edge.
i add because it's easier to keep count of the flat bet.

Quote: MathExtremist

50% may not be aggressive enough. If you aim for about 62% (i.e. phi, the Golden Ratio), your rate of realized bankroll growth and bet growth for even-money bets will be roughly equal. Is that what you mean by "balance"?

You can approximate this by playing the Fibonacci sequence. But it really depends on what your goals are. I will say this: the two biggest dice wins of my life (both >1500) have been when I pressed by the Fibonacci sequence.

I haven't really noodled with the numbers for odds bets or non-even-money payouts, and part of the problem is that the numbers often get weird. As an example, you've got them written down on paper. Instead, do this: every time you win a bet, put between 1/2 and 2/3 of that win back on the table, and the other 1/2 to 1/3 in your rack. Don't bother calculating exact amounts; that's too much work and there are way too many permutations.

2/3's press?! at what point does that exceed the profit from a 50% press?

ok, i did alot of calcs in an Excel spreadsheet using $10 min, 3/4/5x odds and $3000 table max. ($3k max of all bets on table.)
And this is playing electronic craps (w/real dice) thus no need to worry about dealer mistakes on payout.

Came up w/my Optimum press:
Flat bet $10/17/30/50/85 + max odds
(Going to $150 flat + odds on all #s puts me over the $3k table limit.)

at pressing 70% of the flat bet, I using:
60% of the payout for 6/8
50% of the payout for 5/9
40% of the payout for 4/10

Holy math Batman! Look at those %. the simplicity cant be coincedance.

for the 6/8 and 5/9, pressing 60% and 50% respectively gives me near max profit if my $85 flat w/odds hits.
For the 4/10, doubling the flat bet seems to be best for max profit. ie: $10/20/40/80/160

but i think 10/17/30/50/85 is optimum for simplicity and because you can only do 1 amount on the Come bet. if you bet $40 Come, you wuld be over extending the 6/8, 5/9.

now to make it more complicated, i could have a piece of paper with the proper amounts BUY the 4/10 to get it to 20/40/80/160...

What do you think?

hm.. Fibonacci press:
Flat bets: $10/15/25/40/65/105 + max odds

thats like using:
50% of the payout of 6/8 to press
40% of the payout of 5/9 to press
30% of the payout of the 4/10 to press

thats a little less aggressive than my Optimum press.

but Which is better? WHY?


edit:
flat bets of $10/15/25/40/60/100 + odds

i hit the $3000 table limit exactly at $100 flat with 3/4/5x odds.

First, no betting system will make you a winner at craps which is a negative expectation game.

but here's what I do and take it for what it's worth (which isnt much unless you have a decent roll to be betting and pressing on):

At a $5 or $10 table, when my wins have paid back my initial outlay of pass, odds and place bets, I start to press from the inside going out. On a $5 table, I do a full unit, on a $10 table I go up one-half of a unit. I did this the other night at Harrahs Rincon which had a $5 craps table, bought in with $80 and at one point I had more than $300.

When Morongo first introduced card craps at a $5 table, I started with $34 across (I missed the come out "cards") and they went through the entire shoe without a seven out and ended up putting more than $3000 in my pocket and had $300 on the table.

If I am at a $25 table I do something different. After my initial outlay is paid back (could be the point is made and I bet full odds or a bunch of numbers are rolled) I press either $32 or $34 on three of the inside numbers. For example: the point is 8, and a 9 is rolled paying $35, I press $10 on the 5, $12 on the 6, $10 on the 9. If the point is a 4, or 10, I press three inside numbers at a time-- it doesnt matter which-- but out of habit if the point is 4 I will press 5, 6, 8 and if the point is 10 I will press 6, 8, 9.

If the next roll is a number, I press the bets to "fix them" which is to make them "even." Let's say the 5 hits with $35 on it. I throw the dealer a dollar to make the 5 look like $50 and get back the difference. And with each successive point I will fix another number so that I have double the original bet. This is very aggressive because with each press I am only adding a small profit to my rail. Once the inside numbers are all "doubled" then I press them one unit each as more numbers are rolled. I rarely press the 4 and 10.

When all of the inside numbers are returning a black chip ($105) with each successive roll, I stop pressing. To reach this point, I have three green chip units on each of the inside numbers. If I get lucky, this will happen once in a weekend. Twice, the shooter kept hitting numbers and I pressed the inside one more time to black chips.

Only twice in my years of playing craps did I ever have all of the inside numbers pressed up to black chips. And on each of those particular shooters I colored up more than five thousand dollars. The most I ever had on one number was $200. The last time this happened was about five years ago.

What I hate about craps is that you win one number at a time, and then you lose them all at once.

I have been using this method for the past month or so and have done ok so far. Very conservative.

1,1,1.5,1.5,2,2,3,3,5,5,7,7,10

Quote: AlanMendelson

What I hate about craps is that you win one number at a time, and then you lose them all at once.

Yeah. I prefer playing playing pass line with odds with 2-3 come bets, but sometimes my bankroll can't take the negative hits from when that 7 wipes out a decent amount of money that's on the table. Lately, I've shied away from the come bets and switched to placing the 6 and 8 instead (I still do the pass line with full odds though). At a $5 table, I'll collect on a couple hits before pressing my 6 and/or 8. Maybe I throw in a 5 and 9 if things go well.

Quote:

Quote: AlanMendelson
What I hate about craps is that you win one number at a time, and then you lose them all at once.

Not if you're playing the Don'ts, Alan. You win ALL the numbers at once (but you lose them one at a time).

AGGRESSIVE: If you are coming to the Casino and your goal is to make a lot of money or lose everything.. Press all day.

CONSERVATIVE: If you are coming to last the entire Craps session and hopefully make money...be very conservative, flat bet.

BALANCED: I have never seen someone who is able to find a perfect balance between the two strategies.

i think the strategy with the lowest house edge will last the longest.
ie: continuous pass/come bets w/max odds.

but more times than not i've had all the #'s (4,5,6,8,9,10) w/o any repeats/points hitting, then a 7. :(

Then I switched to 3point betty: passline + 2 come bets.
-after hitting 3 points, i do a 3rd come bet.
-after 4 points, a 4th come bet.
-and after 5 points, continuous come.

i dont press till i hit my 6th point. 6points pays for all 6 #'s (4,5,6,8,9,10) plus some profit. i use 50% of profit to press.


for me, the balance between conservative and agression is pressing/adding #s after you've won back your initial investment. (Like Player C)

Quote: 100xOdds

i think the strategy with the lowest house edge will last the longest.
ie: continuous pass/come bets w/max odds.

but more times than not i've had all the #'s (4,5,6,8,9,10) w/o any repeats/points hitting, then a 7. :(

Then I switched to 3point betty: passline + 2 come bets.
-after hitting 3 points, i do a 3rd come bet.
-after 4 points, a 4th come bet.
-and after 5 points, continuous come.

i dont press till i hit my 6th point. 6points pays for all 6 #'s (4,5,6,8,9,10) plus some profit. i use 50% of profit to press.


for me, the balance between conservative and agression is pressing/adding #s after you've won back your initial investment. (Like Player C)

I disagree with the continuous come bets strategy. I know the math says it has the lowest edge but I've lost using that strategy too many times that I had to quit. I had a losing craps session streak of 25+ mostly utilizing this strategy and I refuse to keep playing his way. What kept on happening was Players kept on establishing a point (example 4), I'll play come bets with odds, player hits the 5,6,8,9,10 then 7's out.

the largest reduction in the aggregate house edge, comes between zero and 1x odds. (1.41% to .848%)
i usually play the pass, place 6/8 (or 8/9 or 6/9 depending on point), with two-four come bets.
if i don't feel like taking full odds, i at least try to take 1x or 2x on the line and come
and add to it when the table heats up, and my come bets replace my place bets.

Quote: WongBo

the largest reduction in the aggregate house edge, comes between zero and 1x odds. (1.41% to .848%)
i usually play the pass, place 6/8 (or 8/9 or 6/9 depending on point), with two-four come bets.
if i don't feel like taking full odds, i at least try to take 1x or 2x on the line and come
and add to it when the table heats up, and my come bets replace my place bets.

WongBo, how do you handle it emotionally when you have 4 or more come bets that come down on a subsequent comeout roll "7"?

It drives me Crazy! I either hedge by making a Pass Line bet for the same amount of total come bets I have out there or I bet the Any 7/Hop 7's to cover the come bets.

Quote: CrapsForever

WongBo, how do you handle it emotionally when you have 4 or more come bets that come down on a subsequent comeout roll "7"? It drives me Crazy! I either hedge by making a Pass Line bet for the same amount of total come bets I have out there or I bet the Any 7/Hop 7's to cover the come bets.

I am not WongBo but I always play come bets and will might place the 8 & 6 early in the roll. If the shooter has been hot and I have all or most of the numbers covered with come bets and max odds then I will often tell the dealer to leave them up after a come out 7. You are basically making a put bet and need to pay your base bet (odds stay in place) for each come bet you have out there. Of course it actually makes no difference in the long run but it does keep you in the action after getting all the numbers covered. I will usually only do this if the numbers have been hitting and I am already up on that shooters roll.

of course i hate to see the come bets lose on a new come out,
but i usually play at low minimums (3,5 or 10), so i don't really take it that hard.
i am trying to pump up my odds to 3x now and eventually press to 3-4-5 or 5x where i can
the odds should be the bulk of your wagers. there is just no better bet on the table.
i like leaving a little room on my odds initially,
so i can press up when ahead and take down when
some a-hole pulls some bullshit and you know red is going to show.

Quote: WongBo

of course i hate to see the come bets lose on a new come out,
but i usually play at low minimums (3,5 or 10), so i don't really take it that hard.
i am trying to pump up my odds to 3x now and eventually press to 3-4-5 or 5x where i can
the odds should be the bulk of your wagers. there is just no better bet on the table.
i like leaving a little room on my odds initially,
so i can press up when ahead and take down when
some a-hole pulls some bullshit and you know red is going to show.

Good info!

What I hate about come bets with full odds is this: the number has to hit twice.

I think the average shooter throws the dice 5 or 6 times. That leads me to believe some come bets with full odds are going to be swept away with the 7-out.

Heavy: it's interesting you mentioned the "don't strategy" of winning all your bets with a 7 out, but losing one at a time. In fact, in tournaments I start by laying all the numbers for the come-out with the maximum lay bet allowed, plus bet the pass. If the 7 is rolled on the come out, I am way ahead in the tourney. If a number is rolled, I lose one bet and take down all of the don'ts.

It worked once at a tourney and got me into the top finishers.

Quote: AlanMendelson

In fact, in tournaments I start by laying all the numbers for the come-out with the maximum lay bet allowed, plus bet the pass. If the 7 is rolled on the come out, I am way ahead in the tourney. If a number is rolled, I lose one bet and take down all of the don'ts.

It worked once at a tourney and got me into the top finishers.

Interesting...

Quote: MathExtremist

50% may not be aggressive enough. If you aim for about 62% (i.e. phi, the Golden Ratio), your rate of realized bankroll growth and bet growth for even-money bets will be roughly equal. Is that what you mean by "balance"?

You can approximate this by playing the Fibonacci sequence. But it really depends on what your goals are. I will say this: the two biggest dice wins of my life (both >1500) have been when I pressed by the Fibonacci sequence.

I haven't really noodled with the numbers for odds bets or non-even-money payouts, and part of the problem is that the numbers often get weird. As an example, you've got them written down on paper. Instead, do this: every time you win a bet, put between 1/2 and 2/3 of that win back on the table, and the other 1/2 to 1/3 in your rack. Don't bother calculating exact amounts; that's too much work and there are way too many permutations.

I thought of a new Balanced pressing strategy.

I play e-Craps, $5 min 3/4/5x odds.
The machine makes it easy to see exactly how much $ you have on the table and how much you have in your rack.

I press such that $ on table = $ in my rack.
so it's a 50% press of my winnings, which is about the same of a Golden Ratio press (62%) of my Flat bets.
But I press by Placing the 6/8 instead of increasing the Flat bet. it's just easier.

I start with $100:
$5 Pass/Continuous Come, max odds till I have $100 on the table (or as close to it as possible).

lets say I hit enough #s such that I now have $125 in my rack.
I then Place the 6/8 for $6 each.
I now have $112 on the table, and $113 in my rack.

How's this for a balanced strategy?

Quote: 100xOdds

I thought of a new Balanced pressing strategy.

I play e-Craps, $5 min 3/4/5x odds.
The machine makes it easy to see exactly how much $ you have on the table and how much you have in your rack.

I press such that $ on table = $ in my rack.
so it's a 50% press of my winnings, which is about the same of a Golden Ratio press (62%) of my Flat bets.
But I press by Placing the 6/8 instead of increasing the Flat bet. it's just easier.

I start with $100:
$5 Pass/Continuous Come, max odds till I have $100 on the table (or as close to it as possible).

lets say I hit enough #s such that I now have $125 in my rack.
I then Place the 6/8 for $6 each.
I now have $112 on the table, and $113 in my rack.

How's this for a balanced strategy?

As measured by the visible chips, or the EV dollar amount? It's a good way to stay in the game either way, but the action gets thin as the bankroll depletes.