"system" - Pass + Don't Come?
February 21st, 2012 at 11:18:00 PM
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Howdy... new to the forum so sorry if this has been discussed.
Ever since I learned to play I've always been a right bettor. I know that the dark side has better odds, but the thought of betting against the rest of the table just rubs me the wrong way.
My downfall playing craps is that I love action. I can't help but talking myself into placing just one more come bet. When the bankroll gets small I start placing the 6 and 8 (which aren't too bad) or betting sucker bets just so I can have more bets on the table. Of course that is great when you have someone who can't throw a seven, but those disasters where you get all six numbers working for you and then you seven out, and you watch all of those numbers come down always really sting. For somebody like me, who plays without too big of a bankroll, if you're betting $2 pass/come and $10 odds on everything, that's $72 coming down with just one roll.
I've been experimenting with a new "system" (meaning a method of betting... I know I can't change the house edge) making the pass line and then DC bets. For example, I'll play $2 pass with $10 or $20 odds and then place a $2 DC bet. If I establish a DC point, I'll lay whatever it takes to win $10.
There are a few things I like about this idea:
1. You get to bet the pass and play with the shooter and the table. Hitting points is still how this system makes you money.
2. The big payoff is still kinda in play... it's a lot of fun when you have the DC going all the way across, hit your point, and then roll a 7 on the come-out.
3. You never lose everything at once. My worst possible one-roll loss is $24 (establish a point, bet $20 odds, place a DC, roll a 7).
4. ACTION! You get a lot of bets working without too much of it being risked at one time.
5. Always uses the bets with the lowest HE.
Obviously the MONSTER ROLL (which is what got all of us hooked on this damn game) is no longer really in play. That stuff of legend when the shooter just can't make 'em turn up 7 and you're pulling in $30 every time they roll the dice. That is definitely a huge disadvantage. And it makes it even worse that the monster roll is a killer for me using this system. Really sucks constantly shelling out another $22 when the shooter keeps hitting 4s and 10s over and over and over.
I'm not a statistics guy, but it seems that this system is a little more level. While testing this out, it's pretty common that I make a ton of bets, and by the time it's all over I'm up or down less than $20. Might not be a bad system for someone like me who likes to make tons of bets but doesn't have the bankroll to handle the volatile downswings of riding nothing but the pass line.
Anyone try anything like that? Any huge mathematical errors with doing this?
Ever since I learned to play I've always been a right bettor. I know that the dark side has better odds, but the thought of betting against the rest of the table just rubs me the wrong way.
My downfall playing craps is that I love action. I can't help but talking myself into placing just one more come bet. When the bankroll gets small I start placing the 6 and 8 (which aren't too bad) or betting sucker bets just so I can have more bets on the table. Of course that is great when you have someone who can't throw a seven, but those disasters where you get all six numbers working for you and then you seven out, and you watch all of those numbers come down always really sting. For somebody like me, who plays without too big of a bankroll, if you're betting $2 pass/come and $10 odds on everything, that's $72 coming down with just one roll.
I've been experimenting with a new "system" (meaning a method of betting... I know I can't change the house edge) making the pass line and then DC bets. For example, I'll play $2 pass with $10 or $20 odds and then place a $2 DC bet. If I establish a DC point, I'll lay whatever it takes to win $10.
There are a few things I like about this idea:
1. You get to bet the pass and play with the shooter and the table. Hitting points is still how this system makes you money.
2. The big payoff is still kinda in play... it's a lot of fun when you have the DC going all the way across, hit your point, and then roll a 7 on the come-out.
3. You never lose everything at once. My worst possible one-roll loss is $24 (establish a point, bet $20 odds, place a DC, roll a 7).
4. ACTION! You get a lot of bets working without too much of it being risked at one time.
5. Always uses the bets with the lowest HE.
Obviously the MONSTER ROLL (which is what got all of us hooked on this damn game) is no longer really in play. That stuff of legend when the shooter just can't make 'em turn up 7 and you're pulling in $30 every time they roll the dice. That is definitely a huge disadvantage. And it makes it even worse that the monster roll is a killer for me using this system. Really sucks constantly shelling out another $22 when the shooter keeps hitting 4s and 10s over and over and over.
I'm not a statistics guy, but it seems that this system is a little more level. While testing this out, it's pretty common that I make a ton of bets, and by the time it's all over I'm up or down less than $20. Might not be a bad system for someone like me who likes to make tons of bets but doesn't have the bankroll to handle the volatile downswings of riding nothing but the pass line.
Anyone try anything like that? Any huge mathematical errors with doing this?
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:05:28 AM
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First, welcome and let me thank you on behalf of (most) everyone here for stating you understand you can't change the house edge. For someone who likes to be in action that system doesn't seem half bad. You understand you're not going to get monster payouts but will also avoid the associated monster losses. What you're doing is lowering your variance. Your edge is your edge, however you will win and lose smaller amounts than you were before. This is a form of hedging but doesn't violate the Wizard's "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets." rule since you're doing it on a low edge bet.
I also want to state how much I feel for you since I tend to play $5/25 pass, a come bet each time with max odds, and $27 across. I know very well the dangers of wanting to be in action.
I also want to state how much I feel for you since I tend to play $5/25 pass, a come bet each time with max odds, and $27 across. I know very well the dangers of wanting to be in action.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:22:57 AM
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I guess it is a quasi-hedge system, but no more so than a come bet is hedging your pass line bet (I don't think).
I figured that this was lowering the variance, but since I have no experience in statistics since I was a sophomore in college I didn't want to mention that part of it and look like a moron if that wasn't true.
I figured that this was lowering the variance, but since I have no experience in statistics since I was a sophomore in college I didn't want to mention that part of it and look like a moron if that wasn't true.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:36:13 AM
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It confuses the crew often but I used to do a PassLine and 2 ComeBets followed by a two Don'tCome bets on the theory most rolls fall somewhere between 2rolls and MonsterRolls. So I just try to take a slice of that "middle" ... it doesn't always work though.
February 22nd, 2012 at 4:50:55 PM
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Sounds fine to me. You know what you are doing.
Ugh. I had to listen to a system player on the bus ride home for 1.5 hours today. I tried to explain that it doesn't work, but they just don't want to listen. He showed me a graph he plotted of constant upward progress. "Right now I am betting $5, but when I hit $4,000 I am going to start betting $10 and $15 for a $25/hour win rate." Uh, sorry, this is not the Population of India; it does not keep consistently going up.
At least didn't argue and seemed to know what he was doing, but the only way to learn is by losing.
Ugh. I had to listen to a system player on the bus ride home for 1.5 hours today. I tried to explain that it doesn't work, but they just don't want to listen. He showed me a graph he plotted of constant upward progress. "Right now I am betting $5, but when I hit $4,000 I am going to start betting $10 and $15 for a $25/hour win rate." Uh, sorry, this is not the Population of India; it does not keep consistently going up.
At least didn't argue and seemed to know what he was doing, but the only way to learn is by losing.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
February 23rd, 2012 at 12:35:49 PM
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Fun twist:
When I get lots of numbers going on the DC and then hit the point, I press all of my DC odds on the come out. Hit that seven and win $120! You need a competent dealer and/or a table that isn't too crowded. If the dealer knows what he's doing, you can do it pretty easily. Here is how I've done it:
If I have several DC numbers going, I don't take the time to do the math on everything. I just drop a black chip on the table and say that I want to double all of my DC odds on the come out only and the dealer will call "bet" (like they would if I got a bet out after the dice had moved). If the seven hits, he pays me double what my odds are on each of my DC bets. If a number hits that I have a DC bet on, I just pay him what I owe out of the rack (so if I have a 4 working and the come out is a 4, I pay him $20 out of the rack) and then I pick up the black chip. Since I'm only pressing for the one roll, I find this is a lot easier than having the dealer put the bets up and take them down again and the dealers/box have been cool with it.
When I get lots of numbers going on the DC and then hit the point, I press all of my DC odds on the come out. Hit that seven and win $120! You need a competent dealer and/or a table that isn't too crowded. If the dealer knows what he's doing, you can do it pretty easily. Here is how I've done it:
If I have several DC numbers going, I don't take the time to do the math on everything. I just drop a black chip on the table and say that I want to double all of my DC odds on the come out only and the dealer will call "bet" (like they would if I got a bet out after the dice had moved). If the seven hits, he pays me double what my odds are on each of my DC bets. If a number hits that I have a DC bet on, I just pay him what I owe out of the rack (so if I have a 4 working and the come out is a 4, I pay him $20 out of the rack) and then I pick up the black chip. Since I'm only pressing for the one roll, I find this is a lot easier than having the dealer put the bets up and take them down again and the dealers/box have been cool with it.
February 23rd, 2012 at 1:09:51 PM
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Quote: bagger05
I've been experimenting with a new "system" (meaning a method of betting...)
Hmmmm, this reminds me of another thread....can't remember which one.
Quote:For example, I'll play $2 pass with $10 or $20 odds and then place a $2 DC bet. If I establish a DC point, I'll lay whatever it takes to win $10.
Not a bad way to play. No stupid hop bets, no stupid horn bets, no stupid field bets. Nothing wrong with 3-4 bets in action per roll, if they are low-er house edge bets.
Quote:Might not be a bad system for someone like me who likes to make tons of bets but doesn't have the bankroll to handle the volatile downswings of riding nothing but the pass line.
This makes no sense. If you wanted to stay away from variance swings......you should be betting less bets per round, regardless of bankroll.
Not bad. Have fun and good luck! And welcome to the coolest forum on the block.
